ESPN Playoff Predictor: UM 3rd Most Likely to Make CFP
I would like to see the team beat Notre Dame and win the B1G first.
April 17th, 2019 at 11:54 AM ^
Sure. Laughable. Yet if it were you, you would factor in the successes/failures of Brady Hoke and Rich Rod teams ("in the past decade") when deciding how good the 2019 team can be. And that seems reasonable to you?
April 17th, 2019 at 11:57 AM ^
1. Michigan is, objectively, the favorite to win the B1G. I do believe that. Not that Michigan doesn't have potential issues themselves, but the other B1G contenders have their own larger issues and/or tougher schedules.
2. Although it's been 3 consecutive years where it hasn't happened, it's a better than 50-50 shot that a B1G champion makes the CFP.
3. Thus, Michigan's odds to make the CFP are pretty good.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:42 PM ^
Yeah, when you put it that way it makes a little more sense. I think it is a little hard to believe for a lot of people in this fan base (including myself) after the awful letdowns of '16 and '18.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:44 PM ^
Road games in C'bus had a lot to do with those letdowns though.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:49 PM ^
I don't think last year had to do with a road game. That was happening regardless of whether it was in Columbus or on the Moon. '16 completely was though, I agree.
It certainly does not hurt to have that game at home, you are absolutely right about that.
I'll agree with that assessment of '18. Point being, the two best Michigan teams in the last decade had to play at OSU and had they played at home, they wouldn't have lost both of them, IMO.
We still have to beat Penn State in Unhappy Valley.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:14 PM ^
More like two decades.
I'm starting to think the downfall was because i started following them at that exact time.
April 17th, 2019 at 11:51 AM ^
I just can’t shake the feeling that 2019 will be 7-5 “Year of Infinite Pain”. I can’t find the optimism that M will beat the teams we all want them to. I hope I’m just reacting to the end of last season. I hope I’m just not knowledgeable enough to see how much better things are then they feel.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:00 PM ^
No, that was 2017.
This is our year!
-says increasingly nervous man for the 15th time in as many years
So you're telling me that "next year" has finally come in the form of 2019!?
April 17th, 2019 at 12:02 PM ^
I get the feeling, too, but with only high levels of pain. I think 9-3 with losses to ND and two random teams we normally beat. But we finally shake the OSU monkey off our back and beat MSU again.
'17 was a worse set up, had terrible execution and injuries at the worst positions where depth was already an issue ........and they went 8-5.
Not sure where this year even approaches that but, don't matter, this year OSU is a must win regardless of anything else.
Yeah I don't see why it's hard to see us doing better than 2017 at least. Similar schedule, except our QB is Shea in year 2 with a modern offense versus Speight/O'Korn doing Pep things. That alone should get us another win or two. Add in Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin breaking in new QB's (and new coaches for OSU), Michigan State forgetting how to fire bad coaches, and Notre Dame coming to us this year minus a hefty amount of nfl guys, and we should be alright.
Because this defense is so much worse than 2017 and the a few injuries can also devastate this lineup. I want to be wrong. Please let me be so wrong.
April 17th, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^
Yeah not falling for this crap again. Its ESPN trying to generate clicks, and moreover, until I see us beat OSU with my own two eyes, that game is chalked up as an automatic loss for me.
Don't care if OSU comes in 0-11 and we come in 11-0 having blown everyone out by 50. They've been living in Michigan's head, rent-free, for 20 years. Need to see it to believe it, because we will never even sniff the playoffs as long as there is a loss to OSU on our resume.
April 17th, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
Hell, tOSU can't even sniff the playoffs, and they win their rivalry game every year.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^
You're really using the lowercase t before OSU. Come on, man. *eye roll*
That's how you find the closeted Buckeye fans.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:04 PM ^
It's not rent free. Someone's paying that rent for them. That or they're selling their gold pants.
April 17th, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
lol here we go
April 17th, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^
I want to believe this, but Mfrank says our recruiting sucks. So...
April 17th, 2019 at 12:02 PM ^
Well UM is favored in every game this season according to Vegas. As long as UM can win on the road against PSU and Wisconsin I think we have a great shot. It's clear we're a different animal at home.
This is pretty frustrating if you think about it. We've been a pretty bad road team for way too long. At what point do we finally start to show up away from The Big House?
This year. It's happening this year.
Michigan was favored in every game last season too (not before the season but at game time). Very different than being favored to win every game. Good thing we don't have to win them all. Can slip up once, maybe twice as long as we win the one that matters most.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:10 PM ^
Fuck Notre Dame. We don't need to beat them. We need to beat Ohio State (more than twice in a sixteen-year span, too).
April 17th, 2019 at 12:13 PM ^
No talking about making the playoffs until we make the playoffs!
Am I doing this right?
April 17th, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^
On the heels of Virginia winning the national title (which everybody said would never happen playing their style), and Tiger Woods winning a major (which everybody said would never happen because of health and morality), and throw in Clemson becoming a football powerhouse (which squashed all of the "Clemsoning" nonsense that persisted for decades)…
Given all of that (and probably a million more I'm not thinking of), you'd think more sports fans would wise up and realize the past has no impact on the future. Sadly, not the case around here.
Michigan will win the conference. They'll beat OSU. They'll make the playoff. They might even win the damn thing. Maybe not this year. But it'll happen. Likely soon. None of anything that preceded it will give any indication that it's about to happen. It'll just happen. (Hi, 1997 team!) Those basing their negativity on past results are fools.
Nobody can do anything until they do. You guys are watching a 4 year old fall over trying to ride a bike and shaking your head at anybody who thinks the kid will eventually figure it out.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:47 PM ^
No, you are back to being completely unreasonably hostile to everybody on the Board after what appeared to be a sustained period of serenity.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:55 PM ^
In what world was that a hostile response?
April 17th, 2019 at 12:58 PM ^
The world where there is no reason to call people with a different opinion or perspective "fools" and creating a ridiculous straw-man where anybody who is questioning Michigan's playoff chops this year is claiming they will "never do it."
I didn't create a straw-man. I'm talking to the people who say Michigan will never do it, or implying that with statements like "I'll believe it when I see it". That means "I don't believe it". They don't believe Michigan can make the playoff. That's the person I'm talking to. If you didn't say that, and you don't feel that way, then I'm obviously not talking to you here and I don't know why you're responding.
Because you were throwing a fit for all of last years football season and I don't want to see that happen again. You have been a good versatile poster lately but this version of you(insults, put downs, straw-men) is not good for open free flowing discussion which is what I like to see on here.
John, I could not care any less what you think of me as a poster. Our interactions last year always seemed fine to me until you'd launch off the deep end with angry misquotes and one-word replies just to yell insults at me. In short, I think you're a head case. Sorry if that's harsh, but I want to be crystal clear that I don't need you tailing me around in threads in some psychotic attempt to approve my posts.
We stopped interacting for a while because every time we did, this happened. And here you are again, replying to one of my posts that we both have established has nothing to do with you, just to criticize my tone or my phrasing or whatever the hell you think you're accomplishing. You're doing nothing other than insulting and irritating me for no reason.
You have no say about what is or is not good for open discussion here. I don't care what you like to see. I'm not your friend. If you have a problem with this post, move along. I have problems with plenty of your posts, I choose to move past them. I recommend you do the same.
Reggie, I'm "insulting and irritating" you because that is what you start to do to other posters. I am not sure whether you drink or what, but you oscillate between completely reasonable poster to a troll-like entity complete with personal attacks etc. for no good reason. Your Tiger Woods rant the other night was completely out of control, and the one you posted the following morning to essentially apologize and rationalize your ridiculous tangent was equally alarming.
Who said we were friends? As long as your here to begin bashing other posters with insults and hyperbole I will be here to tell you that you are acting crazy.
Your interaction with me here in these half-dozen posts are why you are the absolute nuttiest candy bar on the shelf, man. Whose job is it to tell you when you're acting crazy? I don't want the job.
You're insulting me because that's what I do to other posters? What the hell does that even mean? So you just track anyone being rude on MGoBlog and tail them into threads and insult them as some type of retribution? That's what you're saying? Because I'm looking at your post history and that doesn't seem to be the case.
So then it's just me? You want to make sure I, Reggie Dunlop, post stuff you agree with? How did I gain this honor? Why are you obsessed with the content of my posts? Gonna be honest here - your actions seem a little off.
This doesn't have anything to do with Tiger Woods. This has to do with my post above about self-hating Michigan Football fans who are addicted to negativity. You thought it was about you or something and came out of the woodwork hurling insults at me.
You. Insulted me. Without provocation.
The rest is you doing some insane spin cycle never landing on a single reason or train of thought. It's about how I treat others! It's that I'm a great poster and you want to see me make great posts! It's because you are trying to control the dialogue on MGoBlog! It's because of Tiger Woods! It's because I insult people! (Notice how your rationale went from you like me and are trying to help - and then quickly changed to I'm mean and you're just giving me a dose of my own medicine? See that? That's you being an insane person.)
I didn't engage you. You took this conversation down this path. Some random guy above called you out. "In what world was that a hostile response?" It wasn't. You started this. This is me ending it. Go away, John.
Look further up on this post. You "engaged" me with your "you worry about Army for me" and "see you in the fall" bullshit when I was simply talking reasonably. Some guy who isn't familiar with your meltdowns asked me how your other post was hostile, and I explained it to him.
You started this, one page above. This is me laughing at your "This is me ending it" line like you think you are a movie hero or something. Troll on Reggie.
Michigan always has a chance regardless of what people say. Based on recruiting rankings, talent rankings and the quality of the staff and assuming reasonable health, they should always be roughly a game falling their from winning at least the division. That's been true in three of the four years Harbaugh has been in Ann Arbor and the one year it wasn't had more to do with the recruiting gap from Hoke to Harbaugh and QB injuries.
Good stuff, Scooter. I'd +1 if points worked.
Exactly my point. We're right there. There is no magical or mystical barrier keeping us from the big goals. If we keep putting ourselves in position, we'll have our day. Believing otherwise is a simple defense mechanism from being disappointed so often.
I'm not guaranteeing it will happen this year. I'm taking exception to those who are guaranteeing it won't.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:33 PM ^
ESPN apparently hasn't been reading up on Michigan's defense this year, particularly the DT situation.
Sounds about right.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:33 PM ^
Oh sweet Jesus.... if I had a dollar for everytime in the last 20 years "Michigan will win this, win that.." "Denard will win the Heisman... " can't take any more of this without some actual results.
No one said they will do anything. This model is giving them a 41% chance which means they are actually expected not to make the playoff by this model. Sooooo, ok guy.
April 18th, 2019 at 12:01 PM ^
I don't want to hear %'s either, GUY. Who gives a shit about our %?
April 17th, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^
41% chance to make the playoff seems incredibly high before a season starts. For any team
April 17th, 2019 at 12:40 PM ^
Means absolutely nothing.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:46 PM ^
This is entirely plausible.
The optimist in me says this newfangled offense, now playing with more pace, will put more pressure on opposing offenses to keep up, leading to more turnovers for the defense.
The pessimist in me says we go 0-for-November.
Destiny probably lives somewhere in between.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:51 PM ^
If Don Brown doesn't make defensive adjustments then this season will be the same as last
We were lucky last season that MSU, Wisconsin, and PSU had slightly down years