The Official CoFoPo Prediction Thread
Oregon
Alabama
FSU
OSU
Skips the whole TCU/Baylor argument in general and forces the stupid Big 12 to make a conference championship game.
Can't possibly foresee this 4 team system sticking around much longer. Has to switch to 8 (5+3) format...
Sucks being a Michigan fan these days.
Edit:
I didn't notice that FSU only won by 2 points... I can also see a .01% chance that the committee drops FSU completely and goes with and both TCU/Baylor b/c the B12 >>> B1G = ACC.
Oregon
Alabama
TCU
Baylor
December 7th, 2014 at 12:04 AM ^
I don't think we'll get to 8 -- too many administrators seem concerned about the number of games played and the timing of keeping football a one semister sport.
Clearly it needs to expand, I could see 6 teams (with unwritten policy of every power 5 champion in) with 1 and 2 seeds getting a first round bye.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:10 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 12:18 AM ^
And there are only a small handful of teams that play those extra games, and it changes each year which teams those are.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:13 AM ^
if they set up right, most of the games could be played while schools are on break.
The whole 'the kids would miss more class time' is such a crock. Basketball players miss way more class time then football players do and that's both in the regular season and especially during conference tourneys and March Madness.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:29 AM ^
"Think of the children! Too many games!"
FCS Playoffs - 24 teams
DII Playoffs - 24 teams
DIII Playoffs - 32 teams
Same idea as the stupid arguments that a playoff wouldnt work in FBS. Everything being argued has been happening in the other levels for years
December 7th, 2014 at 12:06 AM ^
Alabama
FSU
Oregon
TCU
OSU
Baylor
Miss. State
MSU
Personally, I think 8 teams kills a lot of the controversy, which makes the regular season fun. Basically, teams like K State and Arizona would have been better off not playing for a conference championship. My max would be 6 teams.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:11 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 12:32 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 12:44 AM ^
8 teams kills the conference championship. Top teams could rest players if they wanted and teams like MSU and Miss State would already be in the playoff regardless of conference championship results. You are basically giving a bye to teams that are on the bubble.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:14 AM ^
could make a difference, especially if they did the quarterfinals at the home of the higher seed.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:49 AM ^
If you go with 8 teams you are giving someone a bye, unless you require the at-large bids to play in a conf. championship game.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:09 AM ^
Oregon, FSU, Alabama, Baylor.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:11 AM ^
-------- Bama
FSU
OSU
TCU
Baylor
-------- Oregon
December 7th, 2014 at 10:27 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 12:11 AM ^
Baylor beat 3 top 25
TCU beat 4 and lost 1 sooo according to this simple math osu is out.
Now both TCU and Baylor should be in the mix BUT Baylor did beat TCU. In that case according to the playoff rule if there is a tie, the tie breaker goes to the wining team. So Baylor should be in Period
December 7th, 2014 at 12:12 AM ^
Alabma
Oregon
Ohio State
Florida State
I thought the whole point of getting rid of the BCS was to take away any controversy. I feel like they are going to create more controversy with just the year of the playoff. How can you punish teams for winning? Some people are going to be mad tomorrow and they have every right to be,
December 7th, 2014 at 12:13 AM ^
Prediction:
Alabama vs FSU
Oregon vs. Ohio State.
Should be:
FSU vs Oregon
Alabama vs. Baylor
My Preference:
FSU vs Alabama
Oregon vs. TCU.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:14 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 12:14 AM ^
Also, ESPN, spare me the conference title game whining about the Big 12.
The B1G West is the old Big 12 North. The whole division is a joke. The 2nd best team in the B1G is in the East division.
Wisconsin lost to Northwestern. Michigan beat Northwestern in M00N.
Shouldn't that say enough?
December 7th, 2014 at 1:28 AM ^
Yeah and OSU beat Wisconsin by 59 and Wisconsin almost beat LSU and LSU almost beat Bama in overtime...isn't the transitive property fun? Get the fuck off the computer for five minutes kid and go live life a little. Or at least stick to posting on twitter so I don't have to read your idiotic fucking drivel.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:15 AM ^
Ohio State didn't play a ranked team till NOVEMBER. TCU played five ranked teams in six weeks from Oct 4th-Nov 8th. (mic drop)
— Onikuno (@Onikuno) December 7, 2014
December 7th, 2014 at 12:24 AM ^
How many of those teams are ranked now? Why should they get credit for playing overrated teams?
December 7th, 2014 at 12:28 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:10 AM ^
And TCU only has 2 top 25 wins.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:16 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 12:17 AM ^
TCU 30-7 Minnesota
OSU 31-24 Minnesota
only common opponent
December 7th, 2014 at 12:18 AM ^
OSU shouldn't get in, but they will. I actually hope they do, because Cardale Jones and Co. against Alabama would be hilarious.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:20 AM ^
OSU or Baylor should be in.
Baylor lost to West Virginia. If that's such a horrible loss then TCU should be punished for beating them by only 1.
SMU Baylor 45-0 TCU 56-0 Both blowouts
Oklahoma Baylor 48-14 TCU 33-37 Advantage Baylor
OK State Baylor 28-49 TCU 9-42 Both blowouts, advantage TCU
Texas Tech Baylor 46-48 TCU 27-82 Advantage TCU
West Virginia Baylor lost 27-41 TCU 31-30 Advantage TCU
Kansas State Baylor 27-38 TCU 20-41 Advantage TCU
Kansas Baylor 14-60 TCU 34-30 Advantage Baylor, bad win for TCU
Texas Baylor 28-7 TCU 48-10 Both blowouts, Advantage TCU
Iowa State Baylor 49-28 TCU 3-55 Advantage TCU
Baylor wins head to head and performed much better against Oklahoma and Kansas
TCU lost head to head but performed better against Texas Tech.
Put in OSU and call it a day. Next time the Big 12 should pick a champion.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:31 AM ^
Agree on the 6 teams instead of 4. Top 2 seeds get a first week bye and 3 plays 6, and 4 plays 5. If you are all the way down at 7 eff it man, you dont deserve to win the NC.
Anyhow here is how I project it and I will include the other 4 bowls - I a confused by the TCU v Baylor thing because they are co-champs and technically Baylor is the real champ but the committee seems to be sending a message about their horrific OOC. They also sent FSU a message about not winning in decent fashion but that message wont be to send them out of the playoffs. And tonight was a quality win vs the #11 team. The only question is TCU v OSU and if those guys are #3 or #4. I think FSU moves up a slot in fact after the "message was delivered" last week.
Best guess
- SUGAR - #1 Bama vs #4 [committee choice of OSU or TCU]
- ROSE - #2 Oregon v #3 FSU
Of the remaining bowls, only the Orange has tie ins - ACC 2nd place vs the highest non champion Big 10/SEC team. Unfortunately that is MSU. That one is basically a guarantee. The other 3 games are at larges.
- ORANGE - Georgia Tech (guaranteed) v MSU (yes even if OSU doesnt go to playoff because OSU is a champion)
- COTTON - Baylor or [loser of OSU v TCU] v Miss State
- PEACH - Baylor or [loser of OSU v TCU] v Ole Miss
- FIESTA - 2nd highest ranked 3 loss team not named GA Tech (AZ or KSU or GA or Missouri) v Boise State
-----
Final standings
- Bama
- Oregon
- FSU
- OSU or TCU
- OSU or TCU
- Baylor
- MSU North
- MSU South
- Ole Miss
- GA Tech
- KSU or GA or MO or AZ (all 3 loss teams, whichever is put here gets to the Fiesta)
December 7th, 2014 at 12:26 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 12:32 AM ^
1. ALABAMA
vs.
4. OHIO STATE
2. FLORIDA STATE
vs.
3. OREGON
Predictions? Ohio State over Bama (yeah, I said it), Oregon over Florida State, and Oregon over Ohio State in the NC game.
I really don't WANT any of this to happen (except for OSU losing in the end), but...the way it's going right now, I'm pretty much doomy and gloomy.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:34 AM ^
Oregon
FSU
TCU
They are not going to drop TCU 2 spots, and if they thought the Baylor was better, they'd already have them up there. I can't see them switching them now. I think OSU is out, just based on the fact that I don't think the top 4 change, because everyone handled their business this weekend.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:38 AM ^
I don't think the Committee is too hung up with spot positioning. In other words, I think they see it as a fresh slate every week. They ask themselves, OK -- right now, who are the top 4 teams in college football? Just because TCU was #3 last week doesn't mean that things can't change in light of the #5 team delivering a beatdown of epic proportions. See what I mean? Leaving aside where TCU and OSU are currently ranked, at this moment in time, does anyone really think TCU is a better team than OSU? If so, fair enough. I just don't.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:45 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 12:47 AM ^
No matter what happens, there will be at least one fanbase very, very upset -- and rightfully so.
December 7th, 2014 at 7:24 AM ^
You know what? After watching gameday final and seeing that ISU is 2-10, I agree with you. It is down to Baylor and OSU. How does Baylor beat TCU and not be ranked ahead? So, Baylor lost to WVU, but TCU lost to BAYLOR. I don't know. I think OSU looks as good as either, but I don't know which way they will go.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:35 AM ^
I think it will make major donors that much less likely to put up with anything less than a spectacular hire.
It's searching for the bright side, but after seeing that, I don't know how anyone can kid themselves as to what it is we have to do.
Maybe, just this once, OSU's commitment to excellence will finally push us to have some fucking self-respect.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:37 AM ^
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December 7th, 2014 at 12:41 AM ^
1. Bama
2. Oregon (should be swapped with Bama, though, IMO)
3. FSU
4. TCU
OSU is NOT getting in. There is no way they could justfiy getting OSU in over a team with one loss to a top 5 team on the road, when OSU lost at home to an unranked opponent. That's without including the fact TCU had a much tougher schedule.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:56 AM ^
Why do you think TCU had a much tougher schedule? Who did they beat?
December 7th, 2014 at 1:19 AM ^
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December 7th, 2014 at 1:24 AM ^
What are the 4 teams? I only count 2.
December 7th, 2014 at 4:38 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 10:32 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 12:57 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:04 AM ^
TCU beat Kansas by 4 3 weeks ago. They only beat West Virginia by 1. They beat Oklahoma by 4 while Baylor dominated Oklahoma. I don't see how TCU isn't being punished for that bad Kansas win. TCU isn't that good.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:21 AM ^
What the fuck are you on about in this thread?
Are you some sort of Buckeye?
I saw that shit you pulled above where you didn't list TCU's win over KSU as much more impressive than Baylor's win tonight.
I think there are arguments for each of the 3, but you're not playing this straight.
Wtf does a close win have to do with anything? OSU has plenty of them. Punish the shit out of OSU for needing overtime to handle fucking terrible Penn State.
And for losing by FOURTEEN POINTS - AT HOME - TO TERRIBLE VA TECH.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:28 AM ^
OSU might not get in, but saying it's clear cut and outrageuos to even consider it is just clearly objectively false. ESPN polled 40 of their contributors, and 23 of them have OSU in. It's well within the realm of possibility.
Also, many posters in this thread keep talking about "dropping" TCU. That's explicitly impossible by the methods and criteria that the committee has publicly stated they will use. Every week is a fresh slate, there is no "carry over" and no incentive to be "consistent". So they're not starting with TCU at #3 and OSU at #5 and looking for reasons to move TCU down and OSU up. They're starting with nobody ranked anywhere.
If it was at all close last week, I think OSU has a reasonable shot: TCU's best wins were against Oklahoma and Kansas State, both of whom lost today; and they beat up on a 2-win Iowa State team, which in no way improves their resume. So their overall case is weaker this week than it was last week. Meanwhile, however overrated Wisconsin may have been, beating them 59-0 clearly improves OSUs evaluation by at least some amount.
Note that I personally would vote TCU in over OSU, but I won't be very surprised if OSU squeaks in.
December 7th, 2014 at 2:27 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 12:41 AM ^
I don't see how TCU or Baylor playing one less game gets in over Ohio, with the way Ohio closed out the season. Big Ten may not be as good as some of the other conferences, but I believe it is better than the Big 12.
Plus, if Ohio doesn't go into the playoff, chances are they win their bowl game. If they get in, they can at least lose to either Bama or Oregon. I am rooting for Oregon all the way.