Well, it's a new season for Michigan Softball. After a disastrous (by the program's standards) season that saw the Wolverines miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time in nearly three decades, the page has been turned and year #2 of the Bonnie Tholl Era is upon us. It's a new team, albeit one with a lot of familiar faces. The season is getting underway at 10am (broadcast for the opener can be found here), so it's time to break Team 47 down and give them a proper introduction: 

 

The Roster

Pitching 

While the 2023 season represented a steep decline in pitching compared to the 2022 or 2021 teams, it was still a stronger area of the team than the hitting side. The team ERA of 2.91 was not what you want if you hope to be a high level competitor in NCAA Softball, but the good news is total continuity. Everyone is back and they've added through the recruiting class as well. The team's arguable best player is Lauren Derkowski, who went from a depth piece as a freshman to the team's #1 pitcher as a sophomore. Derkowski wasn't quite ready to be a high-major ace, but she is a pretty good pitcher, 2.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.0 K/9. Last year represented a big step forward in her development and if this Michigan team is to get up off the mat, they're going to need Derkowski to take that next step towards ace status. I think it's possible because I believe in Jen Brundage and the development curve for Derkowski has been following a neat schedule. 

Arguably a bigger need than Derkowski taking the next step is shoring up the pitching situation outside of her. Last year's #2 was Jessica LeBeau, a Kent State transfer who was a good but not incredible MAC pitcher and more or less looked like that after up-transferring to the B1G. Bonnie Tholl spoke at media day about getting LeBeau's form and confidence back to where she was in the first half of last season, which is a decent point. LeBeau hung in there against a swath of good and great teams in the non-conference, but then posted basically similar results against much weaker competition in the B1G, when you would have liked to see her bring the ERA down during that portion of the year. Her final two B1G outings, against Indiana and Minnesota, were particularly ugly and helped drive the nail in the coffin on Michigan's season. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

Getting LeBeau back to a more usable option is a goal for the staff, but I don't particularly think she'll ever have the chops to be an ideal #2. At the very least, Michigan needs to get her some insurance, because last year the depth beyond the 1-2 at the top of the rotation was abhorrent. UNC transfer Hannah George and one-time elite recruit Emerson Aiken contributed nothing out of the pen, as the two combined to allow 23 earned runs and 44 H in 23.2 IP last season. If Michigan had to go to either of those two, it was over and the game went from bad to worse. I don't really know if there's much hope for improvement... theoretically better results are possible given George's past at UNC and Aiken's recruiting profile but we're multiple seasons removed from that now and they drew scant mention at media day. 

More likely is the help comes from true freshman Erin Hoehn, out of Poseyville, IN near Evansville. Hoehn is listed as a two-way player, but she was mentioned in the pitching conversation by Tholl in her press conference as someone who could compete and add to the pitching staff as a true freshman. So, it seems like she'll get her shot. Hoehn was a touted recruit, for what it's worth, a 2023 MaxPreps First Team All-American and 3x Indiana All-State first team honoree. She posted a career 0.79 ERA in high school, so the credentials look good, but tough to know until she competes in the circle in a collegiate game. 

I should round this out by mentioning that Maddie Erickson is listed as a potential pitcher on the roster but we never saw her pitch last season, even while George and Aiken were getting teed-off on in mop up duty. Erickson seems poised to play a larger role in the offense, so at this point, it doesn't appear that she factors in majorly in the pitching equation. But you never know. In a perfect world Derkowski takes a leap forward towards ace territory, LeBeau is a bit better assimilated to B1G softball and is an okay second fiddle, while Hoehn comes in and adds effective innings, allowing her and LeBeau to share the remaining non-Derkowski innings based on matchups and daily effectiveness, limiting the George/Aiken exposure. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: hitters, schedule, big picture]

 

[Bill Rapai]

Returning Starters Expected to be in the Lineup 

It is no secret that Michigan was bad offensively last year. Like really bad. Any path to getting this team back into the NCAA Tournament and on the path to broader competitiveness requires a major bounceback season offensively after the team ranked 158th in home runs per game and 164th in team slugging percentage (these stats were from the end of the regular season, pre-NCAAs). A team OPS of .719 is not gonna get it done and it's going to require a mix of internal improvement and the new recruits to steer things back on course. 

If there's one returning starter from last year who does look like a major pillar of stability on offense, it's Keke Tholl. Now a senior (she does have one year remaining from the 2020-21 COVID-shirt), Tholl was the team's lone power hitter last year, hitting 11 of the team's pitiful 25 homers. Her OPS of .963 was best on the team and unlike the departed Lexie Blair, who was also a very good hitter, Keke brings raw power that Lexie never did. That's more valuable to bring back and with another season of softball under her belt, it would be nice to see if she could get up to 15 bombs. Either way, Keke is a stellar hitter and every Michigan fan is glad to have her anchoring the middle of the order. 

Beyond Keke... it's not pretty among the returners. The only two to surpass a .700 OPS were Indiana Langford and Ellie Sieler. Langford was a true freshman last season, playing some 2B and some OF, hitting a solid .329 after coming on strong late in the year. After moving into a starting capacity in April, she raised her average nearly 100 points to finish as one of the team's better hitters. There was very little power (two XBH's) but she did have eight stolen bases, more of a speed than power player. If she can make another step forward offensively, into the .350+ range in terms of batting average, she's a solid starter. As for Sieler, the two-year LF starter from Monroe MI, she took the sort of sophomore step I'm looking for from Langford between 2022 to 2023, raising her average nearly fifty points. It was still only .287 and there's not a ton of power there either, but hey, getting on base matters and if her OBP can track up more towards .400, she'll continue to have a real role. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

Of the other three returners who started some last season, two were freshmen and one was a sophomore, repeating the theme of a young team. Ella McVey is the elder of the three, now a junior, coming off two consecutive seasons as the team's starting shortstop. She's a classic Michigan SS, mostly there for the defense as a slap-hitter offensively. The hole in McVey's game is that for a slapper to earn their due, they've gotta be hitting closer to .300 or above (given the 0% power). McVey has hit .257 and .284 at Michigan. If she can take one more step forward into the .300+ range, it starts to make much more sense. If nothing else, she plays a premium defensive position. 

Finally, those two freshmen that I mentioned, Maddie Erickson and Janelle Ilacqua. Erickson spent time at 1B and DP and had a rough offensive season, hitting only .235 with a .596 OPS, just two HRs and three doubles. Under normal circumstances I'd not list her as a starter, but Bonnie Tholl made it clear in the preseason media availability that she sees Erickson as a huge piece of this year's team, a middle-of-the-order bat. Okay then! If Erickson has figured some things out at the NCAA level and is ready to be a factor in the meat of the order, I'm all for it. We just haven't seen anything to indicate that yet. Ilacqua's season ended prematurely with injury but like Erickson, didn't show a whole lot. She hit .270 with zero power, while mostly playing 2B. Maybe Ilacqua is more ready to be a notable bat this season. 

 

[UMich Athletics]

The Big Fish 

Michigan did not go into the portal and get any transfer hitters, much to my dismay (I will discuss that more later), but there is one player on the roster who is neither a returning starter, returning role player, nor recruit. That would be Lilly Vallimont, who missed all of last season with a knee injury (she received a Medshirt). Vallimont was the recruit I was most excited about last season, a blue chipper from Trenton, MI, who was the country's #1 catcher and #5 overall recruit in the 2022 class. Vallimont's profile was one indicating a "tremendous bat with considerable power", as I wrote in last year's preview. Bonnie Tholl described Vallimont as having similar power to Keke Tholl, saying that Vallimont should post similar HR/RBI clips to Tholl. That is music to my ears, as Michigan badly needs another bat of that caliber. Also important to note that Tholl struggled defensively behind the plate, so if Vallimont's knees are healthy enough to handle the load at catcher, Michigan's defense could also improve by shifting Keke to 1B or DP. Adding Vallimont to the mix is simply huge for the team. 

 

Returning Role Players 

Given how bleak offensively some of the returning starters were, as you can imagine the returning role players were not too rosy either. It's basically three names here, as Lexi Voss moved on from the program in the offseason, and none of them have any real track record. Madi Ramey was the under-the-radar local add that Michigan takes on most years to round out their recruiting class, hailing from Allen Park. She appeared in 30 games but was mostly a pinch runner, getting 11 ABs total. Generally players who only pinch run stay in that role rather than grow into something more and that seems likely given Ramey's unremarkable recruiting profile but you never know. 

Avery Fantucci was also a true freshman, a highly touted recruit, but she only got into 16 games (and only took 19 ABs). I'm not exactly sure why she was not used more considering her 6th overall ranking to Extra Innings. She didn't show much in the games she played, but she also didn't play much. When Fantucci did play she was mostly at SS, which allows Michigan to spell McVey, but again, the sample wasn't big enough to really tell us anything. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

The third name is Ryleigh Carricaburu. She was once a highly rated recruit but had her first season washed out with injury and then played little in the second season. Last year, #3 on campus, was Carricaburu's first longer look as a Wolverine and it went very poorly. She hit just .130 with a .440 OPS, the only notable element of her performance being the nine HBPs Carricaburu drew in only 61 PAs(!!!!!). I can never remember a clip anything like that before. She has the ability to play either corner IF position or catcher, but she needs to start hitting the ball more for that to happen (rather than being hit by the ball). 

Finally, we should note Hannah George, the pitcher who does have the ability to hit. George went 1/4 last season at the plate, which should tell you all you need to know. The other name that deserves mention is Kaylee America Rodriguez, who is back listed on the 2024 roster after a battle with cancer that held her out last season. She is back in school and with her teammates in the clubhouse, per Bonnie Tholl's tweet last month. I have no idea if she will ever be physically ready to compete again but that doesn't matter because she is still with us and apparently doing well as a human and that's what is important. 

 

Jenissa Conway [Her twitter]

The Freshman Hitters

Michigan has added another sizable recruiting class to the fold, four of which are hitters outside of the aforementioned Hoehn (who seems to be more of a pitcher). Two garnered mention from Bonnie Tholl at media day as projected starters, outfielders Jenissa Conway and Ella Stephenson. It makes sense given that Michigan needs to fill two starting jobs in the OF after graduating Lexie Blair and Ellie Mataya. Conway was the #17 recruit nationally, a HS All-American who boasts decent hitting numbers but I don't see a firm projection on her power. Stephenson was similarly rated as the #19 recruit and seems to have more optimistic power projections, hitting 11 HRs in the summer of 2022 during the travel season and 47 career HRs in HS. If she could slide into the Michigan order and provide near-double digit HR power, that would also be huge. 

The final two position player recruits are Ava Costales and Lexi Dellamonica. The latter is listed as an infielder and seems to be more of a speed oriented player, of which Michigan has many. If nothing else, she will keep Michigan's reserve supply of Lexi(e)s going after graduating Lexi Voss and Lexie Blair in the offseason. Costales, from St. Clair Shores, hit .500 in HS with 24 career HRs, so not a major power profile although her background page on the roster describes her as a former powerlifter who holds deadlift and total lift records, so maybe there's something to be unearthed there. Costales is a utility player but has background at catcher and you can never have too many of those. Both Costales and Dellamonica were ranked in the top 50 of the Extra Innings recruiting rankings, so they would seem to have talent and the potential to contribute immediately, even if they weren't named as starters by Tholl preseason. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

A Lineup Guess

This will become irrelevant because by the time many of you read this, the first game will be underway, but I'm writing it just before the season opener, so there's still some projection. There are some areas of the lineup that seem pretty easy to project, Vallimont and Keke Tholl at either C or DP/1B (I expect Vallimont C and Tholl DP/1B) being one. Ella McVey at SS and Ellie Sieler at LF are two more. Maddie Erickson is going to be in the lineup and seemingly in the middle of it. She played 2B and DP last year, but could seemingly play 3B. Conway/Stephenson are going to be starters according to Bonnie, with presumably one in CF and one in RF. That's seven names right there.

Ilacqua and Langford both started quite a few games last season, so you'd think they will be in line to start unless someone takes the job away from them. Both played 2B last season, but you wonder about the flexibility to play 3B. If either can do it then you might have your starting nine right there. Obviously I'm not ruling out the possibility one of the freshmen jump in, or maybe Fantucci or Carricaburu make a leap. It would be a welcome sight! But the safest projection is these nine players, with my best guess having Erickson at DP, Tholl at 1B, Vallimont at C, Langford at 2B, and Ilacqua at 3B. [those reading this can dunk on me in the comments for getting the lineup inevitably all wrong]

 

[JD Scott]

The Schedule

Perhaps as a reaction to last year's struggles, the non-conference schedule has been remarkably scaled back when it comes to elite competition relative to most seasons. Going off of last season's rankings, Michigan is set to face just one team in the non-conference that was a top 16 seed in last year's NCAA Tournament, which is UCLA in the annual Judi Garman Classic. Some of that is teams who Michigan typically plays underperforming last year. For example, they meet Florida twice, but the Gators were just 24th in RPI last year and weren't a top 16 seed like usual. Will Florida be better this year? No idea, but there's a good chance. Texas A&M and Louisville also figure to be solid teams, but this isn't the murderer's row with the usual array of five or six elite teams on the schedule. 

Moreover, only a couple weekends profile as threatening, whereas most years nearly every weekend has one marquee- or at least interesting- foe. This season there's this weekend, at the USF-Rawlings Tournament, and the Judi Garman Classic over spring break, that are "circle this on the calendar" outings. In between are more ho-hum weekends, such as the UC Santa Barbara Tournament, where Michigan plays Northern Colorado (x2), Sacramento State (x2), and UCSB, none of whom are notable opponents. The same could be said for the NKU Spring Classic, where Michigan will see Bowling Green (x2), Northern Kentucky, and Illinois State, all of whom were outside the top 100 in RPI last season. 

The result of this schedule is that it gives this rebuilding Michigan team a chance to make it through the non-conference with fewer hits to the confidence. On the contrary, it also means there are fewer opportunities to build a solid NCAA Tournament resume. They'll need to play relatively clean in those easy weekends and find a way to grind out a few wins over teams like Florida, Louisville, Texas A&M, and USF that are usually in the tourney (even if most were down last year). The B1G isn't a power conference, but Nebraska does appear to be the sort of team that you can notch quality wins against, projected for the top 16 nationally. The Huskers come to Ann Arbor in late April, which should be a marquee weekend at The Hutch. Michigan goes to Northwestern (also ranked preseason) and Indiana (made the tournament), which will also be critical games when it comes to building a resume. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

General Feelingsball

At the close of last season I compared the 2023 Michigan Softball team to the 2008 Michigan Football team, in terms of 1.) a coaching change, 2.) heavy attrition/roster turnover, 3.) an expected rebuilding year that still goes worse than anticipated, and 4.) a famous streak being snapped (tournament streak::bowl streak). It's not a perfect comparison but I still think it's decently useful to describe what unfolded last season. The nightmarish close to the season was brutal and a lot of things went wrong, but it's a new season now and that's important to keep in mind. 

The offensive side of thing is obviously where things need to improve the most. In my wrap up article from last season, I wrote the following: 

The quickest way for me to gain faith in Bonnie Tholl as a coach is for her to go out into the portal and recruit hitters for power specifically. I don't even need them to have good batting averages or great hit tools, I just want a couple hitters who can make it go far when they hit the ball. That at least would show they're diagnosing the central problem with this team 

Welp, that didn't happen. That said, they didn't get anyone out of the portal, which I found strange, but did seem to suggest to me that Bonnie sees this as a multi-year build, with the focus being on the freshmen and sophomores. I'd rather have no movement out of the portal and a commitment to the youth on the roster than going into the portal to recruit more no-power hitters, as was routinely happening in the late Hutch years. The downside is, to fix the half-decade-long problem with power hitting, it's going to have to come from the roster. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

Given that, we need to be honest here and recognize that large scale power increases are not going to be happening. Bonnie said as much at media day, giving the quote that Michigan is still "not a hugely power team". Michigan is not going to turn into the 2015 or 2016 squad when it comes to power overnight because we know who most of these players are. But any amounts of power increases will be welcomed and hitting more HRs isn't the only way to fix the offense. This is a team that only hit .272 last season (122nd nationally). Even if they still aren't hitting for huge power, they can hit for better average, get on base more, and put more balls in the gaps. 

With all that in mind, what is the projection? Offensively, it should only be up from here. They subtract four regulars from last year's lineup but of those four, only Lexie Blair was a good hitter. She will be a tough loss, but not a huge one from a power standpoint. As for Melina Livingston, Ellie Mataya, and Audrey LeClair, all were below the team average in both BA and OPS. While the six returning hitters are by no means an intimidating group outside of Keke Tholl, there are reason to believe many can improve. Langford, Ilacqua, and Erickson were all true freshmen, while Seiler and McVey both improved last year. If everyone can take another step forward, including a sizable one for the rising sophomores, the team's tide will be lifted. 

And obviously if the additions from the recruiting class and the injury bug can make instant impacts, that will go a long way. I feel pretty confident that Vallimont can be a major bat, which would ease the pain of losing Blair, while the probability that Conway/Stephenson can replace Livingston/LeClair/Mataya offensively is not low. I don't expect this to be a good offensive team, but they need to take a step forward. Progressing back towards the .791 OPS that the 2022 team had (which was by no means a good offensive team) is what I need to see. I need indicators that Bonnie's staff has solutions for this years-long offensive funk that the program has been mired in. On that topic, Bonnie said in her media availability, "I'm hopeful you're going to see the result of a year of an offensive system put in place by (Amanda Chidester) and (Faith Canfield)". I am hopeful too. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

On the pitching side, there's no reason it shouldn't be better. Derkowski is another year older and LeBeau is more experienced when it comes to pitching at the high-major level. I don't know how good Hoehn will be but she can't be worse than what George/Aiken offered last season. And hey, maybe there's a chance that that one of those two will improve as well. The stability in the circle is a major win and while I don't think we're returning to Storako/Beaubien tandem levels of pitching right away, the team should definitely be improved in run prevention. 

So overall? Yeah, this team should be better. They didn't lose many pieces and certainly not many of major consequence, with a lot of returning production and continuity after there was none of that last offseason. A strong recruiting class is added to the fold (I'm including Vallimont in that given the injury) which should be a shot in the arm. It was a young team last year and now it's a little more veteran. Bonnie and all the players made available to the media talked about concepts like "competitive maturity", and Ella McVey spoke about working with a sports psychologist. It seems from my vantage point that last year was tough on the players and they (players and coaches) learned some valuable lessons. Now we'll see what was learned. 

In terms of expectations, the goal should be to get back into the NCAA Tournament. They probably aren't at the point to challenge a Nebraska or Northwestern for the B1G, but getting back to the NCAAs would go a long way towards demonstrating that this ship is steering back on course. More than anything I just want to see offensive improvement, particularly players who were on the team last year getting better. There hasn't been enough of that over the last five years, so if Chidester and Canfield have figured something out in the way of offensive development that would be huge. I'd like to see the team get better overall, move back into the tourney, and exit 2024 with a core of players that feel like something to build on, a group you can add transfers and talented recruits to and feel like you have a shot to do something with in 2025 and beyond. Last season demonstrated that this is a multi-year rebuild and 2024 needs to reveal itself as a positive step in that rebuild.