A different (and hopefully interesting?) question about the defense.
So, like most everyone, around here, I was pretty devastated on Saturday. But I was able to start watching the game in slo-mo last night and listening to the podcasts of Sam getting thru the day somehow, along with Spath and all the content here, it's given me some perspective.
I have my own ideas about what happened. We still haven't closed the talent gap. Their LB's and OL played much better than tape would suggest they could - quite possibly enhanced by some form of blood magick in those crazy Bucknut rallies they like to hold. /s (not really)
They did a great job of motion pre-snap to get the matchups they wanted - biggest difference I personally saw to explain the coaching differential. And this leads to my weird question ...
Something that has really driven me nuts post Ped St. (and possibly before) - all the energy we expend on defense getting into formation. I am no football guru like Brian, Seth, Space Coyote, Magnus, etc. But I do understand, from reading, that when you play a 4-3 Over (for example) it is important to designate a SDE and a WDE and the system is so prevalent that all the recruiting services pretty much designate the recruits at DE into one slot or the other. And, with us, in 2018 - it's easy to see that Rashan and Chase are on total opposite ends of the DE spectrum. Rashan is almost into the 3 Tech territory and most NFL draft people expect Chase to be an OLB in the pros. So, it seems to be important for them to fit into those opposite slots.
But, this is the thing - the offense (especially one like OhowIhate which uses an H-back much more than a TE) totally has the option of flipping the defensive assignments by motioning the H-back (or TE) to the opposite side and flipping the side from weak to strong - thus putting the DE's in the wrong slots. This seems especially important for us because (at least IMO) Chase plays the optioned DE much better than Rashan on the basic Zone Read.
Also - with DB's defense you have that viper position (which is basically a hybrid Safety/LB playing the SAM position unless he has a slot Rcvr to cover). When the strong side flips then the LB's also have to flip.
Point is - with simple motion they can change up our assignments - A LOT. And it is quite easy for them to get an advantage out of this. The bad guys first play from scrimmage is an excellent example of this. Khaleke, after finally adjusting and getting to the right side, blitzed. It was a Zone Read. Gary was optioned, crashed hard on the RB, Haskins pulled - Khaleke (in a way that I am fairly certain was not drawn up this way by DB) totally ignored Haskins with the ball, and what I would assume to be his gap, and looked like he was trying to beat Rashan to the RB. Rashan noticed it quicker and broke off the RB back toward Haskins and was a good two steps ahead of Khaleke. Yeah, not an auspicious start - and maybe it explains a few things about the year Hudson is having. But all that aside ...
My question is this ... I have a bad feeling about all this energy wasted pre-snap and wonder if it could be the undoing of DB's defense. But, I have an awful lot of respect for DB. You just don't have the #1 defense at Boston College in the ACC facing Clemson and Fl. St. along with others and not know a few things about how to fix your apparent problems. I think he will meet the challenge - and I'm wondering - if this does become a major problem - offenses taking advantage of energy wasted due to switching assignments and formations.
Is it possible Don Brown may solve this particular problem with symmetry? In other words scrap the whole SDE/WDE system since the defense really has no control over enforcing that it ends up the way they designed it. Furthermore, could we see more changes - inducing more symmetry - such as a double viper? He's been recruiting a lot of viper types, it seems to me. And anything to get Devin Gil off the field more has got to be a good thing, right?
So, am I crazy? Am I missing something?
November 27th, 2018 at 9:06 AM ^
It's okay to acknowledge that Meyer is a better coach than Harbaugh. Meyer is a top 5 coach of all time. No shame in being something less than that while still very good in your own right.
November 27th, 2018 at 9:58 AM ^
Meyer is tough to beat when he has a good team and he's dialed in. But somehow he's managed to drop at least one clunker a year (he almost had a few this year). Great coach, but he obviously has some issues that impact his inconsistency. Saban doesn't have those same issues, and so far, Harbaugh's teams seems to have a lower standard deviation from their mean.
Unfortunately, he's especially dialed-in against us, especially at home and as a dog. We are always going to get 100% of his attention and 12 weeks of his preparation. We will always have an uphill battle as long as he's there. Fortunately for us, all of those traits that make him a great coach are eating away at him from the inside out.
November 27th, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^
There is no debating your last point.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:55 PM ^
I wonder how much penalty yardage Brown's BC defenses gave up. It seems like defensive backs have little choice but to hold or interefere if they're at an athletic disadvantage, and surely they didn't have high-level athletes at BC. Penalty yards could help keep your defensive numbers (yardage wise) looking good. I suppose scoring defense would be the best measure. Not sure if his defenses are similar in rank, historically, when comparing total defensive yardage and scoring defense. Just a thought after watching Saturday's debacle.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:04 AM ^
I noticed we're getting a lot of penalties this year, and we are 101st in the country for fewest penalties, not great. Northwestern has the least penalties in the country. At BC Brown's defense averaged 6.5 penalties a game for 53.2 yards per game. In 2018, Michigan averaged 5.9 penalties for 57.3 yards, whereas Brown's first two years we gave up around 45 yards of penalties. Overall it appears Brown gives up around 6 penalties defensively a game for about 55 yards. He's on par with BC stats.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:20 AM ^
So I guess the next question would be how many penalty yards do other top defenses give up. I'm guessing if you replaced the 55 penalty yards with 55 yards allowed, we'd drop a bit in the defensive ranks. But if the other teams at the top are being penalized close to the same amount, then it's a wash.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:56 PM ^
I noticed that too. Dad and I were watching the game and commented on how much our dline is always moving and never seemingly set up in time against hurry up teams. I look around and other teams typically don't have this issue of the dline not being aligned in the right spot or making last second adjustments. Good thought, trying to find an additional problem to our lack of pressure besides we suck or that we are slow.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:04 AM ^
I think a large part of the last second adjustments are part of the defense disguising it's true intentions. They align a certain way to fool the QB, and they revert into position at the last second, not to react to what the offense is doing, but because that is what they were planning to do all along.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:09 AM ^
But it gets our guys caught out of position or plainly standing up. Don't see other teams with that problem, and we aren't the only school with a quality defense. Guess little things like that really come out when you give up over 60 and your pissed off at everything.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:15 AM ^
Possibly, but the same thing happens with the defense in every game, not just against OSU. We realign right before the snap and sometimes aren't completely "set" when the snap occurs.
If OSU scorched us, and no other team did, but the late pre-snap realignments were prevalent in all games then I don't think the alignments were the differentiating factor. I think OSU being better at speed and at preparation are the more likely culprits.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:10 AM ^
Yes, the problem seems really exaggerated against tempo. The D-line often gasping for breath and not quite making it back to the line in time.
I don't watch other teams enough to really analyze them, not even other teams on D against our O. I just notice that we have a bit of a problem with it.
Again, I am not trying to lay all the problems of this game two days ago at the feet of this problem. I'm just playing that guessing game we like to do here on occasion. What if ... what if this becomes a bigger problem for DB in the future than it has in the past? How will he handle it? Is it a problem that every team that plays with a defensive formation predicated on strong side alignment has? Has the revolution already occurred on television and I wasn't watching?
November 27th, 2018 at 7:00 AM ^
“Is it a problem that every team that plays with a defensive formation predicated on strong side alignment has?”
Every defense plays with a defensive formation predicated on strong side alignment. Every single one.
November 27th, 2018 at 10:05 AM ^
It has most certainly not always been so.
A few years back you had "field side" and "boundary side" defensive players.
Perhaps it is time to return to that?
November 27th, 2018 at 9:14 AM ^
I believe the late DL movements started when Greg Mattison got here. You couldn't ask for a better DL coach but I do wish we could eliminate the late set ups.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:57 PM ^
Khaleke Hudson did not have a great season in my opinion. Just average.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:01 AM ^
That’s really what it comes down to: Urban’s Jimmies are better than Harbaugh’s Joes. A top 10 class with 25 kids looks great on paper but when more than half of those kids are sleepers and 3 stars then you get what happened on Saturday.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:02 AM ^
The biggest takeaway from the OSU game should be that offense dictates games. Unless you're recruiting like Alabama, you aren't beating teams with a suffocating defense and a plodding offense, not in 2018. You have to dictate the game through your offense. That is the biggest advantage OSU has had over Michigan since the Tressel era. Their offense dictates nearly every single game. They're in control from the start because of it.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:07 AM ^
Agree. Football is moving to more scoring. Instead of defenses like the 1997 where you hold a team to 9 points, today a good defense should be based on recording timely turnovers and timely stops. The Big 12 is allergic to defense, but after watching the WVU/OU game it's clear why OU and now Texas are the best two teams: their defenses make timely stops when needed to set up their high powered offenses. Defense will always be crucial to win championships, however the definition of a good defense has changed imo.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:23 AM ^
Nice comment. It's the 1 or 2 or 3 defensive series that seem to turn a game in B12.
I do think we have a staff that will adjust after 62 points and 550+ yards.
The worst thing for us would have been another 30-27 2 OT loss when we think "we have it right and are so close"
November 27th, 2018 at 1:42 AM ^
I'm doubtful that Harbaugh will make drastic adjustments. Frankly, there's no pressing reason for making drastic changes when you win ten games. And there lies the problem. Michigan can beat everyone but one team in the Big Ten doing what it does. But if it wants to take the next step, the program has to develop an offense capable of much more explosiveness.
I'm doubtful that Harbaugh will do that, though. If I'm being honest, I think we're looking at a Les Miles at LSU scenario. A good/borderline great tenure, but everlasting questions of, "What could have been?"
November 27th, 2018 at 7:06 AM ^
That they did make that change three years ago with the defense should be assurance enough that they can and will. Now, I know that’s an odd comment to make (about the defense) after Saturday, but it’s important to note that our defense was redesigned to stop that one offense. It just turned out that one offense had a one year blip (this one) where it flipped from a running spread (which this defense IS designed for) to a passing spread (which it is not designed for, or at least currently configured for, nor does it yet have enough established talent for). Next year it’s back to a running spread.
November 27th, 2018 at 8:06 AM ^
Even if Haskins goes pro, Meyer/Day are not going to abandon the mesh an crossing routes among their base plays.
Meyer hired Day and Kevin Wilson to run the offense. The days of a JT Barrett type of offense will not return. Meyer is always evolving his offense.
They probably want to be a little better at running than this year, but even if Haskins goes pro, next fall they will still be running that plays that beat Michigan this year and in the 4th quarter last year a lot.
So Brown is going to have to build a D that can stop that stuff, or keep getting lit up.
Given what happened in the 4th quarter in 2017, and given 11 games of OSU film from 2018, it is really unbelievable that Brown failed to come up with a scheme that could give Michigan a decent chance.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:58 PM ^
i wonder if osu will go after a senior graduate QB transfer to run the offense next year
November 27th, 2018 at 1:20 PM ^
Of course they evolve, and will continue to run that, BUT the major issue is whether they will have a guy at QB who can execute it consistently enough to be dangerous. In all of Meyer’s years of coaching he has had two (Alex Smith and Haskins), maybe three (Cardale Jones). Given his number of years of coaching those almost feel like flukes and it’s not like any were highly regarded recruits coming in.
November 27th, 2018 at 8:43 AM ^
I've actually come around to this idea too. In this one specific game you can blame the defense but if we are ever going to become an elite team we need an elite offense. Even Alabama recognizes it and they have multiple recent championships built around their defense. Right now the top five total offenses by yards are Oklahoma/OSU/Clemson/Alabama/UCF.
I know we used to rack up yards and not win back in the RR days but if we want to take the step from good program to elite we need a modern dynamic offense that can take over games.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:03 AM ^
Your question about whether being asymmetrical is a flaw in the defense that can be exploited by the offense shifting pre-snap is a good one. Given what you said, that SDE and WDE are such prevalent distinctions that even recruiting sites project high school players to one or the other, you have to assume that it's not a fundamental defensive flaw to build personnel that way. If it was such a glaring exploitable flaw, it wouldn't show up in so many defenses so frequently to the point that recruiting sites can project which position a kid is best suited to play.
Your other question about energy being wasted pre-snap seems unlikely to be an actual thing. Sure, moving requires more energy than not moving, but I don't think pre-snap alignment shifts contribute significantly to fatigue. It's like the difference between a pitcher's live pitches in baseball and his warmup pitches.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:23 AM ^
Thanx Dix, good feedback!
Let me just stick with my devil's advocate position for a smidge, if I may:
Yes the SDE/WDE defintions are deeply ingrained in the sport. But the fact remains that defenses really have very little control over which DE plays on the strong side after the snap. And if your particular DE's have wide enough trait or talent differences between them any offense can flip them any time they want to. Therefore, moving toward more symmetrical DE's would give the offenses less advantage in flipping them.
Also, I would suggest that DB's unique use of the viper is probably going to make his defenses even more strong/weak biased than most 4-3 D's which use a SAM and WLB, because it seems to me that there is more of a difference between a SAM, a WLB or WILL, and a viper. That is the viper is more the oputlier in traits than the other two.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:23 AM ^
I didn't have the patience to read every word, but I was annoyed by how often we were still moving around when OSU would snap it.
Then I would be doubly annoyed everytime it took us an ice age to call and run our plays.
November 27th, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^
I remember reading 5 or so years ago that Alabama was the team that used the most time between plays. Now, they're going to tempo, because Saban believes it's harder to defend.
Well, we saw it ourselves. Maybe Harbaugh is going to have to get his sideline more organized to get his fullbacks and TEs on and off the field quicker to get some tempo going.
Here's an interesting story about how Saban's offensive strategy has changed. Interestingly, they don't believe 'body blows' or limited defensive snaps are necessary. Completely opposite of what M is doing:
https://bamahammer.com/2018/10/09/alabama-football-nick-saban-will-not-slow-offense-help-defense/
November 27th, 2018 at 12:40 AM ^
"Chase plays the optioned DE much better than Rashan on the basic Zone Read."
I don't agree with this. Gary has plenty of speed and there have been plenty of examples of him playing the RB and QB well and being able to force a pitch and then chase down the RB for no gain. Maybe you mean mentally, but Chase has had a few mistakes in that regard too, most notably the long TD run from Rutgers.
I have no idea about the viper stuff though.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:56 AM ^
I'm still watching the game in slo-mo Gulogulo, and I just saw a play that would back up your pov. The play that Klatt (or Johnson?) initially called a sack. It was a zone read in the 2nd Qtr. and Rashan was on the weakside (Offenses Left) and he went halfway toward the RB, then saw that Haskins pulled and switched onto Haskins, who was dead meat because he had a LB right on him also. Rashan played that one well, it happens. But I saw him blow the first play of the game and I've seen it before. Rashan is often in a hurry to get upfield and when you start off that way against the zone read, you've got one foot in the grave.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:20 AM ^
Hudson had the SOPH jinx this year. Missed a few halves for targeting and seemed unsettled. I'm expecting a better year form him next season. If he is silly enough to go to the pro's (or try), he'll be at the local car wash drying my car along with Ernest Shazor and Donovan Warren who jumped a year to early.
As for Gil, give him chance to improve off-season. I was the Number 1 critic of Mettelus after last year, but, other than a few plays, he's had a much better year this year.
The key DB is trying to establish is CONFUSION - Meyer and Day weren't fooled because we played the same way we did for 11 games. That's why we need a distinct gameplan for next year that OSU won't expect but will be struggling to adjust to.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:54 AM ^
Our D line for whatever reason just didn't play well during the last few games of the season and that made the overall defense seem totally different.
The D line actually played bad against Rutgers and Indiana, but we kinda brushed it off as no big deal.
I mean, both of those weak teams rushed for almost 200 yards against us and we couldn't generate any pass rush against IU. The Indiana QB was getting plenty of time to throw the ball.
Many of us felt it was because IU probably had a good OL and we would do better against OSU's weaker OL.
Though it turned out that our D line was just falling apart down the stretch and was no longer playing good against anybody.
Now a lot of people are questioning Don Brown's defense, but the main problem was the D line just suddenly started playing awful.
November 27th, 2018 at 10:22 AM ^
Yes. This. It really is that simple. After Penn State our D-line fell apart. We can talk about formations and scheme until we are blue in the face. The biggest glaring problem was that our D-line got ZERO pressure against OSU. Zero. Haskins doesn't throw well when pressured or on the run. When he has time and is allowed to set his feet he's lethal. What happened to our DE's? They were lethal all season and then dropped off a cliff in the last 3 games. The entire DB defense is predicated on pressure up-front. I can count on my junk the number of times Haskins was hurried in that game. No pash rush and no RB/QB contain. Rutgers and Indiana were a harbinger of things to come. I am dreading our Bowl game.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:58 AM ^
OSU was using tempo at key points in drives and repeatedly caught guys without assignments.
Other times they were using motion and hard counts to diagnose and in a lot of cases successfully read the D.
A lot like Penn State 2017 where Moorehead was really mixing up the tempo/motions to confound the D. McSorely,Barkley, Gesecki, Robinson all took turns
Truth is, teams with 3-4 dangerous skill guys can whip this defense. OSU had Dobbins, Weber, Hill, Campbell, Dixon, McCall, Olave and if that wasn't enough their TE and blocking receivers got loose.
10 teams on the schedule have a guy or two the D can neutralize. 2-3 times a year a team with 3+ playmakers pops up. The D hasn't handled it well.
November 27th, 2018 at 5:37 AM ^
No offense, because I think concerns about pre-snap alignments/motion are valid, but I don't think there's much to this. If we're talking about expending too much energy, then you would expect to see a drop-off in production from Michigan's defense as the game goes along. I just don't see that happening with Michigan.
Michigan wasn't good against Ohio State's offense, but they weren't good from the beginning. The Buckeyes started off with a scoring drive, and they didn't stop very often. They put up 24 points in the first half, and they scored 31 in the second half (the other 7 came on special teams). That's only one additional score, and frankly, there's probably a bit of a mental letdown ("Dang, we're getting our butts kicked and the offense isn't doing much! This sucks!") that might not have anything to do with physical exhaustion.
All year long the defense was praised for the way they shut things down in the second half. Teams that scored 17+ points in the first half against Michigan were held to just 6 total points in the second half (prior to the OSU game). This one game out of twelve is somewhat of an anomaly.
November 27th, 2018 at 10:33 AM ^
Thanks Magnus, I will have to defer to your judgment. It just seems like a systemic flaw, to my non football analyst mind, to put so much stock in the S/W system for DE's when the offense can flip them at will.
Wolverine73 - you bring up a point I had not considered. Perhaps pondering that will prove more fruitful than all the time I spend watching football.
November 27th, 2018 at 7:01 AM ^
I keep hearing people say that OSU was just so much faster than our defense and perhaps that’s true. But if it is true, what could we possibly do about it? Don Brown said this was the fastest D he had ever coached, and we certainly aren’t going to be faster next year without Bush, Gary, Winovich etc.
November 27th, 2018 at 8:19 AM ^
This is going to sound like a sassy answer, but we could have played people who are faster.
The primary guy who got burned was Brandon Watson. We've known for a few years that Watson is probably our least physically talented cornerback; he just makes up for his lack of speed/quickness with other things (being physical, holding, being technically sound, etc.). Ambry Thomas is faster. There might be other guys who are faster (Myles Sims, for example). You could have inserted another safety in place of Devin Gil (J'Marick Woods, for example).
I'm not saying they would have been better options. I'm just saying that if your primary goal is to get more speed on the field, then there are other plausible people available.
November 27th, 2018 at 7:03 AM ^
What huge talent gap are people reffering to? Both teams have Nfl players all over the field. Its not like OSU wrs were mossing our dbs or burning them with crisp routes. They ran crossing routes and it worked.
They also put their rbs with wheel routes vs our lbs, every team in football does that multiple times a game except Michigan. I would ike to see Werner cover Evans 1 on 1.
November 27th, 2018 at 8:11 AM ^
Correct.
But some people think 'body blows' are the way to go.
November 27th, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^
If you look at those crossing routes, Parris Campbell's get-off is unbelievable. He is off the charts fast and so technically smooth. Watson was 2 steps behind him 1 second into the route. That is all a guy like Campbell needs to be gone. But the biggest scheme thing OSU did was to empty that edge bringing our man coverage DBs to the other side of the field. Result? Huge chunk plays and easy TDs.
We probably should have played more zone from the get-go and used a "contain" strategy to try to keep the score within range to make it a shootout. But that is not Brown's philosophy. He tried to solve the problem with more aggression, but OSU was not going to get in the trenches and fight. OSU made it a basketball game on grass.
Sometimes you "live by the sword, die by the sword" ...
November 27th, 2018 at 7:28 AM ^
I think the problem is this: you are a masochist. There is no other explanation for rewatching that abomination of a sporting event, unless it’s your job and you have to do it.
November 27th, 2018 at 8:16 AM ^
I can't get behind any talent gap reasoning. Last year Iowa and this year Purdue destroyed osu despite a massive talent gap. PSU, Nebraska, Maryland all could have beat osu despite another large talent gap. If all these different teams were put in a position to beat osu in the 4th and we already lost by the 3rd, then all of our coaches failed us miserably.
If you believe we have to out recruit urban to beat him on Saturdays then we will be winless against him for all eternity.
November 27th, 2018 at 8:29 AM ^
I mean, yeah, but OSU didn't play to their potential against Purdue. Teams are going to have letdowns, just like Michigan did against Indiana. There is a big talent gap between Michigan and Indiana, but that was a somewhat tight game. Playing against Michigan, there was no such letdown.
Also, I do believe the talent gap was a factor in a couple key spots. OSU has more good receivers than Michigan has good defensive backs. Chris Olave was the #399 player in the country, and Brandon Watson was #783. Parris Campbell was #139 in the country, while Josh Metellus was #739. Binjimen Victor, Johnny Dixon, Terry McLaurin, etc. were all highly ranked recruits, and they're more athletic than the combinations we can put together in the secondary.
November 27th, 2018 at 8:43 AM ^
I dont get what your trying to say. Damon Arnett was # 650 and DPJ was #12.
November 27th, 2018 at 9:03 AM ^
And 3 of our 4 starting DBs were ranked highly. Long, Hill, and Kinnel were 65, 132, 189. Two of which will get drafted this year or next.
November 27th, 2018 at 9:49 AM ^
...and those weren't the guys who got torched. Thank you for reinforcing my point.
Ohio State took advantage of their mismatches (Demario McCall vs. Devin Gil, any of their wide receivers vs. Brandon Watson). Talent gap.
November 27th, 2018 at 11:12 PM ^
Nope. Speed gap. Long and Hill were always known for speed and quickness.
You just named very fast osu players vs slower Michigan players. Watson has talent. He has proven that DESPITE his ranking you're stuck on. He does not have speed/quickness. He has also proven that.
November 27th, 2018 at 9:46 AM ^
That would be relevant if I was talking about Michigan's WR vs. Ohio State's DB. I'm not. I'm saying there was a talent gap at a couple key spots, that being our DB vs. Ohio State's WR, for example.