carter smith
2025 recruiting
kirk campbell
bryce underwood
[Bishop Verot HS]

Carter Smith Has Committed To Michigan Comment Count

Alex.Drain November 14th, 2023 at 1:20 PM

Michigan got a commitment today from 2025 4* QB Carter Smith: 

The main reaction to this news has been "WHAT ABOUT BRYCE UNDERWOOD?" so let's address that quickly: all the insiders are united that Michigan's pursuit of Underwood will go on but Kirk Campbell has made it clear that he is not going the all-eggs-in-one-basket route for 2025 QBs by taking Smith's commitment. Michigan famously tried that strategy with 2023 5* in-stater Dante Moore, which backfired spectacularly when Moore spurned Michigan for Oregon (later flipping to UCLA) and left the Wolverines empty-handed. They took Kendrick Bell, Ronnie's Who Dat 3* brother, as their "quarterback" but the chance Bell plays a snap for Michigan at QB is low. For all intents and purposes, Michigan did not take a QB in 2023 and the result of that decision is why the team could have to decide between a true freshman and a transfer at QB next season.

Campbell decided to learn from Matt Weiss' errors in the 2023 cycle and found a match in Smith, a recruitment that escalated quickly due to significant interest from both parties. Michigan will continue to recruit Underwood, but cannot take any chances with a recruit as high profile as him. If you have another guy you like who wants to be in your program, you should take him when you have the chance. If Underwood wants to join the class and you end up with a 2021 OSU style class with two QBs (the Bucks got Quinn Ewers and Kyle McCord), the more the merrier. If he doesn't, you're still in a good spot. 

And a good spot they are. Smith should not be overlooked. If Underwood were a native Texan, everyone would be excited about Carter Smith, a 6'3" signal-caller from Bishop Verot HS in Fort Myers, FL. He is On3 and ESPN's #8 ranked QB nationally, ranked near the top 100 in the former. 247 and Rivals are a bit lower at this point in time but obviously there is a LONG way to go. The On3 consensus ranks him 223rd overall nationally and the 247 Composite has him 213th. With offers from such schools as Texas A&M, PSU, Ole Miss, FSU, Florida, and Miami, no one can claim Smith is an outright bargain bin QB. A full Hello will follow at some point, but Smith appears to be a bit of an opposite of Jadyn Davis, less developed/poised as a passer and more raw overall, but taller, more athletic, and with higher upside (Smith is more JJ, so to speak). If they were to be the 2024 and 2025 QBs Michigan takes, they could be effective contrasts with each other. 

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Comments

schreibee

November 14th, 2023 at 1:43 PM ^

Welcome Carter! Go Blue! Really excited with adding a player of your talents to the team!

Now I'll ask "But what about Bryce?!"

If yet another local kid with years of familiarity with both UM & the program goes elsewhere, doesn't the question "what's up?" have to be on the table? 

And as for not "putting all your eggs in 1 basket" - Does the "basket" turn into a pumpkin on (I believe) Jan. 6 if Bryce commits elsewhere? 

Joined: 11/02/2009

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DennisFranklinDaMan

November 14th, 2023 at 1:49 PM ^

I'm still not sure games like Penn State make us particularly attractive to 5* quarterback and wide receiver recruits. But I'll choose winning with an unparalleled ground game any day of the week over great stats but an inconsistent record with a stud. 

In other words — happy to get the players who want to come to Michigan, and I trust this coaching staff to find ones that fit well into their scheme.

This is good news. Go Blue!

Joined: 01/23/2021

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schreibee

November 14th, 2023 at 2:00 PM ^

Yeah but - JJ threw for 300+, multiple TDs just a week earlier.

Michigan will always be run heavy with Harbaugh (and obviously Sherrone as well) running the offense. 

But they've shown a willingness this season to be more flexible & take what the D gives. JJ was highly featured prior to psu.

I'm thinking NIL is more of a factor than pass/run balance? 

Joined: 11/02/2009

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bronxblue

November 14th, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^

I don't want to make too big a deal about it either way but (a) some kids just do want to play elsewhere, and (b) UM's offensive approach isn't going to put up huge numbers and until one of UM's QBs gets drafted it'll hold them back a bit.  UCLA hasn't been great but they've placed 3 QBs in the NFL compared to one (Rudock) for UM since Harbaugh arrived.  LSU's got Daniels putting up crazy numbers despite being, objectively, a somewhat limited QB.  That's going to be appealing to guys.

Now, do I think Dante Moore may regret going to UCLA?  Sure - he's struggled basically all year and I don't see Chip Kelly turning that ship around to where they're competing for a title or even a conference crown, but then he'll likely start looking around for a transfer spot and then maybe UM gets back into it.  Underwood is similarly talented and I think Brian Kelly is a better QB developer than Chip is, but there's always a risk you wash out. 

But UM's approach at QB isn't going to appeal to a guy who wants to put up big numbers, and while I think it's cliche to get into "team wins" over individual accomplishments, that's sort of the calculus for some kids.  Like, what happened in the 2nd half against PSU is going to win you the game but also not something I expect most young QBs who want to put up heroic numbers would expect.  So yeah, put either of the Kelly's in that spot in Happy Valley and my guess is they try to unleash their QBs and see if they can out-athlete PSU and put up big numbers.  Maybe that works, or maybe they give up a pick-six or a strip-sack and lose badly.  But those are different approaches to the role of the QB and UM can only sell what they have to willing buyers.

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Derek

November 14th, 2023 at 2:57 PM ^

I think Brian Kelly is a better QB developer than Chip is

What's an example of Brian Kelly's QB development prowess? Chip had some Heisman-caliber QBs with 3-star talent, so I assume I'm missing some obvious hits here with the 4/5-star talent he's had to work with.*

* Beyond Jayden Daniels, who's a fifth-year starter playing basically the same game as his freshman year.

Joined: 06/30/2008

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MGolem

November 14th, 2023 at 3:02 PM ^

I was thinking something similar about Dante Moore - he could definitely look around after the season and IF JJ leaves it will be as a first rounder. Moore could step right in and play in an offense that actually nurtures what he is good at. UCLA was never winning big with a true freshman QB and they shouldn’t have tried. Now they have benched him and I am sure he is not happy about that. Chip Kelly’s offense has a lot of bells and whistles but does it actually protect the QB with the running game and O line? Come back Moore. We will forgive you. 

Joined: 10/14/2010

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mackbru

November 15th, 2023 at 12:36 AM ^

I’ve seen Moore a few times this year. He’s definitely got talent and potential, but he made a lot of mistakes and lacked a certain something. He played like a true freshman, but didn’t look anything like a Caleb Williams type generational talent. He was pegged as similar. That’s not realistic. But he could have a good career on the right team. 

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schreibee

November 14th, 2023 at 3:09 PM ^

Care to elaborate quail? 

Some here say top echelon QBs won't be attracted to Michigan because of our general run-first preference (and even suggested the psu gameplan killed our chances with Bryce).

I lean towards that having an influence, but refusal to pay "NIL" upfront having a far greater one.

Those of us who love Michigan (and that's >99% of Mgoblog readers, BuckeyeChuck) feel in our hearts that the success the team has had these past 3 seasons should have kids lining up to play here. We can't imagine anything another program would offer is more attractive. 

You seem to feel the answer is obvious, quail? So which?

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schreibee

November 14th, 2023 at 7:51 PM ^

It was hardly "combative" on any level, but I'll take your answer to say you don't care to elaborate. 

Well, I listed a few other theories being bandied about on the board. Without you elaborating on yours, the rest of us will attach whichever version we wish to your cryptic statement that the reason Moore, Carr & possibly Underwood are leaving the area rather than play for Michigan is "apparent". 

Or waitaminnit... are you saying "a parent" is the reason, but being low key about it? 🤔

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AWAS

November 14th, 2023 at 3:41 PM ^

The idea that a local kid should only choose the local program is provincial and unsophisticated.  I would suggest that reeling in the local kid is a harder sell, not an easier effort.  But then again, how many of us really know what is important to an 18 year old recruit?

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wolverinestuckinEL

November 14th, 2023 at 6:33 PM ^

Local kids have likely been to football camps at Michigan, their head coaches likely have affinity for the program (or dispise it I suppose), they work out with Devin Gardner.  I don't see how that is unsophisticated.  A college program builds roots with is alum, coaching influence, etc and those roots are going to not have as much of a national reach. 

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m9tt

November 14th, 2023 at 2:20 PM ^

This is going to sound harsh (especially on a "Hello" post), but I don't believe Smith is enough of a talent to accept his commitment now versus slow-playing him for a few weeks until you get an answer or strong feeling from Underwood... Which – if you read between the lines – means they probably already have their answer regarding Bryce.

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bronxblue

November 14th, 2023 at 2:33 PM ^

I get your vibe but I also believe you can't quite slow play guys anymore, or at least you have to be careful because QBs in particular want to commit and he's got options.  Even if you want to argue about how committable some of those offers are, there's enough big-name programs there that he'd be the #1 QB pick for a number of top-tier programs.  And if you slow-play him for a couple of weeks there's a good chance he commits elsewhere and then you're definitely into your deep bag trying to pull someone else.

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m9tt

November 14th, 2023 at 2:41 PM ^

I understand and agree with you and I have no problem with Michigan taking his commitment here and now; I just think there's a difference between slow-playing a prospect in August when you're gonna have to stall for months, vs mid-November when you're in season and your #1 guy will (hopefully) be on campus in two weeks and then committing a month after that. 

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schreibee

November 14th, 2023 at 3:47 PM ^

I believe the biggest reason that the staff took this commitment now is because as of this day Bryce hasn't even committed to coming for the osu game. 

For me that speaks volumes. If he isn't excited about that game, he's not excited about Michigan. 

But I still don't know that a QB not even ranked on half the services is a player you had to take on Nov. 14. That's all...🤷‍♂️

Joined: 11/02/2009

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San Diego Mick

November 14th, 2023 at 2:03 PM ^

Watched his film, very athletic. The video was hard to get a read on his throwing motion but I don't get the arm is not as strong comments, anyone who can throw a baseball at 90+ mph, has a strong arm.

This is a great get, if Underwood wants to compete, then he'll commit to us too.

 

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m9tt

November 14th, 2023 at 2:14 PM ^

He can throw "hard" in the short-to-intermediary levels of the field (like a pitch), but he doesn't have the power to launch the ball downfield (every throw 30+ yards down the field on his film lacks oomph and his mechanics are really putting a lot of effort into those throws). 

The hope would be that with improved footwork (generating any sort of consistent base would help) and added strength as he grows, he'll become adequate outside the numbers or down the field.... think Sean Clifford or Tate McSorley from PSU. 

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njvictor

November 14th, 2023 at 2:04 PM ^

I was initially slightly underwhelmed by his arm talent, but this kid's grit and athleticism have won me over. Not to mention, if you're willing to commit to Michigan right now, then you're the type of player I want. He's a baseball and football kid and he seems like a Harbaugh recruit for sure

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RealElonMusk

November 14th, 2023 at 2:11 PM ^

Like him, his highlight film looks a lot like JJ!   Hopefully they can work on his throw release point-  which is a bit low.   

Much prefer an athletic QB like Carter who can make throws on the run and run the ball, I don't think the statue pocket passer works in college football anymore (really hasn't worked since the 90s).

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DonAZ

November 14th, 2023 at 2:32 PM ^

This is what they said on the podcast the other day -- the QB that can't effectively get out of the pocket and operate there is a thing of the past.  That's what makes J.J. so special -- he can break the pocket, keep his eyes downfield, and hit receivers.  I wonder how Carter rates on this measure?

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