Basketbullets: Phew Comment Count

Ace
More of this, please. [Patrick Barron]

Before the possibility emerged of John Beilein leaving to coach the Detroit Pistons, everything was falling into place. In Luke Yaklich, Beilein had found the defensive coordinator he long needed to consistently compete not just for Big Ten championships, but national championships. After a most unlikely Final Four run, the Wolverines reloaded with one of the most talented incoming recruiting classes in program history. Charles Matthews announced his return and 2019 blue chip prospect Jalen Wilson committed in rapid succession. More five-star talent looked to be on the horizon.

And then, for the better part of a week, it was up in the air. Sure, Beilein could leave Ann Arbor today as the greatest coach in program history, but—like with so many of his rapidly developed players—his work at Michigan would feel unfinished, not for lack of accomplishment but the distinct possibility of even greater heights.

If fans of any program know that periods of great prosperity must be appreciated in their time, it's Michigan basketball fans. (At least those of a certain age.) In choosing between a great new challenge or conquering an old one, Beilein seemed to take the same perspective. Well, either that or he met Tom Gores. Regardless, he told the Freep's Nick Baumgardner that he chose to pull out of the search when he realized where he wanted to finish his career:

“It became very clear to me where I was meant to finish coaching,” Beilein told the Free Press on Thursday after a speaking engagement in Ann Arbor. “If you followed my career, it was ‘you’ve built this up, you’ve got it right and you leave the program in better shape than you found it.’ And then go and do it again somewhere else.

“I wasn’t offered the (Pistons) job. I was a finalist, but I wasn’t offered the job. And I decided rather than to go through it more, I knew where I needed to be.”

Beilein's contract extension, which The Athletic's Brendan Quinn reports is near completion, should pay him around $4 million per year (up from $3.37M) through the 2022-23 season, which would put him among college basketball's highest-paid coaches. One would expect the assistants will get nice raises, too. Warde Manuel appears to recognize what needs to be done to maintain an elite program.

[Hit THE JUMP for a quick Big Ten outlook, a recruiting update, and more.]

26752631488_8f029258c8_k_0.jpg[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

So, now what? While the early polls don't reflect this, I'd call Michigan the early favorite in the Big Ten. Moe Wagner's early departure hurts, as does the loss of senior starters Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Duncan Robinson, but every contender in the Big Ten suffered major losses. Michigan State, which went 0-2 against their chief rival last year, is down a pair of lottery picks in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Miles Bridges. Purdue turns over their whole starting lineup save Carsen Edwards. Keita Bates-Diop stayed in the draft, which may keep Ohio State from repeating last year's unexpected success.

Maryland went 8-10 in the conference last season and have to replace Kevin Huerter. Indiana is in a similar spot. Any Penn State hopes were dashed when Tony Carr chose to pursue the NBA. Wisconsin went careening in the wrong direction last year; ditto Northwestern and Minnesota. Iowa is a promising young team coming off a 4-14 Big Ten record. There doesn't seem to be a dark horse. This transfer news broke as I was writing this post:

Yes, the Terrapins and Hoosiers have exceptional incoming classes; so does Michigan, and they'll be able to bring along those freshmen at a less frantic pace—unless Iggy Brazdeikis or Brandon Johns prove a dynamic enough scorer to turn Isaiah Livers into a glue guy off the bench, the starting lineup should feature all returning players.

Then you take a step back from the respective rosters and look at who's squeezed the most out of their available talent of late, who's got the best player development going in the conference, who's the most likely to get stronger as the season goes along—to me, it's Michigan, even if some questions linger about shooting. If the big question is about Beilein finding a way to make the offense work, the team is in great shape.

37634723074_4d8cd784ff_k_0.jpg[Campredon]

About that recruiting. It continues. The #27 overall player in the country, IA PG DJ Carton, will visit Ann Arbor on the 28th of this month, per TMI's Josh Henschke. That visit could be the one that sews up this recruitment for Michigan, which holds 10/12 picks on Carton's crystal ball. Carton told 247's Jerry Meyer he plans a mid-August decision after seeing each of his six finalists. Unless, and perhaps even if, another big-time program jumps into the mix, Michigan is sitting in a great spot.


maybe don't watch this

That may not be the end of it, even though Carton would technically take Michigan one over the scholarship limit for now. The coaches are turning up the heat on four-star WA PF Jaden McDaniels, who's recently shot up to #28 overall on the composite, and he told Rivals he has a connection to the program:

CE: The last time we talked, Arizona, Texas and Oklahoma were the three that stood out. Anyone else becoming more involved?

JM: San Diego State, Oregon and Michigan.

...

CE: Michigan hasn’t offered yet, but with its recent string of success, what are your feelings with the Wolverines?

JM: It is just exciting because my cousin (Juwan Howard) used to player there and they just say that you had family they had come through here and teasing me, so they are definitely an option.

More heavy hitters will surely become involved. If a visit materializes, maybe you can feel safe hitting play on that highlight video. Maybe.

Meanwhile, four-star in-state target Rocket Watts (and five-star pipe dream target Cole Anthony) made the loaded USA U-18 roster, surviving a final cut that several heralded prospects—including McDaniels and five-star target Keion Brooks—did not.

Looking ahead to the 2020 class, Michigan's success is begetting success; top-50 PF Lance Ware talked to Rivals about what seems to be a cursory top four of Louisville, Michigan, Oregon, and Villanova, and he chose an interesting spot to watch the national title game:

Michigan: “I was at the national title game, sitting in the Michigan fan section. There was so much intensity in the game, it was ridiculous.

“I like how he (John Beilein) runs his program and his players and he is just a class act.”

If anything, Beilein's flirtation with the NBA should help recruiting. He's been recognized as a coach good enough to be at that level, made it relatively deep into the search process, and then made it clear he'll be at Michigan for a while. While it took some figuring out, the bump we expected after the 2013 Final Four is happening now.

#1 plz. Well played, Stu.

Etc. Sam Webb on the program finding its "wolf" in Jalen Wilson. UMHoops appears to be down, but whenever it gets back up there's a very interesting multi-part feature on the improvement of M's defense over there.

Comments

jsquigg

June 7th, 2018 at 3:27 PM ^

Coach B never intended to take the Pistons job, he just interviewed and strategically leaked it to:

1) Get himself and his staff paid.

2) Boost his image.

3) Boost recruiting.

#conspiracy

CLion

June 8th, 2018 at 11:53 AM ^

I assume this is sarcasm, but in Brendan Quinn's interview with him, he was clearly very seriously entertaining it, and had it moved more quickly with less uncertainty on the Pistons side, it seems like he may very well have taken it.

stephenrjking

June 7th, 2018 at 3:46 PM ^

Things look really promising for the future of the program. 

Michigan certainly has a chance to do well this season. Matthews, obviously, is a key part. 

But while Michigan returns key players that we know can contribute and loses guys we believe can have their production replaced, we lost our three most reliable shooters, including a stretch 5 whose effect on defenses was transformative. 

The defense should be excellent, which means the floor for the team is good. But they won't win hardware unless they can shoot.

It's a lot of question marks. Is it true that Teske will be able to shoot threes when open? Can Matthews bump up his distance shooting by 5% or so? Can Simpson fix his shot? Will Poole be everything we want him to be? Can a freshman or two understand the offense and defense enough to bring their natural shooting talent into play?

We need at least two or three "yes" answers to these questions.

But we have the coach to do it. Remarkably, a coach increasingly being recognized as one of the best in the country. 

A2toGVSU

June 7th, 2018 at 4:05 PM ^

Don't sleep on the rising sophomores. Livers' usage was obviously tiny last year, but his role will grow, and he has the ability to stretch the floor. Brooks got buried last year once Simmons figured out his role, but Brooks can really fill it up, too. Poole... I'm right there with Ace. I think he'll take a Stauskas leap, increasing his efficiency while taking on the role of primary creator on offense. He'll be an all conference player if not the outright B1G MVP. That kid lives for the spotlight.

A2toGVSU

June 7th, 2018 at 4:06 PM ^

Don't sleep on the rising sophomores. Livers' usage was obviously tiny last year, but his role will grow, and he has the ability to stretch the floor. Brooks got buried last year once Simmons figured out his role, but Brooks can really fill it up, too. Poole... I'm right there with Ace. I think he'll take a Stauskas leap, increasing his efficiency while taking on the role of primary creator on offense. He'll be an all conference player if not the outright B1G MVP. That kid lives for the spotlight.

bronxblue

June 7th, 2018 at 4:25 PM ^

All good points.  I'd say Simpson and Matthews probably won't be great shooters, but incremental improvement by both helps lessen the hit you take with Robinson and Maar gone.  The offense will probably a bit more drive-heavy than in past years as a result, but last year's team wasn't particularly great (compared to past versions) shooting and made it to the title game.  

My bigger concern is at the foul line.  Simpson and Matthews in particular needs to be in that 65%+ area consistently so that the offense doesn't get bogged down late with auto-fouls.

stephenrjking

June 7th, 2018 at 4:42 PM ^

FT shooting goes along with 3pt% in my mind, if not in my actual comments, and I completely agree. Simpson just needs to creep up to replacement level to make a huge difference in end-of-game scenarios. My guess is that an improvement in line shooting will be reflected in his 3%, at least in open catch-and-shoot situations.

If both can be dangerous enough from 3 to force defenders to play up to them at the 3-point line, that both opens up the rest of the offense and strengthens their own drive games considerably by preventing defenders from backing off. 

Good point above mentions Livers, too, who faded late but has shown that he might be able to shoot. A guy like that is a big asset if he can just hit open shots and play D. 

bronxblue

June 7th, 2018 at 6:27 PM ^

Absolutely true about Livers.  He faded a bit because of his play, but he probably would have still seen more time had Robinson not turned into the shockingly competent defender he was the second half of the year.  And if he can build on the solid base he laid down last year, that makes me feel better about where the tall 3-point mismatch comes from.

yossarians tree

June 7th, 2018 at 4:32 PM ^

Though Simpson and Matthews have not shown great shooting ability, they both can break down the defense off the dribble. This can help create open looks for others and hopefully by season's end at least Poole, Livers, and one of the freshmen will become reliable at open 3s. And Teske will be given a chance to show he can hit from outside. I have a feeling he is working on his shot all summer.

Alumnus93

June 7th, 2018 at 9:39 PM ^

Teske will do just fine.  There were times in the roueney I was screaming at the TV when Beilein would yank Teske early for Wagner, and Wagner is my all time fav.  The key is replacing Wagner's moxie and mental toughness.  This shouldnt be overlooked .   This Carton kid, would help.  Love the way he attacks . 

bronxblue

June 7th, 2018 at 4:18 PM ^

It always seemed with for Beilein to go to the NBA, but ImI happy he got a look and it helped lead to a well deserved raise.

 

I agree UM is the leader in the clubhouse for the conference crown this year.  MSU is a close second because of the talent returning and Izzo's penchant for grinding his guys down still nets a lot of wins.  But the next time Maryland lives up to its billing will be the first, and nobody else has a clear path to being better than that top 3.

njvictor

June 7th, 2018 at 10:53 PM ^

Another interesting 2020 basketball development is that Jalen Wilson is very close friends with 5* CG RJ Hampton, who is currently the #4 player in the nation, and Wilson has said he's actively recruiting him

GehBlau1072

June 8th, 2018 at 10:54 AM ^

Any chance Poole makes some significant strides in his defensive ability? I would assume if he improves in that area, he's a significant playmaker this season, yes?