Neck Sharpies: Three Plays With Brown
This looks familiar
Maybe this is a bit of an overreaction to the last thing that happened, but when Michigan was thrust into a D.C. search after one year of D.J. Durkin, Brian's not the only guy who immediately thought "I really hope we get a guy who can take down the spread!"
So can Brown? Well we haven't had that many opportunities to see. While you'd think the spread would be ubiquitous in college football now, there actually aren't as many teams who are dedicated to it as you'd think. Bill Connelly has a helpful (though far from perfect) list of offenses by how spread they were in 2014. Just three BC's FBS opponents this year were in the top 25 of spread-i-ness last year—Syracuse (2nd), Clemson (11th), and Louisville (23rd). Florida State, which spends most of its 1st down snaps under center, was 26th, just to give you a baseline. And Syracuse transitioned out of the gun-and-read offense this season.
So: Clemson. They're a lot like Ohio State. They line up in the gun with a slot receiver nearly always, hurry up, read-option as the basis of their running game, throw deep to keep safeties away from that, and work in a lot of power blocking. They also have access to way more talent than Boston College. So let's watch a quarter of that together and see how BC played it.
Play 1: Go route vs. Man 1 — The slot receiver comes in motion and that drags the nickel across the formation while the SS walks down. The free safety is lined up 13 yards from the line of scrimmage so he's not going to be able to help much against a run.
Michigan fans should recognize the coverage since it's exactly what we ran all year. Only thing is the free safety was bracketing the receiver at the bottom of the screen so this one has pure man. He has a step but the ball's overthrown.
Play 2: Read option vs Man 1 — Same look again with the backside safety walking down and the free safety playing way high. But this time they're blitzing the WLB. The DE forms up to make it handoff, and everybody has their gaps. The playside DE shoved the RT upfield so there's nowhere to go, but the backside DE whiffs when closing in. It looks dangerous for a second and then the free safety has arrived.
Play 3: Go route vs Man 1—We get a glimpse of why this was such a good pass defense. They come out in the Okie:
(free safety is way deep)
With the RB staying in the MLB came on a delayed blitz. Slot got separation downfield but the ball went over his head. FS is trailing way behind like he was bracketing the other side again.
Things: So far this is a lot like Michigan's defense. Clemson had two chances for an 80-yard TD against man coverage that they missed, and one running play that went for a loss because the SDE made a great play.
I think the free safety is helping out with a particularly dangerous receiver and Clemson is using that to target the other side. A safety who can range sideline to sideline is a luxury beyond the means of B.C. and they were living dangerously because of it.
But like Michigan their down linemen are good with their hands and can handle soloing gaps. I would be interested to see the Okie come back—some of the fun 2011 defense things we had to do to glue that thing back together are worth trotting out still even if the main thing is sound.
Then again it's been three plays and other than the little variations this is the same defense Michigan had all year.
I'll get into another drive or two tomorrow.
December 22nd, 2015 at 4:48 PM ^
Two wide open downfield players and missed throws....is this really a sign of a good defense or a lucky defense?
December 22nd, 2015 at 4:58 PM ^
We must have different definitions of "wide open."
The point is the defense is forcing the offense in to low percentage throws. BC's corners were two sophomores and a freshman. Not exactly Jourdan Lewis back there.
December 22nd, 2015 at 5:09 PM ^
Very good point. Forcing QBs to make low percentage throws with blitz pressure coming should lead to success, and Michigan quality corners should be able to make those windows even smaller against Clemson level talent than BC corners can.
December 22nd, 2015 at 5:45 PM ^
Fair enough, I see your point. Better to force some downfield throws which have a relatively low chance of connecting than getting gauged up the middle in the run game or leaving open easy throws underneath. Maybe DJ should have considered this strategy against OSU instead of spending his week interviewing for the next coaching gig.
December 22nd, 2015 at 6:26 PM ^
I will forever wonder how the OSU '15 game would have been different if Durkin's focus had not been split between game-prep and job-hunting that week. Perhaps it wouldn't have made much of a difference, but we will never know...
December 22nd, 2015 at 8:26 PM ^
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December 22nd, 2015 at 9:53 PM ^
You may be right. But the fact is that Durkin had no response prepared when plan A got blown away in the early 3d quarter. The game was decided after OSU's first touchdown in the 3d quarter, the score still 21-10. It was decided by Durkin's complete no-response to what everyone in the stadium could see what taking place. So, yeah, when that happens people are going to wonder if the fact that you were searching for a job that week had an impact. I wonder if Harbaugh's chippy "looking for a better DC than Durkin" comment suggests a similar opinion on his part.
December 23rd, 2015 at 5:14 PM ^
December 22nd, 2015 at 5:12 PM ^
Ask yourself which returning Big Ten QBs for 2016 can make 1/2 of those throws, then you'll feel better.
December 22nd, 2015 at 5:39 PM ^
A good QB/WR combo is going to complete 2 of those 3 plays for long gains.
Yes - Michigan will have better talent than BC. Michigan still won't be at a major talent advantage against OSU, so that argument is missing the point. We can't just rely on talent to beat people.
What Seth indicated matches the descriptions of Brown's offense -- it is very similar to what Michigan already ran. Namely: a powerful DL that employs stunts to get pressure and physical man-to-man CBs. Brown's more aggressive and creative with blitz packages, but it sounds like we should expect a lot of continuity in scheme even if they change the name from "Buck" to something else.
December 22nd, 2015 at 6:03 PM ^
Talent will explain the difference against PSU (Hackenburg bombed BC in '14 when their DBs weren't good yet) but it's not going to solve things against OSU, Baylor, Oregon, etc.
So - the questions is -- what will? And if the answer is nothing -- then will Brown adequately mitigate the damage and how?
Stacking the box and playing risky one-on-one coverage isn't anything innovative. There has to be more to what makes Brown so successful across many levels and with inferior talent.
December 22nd, 2015 at 6:10 PM ^
I think the point is the talent difference between Clemson and BC (or FSU and BC, or ND and BC) is a lot larger than the talent difference between Michigan and tOSU.
December 22nd, 2015 at 7:09 PM ^
But Cook/Burbridge showed that you can beat one-on-one coverage, no matter how talented the CB is. Michigan may not have another corner as good as Lewis for a decade...
So yeah, it's a good strategy if you have a talent advantage. But Ohio State is going to blow you to bits sometimes if you don't mix things up. And BC got blown to bits several times in 2014. In 2015, not so much, but was it a change in coaching, better talent, just good luck? 2 of the 3 plays above pretty much boil down to good luck/bad offensive execution.
I'm just a little surprised that people are happily going the "imagine him with our talent" logic so thoughtlessly after Hoke/Rodriguez.
December 22nd, 2015 at 7:41 PM ^
Their corners were very young still and from what I've heard he lacked the corners in 13 and 14 to put them on islands which is the reason for the big improvementin 2015. Also, this post implies BC was giving safety help to a certain WR so unless a team had a Connor Cook and 2 Burbridges, Brown should be able to scheme against them. Against OSU, you have to force them to beat you and Meyer has never really had QBs who could make tough throws down field. His big passing plays rely on getting WRs very open because opponents over play the run.
December 22nd, 2015 at 9:55 PM ^
More athletic linebackers will help alot, being able to fill their gaps against the stretch play.
December 23rd, 2015 at 1:10 AM ^
December 23rd, 2015 at 11:43 AM ^
but it's a good way to slow down your offense too.
It's a good strategy if you're trying to pull off an upset (as MSU did w/o Cook @ OSU), if you have a bad offense, and if you have a great defense.
The unfortunate reality is that Michigan IS a substantial underdog right now against, OSU, so TOP/killing clock/limiting possessions is probably our best bet.
December 23rd, 2015 at 12:01 AM ^
Brown also runs a bit of MSU style quarters coverage as a change-up, as opposed to Durkin who felt content to stay in Cover 1 man all game.
December 22nd, 2015 at 5:45 PM ^
That's one of the better QBs in the country and those were tight enough windows that I'm confident most times it wouldn't be successful.
No defense is going to "stop" OSU. What killed UM was OSU's ability (with a record-setting RB) to grind up the defensive line for lots of yards on 1st down. There isn't a silver bullet to stop that except try to be aggressive and have LBs and linemen who can tackle in space. Maybe next year, with UM's corners hopefully being even better, they can bring down a safety and do a 1-deep, but that's about it. There will be wrinkles; my guess is that Brown will do what he can. But at some point, people have to accept that ridiculously talented offensive teams like OSU are going to be something UM has to deal with on both sides of the ball.
December 22nd, 2015 at 5:56 PM ^
Don't have 3 starters go down on your DL.
December 22nd, 2015 at 6:40 PM ^
and walk the safety down into the box since that worked every time
December 22nd, 2015 at 7:08 PM ^
December 23rd, 2015 at 10:03 AM ^
That always helps.
December 22nd, 2015 at 6:38 PM ^
December 22nd, 2015 at 5:35 PM ^
I'd be careful about taking much out of that Connelly article, and the way you present it here is pretty misleading. It's based entirely on which teams force the greatest percentage of solo (rather than assisted) tackles. I'm skeptical that's correlated with scheme in any meaningful way. Case in point: 2014 Michigan is the 44th "spreadiest" offense on that list. Guess where 2014 OSU is? 84th, just below the spread pantheon that was 2014 Iowa (77th).
I rest my case.
December 23rd, 2015 at 12:46 AM ^
Didn't I say that article has issues? The point was BC's schedule didn't have many spread teams, and I gave it as something more concrete than "trust me I watch more football than is considered healthy."
December 23rd, 2015 at 8:49 AM ^
Fair. Sorry, didn't mean to snark. After looking at that article though, I'd much more trust your opinion on how spready BC's schedule was than any metric from the article.
Also, goes without saying, but thanks for the article. I enjoy this website.
December 22nd, 2015 at 5:41 PM ^
The above 3 plays don't really answer any of my questions about how Michigan will defend the spread. Was the one running play they snuffed out significant?
It appears to be the same thing Michigan ran all year. Michigan tried to run it against Indiana too - without much success. Is the only difference having a healthy DL?
December 22nd, 2015 at 9:58 PM ^
The difference with Clemson is that Deshawn is a deadly downfield thrower, whereas Indiana and OSU were steam-roller running teams. So while you keep the safety back against Clemson, maybe you think about rolling him up against Indiana or OSU. Maybe around the time they are crossing the 250 yards rushing mark you could think of bringing the safety down. My older brother went to Kentucky and so only knows college basketball. And even he said to me in the fourth quarter, "Why is that safety so far back every play when they are bludgeoning you with the run?"
December 22nd, 2015 at 6:39 PM ^
I honestly feel much better after seeing in the breakdown that he runs a similar defense to what we had ran this past regular season.
I think the most important upgrade in defense in this hire that I hope to see and that I have been reading about is how agressive he is with this defense and that he can bring blitzes from anywhere.
IMHO, Even with a good/great defense this year, it seemed all too often that the defense was always trying to react to what the opposing offense is trying to do instead of attacking. It almost seemed the like the defense wanted to line up and see if the other team can beat them straight up instead of being agressive, attacking to make things happen.
Maybe thats why our turnovers are lacking, the pressure is there against talent inferior teams, but with talent rich teams, creativity in pressure is a must. I don't know maybe Im looking at the wrong thing or maybe the talent at LBs is hamstringing the defense in what it can do but it seemed like Mattison often brought extra peeps off the edge like Kovacs/Jake Ryan instead of hoping our DL wins one on one.
Maybe I was spoiled growing up watching Jim Johnson's eagle defense, but I hope to see a defense where athletic players are blitzing the crap out of the offense and the other team's offense will have to react to our defense.
December 22nd, 2015 at 7:21 PM ^
Our defense was really really good this year. Continuity is a good thing.
things to improve:
- Don't lose 3 starting DLmen
- Don't have your DC interviewing for HC jobs heading into your rivalry week
- Get a better, more vaired, gameplan against spread teams
- MOAR Aggression (though this might mean fewer shutouts and risk getting bombed by someone who should not bomb you)
If you can't tell - I think people are overreacting to the OSU game.
December 23rd, 2015 at 1:38 AM ^
" If you can't tell - I think people are overreacting to the OSU game. "
Totally agree with what you said ..... I mean we basically beat Michigan State .. yes I know we lost ... fluke play wins it for them very last second literally. Then State beats OSU. We lose to OSU just because it happens.
1st year with JH. I didn't expect miracles and all this .. ."Hoke always played them closer" stuff is utter nonsense. We didn't have our best D'Lmen playing but it's no excuse, we just got whooped. It happens.
Sometimes a team also just has your number that day .... Great year this year ... I do think Brown is a good hire. Happy he is here. That breakdown also helped see it is so.
December 23rd, 2015 at 3:43 AM ^
How are people overreacting? We got ground to dust by two similar offenses and were able to come up with zero answers in stopping it or even slowing it down.
Don't we have to play OSU again next year? Is OSU going to suddenly stop running the spread? Are going to face fewer spread teams next year? Are we going to be able to win a B1G championship without beating Ohio State?
I'm not really buying the injuries execuse. Injuries happen to every team. MSU beat OSU without their best player, and OSU won a natty with their 3rd string QB. If you plan for beating Ohio State is basically hoping to never having any important injuries, we might as well give up any championship aspirations right now. Besides, losing Glasgow doesnt excuse Durkin's faiure to commit numbers to stop the run -- if anything it made it even more important to bring extra help inside the box.
Needless to stay, im not really buying the "Durkin was too distracted with job interviews" excuse either. Durkin had a shitty gameplan, but it was basically the same shitty gameplan that we saw against Indiana.
If you are facing a run based option team, you are facing an offense that wants to run whenver possible and will only resort to passing when the run is taken away. As a defensive coordinator facing such a team, your first priority is stopping the run. If you can't stop the run, nothing else you do even matters.
Ohio State is an elite running team.They are not an elite passing team. If you can forcing a running QB to take low percentage passes down the field, you are winning the percentage game. Even if you get burned downfield a few times, the advantage of committing numbers to the run are:
(1) You are taking away the #1 thing that offense wants to do (and where they have the greatest talent advantage).
(2) You get more 3 and longs, and predictable down and distances and more effective blitzes.
(3) You force more 3 and outs and shorten the amount of time that that defense is on the field.
Let them throw the ball and take their chances. If they manage to consistently beat Lewis and Peppers then you tip your hat to the better team, but if you are going to voluntarily allow the ball in the hands of their best players -- against an injury depleted DL unit -- and bring no help while they run the same few plays for 3 straight quarters, then I think you fucked up.
December 23rd, 2015 at 7:46 AM ^
December 23rd, 2015 at 12:03 PM ^
because everyone is going to struggle when they lose 3 starting caliber DL to injury. Yes, injuries happen. No, teams don't recover from losing 3 guys from the same position group (see Baylor's loss to Texas). Ojemudia was poo-pooed as no big deal around here but it was - RJS spent 3 years on the bench for a reason, and then you start throwing Ross in there too - those are panic moves induced by limited personnel. Michigan lacked edge rushers even WITH Ojemudia. Godin was an OR beside Wormley (who played at an all-american level) all year. Glasgow was maybe playing better than any DLmen and the only real every down NT they had.
In other words, they could afford to lose Glasgow OR Ojemuidia OR Godin -- but you couldn't lose all 3. (Not to mention Mone who fall under "injuries happen".)
Michigan was down to 4 playable DLmen against OSU (Charlton, Hurst, Henry, Wormley) -- That's IT.
Did I want another guy in the box - yes. The gameplan against OSU could have been a lot better, but there were significant personnel deficiencies by that time that were not easy to scheme around. And, you know, OSU is pretty dang good. Just because they stunk up the house against MSU doesn't change that.
I don't really buy that Durkin job-hunting affected things either, to be honest, but it could be part of the confluence of problems (DL injuries, bad matchup, bad gameplan.) that lead to an awful performance.
I have far bigger issues with the Indiana game than the OSU game to be honest.
Regardless, Michigan had one helluva defense this year and a couple of bad games after injuries struck hard at a key position group, doesn't change the OUTSTANDING job that Durkin did this year.
The instinct to happily run the guy out of town is simple-minded scape-goating. The sort of mentality that had people happy when Omameh graduated even though he was about to be an NFL starter.
Michigan had some pretty significant personnel limitations - most significantly the lack of edge rushers and athletic linebackers. What Durkin did on defense was brilliant. Flat out. People were saying WTF when we put our biggest DLmen (Henry) at DE and had Ojemudia standing up but it worked BRILLIANTLY. Durkin papered over this team's warts and got top 10 performance. That should NOT be forgetten so quickly.
How much better did Lewis, Peppers, Wormley, Glasgow, etc look this year than last year? Some of that is natural progression most of that is great coaching and putting people in position to succeed.
All hail Durkin.
December 23rd, 2015 at 2:11 PM ^
This is exactly what I'm talking about Trust. As good as the DL has played the strength might still be the secondary.
You got Jourdan Lewis, whos All American caliber, Peppers, the consistently solid Jarrod Wilson, and lengthy improving corners opposite in Clark, Stribling, Dymonte whos improving and Delano.
What other secondary would you want in the country to leave on islands in the entire country besides ours? I mean they have former QB as a WR so their WR's arent exactly lighting the world on fire but we don't put more in the box against their Heisman candidate running back?
If Morgan is too slow to react and Bolden doesn't react well, then have them shoot gaps and cause havoc in the backfield. At worst take up space so OSU offense has less space to work with and be more uncomfortable, especially when the DL is depleted.
I was at that game and it just seemed like OSU offense kept on chipping away and killing momentum and soon enough, fatigue either kicks in and we get hit by a deep throw.
December 23rd, 2015 at 2:37 PM ^
but they aren't shut-down-elite-offenses by playing man-to-man good. Nobody is. Peppers is not very good yet in coverage. Teams were openly picking on Clark at times last year. Lewis was awesome, but they tried the one-on-one thing and got beat by MSU...and MSU's 2nd WR isn't ANYTHING as good as what OSU has.
If you don't have good DL and LB, you can't shut down the run game. Michigan's DL depth was decimated. Michigan's LBs were not playing well. Secondary not going to much about that, even if Hill and Wilson are both in the box.
I think UM was damned if they did, damned if they didn't here. If Michigan went away from what got them there and moved their safeties up it would have been "didn't we learn anything from MSU". Instead it was "didn't we learn anything from Indiana". And yeah Indiana gashed us worse and is more like OSU -- again, I don't like the gameplan much either -- but Michigan was in a real tough spot.
I know what happened at the OSU game but scheme isn't the answer for everything and it's not so simple to change what you are about overnight. Wilson played high all year. The DL depth was zilch. The LBs played poorly. It's not all on Durkin.
Yes, in hindsight, what we did didn't work. The offense didn't work with Devin Gardner in 2014 either...doesn't mean Shane Morris was better.
December 22nd, 2015 at 8:59 PM ^
That defense is all over the place and plays like A Bunch of Crazed Dogs with their Fur on Fire.
December 23rd, 2015 at 1:06 AM ^
December 23rd, 2015 at 6:54 AM ^
December 24th, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^
Kelly's a spread to pass, really. He uses the read option sometimes but the base of his offense is West Coast passing from a spread. More Joe Tiller than Rich Rodriguez, or more to the point: Urban Meyer.
December 23rd, 2015 at 10:18 AM ^
But I would have liked to see the OSU game with a healthy Ojemudia, Glasgow, and Mone. I think we would have given up much less than 42, since we wouldn't have decided to freak out and play 3-Down linemen. All this to say: I think Brown will have more bullets in the chamber against OSU next year than we had this year.
December 26th, 2015 at 2:38 AM ^
December 26th, 2015 at 4:22 AM ^
December 29th, 2015 at 2:21 AM ^
December 29th, 2015 at 2:22 AM ^
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