Michigan Softball's 2023 season kicked off last night with a 2-1 extra innings defeat to USF in Florida, before their slate of weekend games beginning this afternoon. A new season upon us means it's time for another Michigan Softball season preview, which I held off on running until today because I wanted to get a peak at the lineup from last night. The reasoning behind that decision is there is so much uncertainty with this squad, so many new faces and not the least of which being in the dugout. With Carol Hutchins retiring, Bonnie Tholl is beginning her tenure as head coach of Michigan Softball, and she presides over a roster that saw the majority of its batting order depart in the offseason, as well as both pitchers who logged the vast majority of innings. Several new transfers are in as well as a six player recruiting class, so this is going to have a very different feel of a season than a year ago. Today we'll break it all down: 

 

The Roster

Pitching 

Where last year this section was an re-introduction of two extremely familiar faces, this year it's the great unknown. Michigan said farewell to the graduating Meghan Beaubien and watched Alex Storako transfer to juggernaut Oklahoma in pursuit of a national title, leaving them in a position of more or less starting over in the circle. First name up is last night's starter, Lauren Derkowski, the only returning pitcher to log more than one appearance in 2022 for the Wolverines. Derkowski was a highly touted prospect in the 2021 recruiting class out of Illinois who was used more than expected throughout the season, becoming the #3 arm behind Beaubien and Storako. Still, she wasn't used all that much and that's why it's hard to project for 2023, given the potentially massive increase in workload if Derkowski is to become the hoss in the circle. 

Her final stat line as a freshman sat at 44.2 IP, 2.19 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, striking out roughly a batter per inning. She battled the walk problem, but if the control can be reigned in, there's reason for optimism. Those who are hoping for a leap from Derkowski in year #2 ought to be encouraged by last night's performance against the Bulls, striking out nine hitters in 7.1 innings, allowing only three hits and two runs, neither of which were earned. It was a confident effort and is already the longest outing of her career. If that sort of performance can be replicated, and her recruiting pedigree suggests it could, Michigan can work with that for sure. 

The other returning pitcher is Emerson Aiken, but she made only one appearance in 2022, something that generally happens for a reason and her one outing showed plenty as to why it was only one game. Aiken faced Elon, far from an imposing foe, and faced six batters. The result? Two outs recorded, three walks, and one HR allowed. Uh huh. The optimistic take with Aiken is that she was also a blue chip recruit and thus the talent should be there to shake it off. The pessimistic take is that Michigan had a highly touted pitcher a few years earlier in Chandler Dennis, who, like Aiken, seldom got to see the circle as a freshman, and things didn't get much better in year #2. Being buried in the bullpen is not a great sign, but here's for hoping for better outcomes. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More preview]

[Michigan Photography]

Michigan Daily writers who attended preseason media availability seem to believe the other main starter alongside Derkowski will be incoming transfer Jessica LeBeau from Kent State. The righty LeBeau put together two quality campaigns for the Golden Flashes, 2x All-MAC 2nd Team, a 2.75 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP across her two seasons with KSU. She's a high strikeout pitcher and was someone Michigan had familiarity with, having faced the Wolverines in 2022, as Michigan and Kent State are rather frequent opponents. LeBeau has a profile to like, but making the jump from the MAC to the B1G will be a sizable one, and it doesn't feel great that she wasn't hyper-dominant in the MAC. Good, but not exceptional. It feels like the best case here is Jen Brundage works her magic and instills a level of coaching that Kent State was not able to provide and LeBeau makes the transition well, replicating her MAC numbers in the B1G. The worst case is the translation goes awry and LeBeau flops in a power conference. 

Another transfer in was Hannah George, who the Daily portrayed as the likely #3 arm. George arrives from UNC, a former two-way player who apparently will just be focusing on the pitching side of things at Michigan after a four year career in Chapel Hill. Michigan tangled with George at some early season tournaments a few years back and I recall being moderately impressed, but her stats indicate a player whose development flatlined and never became an effective ace in the ACC. Spot duty is probably more likely and again you hope that Brundage coaxes something more out of George than the Tar Heels were able to unlock, but I wouldn't be too optimistic here considering how experienced George is. She's pitched four seasons in the NCAA, so she's probably closer to a finished product. She's shouldered close to 100 innings in every full season of her career, so she can step up if needed, but her ACC track record indicates a significant cut below Beaubien/Storako if we're projecting this season. 

Finally, Maddie Erickson comes in as a freshman two-way player. She was named 2021 Oregon Class 5A Pitcher of the Year and was a 2x All-State honoree as a pitcher, though interestingly, in the press release the softball program put out when Erickson signed, the quote given talked much more about Erickson as a hitter than a pitcher. It's rather easy to peg Erickson as the 4th or 5th name on the depth chart right now, lacking the experience of LeBeau, George, or Derkowski. Will she see time in the circle? Maybe! I assume Michigan will use a 4th pitcher at some point, perhaps in an even semi-regular role, but it's anyone's guess if Erickson or Aiken steps up to claim that job. Based on recruiting profile, you'd lean Aiken, but hard to know. 

 

[James Coller]

Returning Starters Expected to be in the Lineup 

Michigan's lineup hasn't been devastated in the same way their production in the circle has, but significant losses were sustained here too. They return only four regular starters and perhaps another real contributor from last season and only three are anything approaching quality hitters. Lexie Blair returns for her 5th year in the outfield and she is the best hitter on Michigan's team, a rock solid high average, high OBP hitter. She's hovered between a .900 and 1.000 OPS over her Michigan career, a fine ball player who is the team's projected best player. We also have to be clear about who she is: Blair is a doubles hitter, not a home run hitter. Her career high in HRs is 6. She's a safe bet for 15-20 doubles and a .350 average, but don't expect her to become something she's never been as a collegiate player. 

Melina Livingston, a transfer in from PSU last season, returns after being a solid presence in the batting order for the Maize & Blue in 2022. Livingston accrued an .820 OPS in 116 ABs, not a ton of power but she's a solid player who can play all over the infield and at DP if needed. Audrey LeClair started 43 games in her first season as an everyday player and managed to use her speed and contact approach to get on base often. She put together a .778 OPS and had 10 SB. As a senior, it seems easy to expect LeClair to be in the lineup on a daily basis, but there is little power here too. 

The only other player I'm quite sure will be in the lineup regularly is Ella McVey. A highly touted middle infield prospect, McVey slid into the hole vacated by Natalia Rodriguez as a true freshman and started 55 of 56 games. She drew plenty of walks and was a perfect 5/5 stealing bases, but as a slapper, there is no power in her bat at all, finishing with a .656 OPS and a .257 average. McVey will always pride herself on defense, but to be a more effective player, you'd like to see her get that average up into the .300s. The reality is that her and LeClair are bottom of the lineup players on good teams and that Livingston and Blair are the only returners who who would picture into a 1-6 slot on a WCWS contender. 

I should mention Ellie Sieler before I move on, who surprised me to start 41 games last year as a freshman. When I was compiling my softball notes for the preseason, I did not assume she will be a starter, but given that she was last year, it seems she will start as one this year, in the opening night lineup yesterday against USF. The reason I had her outside the picture is the .601 OPS she posted over 121 at-bats last season. That's not going to get it done on a team that has aspirations of going anywhere and thus I would want to see major improvement from Sieler offensively (which is possible!) before I pencil her into the lineup. 

 

The Transfer 

Michigan did pick up one transfer hitter who is an easy bet to inhabit the middle of the lineup, Ellie Mataya. The 5th year player from Boston College was one of the better hitters in the ACC and is likely to be an impact player at Michigan. She cleared .900 OPS each of the past two seasons and while the ACC is not the SEC or PAC-12 when it comes to competition, it's an equivalent (or better) league than the B1G, so there's no question the skills should translate. The problem? Well, she also has no power, boasting 3 career HRs. Mataya was a good pick up for the Michigan squad but as you can tell, there is an element missing from Michigan's lineup as it stands and a dearth of known commodity hitters with Mataya being the lone transfer. 

 

[JD Scott]

Returning Role Players 

Here's where we begin to dig into the unknowns, where a lot of the season hinges. The closest that we have to being known is Lexi Voss, and that's not necessarily a good thing. A once-touted recruit, Voss is now a senior and through three seasons, there's been no indication that she has the hitting chops to be a regular. She was given chances in both 2021 and 2022, and flamed out both times. The power she was marketed as having in HS hasn't translated to the NCAA level, with one career HR, and a big reason is chronic contact problems, boasting a >25% K rate entering this season. Is there a chance the lightbulb could come on? Sure, I guess. But I'm not banking on it. 

Next up are juniors Keke Tholl and Ryleigh Carricaburu. Tholl, Bonnie's niece, is an interesting player to me and one of the chief candidates to catch this season (she started behind the plate last night). Tholl had power in her bat in HS and it has translated some in her limited NCAA time through two seasons. She smacked a double off Washington ace Gabbie Plain in the 2021 NCAA Tournament as a freshman, and last year hit four HRs in 54 AB and half of her hits were of the extra-base variety. The problem? She hit .185 as a whole and struggled with strikeouts. There's more there to get out of Tholl and her profile is something Michigan is sorely lacking, a real power threat. If she can make a jump, that would be massive for the squad. 

Carricaburu is in her third year in the program yet is, for all intents and purposes, a recruit still. She redshirted her first year with injury and then logged only eight ABs last season, going 1/8 at the plate. Carricaburu was once a well-regarded recruit who has the ability to play catcher or third base, but what she could be is a giant unknown. Interestingly, she did make Michigan's opening night lineup playing 1B, notching a hit and striking out twice. At the very least, it tells us she did well enough in fall and winter practices to get a crack at it. 

Finally we have two players to note, albeit for very different reasons. Jessica Garmen is in her fourth season with Michigan as a depth catcher, boasting three career ABs. It would be stunning if her role evolved to anything more than a do-over of that. Lastly there's Kaylee America Rodriguez, who is still listed on the roster for symbolic reasons. For those unfamiliar, Rodriguez was diagnosed with cancer a few months back and will not be playing softball this year while she is seeking treatment, but the team has left her on the roster and is keeping her in their hearts. It would be inappropriate not to mention Kaylee at some point in this piece. 

 

[Michigan Photography]

The Freshman Hitters

Though none of these players were in the lineup for opening night, I have a hunch many will be by some point in the middle of the season, so let's get to know them. Lilly Vallimont was the crown jewel of the class, the #5 national recruit and the #1 catcher recruit in the country, hailing from nearby Trenton, MI. Signing her was a major coup for the coaching staff and she boasts a tremendous bat with considerable power. Watching Vallimont battle Keke Tholl for the catcher job will be something to watch. 

Avery Fantucci was the nation's #6 overall recruit and is marketed as a high average, contact hitter occupying the middle of the infield. There isn't a set 2B on this roster opposite McVey at short, so I'd look to see if Fantucci can grab a spot in the lineup at some point. Beyond that there are two players who were ranked in the 30s nationally, Janelle Ilacqua and Indiana Langford. Both can play the infield or the outfield, Ilacqua a solid hitter and Langford more of a high athleticism, Abby Ramirez-like player. Finally there are two players outside the national rankings, the aforementioned Maddie Erickson, who can also play 3B in addition to pitching, and then the annual unranked in-state recruit, Madi Ramey from Allen Park. Ramey is another infield/outfield position player with a touch of power but I don't have a ton else to say there. 

 

[JD Scott]

A Lineup Guess

Well, I'm only guessing so much this year since I cheated and waited until after the first game. Bonnie Tholl opted to go with the all-returners (and transfers) lineup for the opener, and this is what it looked like: 

1. Lexie Blair, CF

2. Ellie Mataya, RF

3. Keke Tholl, C

4. Audrey LeClair, 3B

5. Melina Livingston, 2B

6. Ellie Sieler, LF 

7. Lexi Voss, DP

8. Ryleigh Carricaburu, 1B 

9. Ella McVey, SS

Unless a number of players make substantial leaps, it's hard to see that lineup doing much of anything, if I'm being frank. Which is why you have to hope for big improvement or (perhaps more likely) a number of freshmen pulling through. Tholl hitting in the three spot makes me believe the plan is for her to play a major part of this team, so the spots I'd be curious to see whether freshmen emerge are in the 6-8 holes. Carricaburu herself is such a wildcard, and Voss and Sieler to this point have not shown enough to make me believe they will hold those jobs down permanently. And when you have talented players like Vallimont, Fantucci, Ilacqua, and Langford waiting in the wings, there should be competition. 

The way I see it is Blair, Mataya, LeClair, Livingston, and McVey are locked into jobs and the other four are up for grabs. Tholl, given her spot here, is likely on an inside track to hold one of the four down, be it at C or DP. And the team loves Sieler's defense, so she starts with a leg up, but the question mark of her hitting will loom. The rest? Wide open. I expect quite a bit of shuffling as the year goes along, not just in who is getting starts, but where they are hitting in the batting order. So don't take the opening lineup too seriously. 

 

[JD Scott]

The Schedule

Michigan's got a loaded schedule again this year. After tussling with a solid USF team last night, they get an easy few games down in Leesburg, FL, starting today against WKU, Colgate, and Portland State before it ramps up. Next weekend they're in Clearwater, FL, for the ESPN organized tournament, meaning every game will be on ESPN+. At that event Michigan will see #15 UCF, #20 Louisiana, #3 Oklahoma State, and #22 Duke, in addition to Mississippi State. After that they head to Palo Alto for a five game weekend that includes two with unranked Boise State and two with #11 Stanford. Then they jet down to Fullerton, CA for another meeting with UCF at the Judi Garman Classic, followed by #2 UCLA and #17 LSU, plus hosts Cal-State Fullerton and Seattle. Finally, after an interlude back in Ann Arbor with MAC opponents, Michigan finishes the non-conference in Lexington, getting two games with #16 Kentucky. Yeah, the non-con is going to be a test. 

Back home in the B1G, the king of the conference figures to be Northwestern, who made a run to last year's WCWS. They are slated to come to Ann Arbor in late April, and Michigan is scheduled to draw four of the other top five teams that made up the B1G's upper half last year (excluding themselves, obviously) in conference play. They go to Lincoln to face the Huskers, who finished 2nd in the league in 2022, bring 3rd in the B1G Illinois to Alumni Field, and go to Columbus for 6th in the B1G OSU. There don't seem to be many easy wins either, as Michigan did not draw the bottom barrel teams from last season on the schedule, Iowa and Minnesota. 

 

[JD Scott]

General Feelingsball

Well, a new era of Michigan Softball is upon us. Bonnie Tholl is in command, even though Carol Hutchins still looms large. After all, she signed nearly every player to this roster and the majority were still coached by Hutch for at least a year or two. It will take a few seasons before Bonnie Tholl has her players comprising the majority of the roster. So if this team struggles to hit for power, as I expect they will, we can't solely put that at the feet of Tholl. There is a grace period, where we ought to take in information before we get an evaluative sense of who Bonnie is as a coach. 

With that in mind, there's nothing else we can really say about this season as a whole other than it's a rebuild. Northwestern is a considerably better team on paper, so expecting to win the B1G is not realistic. Given where the program is and this roster of players are at, making the NCAA Tournament and keeping the streak alive should be the goal. If that happens, and freshmen or returning players take significant steps forward and look like they comprise the core of a team that can restore the Michigan standard in the future, that will be a success in my book. 

The fact is that Bonnie has not been left a ton to work with right off the bat. Plenty of talented players sure, but they're unproven or have seen developmental stall. Tholl will be tasked with integrating a talented freshman class and coaxing better results out of hitters to produce a more potent offense. And she will be working with Jen Brundage to rebuild a pitching staff that lost two above average arms who pitched more than 75% of Michigan's innings last year. Last year felt like an all-in year, with Beaubien coming back for a fifth season and upperclassmen hitters like Carson and Bump on the team. Unfortunately it fizzled out to a substandard campaign and now we get the fall afterwards, with exacerbated attrition stemming from Hutchins' retirement, which is only natural (Annabelle Widra transferred to Alabama, Sierra Kersten to Liberty, and Storako to Oklahoma). 

It's the dawn of a new day for Michigan Softball. I don't really know where it leads and whether this program can ever get back to the WCWS, though if Minnesota and Northwestern have done it in the last few seasons, there's no reason Michigan can't. Carol Hutchins is a program icon and one of the most important people to ever be a part of NCAA Softball, but anyone who's followed this program closely can also say it was probably time for a fresh set of eyes at the helm, which is undoubtedly a factor in Hutch's retirement. I personally was hoping for someone outside the program to come in and give it a new taste, but Bonnie loves Michigan and has paid her dues. I am willing to give her a chance and will support her leadership all the way. This year is going to have a different sort of feel, a lot of uncertainty but that can also mean fun and surprises. Even if year one comes with low expectations, I'm excited for softball season. Let's bring it on.