Recruiting Streak Ending?
In light of this recruiting race to the finish, I thought I'd review the history of recruiting. I'd already known Michigan has been a dominant recruiter but I wanted to clarify my opinion.
Below is a table showing Scout's recruiting rankings for the Big Ten since 2002 (all the data they had):
Things to consider:
- Michigan hasn't ever had a class ranked lower than 19th Nationally.
- Michigan has never had class ranked lower than 3rd in the Big Ten.
- Only Ohio St. and Penn State have ever had classes that ranked higher than Michigan in the Big Ten.
- Michigan classes ranked on average in the top 10 for the period.
- Over the nine classes before this one, Michigan had 4 top classes, 3 second ranked classes, and 2 third ranked classes in the Big Ten.
While I realize this data is limited, I think it's safe to say that it is reflective of our history. I'm sure we all agree that recruiting rankings aren't perfect, however they do correlate to success. Let's hope Hokes race to the finish allows us to try to keep our top three streak alive and our streak of beating State for recruits.
BTW- I reviewed Rivals rankings as well and the results are nearly identical. Their data wouldn't copy and paste well so I stuck with Scout.
Also - Indiana is pathetic.
Edit - I replaced the table with an image of the table for size. I hope you can still read it.
January 21st, 2011 at 1:36 PM ^
Yes, it’s true that Michigan is highly unlikely to have a top-20 class this year, and is highly unlikely to continue its streak of finishing among the top 3 in the Big Ten.
There are a few points that make the situation a bit better. It’s not just who you sign, but who you retain. Michigan’s class last year (12th nationally; 2nd B10) included two four-star kids (Demar Dorsey, Austin White) and a three-star (Antonio Kinard) who either weren’t admitted, or who didn’t stay. The two best kids in the 2009 class (14th nationally; 3rd B10) were Justin Turner, who never played a down; and Will Campbell, who hasn’t played anywhere near the five stars he was credited with.
Despite recruiting classes that were always 20th nationally or better, Michigan has finished the season unranked for three consecutive years. That is because Michigan under-performed in relation to its talent. This is particularly true on defense. Michigan had roughly the 110th-ranked defense in 2010, despite having nowhere near 110th-ranked talent. Even allowing for injuries and youth, Michigan's defense and special teams should not have been anywhere near as bad as they were. Coaching was the difference between Michigan's performance, and what would have been expected given the talent on the team.
Given the 85-scholarship limit and attrition, most schools sign close to 25 kids per year. Even had Rodriguez stayed, Michigan was probably going to sign around 19 or 20, because the graduating class was small. If you’re going to have a bad recruiting year, the year when you don’t have as many to give out is probably the right time to have it. I mean, imagine if Michigan had 25 vacancies instead of 20. The problem would even be worse.
Stanford finished 4th in the final AP poll this year, and their classes over the last five years average out to around 32nd, and they never had a class in the top 10. If Stanford can play that well without ever notching a top-10 class, Michigan can survive one bad year.
January 21st, 2011 at 4:48 PM ^
...15 yards for piling on.
The team didn't underachieve; it was playing boys against men on defense. I don't have the charts, but the teams they lost to had almost all upperclassmen at all positions. If anything, the team overachieved. It managed to beat everyone to whom it was close in talent, and its BT lossses were to three teams that won eleven regular season games and two that won seven, for a total of 47 and an average of 9.4 regular season wins.
I really don't know how you expected a defense with 8 freshmen and RS freshmen in the rotation to beat teams with upperclassmen that were all ranked at one point. I have a feeling that if the defense does better this year from age alone, you will be one of those who is still pissing on RR.
Lastly, except for me, almost everyone predicted Michigan to win six or seven games last year. They won seven. How can that possibly be considered "underachieving?"
January 22nd, 2011 at 4:46 PM ^
And I have a feeling that if the defense does get significantly better, you'll be one of the people here claiming that better defensive coaching had nothing to do with it and that it was all a result of an extra year in the system.
It's no secret that Obi Ezeh couldn't figure out where to line up for 3 years. Even with Demens, we consistently saw him lining up too close to the DT and getting swallowed by an OL. We saw the defense constantly taking bad angles, missing lots of tackles partially due to poor technique, and not communicating coverages properly. I would argue that most of that has to do with poor coaching than youth. Over RR's tenure, we've unquestionably struggled to develop our defensive players (please don't bring up Mike Martin as a counterexample).
January 21st, 2011 at 2:15 PM ^
Wow, I only just realized we only have 2 offensive recruits currently. RB Hayes and OL Posada (who is a soft verbal?). I find this unbelievable but obviously necessary.
January 21st, 2011 at 5:20 PM ^
We still have Jack Miller.
January 21st, 2011 at 3:06 PM ^
LoL he said EVER.
January 21st, 2011 at 3:19 PM ^
Bad recruiting class??
FIRE BRADY HOKE.
[/sarcasm]
January 21st, 2011 at 3:38 PM ^
yah, techinically we were below 19 last year because Dorsey wasn't a part of the class, but was part of that ranking. Not that I blame RR for taking him. he was the last guy we got pretty much, it was either him or antoher Vinopal type most likely, take the risk every time.
RR's classes had some ups and downs and some busts, but that is to be expected. Overall I thought he did a great job recruting. I think there was some worry about him coming off the 3 and 5 win seasons, but it seems like he gained a lot of faith in the recruiting world for a short while here. His offense showed how exciting it can be and players knew they could step in and play on that D.
Being so thin when he got here(not only the transfers and defections, but it was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Lloyd anyways with the Hart/Henne/Long class leaving), we needed every recruit to work out right away to have success and that didn't happen, which is almsot always the case. DTs like Campbell(see FAirly,Nick) take longer to develop quite often and DB is the last position you want to have loaded up with youngsters. He had a decent foundation for the defense in his frist class, but went all out ot build the offense in the next class, meaning the 2010 class had to play a ton right away. If we had just had a little more luck, RR would probably still be here. Get Pryor and get Dorse in school and you have a great start, as the offense could have started building 2 years earlier. If WArren stays and WOolfolk stays healthy, orur secondary goes from weakness to strength almost right away. Throw in Dorsey at FS over Vinopal/Gordon and you really have something. If Cissoko(not a likely candidate to get in trouble when recruited) was still on the team too, we'd really have a secondary, even without Dorsey,Turner and Emillen. It's too bad Graham didn't have one more year of eligibility, lol.
January 21st, 2011 at 3:46 PM ^
For this class, I think we can close out strong. I think we will see a couple guys like leach and one of Watson/Heininger not given 5th years and that will open a spot or 2. Tate's spot is permanently open now too. I'm surprised nobody has transferred yet, thought a couple guys like Drew Dileo/Terrance Robinson might think about it. Anyways, for this class, if we keep Fisher somehow, we have 6 spots left, possibly up to 8 if the 5th years leave. I think we can get tihs list
CB Mcclure,Taylor
LB Frank Clark at the worst, if we can't pull Frost, Willingham or someone like that
DL - Probably one guy here, not sure who.Hoping for Heyward or Zettel
OL - Bryant
WR - Flowers
1-3 out of this group, QB,K,TE. K could be a walk on. Not sure if K is needed, as we have 2 stud youngsters on scholly. They did suck last yaer, but I think we can coach them up. We need a TE, Kennedy could be 3rd QB for one year if needed I think, get 2 next year probably.
January 21st, 2011 at 3:53 PM ^
Manage expecations. I apologise for being so pragmatic as I enjoy the optimism and excitement with our program when Coach Hoke and Mattison cam on board, but no one can save this class. It will be one of our worst historically from a numbers perspective according to the major recruiting sites. The task for the next 2 weeks for the new staff is overly daunting. They were hired too late into the process and RR was under the fire too much to solidify a better class while he was here, so there is limited traction. Also, recruits are struggling with the identity of this team both on O and D. Still players will come because its Michigan but it wont be anyone that will move the needle statistically. I do look forward to the coaches working with this class and proving the rankings wrong when we look at this class retrospectively, but for now, on a pure numbers basis from the recruiting sites, it does not look good for us.
January 21st, 2011 at 4:22 PM ^
have less than 2 weeks to pull this off.GO BLUE!!!
January 21st, 2011 at 5:09 PM ^
We'll survive. Hoke is a good recruiter - he was Carr's designated West Coast guy. You don't put a weak recruiter in a region over 2,000 miles away. His hands are tied this year because of his late hire, but our 2012 class will be very good.
January 22nd, 2011 at 12:47 AM ^
we'll be fine. it takes it to make it. we have a plethora of resources, facilities, academics, tradition, and the largest living alumni. all of these will be leveraged.
January 22nd, 2011 at 4:57 PM ^
Updated Rivals rank us at 34 after todays commits, that's one spot above State who's at 35th with 19 recruits to our 13. Penn state sits just above us at 33rd. Our average star rating is 3.31 and that slots us around 18th. Not bad at all. If we can sign 2-3 of our top targets that will easily get us in the top 20 and keep the 19th and under streak alive.
January 22nd, 2011 at 4:59 PM ^
but hey it could be worse, Scarlet or Green.
January 23rd, 2011 at 10:39 AM ^
After the three pick-ups this weekend, consider that M is basically tied for third in the big ten standings according to Rivals.
3. PSU - 843 (15 verbals)
4. MSU - 834 (19 verbals)
5. M - 824 (14 verbals)
Michigan picks up one for 4* and they will jump about both of these teams.
January 23rd, 2011 at 10:40 AM ^
Sorry for the double post and you had written it better than I anyway.
January 23rd, 2011 at 12:32 PM ^
Chris Bryant should be able to take care of that.
January 23rd, 2011 at 1:16 PM ^
Why would a coach that has a little more than 3 weeks to recruit not have the worst class in Michigan history. That scenerio has never happened before.
January 24th, 2011 at 6:57 AM ^
It ain't over till the fat lady sings.