carter smith
Good afternoon national champs. The offseason is upon us, which means it's time to have a recruiting board.
What this is: This is our sticky recruiting board for 2025. When Alex or I finish a major update (happens quarterly-ish), it will be reposted to the top of the site. Otherwise it will be under the "Useful Stuff" tab.
The Guys:
Icon | Name | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Blue | Player is either a verbal or is expected to be one sooner or later. Players with this designation are 65%+ to be Michigan commits. |
| Happy Teeth | Players who have Michigan in a small leading group or have Michigan as a tenuous favorite. Should be regarded as a good shot, not a slam dunk. |
| Data | Either no opinion or Michigan is one of a fairly even group of chasing schools. Players in this category maintain no leader or change their leader frequently. The default category for players that we don't know much about yet. |
| Nefarious Eduardo | Player is a longshot. Either they've declared someone else a leader publicly, popular opinion holds that they're likely to go to another school, or Michigan's taking a swing . |
| Hopeful Hank | Cousin of Sad Josh. Category of player without strong competition but legitimate Michigan interest. |
| Sad Josh | The genre of player with unrequited interest in Michigan. Unlikely to receive offers; most will eventually fade off the list and go to Duke or Michigan State or something. |
| Tommy Torpor | Player Michigan wanted, but who told Michigan he's going elsewhere, or they got someone else, so they've cut off their pursuit. |
Players are ordered by our best guess at their priority level and likelihood of coming. Schools listed are prioritized by threat, with those in parentheses an as-yet unreciprocated favorite.
A Note on Premium Info: No illicit sharing of said material will appear on this site. Players are listed with interested schools in their profiles; this information is public. Commitments are by definition public. If you want a clearer picture than what can be gleaned from free browsing, subscribe to the services.
A Note on Needs and Scholarship Numbers: We're largely ignoring the 85-man limit these days because NIL can cover the cost of attendance for any player, e.g. a transfer, not subject to the rules governing scholarships for recruits who go through the process (see "blueshirting"). Expect Michigan's class to be between 23 and 28 players as usual.
[AFTER THE JUMP: Let's restart.]
Michigan's got a few 2025 commits that have yet to receive Hellos and today we start with the most star-studded one, 4* QB Carter Smith. Lost in all the fanfare surrounding Michigan's failed pursuit of mega QB prospect Bryce Underwood is the fact that the Wolverines already picked up a commitment from a pretty highly regarded QB in Smith, who joined the '25 class in November. Today we will get to know a potential QB Of The Future.
GURU RATINGS
|
RATINGS BY SITE |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
|
247: 6'3/180 |
On3: 6'3/180 |
Rivals: 6'3/197 |
ESPN: 6'3/185 |
| 3*, 89, NR Ovr #17 QB, #39 FL |
4*, 92, #112 Ovr #9 QB, #17 FL |
4*, 5.9, #56 Ovr #2 DUAL, #10 FL |
4*, 80, #208 Ovr #8 PRO, #30 FL |
| 4.00 | 4.42 | 4.60 | 4.15 |
|
COMPOSITE RANKINGS |
|||
|
247 Composite |
On3 Consensus |
MGoBlog |
|
| 4*, 0.9404, #148 Ovr #10 QB, #24 FL |
4*, 91.73, #162 Ovr #11 QB, #24 FL |
4*, #212/804 Ovr #17/43 QBs since '90 |
|
| 4.40 | 4.17 | 4.31 | |
Smith is a legitimate 4* to three of the four services and is either top 100 or borderline top 100 to Rivals and On3. The Rivals ranking is rather remarkable, Smith being bumped up from unranked to top 60 nationally in one national rankings update. The negative site on Smith is 247, pegging Smith as a 3* presently, but even that ranking is damn close to being a 4*. Based on Seth's 5 star scale, it is exactly one, 4.00. The consensus rankings thus have Smith a good bit higher, with the 247 Composite bordering on 4.5* status. Based on Seth's database, Smith is 17th out of 43 QBs that Michigan has recruited since 1990 in terms of rankings. Not too bad!
[AFTER THE JUMP: do you remember JJ McCarthy?]
Michigan got a commitment today from 2025 4* QB Carter Smith:
Grateful to have this opportunity! @Hayesfawcett3 @CoachKCampbell @CoachRodeBV @Coach_SMoore @CoachVillegasBV @CoachJim4UM pic.twitter.com/VhdtBglMoM
— Carter Smith (@_CarterSmith9) November 14, 2023
The main reaction to this news has been "WHAT ABOUT BRYCE UNDERWOOD?" so let's address that quickly: all the insiders are united that Michigan's pursuit of Underwood will go on but Kirk Campbell has made it clear that he is not going the all-eggs-in-one-basket route for 2025 QBs by taking Smith's commitment. Michigan famously tried that strategy with 2023 5* in-stater Dante Moore, which backfired spectacularly when Moore spurned Michigan for Oregon (later flipping to UCLA) and left the Wolverines empty-handed. They took Kendrick Bell, Ronnie's Who Dat 3* brother, as their "quarterback" but the chance Bell plays a snap for Michigan at QB is low. For all intents and purposes, Michigan did not take a QB in 2023 and the result of that decision is why the team could have to decide between a true freshman and a transfer at QB next season.
Campbell decided to learn from Matt Weiss' errors in the 2023 cycle and found a match in Smith, a recruitment that escalated quickly due to significant interest from both parties. Michigan will continue to recruit Underwood, but cannot take any chances with a recruit as high profile as him. If you have another guy you like who wants to be in your program, you should take him when you have the chance. If Underwood wants to join the class and you end up with a 2021 OSU style class with two QBs (the Bucks got Quinn Ewers and Kyle McCord), the more the merrier. If he doesn't, you're still in a good spot.
And a good spot they are. Smith should not be overlooked. If Underwood were a native Texan, everyone would be excited about Carter Smith, a 6'3" signal-caller from Bishop Verot HS in Fort Myers, FL. He is On3 and ESPN's #8 ranked QB nationally, ranked near the top 100 in the former. 247 and Rivals are a bit lower at this point in time but obviously there is a LONG way to go. The On3 consensus ranks him 223rd overall nationally and the 247 Composite has him 213th. With offers from such schools as Texas A&M, PSU, Ole Miss, FSU, Florida, and Miami, no one can claim Smith is an outright bargain bin QB. A full Hello will follow at some point, but Smith appears to be a bit of an opposite of Jadyn Davis, less developed/poised as a passer and more raw overall, but taller, more athletic, and with higher upside (Smith is more JJ, so to speak). If they were to be the 2024 and 2025 QBs Michigan takes, they could be effective contrasts with each other.
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