Hockey season is just around the corner, and it's time for another Michigan Hockey Season Preview! The Wolverines take the ice on Saturday night against Windsor for their exhibition game, before the regular season begins next Friday against Lindenwood. Today begins our first of four season preview pieces, cutting the roster into three pieces, freshmen forwards, returning forwards, defense + goalies, and then opponents/predictions at the end. Up first are the youngsters at forward. 

 

Position Preview: Freshmen Forwards

Last year I split the forwards into two, centers/maybe centers and true wingers. This year, due to a high percentage of the forward group being freshmen, I am much more unclear on who the centers will be. Michigan lost its four regular centers from last season (Beniers, Beecher, Bordeleau, Van Wyhe) in the offseason and if you asked me to guess who all four centers would be for this season, I'd only feel comfortable about naming two of them. Therefore, it felt better to break this up into age, as there are seven freshman forwards and eight returning forwards. Below are the seven new forwards, including the likely top scorers on the team. 

 

Adam Fantilli 

Year: Freshman

Height/Weight: 6-2, 195

NHL Draft Position: 2023 NHL Draft Eligible, projected 3rd overall 

Stats: ----

The crown jewel of the 2022 Michigan Hockey recruiting class is Adam Fantilli, and of course this is a class that had Nazar and Rutger McGroarty, two lottery picks, in it. If you type Fantilli's name into YouTube, the second video that pops up is titled "Did Adam Fantilli have the best USHL season of all time?" Uh huh. On a per-game basis, Fantilli was only outscored by four (non-USNTDP) players in the USHL last season. All four are at least a full calendar year older than him. OSU's Stephen Halliday, Denver's Aidan Thompson, and Mitchell Miller are all at least two full calendar years older. Fantilli was in a league where the best players are typically 19 or 20 and was neck-and-neck at 17. 

Adam Fantilli hails from the Toronto exurb of Nobleton, Ontario, and comes to Michigan by way of the Chicago Steel, following his (significantly less talented) older brother Luca, a fellow recruit who will be mentioned in the defense section. Fantilli, who will not turn 18 for another couple weeks, is in the same group that Owen Power and Matty Beniers were, a fall birthday who enrolled in college a year before being draft eligible. Fantilli is currently projected for the top three of the 2023 NHL Draft, trailing only Connor Bedard (who he is very unlikely to pass) and Matvei Michkov (who he may pass in part due to concerns surrounding Russian players' ability to leave their home country in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine). 3rd overall is a pretty gaudy position already but let me feed your interest further with this: as it stands right now, if Fantilli had been eligible in the 2021 Draft, the one that saw Power and Beniers go 1-2, Fantilli would've been picked ahead of either of those guys. 

So what makes Adam Fantilli so special? He's a rare combination of size, skating ability, skill, shooting, and IQ. A toolsy prospect who possesses almost everything that scouts want, Fantilli is a 6'2" puck-hound with a polished defensive game who can dig in the corners and also pull off highlight reel passes and lacrosse goals. That just doesn't come around too often! He's one of the most physical forwards to be in the #1-3 overall discussion in an NHL Draft in some time, hunting out prey on the ice to smoke, while also still being a really good skater and passer. Combine that with an NHL-ready shot that could make him a solid goalscorer at that level right now and you can see the gigantic ceiling that NHL GMs are salivating over. 

Like Nazar, there are some drawbacks, and things scouts will be watching for. He didn't complete enough of his passes in the USHL last season, and sometimes his dekes were the wrong decision, with a better passing lane available and missed. Those may affect Fantilli in the college game, but it's more nit-picky stuff that hockey nerds like me are going to debate when we talk about if he should go 1st overall... not whether he should steamroll the B1G. Which he should. When NHL scouts are in the building at Yost this fall, they will primarily be there to watch Adam Fantilli. All eyes are on him. 

Season Expectations: Finding a statistical comparison for Fantilli is difficult because very few players have ever scored at that pace in a D-1 campaign (the year before your draft eligible season), let alone on a non-USNTDP USHL team. The two most similar are Thomas Vanek and Kyle Connor. The former put up 31-31-62 in 45 games for Minnesota as a freshman, and Connor scored 35-36-71 in 38 games as a freshman for Michigan. Perhaps the most apt comparison for Fantilli is Jack Eichel, who played with the USNTDP but was similarly a 17-turning-18 draft eligible prospect poised for the top three of a coming draft with superstar labels attached who did the odd thing of playing college hockey. Eichel scored 26-45-71 in 40 games for Boston U his one season in college. It feels really hard to say about an incoming freshman "he has to be the best player in college hockey", but if Adam Fantilli wants to catch Connor Bedard and go first overall... he's probably gotta be the best player in college hockey. 

1.00 PPG is the floor for Fantilli, if scouting projections are correct, with the gaudy production mentioned above being what scouts will want to see. In terms of his role on the team, Fantilli should be one of the top two centers, play all situations (PP, 5v5, PK), and ideally drive a line that is more focused on below the dots bumping and grinding, as opposed to Frank Nazar's flash-and-dash centric game. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More NHL first rounders]

 

[Rena Laverty/USA Hockey]

Frank Nazar 

Year: Freshman

Height/Weight: 5-10, 175 

NHL Draft Position: 13th overall, 2022 NHL Draft, Chicago 

Stats: -----

The #1 trait that Michigan Hockey looks for in recruits is speed/skating ability. The coaching staff under Mel Pearson was hyper-focused on getting the best skaters in each recruiting class every year and Frank Nazar fits that bill to a tee. He may well have been the best pure skater in the 2022 NHL Entry Draft and the way he plays the game seems like he was made to play at Michigan under this staff. Nazar is a Mt. Clemens native and a product of the USNTDP, which means he's already played at Yost Ice Arena, back in February during the USNTDP vs. Michigan exhibition. Nazar looked excellent in that one, scoring a pair of goals and leading his team in shots with 5. It was not unlike when Thomas Bordeleau came to Yost with the USNTDP in 2019-20, looked like the best player on the ice against college kids, then strolled in that fall and... was the best player on the ice. There's no way to know if Nazar will be that level of player right away, but he very well could be. 

The skating ability is what Frank Nazar hangs his hat on. At 5'10", 175, he's an undersized forward and that fact drew plenty of debate in NHL Draft circles, but no one will argue that Nazar can fly. He's fast in a straight line, but also good on his edges, fluid crossing over, and with a full range of motion and ability to change speeds. What made Nazar a lottery pick, unlike his fellow freshman Jackson Hallum, is that Nazar can do a lot more than just skate. He pairs tremendous vision, soft hands, and an above-average shot to be an explosive playmaker. Nazar's hockey IQ is top notch and the level of manipulation he displays on a routine basis has a shot to make him a high-end NHLer. 

Below is his highlight footage. Ignore the corny soundtrack and enjoy the no-look passes, the headfakes, and the dazzling speed: 

Nazar has a shot that makes him a weapon from inside the hashes, where he does a lot of his work, but he can also find passing lanes from the perimeter. The skating made him the USNTDP's best transitional forward and he will be able to do a ton of damage off the rush at Michigan. Though he is not a big guy, Nazar is surprisingly physical, willing to use his body to bully his way to the inside lane and fight for positioning. The concerns in NHL Draft circles were around his size and ability to play center (things that are reduced worries in the NCAA), as well as his defensive play and occasional tendency to do too much.

In that way, in Michigan terms, I think that Nazar is something like a hybrid of Thomas Bordeleau and Kent Johnson. Hands similar to Bordeleau, as well as the ability to play fast and the vision paired with it, while Nazar's finesse is more like Johnson, as well as the middling defensive game and tendency to overthink things at times. You could even toss in Matty Beniers, whose shot was better than either Bordeleau or Johnson and more directly comparable to Nazar. Nazar is an amalgam of some of the best forwards on Michigan's squad last season and should be one of the very best players on this year's team, even as a freshman. 

Season Exepctations: It feels pretty easy to pencil Nazar in as one of Michigan's top two centers. Ideally you want someone who can shoot and play fast with him (*screaming* MACKIE SAMOSKEVICH *screaming*) but we will see what Brandon Naurato dials up. Nazar will get extensive PP time and offensive zone shifts, while likely not having a huge role on the penalty kill. Johnson/Bordeleau/Beniers were all close to 1.00 points-per-game as freshmen in similar roles so that feels like a good expectation for Nazar's production. 

 

Jackson Hallum 

Year: Freshman

Height/Weight: 6-0, 183 

NHL Draft Position: 91st overall, 2020 NHL Draft, Vegas

Stats: ---- 

Jackson Hallum is one of those guys whose scouting report has one thing on it. That one thing is the word "fast". One of the fastest skaters in the 2020 NHL Draft, Hallum was only a third round pick because of a lack of skills besides his speed, but everyone agrees he can skate like the wind. An author at The Hockey Writers summed it up as "when you watch film on (Hallum), it takes very little time to realize that he is the fastest player on the ice and it isn’t even close". It was that speed, borderline plus-plus at the NHL level, that led Vegas to draft him with a mid-round pick despite the one-dimensional profile and the fact that Hallum was a prep player at the time. 

Hallum's trajectory to get to this point is rather unusual. He chose to play HS hockey in Minnesota, doing so during his draft-eligible season and part of his D+1 season, being picked in the 2020 Draft as one of the youngest players in that draft (he is a early September 2002 birthday, just before the cutoff line). After his HS career ended, he went to the USHL to play for the Green Bay Gamblers, later being traded to the Dubuque Fighting Saints last season. The significant step up in competition moving from HS to the USHL gave us a better feel for Hallum's capabilities and the results were positive. Hallum's 1.13 PPG clip in that league was one of the 15 best and has him poised to transition well to the NCAA.  

Footage and scouting on Hallum is pretty limited, and what does exist talks about the speed over and over again. He's played at the Vegas development camp and coverage from those appearances on Golden Knights fan blogs noted that Hallum was the fastest skater in the camp, drawing penalties and creating scoring chances because of his speed but not converting on a high number of those right now. That's about the most I can give you. 

Season Expectations: There's no question to me that Hallum's speed is going to translate to the NCAA. If what everyone says is true, he's going to be the fastest skater on Michigan's team and the question comes down to how the coaching staff wants to use that weapon. In the press release from the program talking about the recruiting class, Bill Muckalt said that Hallum will play on the penalty kill, and it seems like you have to put him there. I don't know what level of defensive player Hallum is, but even if he's a non-factor defensively, playing him as the forward up high on the PK is such a weapon going the other way as soon as a turnover is created that the opposition's PP has to account for it. Beyond that, Hallum will likely either play in a top six role as a winger, or he could be a 3C. Though I think his playing style would mesh with Nazar, I would almost prefer to see Hallum play on the third line and drive transitional play for that line. Either way, he's going to do a lot of his damage off the rush. 

 

[TheAthletic.com]

Rutger McGroarty

Year: Freshman 

Height/Weight: 6-1, 200

NHL Draft Position: 14th overall, 2022 NHL Draft, Winnipeg 

Stats: -----

Michigan flipped this ex-Notre Dame commit last fall and in doing so, the Wolverines did something rather unique: they signed a player whose weakness as a prospect is his skating. Stunning! McGroarty is a prospect with a lot of things to like, but the biggest drawback in his profile was his skating ability, making him an anomaly in terms of the kinds of players Michigan goes after. To that I say it was about damn time. Not that skating isn't important, but those who have watched Michigan Hockey struggle with Notre Dame over the past five years know the value in having a guy who can go into the corners and get the puck. If you can't beat them (Notre Dame), flip their crown jewel commit, I guess. 

McGroarty is not a giant prospect, but he is filled out and muscular. His game revolves around his ability to bang around the walls on the forecheck and then read the play to know where to be to receive a pass. Rutger's signature skill is getting to the back post for tap-ins, but his shot is NHL-level too. Most of his highlight clips are McGroarty receiving passes in a shooting posture and then wiring it by the goaltender: 

McGroarty's hands are also pretty decent for a player his size, but the skating is the question mark. Scouts like his quick feet, which can help him win close races, but his awkward, hunched-over skating stride limits his top speed. You can see instances in a couple of those clips above where McGroarty is unable to gain separation against USHL defenders on the rush, not something you typically see from a lottery pick. That said, skating is something guys can work on, and the rest of the toolkit, which includes his leadership and intangibles (he was the USNTDP's captain), are very good. McGroarty is probably not going to be an on-puck facilitator at Michigan, but paired with a play-driving center, McGroarty could be a very dangerous power forward who scores goals, adds an edge to the team, and is a perfect complementary winger. 

Season Expectations: Personally, I would love to see McGroarty play with Adam Fantilli. Toss in another grinding winger like a Mark Estapa, and you'd have a line that would be very very difficult to stop below the dots and along the wall. They'd be able to control play off the cycle against most teams in the NCAA and I think that role fits perfectly for Rutger. He's going to play in the top six this season, is going to get PP time (wouldn't be surprised to see him play netfront or as a shooter), and should be an impact piece right away. Past Michigan freshmen drafted in roughly that slot (mid-teens) include Josh Norris, Dylan Larkin, and Kyle Connor. A bit of variation there, but close to a point-per-game given talent level and role seems like a fair expectation.

 

Gavin Brindley

Year: Freshman

Height/Weight: 5-9, 170 

NHL Draft Position: 2023 NHL Draft eligible, projected 1st round pick

Stats: -----

Brindley is another classic Michigan forward prospect, undersized, a good skater, and extremely skilled. Brindley is like Fantilli, a late 2004 birthday who missed the cutoff for the 2022 NHL Draft, but he is also ready for NCAA Hockey. Last year with the Tri-City Storm, Brindley scored 42 points in 51 games, a very respectable pace for a player who was only 17 years old in that league. No, it's not Fantilli production at that same age, but that's why Brindley is seen as a back-end of the first round prospect and not a top three pick. Brindley also got to play for Team USA at the U18s, scoring 4 points in 6 games and there's a decent bit of scouting on him as a result. 

I will let The Hockey News summarize Brindley from that tournament: 

Brindley is a slick undersized forward who makes those around him better as a playmaker. He isn’t as fleet of foot as you would ideally like to see from a player his size but he makes up for it with a consistently engaged motor. Rarely lacking effort, Brindley is always looking to find pockets off space off the puck, fighting his way into the net-front areas. There has been a number of times this year where the Tri-City Storm forward is being battered around as he recovers a puck in traffic but he has the ability to battle through it and make a play. The Florida product is a true gamer who has pinpoint passing ability.

Reading that reminds me some of Dylan Duke, another undersized prospect who is not dissuaded by his size and is willing to fight tooth and nail to get to the tough areas. Most scouting reports agree with that description of Brindley as a high-motor, high-effort player, one who can play on both the PP and the PK, while Scott Wheeler talked about how Brindley's defensive fundamentals could allow him to play a bottom six role. Skating is a bit more mixed, with this write-up faulting his mobility a bit relative to his size, while others are much more uniformly positive when discussing Brindley's edgework and speed.  

Brindley is considered more of a playmaker than a goalscorer, but scouts do like his shot, and as a whole, you have a well-rounded prospect. He may not go as highly in the draft next summer as he should, because size will always be a concern, but that is only so important for NCAA considerations. On his own as a recruit, Brindley would be an impressive get. That he is Michigan's 4th-best forward recruit in this class is pretty outrageous. 

Season Expectations: Brindley is another player who slots in very comfortably in the top nine. He has the skill and offensive ability to be an impact scorer right off the bat, though I think Brindley may be closer to Mackie Samoskevich last year than Bordeleau in 2020-21, let's say. That's still a very useful player, as Samoskevich had 29 points in 40 games last season. I would wager that Brindley will be on the 2nd or 3rd line (I would have him on the third line in my ideal line construction), PP2, and perhaps some PK time here and there. Not a starring role, but again, when this kind of talent is one of your role player forwards, you are a national title contender. 

 

A younger Kienan Draper [his twitter] 

Kienan Draper 

Year: Freshman

Height/Weight: 6-0/183 

NHL Draft Position: 187th overall, 2020 NHL Draft, Detroit 

Stats: ------

First of all, yes, Kienan Draper is the son of long-time Red Wings center Kris Draper. He was drafted in the 7th round by the Red Wings back in 2020 and it is worth noting that Kris is the Director of Amateur Scouting in Detroit (i.e. the guy in charge of the draft). Is that nepotism? I don't know, by the time you get to the 7th round, you're throwing darts at the dart board anyway and mostly tabbing players who one scout in your room fell in love with. Could that be Kris in love with his own son? Maybe. 

But that's the backstory. The player Kienan Draper actually is figures to be the NCAA clone of Kris. Just read the excerpt on Draper released by the program from Naurato: 

A right-handed, big power forward that can skate and rip the puck off the pass. Takes pride in playing a 200-foot game and shutting down the opposing team's top players at even strength and on the penalty kill. Another natural born leader who was drafted by the Detroit Red Wings 

Skating? Check. 200-foot game/defense at 5v5? Check. PK? Check. "natural born leader"? Check. The only component of that blurb that does not sound exactly like what Kris Draper was at the NHL level was is the "rip the puck off the pass" part, since no one ever referred to Kris as a pure shooter. Kienan Draper played with the Chilliwack Chiefs of the BCHL last season and posted a decent 50 points in 53 games. He played in the USHL with Omaha the year prior and struggled to make any offensive impact (7 points in 37 games), so I think the offensive baseline is likely very limited here. Perhaps the heavy shot allows him to be a little bit of a threat at Michigan but the best comparison, given all the information available to me, is that Draper is here to be the Garrett Van Wyhe replacement as the 4th line, defense-only center. 

Season Expectations: Michigan is thin on forwards this year, with only 15 in total, and that's counting Jay Keranen as a full-time forward. There are nine players who seem to slot in pretty comfortably into the top three lines (Duke, Samoskevich, Fantilli, Nazar, McGroarty, Estapa, Hallum, Brindley, Ciccolini), so the remaining six are clawing for those fourth line minutes. In reality, Nolan Moyle is a lock to be an every night player on the fourth line, so it's really five players fighting for the remaining couple spots. Draper, if he can play center effectively, would seem to have an inside track over Keranen, Granowicz, TJ Hughes, and Philippe Lapointe. If he is able to snag an every-night role on the 4th line, I would expect single digit points but heavy minutes in the defensive zone and on the PK. Which is an important job, even if not the flashiest one.  

 

TJ Hughes

Year: Freshman

Height/Weight: 6-0/185 

NHL Draft Position: N/A

Stats: ------

No, TJ Hughes is not a member of that Hughes family. The first way you know that is he's from Hamilton, Ontario, in a tried and true Canadian family and thus not the First Family of USA Hockey. Michigan didn't formally add Hughes to the class until late May of this year, a very late addition and Hughes is the only mega-overager in this freshman forward class. Draper and Hallum are both 2002 birthdays, while Hughes is a November *2001* birthday. He was never on anyone's NHL Draft radar and didn't become the sort of player who might be a take at Michigan until this past season, when he exploded in the AJHL with the Brooks Bandits. Hughes had 67 points in 78 career AJHL games entering the 2021-22 season when he then posted 66 goals and 61 assists for 127 points in 60 games. Hughes and teammate Ryan McAllister (now at WMU) were the top two scorers in the AJHL last season by a wide margin and leading the league in goals made Michigan interested in Hughes. 

Beyond that statistical profile, very little is known about Hughes. The AJHL is not a league that is widely covered and having never been on NHL Draft boards, we don't have the sort of scouting materials typically available. Naurato's quote in the press release when Hughes was added to the team suggested that Michigan is taking Hughes as a scorer/PP contributor, but it's hard to see how he will get a regular top six role on this team, given the talent of the guys he's up against. Perhaps Hughes is simply ready to pop in the NCAA, but it's more likely that he's a developmental player. What he did in the AJHL is extremely impressive, but that is not a great league and he was on the older end for that league. Tempering expectations is a good idea here. 

Season Expectations: Again, barring a surprising readiness to hack it in college hockey, Hughes is most likely a rotational player this year. Perhaps you see him in against Lindenwood or MSU, or if there are significant injuries, but probably not in other cases of full health. His skillset doesn't make it seem likely that Hughes will be vying for one of those fourth line spots, so pencilling him in as a depth player as a freshman makes the most sense.