Crystal Ball Tips
Hey guys. Hope all is well here, and hope you've enjoyed the radio/podcast stuff. (darts talk). It's been a lot of fun.
I lurk the board relatively frequently still, and noticed some threads being started based on a couple Crystal Ball picks or even one pick in certain instances, so I figured I'd post some pointers for those that do follow it, or want more clarity on it.
First things first: it's not a perfect tool. It's a great one, and almost always gives an accurate glimpse into a recruitment, but like most things involving recruiting, has its flaws (late flips, uninformed analysts making predictions like the Chris Evans one, etc.). For those of us that take it seriously (most users), it's a tangible way to put our names behind where we think someone will go. A couple quick things I'd consider regarding it:
1. Our national guys (Steve Wiltfong, Barton Simmons, etc.) won't usually put an initial pick in unless the information is strong in one direction. Steve's prediction on David Long today is a good example. When we expanded the ability to choose to outside sites, it opened up the door for people to make completely speculative picks based on nothing (the Chris Evans pick/thread is a perfect example). Usually the given team writer's pick + national analysts almost always = probably what's going to happen. There have been a few instances (Damon Webb) where that didn't happen, but for the most part it's solid.
2. We're measured on a couple different thresholds regarding the CB...which are basically the percentage of accurate picks, and the average length (days) our average prediction is worth. So while flipping a pick late to get the pick right does help the accuracy average, it hurts the average prediction length, so we're pushed to get it right as far ahead of the commitment as we can.
Figured this may give people a better idea on how to view the Crystal Ball going forward and heading into Signing Day. Again, hope all is well here.
January 6th, 2016 at 9:16 PM ^
January 6th, 2016 at 9:26 PM ^
January 6th, 2016 at 9:34 PM ^
That would make sense if the most important output was to measure the predictors.
It's not.
The most important output is to measure where a recruit is going. In that sense, you want only the "latest and greatest" point of view, which incorporates all available information, and stays up to date with the inevitable twists and turns.
For instance...does it really tell you anything that someone put in a crystal ball for a pro style QB that committed to a coach that was fired and replaced with a running spread guy? Obviously not.
January 6th, 2016 at 10:36 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 12:06 AM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 1:50 AM ^
That's why it's best to ignore CB's until after the regular season. During the regular season, they're like Bracketology matrix's in January. Who cares?
You don't really need CB picks until after the regular season anyway. It's the guys that are still uncommitted after the regular season that you need insider perspective on. They are crunching through a decision, and information on which way they are leaning is hard to come by w/out the recon by folks suh as the CB writers.
January 7th, 2016 at 7:10 AM ^
So let's implement a system where we should ignore the crystal balls throughout the season because we know they are full of shit. This instead of fixing them so that they actually mean something. I don't think crystal balls should be a meh guess. They should be a solid assessment of where a player is going. Anyone who disagrees is stupid and should be rendered sterile for the sake of future generations.
January 6th, 2016 at 9:43 PM ^
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but once a player has committed to a school, no one can crystal ball to that school anymore, right?
So, for example, while Quinn Nordin is committed to Penn St. people can only add new picks for a different school (eg Michigan) but not for him to stay with PSU..
Same with Evans. No one can put in anymore picks for Michigan, but can throw in a guess that he might flip to another school.
January 6th, 2016 at 11:59 PM ^
January 6th, 2016 at 9:18 PM ^
January 6th, 2016 at 9:20 PM ^
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January 6th, 2016 at 9:26 PM ^
January 6th, 2016 at 10:19 PM ^
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January 6th, 2016 at 10:42 PM ^
True, but will it listen?
January 6th, 2016 at 10:47 PM ^
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January 6th, 2016 at 11:31 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 12:15 AM ^
Completely unecessary man. Have some respect.
January 7th, 2016 at 1:19 AM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 7:52 AM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 8:01 AM ^
Are bears Catholic?
January 7th, 2016 at 12:09 PM ^
Ever hear of the Ursuline Sisters?
January 17th, 2016 at 7:22 PM ^
That way nobody but animal lovers will be insulted.
January 6th, 2016 at 11:31 PM ^
My mother is a fish.
January 7th, 2016 at 5:22 AM ^
January 6th, 2016 at 9:30 PM ^
Superhero. Shya right. Dude can talk to fish.
Can we all agree that the Benedict Cumberbatch Dr. Strange movie in September is the true superhero event of the year?
/hijack
EDIT: Ninja'ed and bested by the Wichitan. Nice!
January 7th, 2016 at 12:02 AM ^
That gives me something to look forward to. Thanks for the heads up on Dr. Strange. He's a good choice to play that part.
January 6th, 2016 at 9:19 PM ^
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January 6th, 2016 at 9:20 PM ^
January 6th, 2016 at 9:31 PM ^
January 6th, 2016 at 10:17 PM ^
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January 6th, 2016 at 9:47 PM ^
You had a busy day today.
January 6th, 2016 at 10:05 PM ^
IIRC TomVH and Lorenz both started as very well informed posters on the board. Tim at Rivals used to be on staff here right? I'm sure Brian and Ace are both approached reasonably often themselves to go to a bigger site
January 6th, 2016 at 10:16 PM ^
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January 6th, 2016 at 10:37 PM ^
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January 6th, 2016 at 10:38 PM ^
but didn't he just retire to continue with school? He didn't get scooped up by another site, right?
January 6th, 2016 at 10:50 PM ^
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January 6th, 2016 at 10:40 PM ^
There are other sites to go to?
January 7th, 2016 at 1:57 AM ^
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January 6th, 2016 at 9:20 PM ^
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January 6th, 2016 at 9:20 PM ^
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January 6th, 2016 at 9:20 PM ^
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January 6th, 2016 at 9:21 PM ^
good info...fairly obvious but has me even more optomistic about Long and Crawford..hello #1 class if we lock these two. Rashan would be icing on the cake
January 6th, 2016 at 9:22 PM ^
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January 6th, 2016 at 9:26 PM ^
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January 6th, 2016 at 9:34 PM ^
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January 7th, 2016 at 1:54 AM ^
Need over 300 to get the number 1 class.
Next year.
January 6th, 2016 at 9:46 PM ^
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