UMBIG 11 Spring Football Update
Over on TTB UMBIG11 created a post about spring football updates. So, I figured I would let you all know to head on over and get your spring football update!\
Here's the url:
http://touch-the-banner.com/michigan-football-spring-update/
I harken back to the arguments on other boards where a few of us tried to convinced many fans we had lots of NFL talent but lacked the strong coaches necessary to mold all of it into an impressive, winning team. People let the 7-6 and 5-7 records color too much of their opinion of individual players.
Just look at the DL we will have this season:
Rashan Gary, Bryan Mone, Maurice Hurst, and Chase Winovich. All 4 are future NFL players. (I'm very happy Hurst returned.)
In the 2nd line, we will have some combination of Ron Johnson, Carlo Kemp, Donovan Jeter, Michael Dwumfour (currently limited by a lingering injury), Aubrey Solomon, James Hudson, Luiji Vilain, Kwity Paye, Corey Malone-Hatcher, Deron Irving-Bey, Reuben Jones, etc. (I'm probably forgetting someone. Lawrence Marshall?)
There's an abundance of athletic, talented players to choose from and mold a 8-10 man DL rotation. The question in the near future is simple: how much of the 2nd and 3rd team is ready to contribute positiviely, meaningfully, and consistently against Power 5 competiton? I'm encouraged by what I saw against Rutgers (lol) and Maryland. It helps that a few of those players had 1 year to learn Brown's system. Also, others have enrolled early this spring to accelerate the adjusting process.
Furthermore, there's a reason Harbaugh took a 28 man class in 2016 and reinforced it with a 30 man class in 2017. These 2 classes will be the foundation going forward now that Hoke's players have reduced in number (via the draft and/or graduation).
A strong DL can mask a lot of issues in the back end. I don't know that we'll have a #1 caliber defense again but I see us in the top 5-7 because of Don Brown who has never had access to so much athletic talent.
Why not? Is this years defense going to play last years offense from every opponent?
If this were a pro team that lost 10 of 11 starters, then I'd agree with you. But not necessarily college... I don't think it will be as deadly to offenses early in the year as last years defense was early. But by the end of the year, I think it will be just as good.
Tall order for Michigan to replace the entire secondary plus Clark and not miss a beat. There will be growing pain to begin the season. If the rumor of Malik Zaire transferring to Florida is true, Michigan defense is in for a tough test right off the bat.
Don Brown.
Here is my sober take... without seeing a lot of these players on the field in a real game a lot of people are going off starz so have NO idea if someone is great, good, average, mediocre. The same people calling for stardom for any random 4* are the people who said Kugler was going to be a star cuz his daddy was an OL, and Kalis was the "most college ready guard" in all of HS football etc.
To your question I think linebackers can be better. Bush is back with a year under his belt, and McCray is in his 2nd year. We lost Gedeon, we can replace him. You lose Peppers - who everyone hyped - and now you hope Hudson can be 80% Peppers. Guys like Furbush haven't been able to be healthy for more than 3 weeks in their career.
Starting 4 on DL could be a wash - we had a multitude of NFL DL.. Charlton, Wormley, Glasgow, etc etc. That's rare. You could say Mone (if he can stay healthy for a year which he has yet to prove) and Hurst could be as good as last year's DT. The problem is those DTs were spelled by... well Hurst and Mone. I expect our starting DTs to play MORE this year than last year's and thus drop off a bit as the game wears on and they wear down. Even if talent is the same. Is Gary and Winovich a match for last year's DE - maybe... Gary needs to take a big step and most expect it to happen. The issue with DL is when the reserves go in. I don't care how talented, it's just difficult to make massive impact as 1st and 2nd year players. It seems the next 2 up are Carlo Kemp and Jeter - young guys. If it were guys like Marshall and Shelton Johnson getting rave reviews you could make a case the backups could match last year backups. I don't see our backups being the next Rashan Gary of 2016. So starters maybe a wash, backups a dropoff.
Now to the secondary where you get all the hype. Maybe Long, Thomas, Hill et all are the next Lewis. No one knows - no one has seen them. Ty Kinnel should match one of our safeties and you hope Metellus can be the like the other S. If either of those get hurt I worry.
So realistically - forgetting raw talent but saying talent + experience (i.e.a slightly worse player with 3 years experience is going to play better and make less mistakes than a talented 2nd year player) I'd say
- Starting DL - potential wash when fresh but apt to get worn down more than last year's crew
- Backup DL - lower... I mean last years backups were guys like Hurst and Gary
- LB - if Hudson can be 80% Peppers I see upside here with experience in Bush, McCray. You don't need a ton of depth here as starters play a ton.
- DBs - sorry worse this year, a year from now with experience under their belt, maybe a wash with what was an excellent crew last year. Then in 2019 could be upside.
\TakeittoDiaryBitch
Here you go with "voice of reason" stuff and of course you're totally right.
I think you're dead on about DL depth--either they rotate the same amount they did last year and there are serious drive consistency issues with the backups, or they play the starters more and the guys wear down. The ability to rotate so much was a direct asset to the DL the past two years, and in circumstances where depth took a hit (such as Ryan Glasgow tearing his pectoral muscle) the DL took an immediate step back.
I don't understand people who genuinely think our back four will be as good as last year. Last season Michigan fielded one of the best cornerback combos in the history of the program, with experienced and athletic safeties that almost always made the right play. It will be a miracle if the competence level is even close. Whatever is gained from another year of Brown's system and some serious athletes will not make up for what is lost in waving goodbye to guys like Lewis and (if you consider him to be a DB) Peppers, guys who were generational talents.
Doesn't mean they'll be embarrassing, but there will be growing pains.
We're better off at linebacker.
It's possible.
For instance, Ohio State lost a lot of talent from its hyper-talented 2015 team to the NFL but the 2016 defense was actually better than the 2015 defense (according to advanced metrics).
Football Outsiders:
2015 OSU - 16.7; 9th in the nation
2016 OSU - 13.6; 5th in the nation
2015 Ohio State's defense lost DE Joey Bosa, DT Adolphus Washington, OLB Darron Lee, OLB Joshua Perry, CB Eli Apple, S Vonn Bell, S Tyvis Powell (undrafted),
2016 Ohio State's defense had talents like S Malik Hooker, CB Gareon Conley, and CB Marshon Lattimore ready to play. (I marvel at OSU's loaded secondary.)
Fortunately, Michigan's roster is filled with athletic, talented players that fit Don Brown's scheme. Credit to Harbaugh for his intense recruiting.
Players like David Long Jr, Lavert Hill, Khaleke Hudson, Josh Metellus, and Devin Bush are ready to ball. It's their time to shine.
Or were the reserves in?
What kind of device are/were you using?
Interesting. I've had one other person report that same type of thing from an iPhone. I'm wondering if it has to do with an ad service I'm using, which I started using fairly recently.
The info yesterday that Malzone was a definite transfer was news to me but not really surprising; the news that he will apparently graduate early also surprising, but encouraging. If he pulls that off he can transfer instantly and get two more years of eligibility somewhere where he can contribute, to which I say, good for him. I hope he is able to remember his time here fondly.
I think expecting zero dropoff from the defense is a bit optimistic. Not that we don't have talent replacing the experienced guys, but the experienced guys were both experienced and REALLY GOOD.
OTOH, while depth is more of a concern this year, the front four is going to give opposing offenses nightmares.
It's a glitch.
Weren't you for a couple months in bolivia last year? lol.
Yes, and it is directly related to my current total. I've informed the powers that be, I suspect it will probably get fixed when the new site rolls out.
Yeah, that is supposed to happen about the time that AL and OSU stop negative recruiting tactics against us.
That has been the story for almost 6 months now!
Let me go on record as "I'm not buying it." Computers seem to get fixed pretty slowly for site owned by a guy with a UM computer engineering degree, and a software developer, but c'mon man.
It should be pretty easy to fix a point total on a computer (like 10 minutes), not a 6-month job.
What is the real story?
Lol
It's spring.
Every team is undefeated and is the best team in program history.
Even MSU is 9-3.
should we be worried about the offense?
Eh, defense always progresses more quickly than offense. I'd say that's not something you could determine from spring practices.
to be fair, they ARE going against OUR O-line...
/sigh
I am preparing for a spring game full of "the defense is way ahead of the offense" comments...
DBs stuck on receivers like glue
Be still my heart.
Thank You, Magnus, UMBIG 11 and ReadYourGuard! Great work!
Is anyone else having trouble with the ads blocking the content on TTB? I can't find an x to close it out.
I adjusted my view/zoom down to about 90% and it solved the ads blocking content problem for me.
I haven't had any issues with that on any browsers or my iPhone/iPad. What kind of device are you using?
google chrome on windows 7 for me
Weird... Thanks. I use Google Chrome with Windows 10, and I haven't had any issues with ads covering the content at all. Obviously, that's not Windows 7, but I was expecting you to have been using some sort of mobile device.