Exit Raylen Wilson
After trending this way for months, LB Raylen Wilson, Michigan's top-ranked recruit in its 2023 class, reopened his recruitment.
Respect my decision! @Hayesfawcett3 pic.twitter.com/4hlCinBMq1
— Raylen Wilson (@WilsonRaylen) June 29, 2022
This is a rough, if not totally unexpected blow to a class that's been struggling to regain momentum since Harbaugh interviewed with the Vikings, and lost both coordinators and Courtney Morgan. It's especially rough for LBs coach George Helow, who specializes in the Jacksonville area.
Whether it's Michigan fumbling the ramp-up to an NIL age, recent staff turnover, the coach trying to bail for the NFL, recruits' personal preferences, cascading negative momentum from clanging what should have been a slam dunk anchor for the class after clanging another for the next one, or a combination of these things, Harbaugh should now be very uncomfortable about the state of his recruiting department.
Technically by mid-June last year they were in similar shape, but that program had Will Johnson committed and many of its successes after hinged on Morgan, Gattis, and luck. They also had a turnaround season to help. Hopefully the reigning Big Ten Champions have a better plan than synergistic newspeak to turn things around this time, because for reigning champions this feels pretty bleak.
Is he gone gone? Cuz the way his tweet is worded sounds like he wouldn't be against coming back into the fold provided some things change. Am I just being too hopeful?
You're too hopeful
How many times do decommits recommit? Dax is sui generis and Aubrey Solomon is the exception that proves the rule.
This class can still recover somewhat with some good players coming on board but no sugarcoating it it’s going to be a major disappointment.
We're literally coming off a Big 10 championship and a playoff appearance and the best win probably in most of our lifetimes. Let's not fall into BPONE. We've lost big recruits before, we've had low-ranked classes before. In June of 2022, there is no other program I'd rather be a fan of.
It is because of all those things that this has been such a huge disappointment. You'd expect a team coming off what this team did last year to have a ton of recruiting momentum and yet we don't.
Clearly Harbaugh's dalliance with the NFL and losing both coordinators means more to these kids than winning the B1G and making the playoffs.
I don’t think it’s that clear. If that truly impacted Raylen, then he would have left months ago.
This could very well be an issue our NIL game.
If that truly impacted Raylen, then he would have left months ago.
Sam Webb has been essentially saying for months that Wilson's commitment wasn't solid. Unless/until Wilson himself gives reasons for his decommitment—and he's not likely to, at least publicly—we're left with speculation.
Wilson took his official visit to Georgia on June 3.
“It was great,” Wilson told 247Sports National Director of Recruiting Steve Wiltfong. “The main highlights of this visit was the things UGA brings to the table after football is over with the 40-year plan.
“The stability of the main staff like Coach Smart. Has no interest in the NFL jobs because he’s home.”
I agree that NIL likely contributes to Wilson looking at other options (UGA most likely) but this quote basically says his decision is just as much about Harbaugh's NFL pursuit and the turnover of Michigan's coaching staff.
Precisely. We just don’t know to sure in this case.
Uh I don’t know about you, but that quote is pretty on the nose to me. He’s explicitly saying he likes UGA because their coach “has no interest in NFL jobs” and “is home”.
Yeah, if you want to recruit well you had better either be throwing around money or have built strong relationships (and preferably both). Because of the staff turnover/NFL bullshit and “doing NIL the right way,” we are offering neither. It isn’t a death knell for the program, but it sure creates some serious headwinds in the short run.
It also gives momentum to programs like MSU, like we did with the RichRod years.
That's school pride talking, not sense IMO. It's not just this prospect, the class is sub-par even if we were not coming off this great season. This is not good, and there's no talking that away. For right now at least.
Seth, I'm curious about losing CJ as a "clanging" (assuming that who you are referring to). It's an objective failure but it seems like he really wanted to hang out his shingle. I don't know the inside baseball as much as you do but my sense is that once he got national interest there really wasn't much Michigan could do to bring him in.
Now it is definitely true that at a certain point that losing so many battles is less about the unfavorability of one or another and more that you're just losing the war
CJ is in the Class of 2024, I believe he was referring to Dante Moore.
Both were clangs. One school wasn't going to get both, so ND got ahead for both which helped them pressure Carr to commit so early.
Just for shits and giggles I'd like a former UM player whose son has received a Michigan offer say "I'm not going to be like that turncoat traitor Mike Boren—you're going to Michigan and that's the end of the discussion."
Was he really a traitor ? For a Ohio player to come here, I think you vastly underestimate how much flak the family will take back home, so naturally, concessions are to be made. Boren had a deal with Lloyd, to be able to go home many weekends to work the family snowplow business. That was the deal. RR would not honor it. At least, that is how I heard it.
That doesn't make sense. We get 1, maybe 2 snowstorms per year that require snow removal and 1-2 ice storms per year.
its probably happened more than you think. we only hear/care about the ones that don't do it.
If you were the coach, would you want a kid to commit to your school because he felt pressured to do so?
Sheesh this class is bad. Recruiting is pretty shitty, but I figured with all these younger coaches would be better at recruiting. Best season we'll probably have in a while, and our recruiting is bad. It just really sucks that this offseason has sucked a ton of the joy out of the season.
way to shit on the kids who are committed to playing for the school you root for JFC
Agree with the young recruiter type coaches. Another tell will be if some or a lot leave after this year. If there is no support in recruiting, they'll probably want to go somewhere they can get the kids they are recruiting before the bottom falls out at UM.
But I was told by the commenters on this board that Harbaugh trying to leave for any nfl job was not a big deal.
Don’t worry, they’ll also tell you it’s only June and to relax on recruiting. UM has a bunch of silent commitments and they’ll pull in a top class.
If you read that properly, it's at least three things:
1. Harbaugh NFL
2. Coordinators / Courtney Morgan Leaving
3. NIL/Pay to Play
Hard to really overcome all three. It's sad and it sucks. I expected a lot more from Michigan in at least finding the middle instead of the bottom.
People are overthinking this - 17 year old kids are being offered signing bonuses that are life changing amounts of money. Michigan is offering an opportunity to make money in a few years if you are able to produce on the field.
If you were looking for a new job and one company offered you a $100k signing bonus plus guaranteed salary / bonus while the next one offered you nothing guaranteed but good opportunities if you perform well - which job would you take?
It sucks that college football has become "transactional" but these kids have a market value and you can't expect them to forego that opportunity. Sure there is a chance for them to make millions down the road but that is very uncertain given injury risk plus a multitude of other factors.
Don't get me wrong, Harbaugh's NFL dalliance and the coordinators certainly haven't helped but the last offseason had much more turmoil and the recruiting class turned out fine. Remember that Will Smith was an OSU lean at one point.
The more comments I read on here about NIL and these baseless crazy accusations of what other schools are doing, the more I think people have no clue how NIL works, or why it is successful for other schools. I'll break it down very easy for why a school like OSU is succeeding:
1. They don't shotgun spray 5 and high 4 star offers. They literally have passed offering guys because of conversations that have led them to believe that they are about money, or don't fit for whatever other reason.
2. The kids they recruit want to be in the NFL. I know everyone is so caught up in NIL money, but it's chump change compared to a NFL contract. OSU is selling the kids on the chance to get to that level. And they are also up front that if the path isn't there, that they will help them moving forward from there.
3. They do not offer "signing bonuses". They simply saw the NIL stuff coming and got ahead of it. They set up a team designed to educate the kids on how they can make money. They do not facilitate payments. Day and Gene Smith have been very outspoken about this, they lead football/program first, and then simply show recruits what is possible. The recruits don't need a signing bonus to want to be at OSU. I mean I have yet to read of any recruit at any school receiving a signing bonus before signing with the school. I think that's coming from the minds of people that don't understand how NIL works.
Harbaugh is more of your problem than NIL deals. That killed your momentum coming off of last season more than anything else, no matter if people like to admit it or not. Most kids are not receiving millions in NIL deals. In fact, the vast majority of major college football players are not getting rich while in college. Harbaugh literally tried to leave for the NFL. Both of his coordinators that got the team to where they did last season bolted. Harbaugh is a quirky guy to begin with, and the negative recruiting that had been happening before he tried to leave was basically proven true when he did. Nobody wants to send their kid with possible NFL potential to an unstable environment like that. I know you guys all know the coaches that have backfilled spots, you believe Harbaugh when he says he is done with the NFL, but you are UM fans. You think the 18 year old high 4 star kid from FL believes him? You think they know who the coaches are that filled the coordinator roles to have enough confidence that they will be developed enough to make it to the next level? They do not.
Then you add all that together with the fact that NIL is not being used as a tool by UM, that's why you are having issues. You don't need to offer signing bonuses (again, I have never ever heard this, please send me a legitimate link to anyone this has ever happened to), you just need to say hey, we have the resources. If you come play at UM, you will have NIL opportunities just like everywhere else. That's not illegal. That's not against the rules. That's literally playing within the rules. You have players getting paid on NIL deals currently. So you are playing within the rules. But to try to demonize every other school and make shit up about what they are doing to feel better is not helpful. The difference between UM and OSU is one says yes we understand the value of what NIL can bring you so we will provide help to navigate options so you make the right decision, while the other says nothing and just expects the kids to figure it out themselves. The other schools aren't the problem. It's not like UM has gone no NIL....again, kids are being paid right now on NIL deals at UM.
If you think kids aren't receiving serious money to sign then you are mistaken. The playing field is different. The SEC, OSU, and a select other schools place a premium on signing and retaining recruits.
Another problem: we need to pay our assistant coaches to retain them. Losing Gattis and Morgan were severe blows. You have kids getting millions and these proven coaches are making 700k and less.
I think you have an inflated idea of the money out there in your head. Do a little research, OSU had a total of $2.98 Million made in NIL deals from July 1st when it went in effect through the beginning of this year. That $2.98 Million was spread throughout 608 NIL opportunities and included 220 student-athletes.
You are acting like every 4* and up is getting a $100k signing bonus and $5M per year.
Day did explicitly say that he needs $13M to keep his players. Not the water polo team. His players on the football team. And if that amount is needed to keep the guys on the team, then it means that it is conditioned on them staying at OSU. So even if you assumed that all ~130 kids on the team are getting an even amount, that comes out to $100K per player. And if you are assuming that the top kids are not getting paid more than the walk-ons, you are highly delusional. So yeah some kids are probably going to be highly paid, and it looks like Day and OSU are making sure it happens. If it didn't benefit the program, they wouldn't be doing it.
I just gave you actual numbers of what has happened. Day did not say he needed $13M to keep the current roster. He said that he estimates that this is what it would take to maintain an elite football team. This was based off of projections that are broken down by how much he projects the market to be for specific positions. He isn't some evil mastermind, he gave a number that he estimates will be what is needed to keep the program where they are in the NIL era. People should be less worried about what he IS doing and more worried that their schools are not doing the same research to try to navigate the new era.
Yeah right, Day went public with the info as a public service, in the name of research.
He stated it publicly to put pressure on the donors (I mean, "the businesses interested in paying for the NIL rights, who are certainly not invested in keeping the players at OSU"), and to let the top players know they would be well compensated. It was smart of him to do so, but let's not pretend that wasn't exactly what he was doing. If Michigan wants to recruit in the new landscape, we will have to do the same.
OSU wants to win the CFP at any cost, and Michigan is still trying to win at a game that no longer exists.
ya, it's not about the money now. though i think recently some coach said they needed about $20 million to keep the current roster in tact.
Saying "I think" and throwing a number way over what the number was, and putting it in a context that it is to keep the roster in tact...ok.
I agree with this generally, except for the pollyannish suggestion that OSU isn't offering inducements, either directly or indirectly. The program's history would suggest otherwise, and I'm sure time will prove that Buckeyes are getting paid to sign, in one way or another. There's just no way a football factory like OSU is gonna take the highest road.
Will Smith was an OSU lean?!
He apparently was until he got slap-happy.
Will Smith Jr. the football player, his dad played at OSU and for the Saints. Will Smith Sr. died of a gun shot after a traffic accident.
It wouldn't have been a big deal if he hadn't lost both of his coordinators and his recruiting director, but he came back with none of the above. These are the guys building the relationships and all of them left for various reasons.
That's the primary reason this class probably won't be up to our norm.
It's all NIL! He knows other kids are getting big bucks for signing with teams. Something Michigan refuses to do. I'm sure a few schools contacted him and offered him NIL bucks to sign with them.
Hold me TomVH
If HARBAUGH is unable to change NIL, assuming his transformational not transactional is rhetoric forced by higher ups, he will resign from the HC post at the end of the season.
I still believe this is much more than just NIL. HARBAUGH has too much baggage at this point.
Also, didn’t HARBAUGH say something in the effect that now is the time for recruiting? What a joke.
I haven’t been a big Harbaugh supporter, but I’m ok with his NIL stance. I’d rather be UofM and be mediocre than be OSU professional football. Im not opposed to the idea of NIL, but this current system of no rules, no regulation, is absurd. Somehow we went from a ridiculously restrictive NCAA rules situation to one with less rules and regulations than the NFL. Someone needs to figure out NIL fast to level the playing field across the country. I don’t care what the salary cap is, just pick a number and require all schools to stay under it. It’s hard to fathom that college has become more corrupt than all the professional leagues in the country.
Thank you, voice of reason. I too am firmly in the pro-NIL camp. Players deserve to profit of their names. But this doesn't mean there should be a totally unregulated, wild west market. It's absurd. The BCS (or whatever it's now called) needs to set up firm parameters, including heavy penalties for scofflaws, via a governing body/official akin to an NBA/MLB commissioner. Pro teams have salary caps; college teams can have caps. All the so-called "collectives" need to be regulated and capped and transparent. It's not that hard. Pro leagues do all of this and manage to mostly get teams to play by the rules. Chaos will breed more chaos, and that's bad for CFB's longterm interests.
Of course they should be able to benefit from their NIL. We live in a market-based economy. But what just about every school is doing is pay-to-play. They can call it NIL, but everyone knows it is not. If you cap that, the Alabamas and OSUs of the world will just go back to their underground payments. It's a bit of a no-win.
It will also be interesting to see what the team dynamics look like going forward. We probably are not far off from no-shows at spring and fall camps until their contract demands are met. We already saw the beginning of it with players skipping bowl games. Now it will be money as much as injury risk. It has been a semi-pro league for a while, but now the fig leaf has been removed.
It is good to spread the wealth around to the kids taking the physical beating, but it is all changing so fast that it can't help but change the nature of the sport.
If you cap that, the Alabamas and OSUs of the world will just go back to their underground payments
Maybe, but you still have to try. Somehow the NFL has a system that creates a decent amount of equality. That’s what is suddenly making the NFL a much more attractive option for peoples football watching needs.
This is going to be the worst class Michigan has had since RichRod. A combination of factors has blown this class up. Michigan can survive a poor class, but they really need to hit in ‘24.
Huge, huge disappointment. No sugarcoating that.
Michigan is going to overhaul the offensive recruiting in particular. Defense seems okay even with Wilson’s departure which isn’t unexpected. Southern recruits are hard to keep.
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