Softball

[Bill Rapai]

Well, it's a new season for Michigan Softball. After a disastrous (by the program's standards) season that saw the Wolverines miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time in nearly three decades, the page has been turned and year #2 of the Bonnie Tholl Era is upon us. It's a new team, albeit one with a lot of familiar faces. The season is getting underway at 10am (broadcast for the opener can be found here), so it's time to break Team 47 down and give them a proper introduction: 

 

The Roster

Pitching 

While the 2023 season represented a steep decline in pitching compared to the 2022 or 2021 teams, it was still a stronger area of the team than the hitting side. The team ERA of 2.91 was not what you want if you hope to be a high level competitor in NCAA Softball, but the good news is total continuity. Everyone is back and they've added through the recruiting class as well. The team's arguable best player is Lauren Derkowski, who went from a depth piece as a freshman to the team's #1 pitcher as a sophomore. Derkowski wasn't quite ready to be a high-major ace, but she is a pretty good pitcher, 2.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.0 K/9. Last year represented a big step forward in her development and if this Michigan team is to get up off the mat, they're going to need Derkowski to take that next step towards ace status. I think it's possible because I believe in Jen Brundage and the development curve for Derkowski has been following a neat schedule. 

Arguably a bigger need than Derkowski taking the next step is shoring up the pitching situation outside of her. Last year's #2 was Jessica LeBeau, a Kent State transfer who was a good but not incredible MAC pitcher and more or less looked like that after up-transferring to the B1G. Bonnie Tholl spoke at media day about getting LeBeau's form and confidence back to where she was in the first half of last season, which is a decent point. LeBeau hung in there against a swath of good and great teams in the non-conference, but then posted basically similar results against much weaker competition in the B1G, when you would have liked to see her bring the ERA down during that portion of the year. Her final two B1G outings, against Indiana and Minnesota, were particularly ugly and helped drive the nail in the coffin on Michigan's season. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

Getting LeBeau back to a more usable option is a goal for the staff, but I don't particularly think she'll ever have the chops to be an ideal #2. At the very least, Michigan needs to get her some insurance, because last year the depth beyond the 1-2 at the top of the rotation was abhorrent. UNC transfer Hannah George and one-time elite recruit Emerson Aiken contributed nothing out of the pen, as the two combined to allow 23 earned runs and 44 H in 23.2 IP last season. If Michigan had to go to either of those two, it was over and the game went from bad to worse. I don't really know if there's much hope for improvement... theoretically better results are possible given George's past at UNC and Aiken's recruiting profile but we're multiple seasons removed from that now and they drew scant mention at media day. 

More likely is the help comes from true freshman Erin Hoehn, out of Poseyville, IN near Evansville. Hoehn is listed as a two-way player, but she was mentioned in the pitching conversation by Tholl in her press conference as someone who could compete and add to the pitching staff as a true freshman. So, it seems like she'll get her shot. Hoehn was a touted recruit, for what it's worth, a 2023 MaxPreps First Team All-American and 3x Indiana All-State first team honoree. She posted a career 0.79 ERA in high school, so the credentials look good, but tough to know until she competes in the circle in a collegiate game. 

I should round this out by mentioning that Maddie Erickson is listed as a potential pitcher on the roster but we never saw her pitch last season, even while George and Aiken were getting teed-off on in mop up duty. Erickson seems poised to play a larger role in the offense, so at this point, it doesn't appear that she factors in majorly in the pitching equation. But you never know. In a perfect world Derkowski takes a leap forward towards ace territory, LeBeau is a bit better assimilated to B1G softball and is an okay second fiddle, while Hoehn comes in and adds effective innings, allowing her and LeBeau to share the remaining non-Derkowski innings based on matchups and daily effectiveness, limiting the George/Aiken exposure. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: hitters, schedule, big picture]

[Bill Rapai]

Sooooooo yeah. The last time I wrote about Michigan Softball was late April, when they had three weekends left in the B1G season. They were still in the field for NCAA Tournament projections at the time and I felt that a solid close to the regular season would likely be enough to get the Wolverines into the tourney. Which, for a rebuilding season, would have been a fine outcome. 

That is emphatically not what happened. Michigan Softball lost an infuriating extra inning game to Northwestern, destroyed the 'Cats on Saturday, and then lost a comedy of errors umpiring show on Sunday. That was an okay result, but everything that followed was a catastrophe, back to back sweeps at the hands of a pair of good B1G teams in Minnesota and Indiana. A 1-8 record over the final nine B1G games plummeted Michigan to 10th in the conference standings, forcing them to need a miracle in the BTT to make it in. They didn't get one, rather a first round exit at the hands of Penn State. 

So here we are, 25-24 and no NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1994. How did it go wrong? What comes next? And what about the longterm viability of Michigan Softball as a meaningful program? We've got some hard questions to answer today. 

 

How it all went down

Ugly! Oh wait, you want me to tell you more? The abbreviated version in the opening not painful enough? Well, here goes I guess. That first game against Northwestern was where we left off, the chance for Michigan to notch marquee wins in conference against a team that ended up being a regional host seed when the tourney bracket got unveiled. NU is legit and as a whole, it looked like a decent fight. Michigan and Northwestern were tied 2-2 on Friday into extra innings, Michigan getting terrific relief pitching from Jessica Lebeau. They fell down 3-2 in the bottom of the 10th, but a big hit by Audrey LeClair tied the game. The winning run was waved home but was thrown out by a country mile in one of the worst sends from third base I have seen in some time. Alas, Northwestern took a 4-3 lead in the top of the 11th and won the game by that margin. 

It was a bitter loss, but made up for by a stunning 15-0(!!!) shellacking Michigan laid on Northwestern on Saturday. Out of nowhere, a challenged offense had their way with a top notch team and secured a comfortable run rule victory. That led us into Sunday, a game that was tied 0-0 into the 7th amid multiple umpiring errors that jobbed Michigan (in my view). However, you still need to show a pulse outside of getting screwed and the Wolverines didn't do nearly enough with the six hits and two walks they got. Eight baserunners translated into zero runs, while two key base knocks for the Wildcats in the top of the 7th powered them to a 3-0 victory. 

[Bill Rapai]

Despite dropping two of three, Michigan was still on track to make the NCAAs at this juncture. It all began unraveling the following weekend, a sweep at home at the hands of Indiana. IU ain't a bad team, but they're not Northwestern. You needed to take at least 2/3 at home and you got swept. And not just swept, decisively swept. The Friday game got postponed to a Saturday doubleheader, which Indiana swept by a combined score of 19-2(!!). Everything that could go wrong went wrong, a 4-1 defeat that saw Michigan never be competitive on the scoreboard and a 15-1 drubbing in which LeBeau got pummeled and with Lauren Derkowski tired from Game 1, Michigan was forced to turn to its unusable pitching depth, which made things go from bad to worse. On offense, Michigan mustered only nine hits combined in the two games and zero runs against Heather Johnson and Briana Copeland of IU. Of those nine hits, only two were of the extra base variety (both doubles). Pitiful. 

The Sunday game against Indiana was at least more competitive, but it still was far from an acceptable result. The Hoosiers got to Derkowski again and Michigan trailed 5-1 in the bottom of the 3rd before trying to claw back. They cut the lead to 6-5 on an Ella McVey single in the 7th, placing the tying and winning runs on, but an Ellie Sieler flyout ended it. Getting swept up by a team like Indiana put Michigan's tournament hopes into deep jeopardy, setting the stage for a dramatic trip to Minneapolis. In between were two easy run rule wins over WMU and Oakland, but the team went to Minnesota realistically needing a sweep. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: a play that will make you SQUEAL!]

Lexie is back and very few other players are [JD Scott]

Michigan Softball's 2023 season kicked off last night with a 2-1 extra innings defeat to USF in Florida, before their slate of weekend games beginning this afternoon. A new season upon us means it's time for another Michigan Softball season preview, which I held off on running until today because I wanted to get a peak at the lineup from last night. The reasoning behind that decision is there is so much uncertainty with this squad, so many new faces and not the least of which being in the dugout. With Carol Hutchins retiring, Bonnie Tholl is beginning her tenure as head coach of Michigan Softball, and she presides over a roster that saw the majority of its batting order depart in the offseason, as well as both pitchers who logged the vast majority of innings. Several new transfers are in as well as a six player recruiting class, so this is going to have a very different feel of a season than a year ago. Today we'll break it all down: 

 

The Roster

Pitching 

Where last year this section was an re-introduction of two extremely familiar faces, this year it's the great unknown. Michigan said farewell to the graduating Meghan Beaubien and watched Alex Storako transfer to juggernaut Oklahoma in pursuit of a national title, leaving them in a position of more or less starting over in the circle. First name up is last night's starter, Lauren Derkowski, the only returning pitcher to log more than one appearance in 2022 for the Wolverines. Derkowski was a highly touted prospect in the 2021 recruiting class out of Illinois who was used more than expected throughout the season, becoming the #3 arm behind Beaubien and Storako. Still, she wasn't used all that much and that's why it's hard to project for 2023, given the potentially massive increase in workload if Derkowski is to become the hoss in the circle. 

Her final stat line as a freshman sat at 44.2 IP, 2.19 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, striking out roughly a batter per inning. She battled the walk problem, but if the control can be reigned in, there's reason for optimism. Those who are hoping for a leap from Derkowski in year #2 ought to be encouraged by last night's performance against the Bulls, striking out nine hitters in 7.1 innings, allowing only three hits and two runs, neither of which were earned. It was a confident effort and is already the longest outing of her career. If that sort of performance can be replicated, and her recruiting pedigree suggests it could, Michigan can work with that for sure. 

The other returning pitcher is Emerson Aiken, but she made only one appearance in 2022, something that generally happens for a reason and her one outing showed plenty as to why it was only one game. Aiken faced Elon, far from an imposing foe, and faced six batters. The result? Two outs recorded, three walks, and one HR allowed. Uh huh. The optimistic take with Aiken is that she was also a blue chip recruit and thus the talent should be there to shake it off. The pessimistic take is that Michigan had a highly touted pitcher a few years earlier in Chandler Dennis, who, like Aiken, seldom got to see the circle as a freshman, and things didn't get much better in year #2. Being buried in the bullpen is not a great sign, but here's for hoping for better outcomes. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More preview]

Bidding adieu to an icon 

Farewell to a living legend

Contemplating Michigan Softball's place nationally 

That’s like your goofus comment from earlier in the year.

I don’t like running into outs.

Was Erik Campbell next if Dan turned them down?

Washington got screwed.

Are you a softball bracketologist now? I’m not a softball bracket apologist.

y'all got any more of them Wagners?

We are really big Rutgers fans.