[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Unverified Voracity Is On The Moon Comment Count

Brian August 2nd, 2019 at 10:54 AM

Club of the moon. As they say: wherever you go, go blue.

Not a weird flex. A normal flex. A powerful flex.

Keith Jackson is auto-embed. From Dr. Sap:

[After THE JUMP: run or pass. There is no try.]

Run/pass balance assertions. There is a particular genre of playcalling fight that breaks out on the internet that's always rubbed me the wrong way. It usually centers around the fact that running is not very efficient compared to passing on a yards per play basis. This is true but not always the whole story, and the Athletic had an article that kicked over the anthill recently. The article itself is nuanced and actually concludes something reasonable…

After looking at all the research and talking with experts in the field, it seems clear the hard-line philosophy of the importance of establishing the run is outdated and disproven. But there is still value in being able to run the ball. It’s a tricky balance, but in building a team, general managers and coaches have to put more emphasis on investing in a strong passing game, but at the same time, they can’t lose sight of creating an efficient run game.

In 2018, of the top 10 teams in offensive DVOA (Football Outsiders’ measurement for a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play with a league average based on situation and opponent), seven were in the top 10 in rushing success rate. Eight of 10 had winning records and made the playoffs. So while there isn’t a correlation with traditional rushing success stats, there are correlations with running, winning and efficient offensive production.

…but a couple of rounds of telephone on twitter resulted in a lot of bad takes based on it.

Until now I haven't had a way to express my frustration with those takes succinctly:

It may be true that teams should throw the ball more, but just pointing at YPA versus YPC is not a case.

From a Michigan perspective I'm mostly interested in an offense that has effective play action because it looks like a run play Michigan actually, you know, runs. It's incredible how frequently that has not been the case in recent history. Al Borges had a lethal running quarterback and never attached play action to the power read that was the heart of the offense (when they weren't putting Denard under center). Last year's offense changed its run game midseason and most of the long balls were straight dropbacks with no attempt to fool anyone.

Run vs pass is a false dichotomy. Package vs grab-bag is more relevant, but also impossible to discuss with some stats. I want defenders in conflict.

So does Harbaugh. On hiring Gattis:

"What made me want to commit (to this) was really the quarterback position. Shea Patterson and Dylan McCaffrey, their explosive ability to throw and run," Harbaugh said last week. "They're used to that. Shea was used to that. Found that Shea was really better in the shotgun after being with him for the first season. We went more to it as the year went on last year. Also Dylan's ability to just get out and go. To run. Tremendous running ability.

"They're comfortable in this and this was driven by that. ... (Redshirt freshman) Joe Milton and (true freshman) Cade McNamara are suited for it as well. As are most quarterbacks who are coming out (of high school)."

What is this, a crossover episode? I am one of the foremost proponents of crazy rule changes and this scratches the itch:

In what feels like a modified version of hockey substitutions, a WNBA spokesperson confirmed to SB Nation each team will be able to deploy one live-ball sub per quarter during Saturday evening’s event.

These special substitutions will see one player in a designated “check-in spot” near mid-court wait for a player to tag her onto the floor. Only the team on offense can swap a player in while the ball is live. Additionally, a player throwing the ball in-bounds cannot be live-subbed. Regular substitutions will occur throughout the game as well.

All sports should experiment with rules from other sports. Bowling should have power plays. Etc.

Just in case. If 2021 QB commit JJ McCarthy ever pulls this out in a game it should definitely be in the waning moments of a Michigan State game:

You know, to send a message.

Our coach was recently in the NBA. Juwan Howard's take on Isaiah Livers is a different perspective:

"Man, so much talent," first-year head coach Juwan Howard said last week when asked about Livers. "So skilled. Big guard. Great attitude. Excellent work ethic. I know we haven't started the season, so no minutes right now, no games being played, but he's steady. I don't see anything changing for him when it comes to his attitude and how he approaches the game. We're going to lean on him a lot, and I trust that he will produce."

From an NBA perspective, yes, that is a guard. The NBA is a terrifying place.

Beecher shows out. Incoming freshman hockey forward Johnny Beecher is at the World Junior Summer Showcase with a large number of other top prospects, and he is perhaps the talk of the camp:

Easy to get buried on last year's NTDP; Beecher produced at a level that didn't look amazing but may have been better once you drilled down into his TOI and power play shifts, or lack thereof.

Cam York and 2020 goalie commit Erik Portillo are also in camp; Bob Miller on York:

York scored a goal in Sunday’s 7-1 USA Blue’s victory over Finland and has logged heavy minutes on both special teams, power play and penalty killing. He’s expected to serve in those roles for Michigan this fall, hopefully replacing former star Quinn Hughes' duty running the power play. While Hughes succeeded by his elite puck control, York is more of a pinpoint passer in man-advantage situations.

York will probably be less up and down than Hughes.

Guys in limbo down the road. 2021 commit Connor Levis is one of just a few WHL first rounders to not sign. No update on him in almost a month. No news is good news. Ditto Andrei Bakanov, who was picked in the CHL import draft by Guelph. He got traded for a conditional USHL pick and seemed very, very gone but if so it seems like there should have been an announcement by now. Instead Twitter is silent.

Etc.: Wonky Don Brown podcast. Franz as a shooting guard.

Comments

TrueBlue2003

August 2nd, 2019 at 2:56 PM ^

Exactly. And this is the primary reason for basketball going more to "small" ball, guard oriented perimeter play.

Sure, throwing bigs out there to post up smaller guys gives you mismatches in the post but those are only two pointers AND it has the negative consequence of clogging the lane.  Takes away backdoor cuts and dribble drives.

And on the other end of the floor, you give up more because a perimeter player that can break down a big defending him causes a lot more trouble: three pointers or drives that lead to help are more dangerous than a big posting a smaller guy.

 

username03

August 2nd, 2019 at 2:58 PM ^

I am making no comment on whether the reasons are good or not or even what the reasons are. I am saying no one of any significance in either the pros or college plays two bigs anymore and that I doubt that is a coincidence. This includes the most recent teams Juwan played and won championships on.

Michigan4Life

August 5th, 2019 at 12:10 AM ^

That would exacerbate the offensive issue even more. Defensively, they will allow more points per possession simply because Teske and Castleton aren't mobile enough to guard smaller players who can shoot or drive. They would be bleeding points. There is a reason why NBA don't play 2 bigs together anymore.

TrueBlue2003

August 2nd, 2019 at 2:47 PM ^

It does sound like it could happen.  Calling Livers a "big guard" and talking about Franz at shooting guard seems like they're setting up the possibility of two bigs.

I still don't think we'll see it much because I just don't think you can defend the perimeter well enough with Castleton and Teske out there at the same time (not to mention Wagner also likely being out there).  You'd almost be tempted to go zone with that lineup and maybe you do it a little bit as a changeup but very tough to play much zone in modern basketball.

The most reasonable path to getting Franz to the 2 and Livers to the 3 would have been Johns at the 4 but it sounds like he has some work to do.

maize-blue

August 2nd, 2019 at 11:57 AM ^

Often watching the body blow offense was frustrating as we had to wait until the 3rd or 4th quarter to see UM put a team away. Even against teams it would seem UM could squash from the start.

I hope they can finally use their talent in ways that make sense and if they can score early, then score early.

That is a big thing I am looking for from the Gattis offense.

goblue12820

August 2nd, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^

Agreed. It just puts so much pressure on your defense to hold down the fort while your body blow offense is busy punting. And then God forbid we get behind because we can't go up-tempo regardless of the situation. Will be nice to see us join every other good offense and start going using no huddle. 

dragonchild

August 2nd, 2019 at 1:47 PM ^

FWIW, I wasn’t opposed to the huddle. What bothered me is that they were bad at it. And no-huddle. They were bad between plays no matter what they did.

Get the play, get to the line, read the defense, adjust, snap. It ain’t rocket surgery, unless you have multiple OCs each with their own terminology.

imafreak1

August 2nd, 2019 at 2:56 PM ^

This body blow idea to wear them down and beat them in the second half, which I agree seems to be what the Michigan offense retreated to--at least at the end of the season--is hopelessly outdated.

It worked in the past, at least until the bowl game, because everyone in the Big Ten more or less agreed to do it that way. It still works against much of the Big Ten. But OSU no longer agrees to do it that way. Michigan keeps trying it and gets their asses kicked. The bowl game too.

That wasn't how Harbaugh won in the NFL. So, I don't know why he seemed to retreat to that position in 2018.

TrueBlue2003

August 2nd, 2019 at 3:12 PM ^

"I wish I had him more than one year," Howard said. "He's a coach's dream."

I'm gonna miss Zavier Simpson.  He's going to go down as one of the winningest players ever at Michigan, both in volume of wins as starter and winning pct as starter.

He's up there as one my favorite Michigan players ever.  I'm not sure who would be higher.  Maybe Jalen.  I was a little too young to remember Glen Rice. Trey is up there, but I feel like his legacy has been tainted by some of the things he has said and done since leaving Michigan. Ditto Webber.

A2Photonut

August 2nd, 2019 at 6:48 PM ^

Beecher, a 6'3 210 lb power forward as a freshman? 

Yes, please.

Was a little lukewarm on hockey last year, that raises my interest

for this year a lot.

Detroit Dan

August 2nd, 2019 at 11:35 PM ^

1. Michigan's offense was not the problem last year.  We went 10-1 until the defense collapsed for the last 2 games.

2. Harbaugh goes out and hires a new offensive coordinator, in spite of the fact that it was the defense that collapsed.

3. This (hiring Gattis) has worked incredibly well, despite the seeming logical inconsistency.

If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Harbaugh is a genius by virtue of common sense.

Lou MacAdoo

August 3rd, 2019 at 1:18 AM ^

I like everything about this post except for you making us remember Al Borges and the mess of an offense he coordinated.

Please stay Bakanov. Please stay Bakanov. Please stay Bakanov.

Alumnus93

August 3rd, 2019 at 11:09 AM ^

Livers at guard?  So maybe JH is going big like the Fab Five who had a 6-7 pt guard in Jalen Rose.