How bad will college football suffer from this?
You already know the spring season probably isn’t gonna happen so you’re talking about nearly two calendar years between B1G conference games being played.
Athletic departments will bleed hard from this season not happening. So much so that you almost can set your watch to the ticket and concessions prices going up more when it does come back.
How many people who are either season ticket holders or single game buyers that may not come back? That decide there are more important things in life to spend time and money on? Will college sports or sports in general see MLB 1994 effects where Fab interest is hurt going so long in between playing?
Or will people double down and spend even more money they’re undoubtedly going to be asking for?
August 12th, 2020 at 11:18 AM ^
Football will be fine but non revenue sports are going to get crushed. There is no way to generate enough additional revenue to offset the losses. A big reason for this is that the majority of these athletic departments are public and operate on a spend what you make business model. There is no cash set aside for a rainy day. Based on what I’ve seen in some articles, the losses are going to be astronomical to the point that if these were private enterprises they’d be insolvent and probably out of existence in 6 months.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:59 PM ^
I think there is a path for non-revenue sports to survive, but the model has to look different. For instance, baseball and softball could probably exist at (my guess) about half of their expenses if the MAC and B1G just said they were going to play in the late spring / early summer and didn't spend the first half of their seasons on the road. It would force some hands, but there are ways that these non-revenue sports can operate with radically reduced expenses.
Here's another example I was totally unaware of. Did you know that the 2020 Big Ten matchplay championships for men's golf was held in Palm Coast, Florida in February? How dumb is that on so many levels...
August 12th, 2020 at 1:58 PM ^
I think what happens will vary a lot by school.
They're going to looking closely at the costs of each sport. Everyone is going to be looking to cut back spending. For most of the G5 the way to save money is by cutting football. They may not find much money will be saved by cutting non-revenue sports. It will be hard to justify cutting them all in order to subsidize football.
For a school like Michigan, a ton of money has already been spent on facilities, much of it in the last decade. I don't think you're going to see them cut sports they've invested so much into. They can cut expenses instead, on travel, for example. Going forward, they could save a lot by not trying to keep up with the national powers in every sport.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:19 AM ^
Big Ten will wander down the road of irrelevance even farther to catch up to the PAC12, while the excitement of SEC and ACC games will make even more kids choose those conferences. Football is a southern sport, teams up north only dabble in it because, you know, the Rose Bowl was the granddaddy of them all - 50 years ago.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:10 PM ^
The only reason the ACC isn't an irrelevant conference is because of Clemson. FSU prior to that. To act like the ACC has more premier match ups week to week in comparison to the B1G is laughable.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:14 PM ^
Given the ACC is playing (at least initially) and the B1G is not this fall, I suspect the ACC will have some better match ups.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:15 PM ^
Well...you got me there.
I did of course mean in a typical year ye pedantic monkey!
August 12th, 2020 at 12:23 PM ^
Ya, it was a cheap shot on my part. Sorry, sort of. :-)
August 12th, 2020 at 1:42 PM ^
All is forgiven. Poo flinging is expected from the chimp exhibit.
At least I think that is a chimp?
August 12th, 2020 at 5:39 PM ^
Yes, I'm sure recruits will be dazzled by Boston College vs. Virginia Tech.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:20 AM ^
I wouldn't compare this to the '94 MLB shutdown since that was by choice and regular fans felt both the owners and players were being greedy. I don't think it will have too much of an impact on fan interest once it comes back, at least on tv, especially since that will signal some return to normalcy.
Fans in the stands are a different story. That will depend on how much the ADs jack up prices to recoup losses from this year, whether people are comfortable in massive group settings by that time and if people have found other hobbies for fall weekends so maybe instead of going to every game they only go to a couple (or none). For me, the tailgates and games are some of the best times I have during the year so I'll still go to as many as I can.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:28 AM ^
I think the fallout will really depend on whether SEC/ACC/BIG12 are able to complete a season. If they do (and especially if they make it to a playoff), that is going to be $40-$50M in TV money that each of those schools is going to get that the Big Ten and Pac-12 will not get this year.
That will give those schools a HUGE leg up going forward. Michigan, for example, will be forced to cut staff and potentially even sports. Meanwhile, SEC can ramp up recruiting efforts.
If there is no football at all - at least its an even playing field.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:56 AM ^
But only if the B1G and PAC don't play in the spring. If they're the only game on in the spring, the TV windfall could be significant. And then a delayed Rose Bowl with the historical participants? Could be incredible.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:45 PM ^
Why would they play in the spring? There won't be a vaccine, that's a binky for you all who can't stand the thought that we just have to wait for this run it's course.The US is at 10%+ infection rate now. That's good progress.
Of course, I hope I'm wrong, and we do get a vaccine. But if we do, it better not go to young college football players first. It should go to first responders, real old people, generally old people, middle aged people with co-morbidities, middle aged people, pregnant women, obese people and then to the people least affected by the disease; healthy young adults. When do you think that will be? 2022?
August 12th, 2020 at 1:02 PM ^
10+% infection rate already? Really? 32.5+ million cases already? (325m US population x .10 = 32.5m cases). While I believe that the reported number of 5.1 million cases is an undercount, you should probably note that you’re speculating when you throw out that 10% number, without citing to any testing data or modeling by an epidemiologist .
In reality,1.56% of the population has tested positive for CoVid-19. (See below). While I suspect this represents an undercount due to testing issues (and lack of access to healthcare), it’s incorrect to say that 10% of the population has CoVid as a statement of fact. If you want to say that epidemiologists estimate the infection rate is 6-10x higher than testing shows, that’s fine, but be clear about the fact that it’s an estimate. Someone reading your comment would rightly infer that there have been over 32.5 million Americans who’ve tested positive for CoVid, which is simply false. I’m not an anti-masker or CoVid Denise—by any stretch— but we need to be honest when discussing these issues.
CDC data on the hard numbers I’ve cited: https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/
August 12th, 2020 at 6:18 PM ^
Your CDC and WHO numbers are reported. That's just a waste of time. The mortality rate is .005. Run it backwards from 165k. It's around 10% or so.
In case you think you can trust those CDC and WHO numbers, Google Iran or India for how many cases some of their medical people think they have in their "lower classes". In some of the Indian slums they found 50-60%!! had antibodies. Iran's medical guys figure that 75% of their population has had it.
You all on this board are like me. Middle class, upper middle class. You don't understand at all the number of people in this country that have had it, probably know they had it, and don't care at all to get tested. On the list of things to do for that week, it didn't make it.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^
How we do higher education in general is going to change because of this
COVID is a catalyst that is going accelerate change in many aspects of our society and I fear we are heading for some difficult days economically in general before we recover
the only thing certain is that it's all uncertain. And CFB will be fine relative to the other problems we are going to have to get through as a result of covid
August 12th, 2020 at 11:31 AM ^
The landscape will be different in 2021. No way to say how different. Will Nebraska leave the Big 10 for good? They can legally challenge the Big 10 conference and opt to join the Big 12 or SEC. SO much will depend if the SEC, ACC & Big 12 will have a successful football season or not. That is a big TBD. Anyone can can reply and say for certain one way or another but we really won't know until it happens.
My fan interest won't change in 2021, I'll be there in support of Michigan football. I hope we won't see a ton of transfers and missed recruits in the mean time.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
I don't see why fan interest should be diminished, especially at a school like Michigan with tradition dating back long before TV money transformed college football. People will always care about the school and the football team.
Also don't see how this compares to 1994 MLB. This is caused by a pandemic, not someone's greed.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:37 AM ^
I agree spring football probably won't be played.
But on the off chance that the SEC makes it through a season without a disaster of outbreaks, football will be played in the spring, and the Big 10 and Pac 12 will be the only shows in town after the other conferences and the NFL have concluded, so it could actually give the conferences a boost in popularity.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:54 AM ^
There will be no spring football.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:45 PM ^
If the SEC has a bunch of outbreaks we won't know about it. They won't announce it and any player who gets ill will be kept out with a mysterious ankle sprain or a shoulder injury.
August 12th, 2020 at 2:11 PM ^
You're probably correct that the SEC won't accurately report case counts, however I think the general piblic might be able to figure that out once 27 Alabama players "sprain their ankle" on the same day.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:38 AM ^
People are doing way too much hand wringing over what is very, very rare one time circumstance. It'll be back to normal once this country pulls itself together
August 12th, 2020 at 1:28 PM ^
It'll be back to normal once this country pulls itself together
That's also looking to be a very rare circumstance
August 12th, 2020 at 2:45 PM ^
Yeah. Note I didn't bother putting any suggested timing of that. This country is 100% banking on a vaccine or I guess all the weak dying off eventually. Those are our only 2 paths out of this
August 12th, 2020 at 11:51 AM ^
It will not impact me or my family. We will buy season tix whenever the season starts. I can’t see fans abandoning the sports; these are kids not millionaire athletes and owners halting play over a labor dispute.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:52 AM ^
Absence makes the heart grow fonder.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:19 PM ^
Or, "out of sight, out of mind."
August 12th, 2020 at 11:53 AM ^
It will hurt the B1G if the SEC/ACC/Big 12 end up playing football and things go well. The B1G states they cancelled the season for players health, which probably is not the actual reason. The reason the B1G cancelled the season was the fear of covid lawsuits. Players and their families would be safer playing football. I'm not sure if I will ever attend a Michigan game again. We'll see how things go.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:46 PM ^
Says the guy trolling a random message post on MGOBLOG in the "offseason"...
August 12th, 2020 at 12:47 PM ^
So your view is university presidents thought they could safely play team sports, that playing team sports across the BigTen was the right thing to do, but decided against that course because of potential lawsuits? Laughable. Perhaps presidents correctly concluded that gathering hundreds of student athletes—and others that go along with their teams—together every week in multiple sporting events would spread more virus and therefore cause more sickness and disease. And this increased spread would threaten the health and lives of those that live in and around universities. Maybe there was a lot more to it than potential legal liability. Perhaps legal liability was a marginal factor in their decision.
August 12th, 2020 at 2:07 PM ^
If money was the primary consideration, the Big Ten would be planning for football in the fall. They're looking at massive losses by not playing. I think their potential exposure to lawsuits is way overblown.
Juries aren't going to award massive judgments unless they find the schools acted recklessly. The players and their families can be made aware of all the risks that the conferences know beforehand. Insurance premiums would be a lot less than the costs of not playing.
August 12th, 2020 at 2:43 PM ^
The Republicans want to fix that and have Immunity for covid lawsuits in the current stalled Bill..Why the Democrats are against this is beyond me..Businesses or Universities should NOT be legal liable.Why not sue over the common cold too??...Its already happening there are lawsuits out their in businesses (Tyson Chicken) where employees are suing their employer...that is very HARMFUL TO EVERYONE.thats ridiculous...
August 12th, 2020 at 11:54 AM ^
I don't get the argument that people will find "more important things in life" and not come back. You don't have to remove football from your life to appreciate the more important things. I'm a diehard fan, yet I would never miss a wedding or family party for a football game. You can have a healthy balance of both things.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:32 PM ^
Most weddings are boring.
August 12th, 2020 at 1:08 PM ^
Are you serious?! Every wedding Ive attended could be made into a movie.
I love weddings.
August 12th, 2020 at 1:09 PM ^
Of course, but it's not about doing what I enjoy more, it's about knowing what's more important.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:00 PM ^
The little schools will suffer. The bigger ones will be fine. I feel for all the little guys who will get hurt: vendors, stadium staff. But generally I think all the boo-hoo about the business comes from fans and coaches and ADs crying crocodile tears in order to justify playing. A year from now everyone will be back to make money. Like pretty much every other business.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:06 PM ^
I don’t think people will lose interest in the game of college football itself, but I do think this will begin to expose the monetization of the game and that will disaffect some people.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:22 PM ^
If CFB truly doesn't comeback until fall 2021, teams are basically all getting a ~50 player freshman class. Starting spots will still be stuck at ~27 or so (once you count nickel cbs, slots, punters and kickers). You'll have an overabundance of talent, with 6 year seniors keeping true freshmen off the field. I expect that talent to filter down to the lesser teams, causing all conferences should see an increase in depth in terms of quality teams. We should witness the greatest collection of talent ever on the field in college football history for the next 1-3 seasons.
Add that to the fact that hungry fans will be champing at the bit for any college football and the game could be the most popular it's ever been.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:25 PM ^
College football? Back stronger than ever. The NCAA? Dead
August 12th, 2020 at 12:30 PM ^
Cancelled CFB conferences/teams will return with a bang, either in the spring or next fall.
Hope springs eternal. We survived RR, Hoke, and 20 years of abuse by OSU as a fan base and are still nuts for our team.
Alumni and community members become and remain fans, 1 year won’t completely destroy that. Let’s be honest... if UM doesn’t play again until next fall, are we not all absolutely glued to the TV when they return? OSU, PSU, UW, etc fans will be just as passionate
August 12th, 2020 at 12:34 PM ^
Is it really that hard to believe many people like college sports, understand these are unprecedented times and act accordingly, and still will return to their fandom when it's safe to do so? I mean, if you're still a fan of college sports after numerous sexual assault cover-ups, wide-spread example of racism, inept handling of concussions, open disregard for the rules related to performance-enhancement usage, external payments to players, and even your run-of-the-mill corruption, I have hard time that this will break your fandom.
It's funny - I heard a bunch of people say "oh man, once those NFL guys started kneeling to protest systemic racism in police enforcement I'd stop watching"...and then viewership went up 5% last year. So yeah, people will wring their hands publicly and then go back to doing what they like to do.
August 12th, 2020 at 7:23 PM ^
Except that there wasn't much kneeling last season, and it seemed to me the national anthem wasn't even shown on TV for the most part. I think- at least I didn't notice it. (I admit I was watching more and more Red Zone). It's possible that the networks understood or at least believed it would be a net negative for them.
The NFL TV viewership has benefited greatly from fantasy football. This is not nearly as big of a factor in College football
August 12th, 2020 at 12:34 PM ^
Look at the bright side.
Don Brown can use the next 12 months to figure out how to field a defense that can hold OSU under 35.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:45 PM ^
I confidently foresee that absolutely, with total confidence, and without any doubt at all, that things in the future will be worse.
Or get better.
Or remain the same.
Nose "Tra" Dumbass
August 12th, 2020 at 12:59 PM ^
It should be fine in the longer term - IF a vaccine emerges, of course. That's still not a guarantee.
August 12th, 2020 at 1:04 PM ^
A year to get our house in order and things should be much closer to normal next fall. Life will go on.
August 12th, 2020 at 1:10 PM ^
The real question is how bad will the Big Ten suffer? And that remains to be seen.
The SEC, assuming they still play, will be just fine. In fact they’ll probably be getting big talent boosts from the guys jumping ship in the B1G and PAC-12, their TV ratings will be through the roof because everyone who would otherwise be watching B1G games will now be watching them.
The B1G is about to lose a shit ton of money, viewers, and their teams are likely going to lose a lot of talent to other conferences over this. OSU probably stands to lose the most over this, so if I’m Ryan Day I don’t let any schools within 100 miles of Columbus who might be coming to try poaching players away.