Previously: Preseason Hoops Mailbag, The Story, Big Ten Roundtable Parts One and Two, Schedule Release, Guards, Wings, Bigs, Season Preview Podcast

The season starts in mere minutes, so let's get right to it.

Who's Going to Start?

I'm going to preface the answer to my own question by saying the closing lineup and overall minutes distribution may end up mattering a lot more than the starting lineup. I could see, for example, Juwan Howard wanting to start a traditional center but playing small-ball to close games because that emerges as his best group. The difference between some rotation players is small enough that we could see starting lineup changes based on matchup. There's a lot on the table.

Instead of taking one stab at this, I'm going to run down a few options and list the positives/negatives of each. For the sake of keeping things simple and also because I believe this is how it'll shake out, I have Hunter Dickinson ahead of Austin Davis as the top traditional center option.

Mike Smith - Chaundee Brown - Franz Wagner - Isaiah Livers - Hunter Dickinson

Positives: Smith gives the team added scoring punch and a second pick-and-roll ballhandler to complement Wagner. The three wings are all switchable defenders. Dickinson's size is going to give a lot of defenders problems and he's got some potential as a pick-and-pop big.

Negatives: The defense with this group probably won't be elite between having the diminutive Ivy League transfer at the point and a freshman center who isn't the most mobile player. If Smith isn't a Big Ten-quality pick-and-roll ballhandler, a lot falls on Wagner's shoulders. Have to play drop pick-and-roll coverage with Dickinson.

[Hit THE JUMP for more lineup combos and more questions.]

Eli Brooks - Franz Wagner - Isaiah Livers - Brandon Johns Jr. - Hunter Dickinson

Positives: Absolutely massive lineup—Livers is the second-shortest player at a burly 6'7—that has major defensive potential and plenty of shooting. Brooks is another high-level defender and potential secondary creator. Dickinson and Johns could be a nightmare combination on the glass. I have no idea how most teams match up with Wagner as the functional two on offense. Allows Brown to be the primary backup at all three wing positions and Smith to pick his spots as a bench gunner.

Negatives: Other than Brooks, this group might be exploited by quicker guards on defense. Have to play drop pick-and-roll coverage with Dickinson. May be a little shooting deficient outside of Wagner/Livers.

Eli Brooks - Chaundee Brown - Franz Wagner - Isaiah Livers - Brandon Johns Jr.

Positives: Every player is switchable on defense to at least a certain extent, including (and most notably) Johns at center, which opens up the full gamut of pick-and-roll strategies. On offense, can play five-out with everyone a viable three-point shooter, opening up driving lanes. Could run teams ragged in transition. Might be the lineup that gets the best five out there. Saves Dickinson for the right matchup and helps limit his minutes if conditioning is an issue.

Negatives: A lot of pressure on Johns as a rim protector, rebounder, and pick-and-roll screener. No behemoth at the rim. Might be best as a situational unit.

Mike Smith - Chaundee Brown - Franz Wagner - Isaiah Livers - Brandon Johns Jr.

Same as the above with more shooting and worse defense at point guard.

Mike Smith - Eli Brooks - Franz Wagner - Isaiah Livers - Hunter Dickinson

Positives: Three viable ballhandlers and lots of shooting on the floor. Should run clean offensive sets and be able to create in late-clock situations. Lots of potential pick-and-roll/pop duos on the floor with some fun off-ball possibilities as well. Can match up against quicker backcourts while still having plenty of size up front. Bench unit now has two big-time energy guys in Brown and Johns.

Negatives: Can't switch much at all with this five. Backcourt is small. Could struggle defending the pick-and-roll if opponents isolate Smith/Dickinson. Have to play drop pick-and-roll coverage with Dickinson.

If I had to guess based on best fit and a probably fruitless attempt to read the press conference tea leaves, the first lineup I listed (Smith-Brown-Wagner-Livers-Dickinson) is the one I expect to start this afternoon. I'd also assume this team will try multiple starting lineups before Big Ten play begins. There are no shortage of options.

What Are the Biggest Tactical Changes from Last Year?

A top three.

1. A more egalitarian offense. This is inevitable with the graduation of Zavier Simpson, who needed to have the ball in his hands for the offense to function at a high level. While Michigan won't have an individual passer on Simpson's level, they'll be able to run offense through more players because the point guard will no longer be a non-shooter. There's a lot of skill on this team and we should see a usage distribution similar to 2014, when Nik Stauskas was the lead ballhandler with a relatively low 24% usage and two other starters finished above 20%.

2. Fewer high ball screens. Another knock-on effect of losing Simpson is Michigan is both likely to lose some pick-and-roll acumen—even if Wagner breaks out—and less likely to have to rely on it. M ran pick-and-rolls on nearly 38% of their possessions last season, the ninth-highest rate in the country; they also ranked in the 96th percentile on such plays because Simpson was a screen-manipulating wizard.

Howard added more variety to the offense last year and should put in even more of his preferred playbook now that he has a year under is belt and doesn't have a point guard who requires extreme screen-heavy offense. I expect to see more double stagger sets, a lot more horns to take advantage of Dickinson's passing (see the GIF above), and plenty more.

3. More variety on defense—situationally. Howard stuck almost exclusively to drop coverage against high ball screens last year and there were certain matchups—Wisconsin comes to mind—in which that became a problem, generally against stretch bigs. Johns is getting talked up as a viable small-ball center option after coming on strong in that role late last year and that could change Michigan's outlook, and tactics, significantly in certain games. We're going to see more switching regardless with the glut of lanky wings.

Is This Franz's Stauskas Year?

I think so. Pardon me for the self-quote:

There are a number of reasons to be bullish on Wagner's outlook. He shot over 60% on two-pointers both on the whole season and in Big Ten play. Only 14 freshmen in Bart Torvik's database (which dates back to 2007-08) have cracked 60% on twos in Big Ten games (min. 50 attempts); almost all were high-level college players and several were NBA prospects, including Cody Zeller, Glenn Robinson III, Kaleb Wesson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Sam Dekker, and Thomas Bryant.

Wagner also pulled a rare statistical feat on the other end of the floor, recording block and steal rates over 2% in conference play. The list of Big Ten freshmen to accomplish that since 2007-08 is 20 players long and also features a number of notable names, Robbie Hummel, Joe Wieskamp, Ethan Happ, Justin Jackson, Branden Dawson, Mitch McGary, OG Anunoby, Evan Turner, and Aaron Henry chief among them.

The only player to make both lists is Franz Wagner.

The term "unicorn" is generally (over-)applied to centers who can shoot threes and protect the rim. Wagner is the 6'10 wing equivalent. Once his outside shot started falling down the stretch last year, he played at an all-conference level, and he's going to get every opportunity this year to take the lead on this offense and push for some postseason honors.

Back To Playing Time: How Does The Rotation Shake Out?

Argh, I was hoping to avoid this. Here's a wild-ass guess.

PG: Smith 20, Brooks 15, Jackson 5
SG: Brown 15, Wagner 15, Brooks 10
SF: Wagner 20, Livers 10, Brown 10
PF: Livers 20, Johns 20
C: Dickinson 20, Johns 10, Davis 10

Position designations at SG, SF, and PF won't matter very much unless one of the true guards is playing the two. There's no way to do this without feeling like I'm shorting someone minutes; it feels like Smith, Brooks, Brown, Dickinson, Johns, Davis, and even Livers could all see more minutes than I give them here, it's just hard to find room without taking some minutes away from another deserving player.

This is one of those good problems. I still don't envy the coaching staff having to sift through this rotation.

Do We Reach the Postseason?

Michigan, in a vacuum? Absolutely. They have top-level talent and great depth. I've said or written some variation of the word "versatile" so many times in the last week that it should be removed from my vocabulary by force. I believe in Juwan Howard as a tactician and leader who can manage the inevitable bruised egos that result from a crowded rotation. This is going to be a good team, maybe even a championship team.

But do we reach the postseason? The question is hard to avoid when this is happening on the opening day of the season:

Man, I don't know. I want to believe there's a safe way to pull off a college basketball season, because the NCAA and its member schools sure as hell are going to try. Then again, we're already into the dozens in cancelations/postponements, the neutral site events have all but collapsed, and the pandemic shows no signs of slowing across the country.

I hope they find a way. I also hope, more than that, they step up and protect these athletes (and everyone else involved with these programs) if it becomes clear this isn't feasible. We're not there yet, at least not by the standard set by college football, but there are going to be some tough decision to make. With lives in the balance, I can only hope the powers that be make the correct ones.