raise a finger if you're the team's top option [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Hoops Preview 2021: Wings Comment Count

Ace November 23rd, 2020 at 3:48 PM

Previously: Preseason Hoops MailbagThe Story, Big Ten Roundtable Parts One and TwoSchedule Release, Guards

This is where the roster starts to get fascinating. Michigan features four experienced, versatile wing-type players (one of whom, Brandon Johns, will be covered with the bigs) who could all conceivably slot their way into the starting lineup; there's also a chance two of them come off the bench.

One of them, Isaiah Livers, nearly departed for the NBA Draft before coming back to play his senior year. He's not even the headliner, at least around these parts.

#21 Franz Wagner

Year: Sophomore
Height/Weight: 6'9/220
Key Counting Stats: 30.7 MPG, 11.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.5 TOPG, 1.3 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 61%/31%/83% (2P/3P/FT)
Key Advanced Stats: 18.5% usage, 16.8 DR%, 5.9 assist rate, 15.0 TO rate

Wagner is the player most likely to be responsible for taking this team from good to great, should they reach that level. He finished in a three-way tie for the fourth spot on the unofficial Big Ten media poll's all-conference first team. No other Wolverine received a vote.

There are a number of reasons to be bullish on Wagner's outlook. He shot over 60% on two-pointers both on the whole season and in Big Ten play. Only 14 freshmen in Bart Torvik's database (which dates back to 2007-08) have cracked 60% on twos in Big Ten games (min. 50 attempts); almost all were high-level college players and several were NBA prospects, including Cody Zeller, Glenn Robinson III, Kaleb Wesson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Sam Dekker, and Thomas Bryant.

Wagner also pulled a rare statistical feat on the other end of the floor, recording block and steal rates over 2% in conference play. The list of Big Ten freshmen to accomplish that since 2007-08 is 20 players long and also features a number of notable names, Robbie Hummel, Joe Wieskamp, Ethan Happ, Justin Jackson, Branden Dawson, Mitch McGary, OG Anunoby, Evan Turner, and Aaron Henry chief among them.

The only player to make both lists is Franz Wagner.

[Hit THE JUMP for more Franz, Livers, Chaundee Brown, and the rest.]

So that's a good start. Wagner is a long, disruptive defender who may be getting longer; reports from the preseason say he's now 6'10 and he's up 15 pounds from last year on the official roster. While still refining his abilities as an on-ball defender, Wagner is already a problem for opponents playing off the ball, which lets him jump passing lanes and throw an arm up out of nowhere to block shots. That added muscle should help him hold up better on the ball this season, and he's got rim-protecting potential there, too:

That's 245-pound Ron Harper Jr. getting tossed to the deck. Wagner has some issues with players taking him off the dribble, though he should improve in that area as a sophomore, and he'll be able to play in a switching scheme.

Wagner is obviously finishing at a high level already with a two-point percentage that good. His long arms are an asset around the hoop and he has a good feel for how to prevent rim protectors from timing his shot. He flashed the ability last year to be a different type of pick-and-roll ballhandler from Michigan's two point guard options:

  P&R Plays (Own Offense) PPP on Own Offense (%ile) P&R Plays (Passes) PPP on Passes (%ile) Total P&R Plays Overall P&R PPP. (%ile) Keep %
Zavier Simpson 209 0.746 (53%) 360 1.139 (85%) 569 0.995 (85%) 36.7%
David DeJulius 63 0.889 (81%) 73 0.986 (61%) 136 0.941 (78%) 46.3%
Eli Brooks 50 0.760 (57%) 75 1.080 (78%) 125 0.952 (79%) 40.0%
Franz Wagner 22 1.000 (93%) 15 1.000 (65%) 37 1.000 (88%) 59.5%
Isaiah Livers 22 0.727 (49%) 10 1.000 (65%) 32 0.812 (47%) 66.7%

Wagner drives to score. That said, he passed enough out of the pick and roll—way more than he did in other scenarios, actually—to keep defenses honest and indicate he could take on a much larger share of lead ballhandler duties. This is pretty patience and manipulation of the defense:

Here he sees an opening in the defense before the screen arrives, goes early, and makes a tough wraparound pass in traffic to Brandon Johns for a corner three. Here he recognizes a poor rotation and makes a pass over a double team across the grain of the play; this looks easy in large part because he's so tall. Even before discussing Wagner's outside shot—we're getting there—he's a dangerous pick-and-roll player with a lot of upside to explore.

There's another side to that pick-and-roll, too. Wagner is an intriguing screen-setter, either in a traditional pick-and-roll or Juwan Howard's staple double drag. Wagner can roll to the hoop, pop out for three, or slip the screen and do either of those. He's also the rare pop/pass threat:

The Stauskas Leap is well within reach. Speaking of which, we finally get to Wagner's swing attribute: three-point shooting. A broken shooting wrist delayed his Michigan debut nearly a month and may have impacted his form for much of the season, as Wagner hit only 31% of his 132 attempts. The season came to an abrupt end just as he appeared to be finding his stroke; he made 10-of-24 threes (42%) and averaged 16.6 points in the final five games.

Playing next to Eli Brooks, he took over as lead dog in Friday's intrasquad scrimmage, according to UMHoops:

Franz Wagner: Wagner scored 26 points on 18 shots on a roster where he presumably played almost exclusively at the two-guard and his team won the game handily. That’s not going to do anything to slow down the offseason hype for Wagner on this site. I’m told that he was most effective using his height and length to finish inside over smaller defenders, even Isaiah Livers.

If Wagner shoots anywhere near 40% from beyond the arc, he's a lock to make first-team all-conference. I anticipate he gets there. So does Phil Martelli, it appears.

His shooting was a big focus. His numbers were not what he expected nor accepted. His play off the dribble has really been extraordinary. His finishes at the rim. Even though he’s very young, he’s had so many basketball experiences, he is really a veteran player. He’s a joy to be around as a young person and on the basketball court, I marvel at where he’ll go and where I think he could take us this year. He’s an extraordinary player.

That's great news for Michigan and not-so-great news for those hoping he plays a junior season in college, but the latter bit is an issue for another day. Enjoy this unique player for as long as he suits up in Ann Arbor.

#2 Isaiah Livers

Year: Senior
Height/Weight: 6'7/230
Key Counting Stats: 31.5 MPG, 12.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.9 TOPG, 49%/40%/96%(!)
Key Advanced Stats: 17.9% usage, 6.4 assist rate, 8.8 TO rate, 2.1 block%, 22.1 FTRate

A lot of what I wrote about Wagner can also be applied to Livers. His size is a problem for most college wings; he's a load to handle for most 2/3s and too quick/skilled for the average 4, and he's able to defend across that entire spectrum. Unlike Wagner, the expectation for good on-ball defense isn't projection; Livers graded out in the 87th percentile as the primary defender, according to Synergy, and that matches the eye test.

Livers can also be utilized in a number of ways on offense, though he's a better off-ball threat and less of a shot creator than Wagner. Those same double drag plays with Wagner as a screener apply to Livers, who's an excellent shooter off the catch:

Livers is 93-for-224 (42%) from beyond the arc over the last two seasons. He plays within himself, perhaps too much so at times—his Big Ten-best turnover rate of 3.7% last year screams "not creating enough." One of the reasons he came back instead of taking the NBA leap is because he needed to show there's more to his offense than jumpers and transition finishes.

If Livers can get to the basket more frequently, probably by attacking more closeouts, then he'll be able to more frequently deploy what emerged as an elite skill last year: he made 44/46 free throws, including a perfect 34/34 run in B1G games. With Michigan's glut of wings, Livers should be able to take advantage of more mismatches this year. He does need to tighten up his dribble, which may have been a reason why he was hesitant to drive last year; his ability to beat a closeout off the bounce and finish is probably the number one thing NBA GMs want to see him add to his game, so I imagine he's been working hard on it.

Even if he's mostly the same player as last year, though, he'll be a major piece on what should be a Big Ten contender. A recurring groin injury cost Livers ten games of his junior season and cut short two more. When he wasn't out there, M's shooting—and offense in general—fell off a cliff, dropping seven points per 100 possessions without him on the floor, according to Hoop Lens (body bag games removed). The defense got three points worse. In total, the Wolverines were ten points per 100 possessions worse without Livers last year, which is bigger than the gap between Michigan and Northwestern last year.

Livers will get time at both the three and four, depending on whether Howard is going big at center or playing Johns there. Livers has even seen some time as a small-ball center in the past, though that's a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option with Johns and two traditional big men available. He'll be one of two perimeter defensive aces, along with the next player on the list, and the team's go-to catch-and-shoot threat.

#15 Chaundee Brown

Year: Senior
Height/Weight: 6'5/215
Key Counting Stats (at Wake Forest): 28.2 MPG, 12.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.6 TOPG, 51%/33%/83%
Key Advanced Stats: 21.4% usage, 6.7 off. rebound%, 18.7 def. reb.%, 14.7 TO rate, 36.0 FT Rate

A grad transfer from Wake Forest, Brown missed eight games to a leg injury last season, and the 13-18 Demon Deacons didn't provide the best environment for putting up great numbers. If you just look at the KenPom page, Brown doesn't jump out; he shot 50% from two and 33% from three on decent-but-not-high usage and saw his O-Rating drop near 100 against quality competition.

This is a case where the number don't tell the whole story. Not those numbers, at least. I like the numbers that show how much better Wake Forest was at basketball when Brown was on the court, via Hoop Lens (again, body bag games removed):

Brown was Wake's Livers; they were 11 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court because of his significant contributions on both ends.

Brown is at his best when he can body smaller players off the dribble, generally when they're attacking closeouts. His points tend to come outside the structure of the offense. He's a great offensive rebounder for being 6'5, a good cutter, and passable spot-up shooter—if you're looking for a Michigan comparison, a burlier, less bouncy Glenn Robinson III comes to mind, at least stylistically. Drawing fouls is also a strength and he converts free throws at a career 83% clip.

On Tim McCormick's podcast recently, Brown revealed how he approaches the game, and it's exactly the way this team needs him to approach it:

ON WHERE THE ‘DOG’ IS COMING FROM IN THIS TEAM

I think myself, honestly. I think I bring a lot of energy on the floor. It starts on the defensive end. Holding all four guys on the court, and even the entire team, accountable. Starting from the defensive end. We know that defense wins games so just bringing the energy that I have. Playing with my aggression. I really feel like my energy will help the team.

While Brown can be a double-double guy—he had three last season and two as a sophomore—his primary role on this team is going to be as (yet) another switchable defender whose size is tough to handle for a lot of wings. Brown played some power forward at Wake Forest, which won't be necessary given John and Livers are around, but speaks to his versatility. Meanwhile, he's been the guy Howard has matched up against Wagner in practice. With less offensive responsibility, Brown will be able to expend a lot of energy shutting down the opponent's top perimeter option.

I could also see Brown being more of a shooter than his numbers at WF indicate. His catch-and-shoot splits from last year are wild; Synergy categorized 52 of his 69 halfcourt catch-and-shoot attempts as "guarded," a way higher number than normal and likely a function of an offense with crummy spacing and few late-clock options. He really struggled on those contested shots, hitting 12 of those 52 attempts. When he had space, however, he sunk 10 of 17 shots, an elite number (on a small sample, of course). He's got that excellent free throw stroke, which is usually indicative of a player with long-range potential.

Whether Brown is in the starting lineup or utilized as the team's top wing reserve seems almost inconsequential. With his defensive acumen and ability to slot in at three different positions, he's going to see 30-ish minutes a game. Even when he's not stuffing the box score, his impact is going to be felt.

#5 Terrance Williams

Year: Freshman
Height/Weight: 6'7/240
Recruiting Profile: Four-star, #14 PF, #93 overall, Hello post

Now this is a luxury: a top-100 recruit with a college-ready game and frame that Michigan isn't projected to need for more than mop-up duty. Williams appears to be in a position to play; notably, he started ahead of junior Adrien Nunez in Friday's scrimmage. While he went 1-for-5 from the field in said scrimmage, he grabbed ten boards and dished out three assists in 25 minutes, living up to his reputation as a program guy who's going to find whatever way he can to contribute.

Down the road, expect Williams to be another living mismatch as a 6'7, 240-pounder who rebounds like a big and shoots like a wing. Like Brown, he's not going to demand the ball, he's going to find ways to get it. Adjusting as an undersized scorer around the hoop against Big Ten competition may take a bit, but if he's called upon to play important minutes, I suspect he'll be a decent glue guy who knows to defer to his teammates. I'm excited for his future prospects when the depth chart opens up.

#0 Adrien Nunez

Year: Junior
Height/Weight: 6'6/210
Key Counting Stats: 7.5 MPG, 2.0 PPG, 56%/26%/50%
Key Advanced Stats: 16.4% usage, 21.1% shots, 4.1 fouls committed/40

Williams starting over Nunez in the tune-up scrimmage is a bad sign for the latter, whose best hope of contributing this year was to shoot well enough to hold off the freshmen. Instead, it appears Nunez isn't one of the top ten. There's not a lot to say here that isn't well-worn territory: Nunez has a great-looking outside shot that hasn't fallen for him in college and his defense is a major problem area. If the former doesn't come around, the latter makes him unplayable on this roster.

#25 Jace Howard

Year: Freshman
Height/Weight: 6'7/210
Recruiting Profile: Three-star, #69 SF, #378 overall, Hello post

Another luxury: taking a three-star with an NBA dad as a preferred walk-on who's worthy of a scholarship spot if, as it did in this case, one becomes available. Yes, in this case he's the son of the head coach, but Jace Howard would've been an immediate scholarship take for a good number of D-I schools—he'd easily fit into the back half of this year's recruiting class for about half the programs in the B1G.

He was the only reserve to earn a mention in Dylan's writeup on the scrimmage, which noted that knocked down a couple threes, pulled down two rebounds, and blocked two shots. While he's likely to be overshadowed on this team, he's got the potential to grow into a rotation player down the line.

Comments

Michigan4Life

November 23rd, 2020 at 4:42 PM ^

I believe than Franz and Livers will do their thing. If Chaundee can be the X-Factor and it appears that he's ready to be one especially if he can provide spacing with improved 3 pt shooting (% wise), it raise the team's ceiling/floor. Brown is a chess piece who can fit in with any lineup and that's valuable for Juwan. I like his attitude on wanting to be contribute to the winning program and if he can improve his 3 pt shooting, his draft stock will improve significantly even if he might not get drafted but merely one of the first priority in UDFA signings by the NBA team.

njvictor

November 23rd, 2020 at 4:51 PM ^

Ace, this write up may potentially be underrating Livers this year if he is fully healthy and returns to what he was at the start of last season or better. He was shooting 29/58 (50%) on 3s against the likes Creighton, Iowa St, UNC, Gonzaga, Louisville, Iowa, Illinois, and Oregon (plus some cupcakes) before he got injured. Obviously that's not a huge sample size, but if he can shoot anywhere close to that then that's going be huge for this team

AC1997

November 23rd, 2020 at 5:16 PM ^

The scrimmage nugget that Ace didn't mention here is that Brown went 4-for-7 from three.  That is a good start to confirm that he is capable of being a plus shooter, that Juwan wants him shooting out there, and that Wake was a trash heap on offense that ended possessions with contested long twos.....the worst shot in the sport.

AZBlue

November 23rd, 2020 at 6:25 PM ^

Jace Howard --- Ace --  Is that confirmed that his scholarship is a 1-year deal like any other walk-on?

I don't think it will matter in 2021 but space could get tight in 2022 and having that extra little bit of flexibility would be nice. 

Michigan4Life

November 23rd, 2020 at 9:22 PM ^

He signed NIL and once he gets a scholarship, it's 4 years. He was originally to be the walk-on but once the spot opened up via Todd and Christopher, the scholarship became his and it's binding for 4 years.

If he hadn't signed a NIL, he would be effectively considered to be a walk-on which in Jace's case, he's not.

A2Photonut

November 23rd, 2020 at 7:40 PM ^

I like Franz as much as the next Michigan fan, but saying he "tossed" Ron Harper Jr. to the floor on that play is ridiculous. He blocked the shot and then Harper lost his balance and fell, I did not see any "tossing".

LabattsBleu

November 24th, 2020 at 11:47 PM ^

Really excited to see how much of a jump Franz has made. He definitely looks bigger; Franz and Martelli say he's 6'10"... who knows.

Brown and Williams are two newcomers that will be great to see in action as well.

Excited for Livers as well; hopefully he can avoid the run of injuries that plagued him last year.

Bring on the Hoops!