evenyoubrutus

April 5th, 2017 at 7:15 PM ^

There is more natural talent but they are younger. What's crazy is that for how historically good the defensive line was last year, it could be better this year, at least the starting 4. That can be enough to take over a game by itself. Look at what the line did to OSU last year, and what Clemson's line did as well. The back 4 may be prone to mistakes but it hopefully will not be game changing.

lhglrkwg

April 5th, 2017 at 8:10 PM ^

We just lost a 4* CB, two 4* safeties, a 5* NB, a 4* LB, and two 4* DL if I'm countimg everything right. Maybe the youngesters are talented, but we can't kid ourselves into believing we didn't just witness an all-time culmination of talent and experience on that side of the ball last year. We will absolutely see a step back.

Frank Chuck

April 6th, 2017 at 12:02 AM ^

I harken back to the arguments on other boards where a few of us tried to convinced many fans we had lots of NFL talent but lacked the strong coaches necessary to mold all of it into an impressive, winning team. People let the 7-6 and 5-7 records color too much of their opinion of individual players.

Just look at the DL we will have this season:

Rashan Gary, Bryan Mone, Maurice Hurst, and Chase Winovich. All 4 are future NFL players. (I'm very happy Hurst returned.)

In the 2nd line, we will have some combination of Ron Johnson, Carlo Kemp, Donovan Jeter, Michael Dwumfour (currently limited by a lingering injury), Aubrey Solomon, James Hudson, Luiji Vilain, Kwity Paye, Corey Malone-Hatcher, Deron Irving-Bey, Reuben Jones, etc. (I'm probably forgetting someone. Lawrence Marshall?)

There's an abundance of athletic, talented players to choose from and mold a 8-10 man DL rotation. The question in the near future is simple: how much of the 2nd and 3rd team is ready to contribute positiviely, meaningfully, and consistently against Power 5 competiton? I'm encouraged by what I saw against Rutgers (lol) and Maryland. It helps that a few of those players had 1 year to learn Brown's system. Also, others have enrolled early this spring to accelerate the adjusting process.

Furthermore, there's a reason Harbaugh took a 28 man class in 2016 and reinforced it with a 30 man class in 2017. These 2 classes will be the foundation going forward now that Hoke's players have reduced in number (via the draft and/or graduation).

A strong DL can mask a lot of issues in the back end. I don't know that we'll have a #1 caliber defense again but I see us in the top 5-7 because of Don Brown who has never had access to so much athletic talent.

1VaBlue1

April 6th, 2017 at 8:40 AM ^

Why not?  Is this years defense going to play last years offense from every opponent?

If this were a pro team that lost 10 of 11 starters, then I'd agree with you.  But not necessarily college...  I don't think it will be as deadly to offenses early in the year as last years defense was early.  But by the end of the year, I think it will be just as good.

alum96

April 5th, 2017 at 7:38 PM ^

Here is my sober take... without seeing a lot of these players on the field in a real game a lot of people are going off starz so have NO idea if someone is great, good, average, mediocre.  The same people calling for stardom for any random 4* are the people who said Kugler was going to be a star cuz his daddy was an OL, and Kalis was the "most college ready guard" in all of HS football etc.

To your question I think linebackers can be better.  Bush is back with a year under his belt, and McCray is in his 2nd year.  We lost Gedeon, we can replace him.  You lose Peppers - who everyone hyped - and now you hope Hudson can be 80% Peppers.  Guys like Furbush haven't been able to be healthy for more than 3 weeks in their career.

Starting 4 on DL could be a wash - we had a multitude of NFL DL.. Charlton, Wormley, Glasgow, etc etc.  That's rare.  You could say Mone (if he can stay healthy for a year which he has yet to prove) and Hurst could be as good as last year's DT.  The problem is those DTs were spelled by... well Hurst and Mone.  I expect our starting DTs to play MORE this year than last year's and thus drop off a bit as the game wears on and they wear down.  Even if talent is the same.  Is Gary and Winovich a match for last year's DE - maybe... Gary needs to take a big step and most expect it to happen.  The issue with DL is when the reserves go in.  I don't care how talented, it's just difficult to make massive impact as 1st and 2nd year players.  It seems the next 2 up are Carlo Kemp and Jeter - young guys.  If it were guys like Marshall and Shelton Johnson getting rave reviews you could make a case the backups could match last year backups.  I don't see our backups being the next Rashan Gary of 2016.   So starters maybe a wash, backups a dropoff.

Now to the secondary where you get all the hype.  Maybe Long, Thomas, Hill et all are the next Lewis.  No one knows - no one has seen them.  Ty Kinnel should match one of our safeties and you hope Metellus can be the like the other S.  If either of those get hurt I worry.

So realistically - forgetting raw talent but saying talent + experience (i.e.a  slightly worse player with 3 years experience is going to play better and make less mistakes than a talented 2nd year player) I'd say

  • Starting DL - potential wash when fresh but apt to get worn down more than last year's crew
  • Backup DL - lower... I mean last years backups were guys like Hurst and Gary
  • LB - if Hudson can be 80% Peppers I see upside here with experience in Bush, McCray.  You don't need a ton of depth here as starters play a ton.
  • DBs - sorry worse this year, a year from now with experience under their belt, maybe a wash with what was an excellent crew last year.  Then in 2019 could be upside.

\TakeittoDiaryBitch

YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

April 5th, 2017 at 9:05 PM ^

Long will be better than Stribling. Kinnel is equal vs Thomas. Metellus is equal to minus vs D Hill. Hill is a big minus to Lewis. Watson is equal to Watson. A Thomas is plus to frosh L Hill and injured D Long. St Juste is a plus vs nothing just based on matchup/range potential. The secondary was very, very good last year other than a couple of poor fills of alleys and the lack of interceptions. A huge factor was Lewis' tight coverage at all times - and the reliance of the safeties & Brown on his consistency, After observing Long up close in HS and comments from a current player, I really believe his potential is 1st round pick - the question is whether he can develop the technique & consistency this year to be a star. Kinnel has grade A potential - recognition, coverage and tackling skills. Can Metellus develop the pattern recognition to cover consistently? Can L Hill develop the technique (and size) to matchup with larger WRs? Those two issues can lead to big busts or confidence in the opposing QB on key downs. I think the LB situation to replace Gedeon and Peppers is far more concerning.

stephenrjking

April 5th, 2017 at 10:27 PM ^

Here you go with "voice of reason" stuff and of course you're totally right.

I think you're dead on about DL depth--either they rotate the same amount they did last year and there are serious drive consistency issues with the backups, or they play the starters more and the guys wear down. The ability to rotate so much was a direct asset to the DL the past two years, and in circumstances where depth took a hit (such as Ryan Glasgow tearing his pectoral muscle) the DL took an immediate step back. 

I don't understand people who genuinely think our back four will be as good as last year. Last season Michigan fielded one of the best cornerback combos in the history of the program, with experienced and athletic safeties that almost always made the right play. It will be a miracle if the competence level is even close. Whatever is gained from another year of Brown's system and some serious athletes will not make up for what is lost in waving goodbye to guys like Lewis and (if you consider him to be a DB) Peppers, guys who were generational talents. 

Doesn't mean they'll be embarrassing, but there will be growing pains.

 

Frank Chuck

April 5th, 2017 at 10:33 PM ^

It's possible.

For instance, Ohio State lost a lot of talent from its hyper-talented 2015 team to the NFL but the 2016 defense was actually better than the 2015 defense (according to advanced metrics).

Football Outsiders:

2015 OSU - 16.7; 9th in the nation

2016 OSU - 13.6; 5th in the nation

2015 Ohio State's defense lost DE Joey Bosa, DT Adolphus Washington, OLB Darron Lee, OLB Joshua Perry, CB Eli Apple, S Vonn Bell, S Tyvis Powell (undrafted),

2016 Ohio State's defense had talents like S Malik Hooker, CB Gareon Conley, and CB Marshon Lattimore ready to play. (I marvel at OSU's loaded secondary.)

Fortunately, Michigan's roster is filled with athletic, talented players that fit Don Brown's scheme. Credit to Harbaugh for his intense recruiting.

Players like David Long Jr, Lavert Hill, Khaleke Hudson, Josh Metellus, and Devin Bush are ready to ball. It's their time to shine.

corundum

April 5th, 2017 at 8:57 PM ^

Hell yeah. I would like nothing more than for Isaac to push his way into splitting the starting carries with Evans. The backfield is going to be deep, athletic, versatile, and experienced. Perfect combination to mitigate a freshly gelled offensive line.

stephenrjking

April 5th, 2017 at 6:24 PM ^

The info yesterday that Malzone was a definite transfer was news to me but not really surprising; the news that he will apparently graduate early also surprising, but encouraging. If he pulls that off he can transfer instantly and get two more years of eligibility somewhere where he can contribute, to which I say, good for him. I hope he is able to remember his time here fondly.

I think expecting zero dropoff from the defense is a bit optimistic. Not that we don't have talent replacing the experienced guys, but the experienced guys were both experienced and REALLY GOOD. 

OTOH, while depth is more of a concern this year, the front four is going to give opposing offenses nightmares.

Year of Revenge II

April 6th, 2017 at 6:04 AM ^

That has been the story for almost 6 months now!

Let me go on record as "I'm not buying it." Computers seem to get fixed pretty slowly for site owned by a guy with a UM computer engineering degree, and a software developer, but c'mon man.

It should be pretty easy to fix a point total on a computer (like 10 minutes), not a 6-month job.

What is the real story?

Lol

 

readyourguard

April 5th, 2017 at 6:48 PM ^

This is the right perspective, but I will say, the defense looks fast and aggressive. The offense was stifled a fair amount during some early drills yesterday. DBs stuck on receivers like glue, (although DPJ wasn't out there), and pressure coming from everywhere. It was pleasantly surprising.

readyourguard

April 5th, 2017 at 7:33 PM ^

I think there will be some components that are better: Speight, Evans, Hill. Those guys are good, especially Hill. He is so talented with great hands and agility. Others we'll have to see. I really like Onwenu. He's got a solid punch. A 2nd year Bredeson will be better than 1st year Ben. Cole will be fine wherever he plays. That just leaves 2 linemen to wonder about, and I think Kugler is going to be fine. The Receivers are talented and have good hands. Let's see how the young guys do when a DB jams the shit out of them or they have to catch a pass across the middle.