Big Ten Week Seven Lines/Over Under Predictions
To recap from last week, MSU (-16) failed to cover, beating IU by four at home. Wisconsin (-14) covered at Camp Randall over Illinois. Michigan (-3) beat the spread by a factor of about ten against Purdue, while Ohio (-4) did the same against Nebraska.
This weeks lines (from Caesars) and over/unders (covers.com):
Wisconsin @ Purdue (-2.5, 50)
Northwestern @ Minnesota (+3.5, 51)
Iowa @ Michigan State (-10, 41)
Ohio @ Indiana (+17, 60)
Illinois @ Michigan (-23.5, 49.5)
Nebraska and Penn State are off this week.
I'm somewhat surprised we're favored more heavily than Ohio. Their defense is not very good, but they should score basically at will against IU. We'll do very well against Illinois, I just don't know if I see 6.5 points of separation between the two games, even with IU playing at home. I also think the Northwestern spread is too close, I think they beat up Minnesota in Minneapolis. So, as always, how do you feel about this week?
October 9th, 2012 at 3:17 PM ^
Oddsmakers still like Purdue huh? I'll take UW to win that game.
Under for OSU/IU
October 9th, 2012 at 5:36 PM ^
Perhaps they saw how abysmal our non-Denard running game was and extrapolated that to Wisconsin's strikingly Denardless running game.
I expect Purdue to load the box and force Stave to beat them. I am not confident in either team winning and would stay very far away from betting on that game
October 9th, 2012 at 3:20 PM ^
I like Iowa and the under against MSU. Sparty's offense has struggled in every game, and took a long time to get going against the awful Eastern and Indiana defenses. Iowa's D has had good and bad games this year but I think they'll be up for this one.
Agree on OSU. Miller should be able to run away from IU's sketchy back 7, and Simon will disrupt a few IU drives singlehandedly.
October 9th, 2012 at 3:49 PM ^
October 9th, 2012 at 4:01 PM ^
Oh please, what a pussy.
/s
October 10th, 2012 at 12:50 PM ^
State beating Iowa senseless and giving me night terrors until October 20th. It just seems like something they would do.
October 9th, 2012 at 3:20 PM ^
I don't think we beat Illinois by more than 3 touchdowns. With Sparty next week, I'd suspect that if we take a big lead we either go into "don't get anyone hurt" shell mode or Gorgeous Al starts experimenting.
October 9th, 2012 at 3:25 PM ^
Yeah, I'll take Purdue. Wisconsin's win was at home last week and that game was close going into the 4th quarter against Illinois. They're not nearly as good on the road and I can see Purdue's defensive tackles just shutting down Wisconsin's running game.
Surprised that OSU's not getting more points, after Urban showed he has no issues with running up the score by leaving his starters in for a garbage time TD with 48 seconds left. The 60 point over looks attractive there as well.
October 9th, 2012 at 5:36 PM ^
Given the way we ravaged Purdue on the road, I don't see how we don't beat a significantly worse Illini team at home by at least 3 TDs.
October 9th, 2012 at 3:20 PM ^
Vegas is predicting about a 37-13 Michigan win. Sounds about right.
October 9th, 2012 at 4:51 PM ^
And Vegas is predicting the others to be roughly:
Purdue 26, Wisconsin 24
Northwestern 27, Minnesota 24
Michigan State 25, Iowa 15
Ohio State 38, Indiana 21
October 9th, 2012 at 3:21 PM ^
Sconnie
Northwestern and the Over
Iowa and the Under
Ohio and the over
Michigan and the over
October 9th, 2012 at 3:21 PM ^
Take Michigan MINUS ALL THE POINTS
October 9th, 2012 at 3:25 PM ^
in East Lansing also. I think Sparty's looking at Oct 20 more than any game right now.
October 9th, 2012 at 3:29 PM ^
IU may give the Ohio D some early problems.
October 9th, 2012 at 3:30 PM ^
Apparently I should start betting.... I would have went 5 - 0 last week.
This week looks a bit tougher to me...
Wisconsin @ Purdue (-2.5, 50) - I'd take Wisconsin. Neither team is very good, but I think Wisconsin is closer to being a good team than Purdue.
Northwestern @ Minnesota (+3.5, 51) - NWs offense should handle Minny. Then again, Minny has Gray back, so they could be effective vs NW's D. Gun to my head, I'd take Northwestern.
Iowa @ Michigan State (-10, 41) - Easy. Take Iowa. MSU should not be -10 on anyone right now.
Ohio @ Indiana (+17, 60) - OSU should blow them out of the water.
Illinois @ Michigan (-23.5, 49.5) - Fairly large spread, and we may turn off the gas after the 2nd quarter, but I'd take UM anyway.
October 9th, 2012 at 3:30 PM ^
Wisconsin was at home last week i believe. Indiana line is probably lower by how well they played against MSU, and how well MSU played with Ohio State. Indiana's offense will give OSU's defense fits too.
Wisconsin @ Purdue (-2.5, 50) - Wisc, Under
Northwestern @ Minnesota (+3.5, 51) - Northwestern, Over
Iowa @ Michigan State (-10, 41) - Iowa, Under
Ohio State @ Indiana (+17, 60) - Indiana, Over
Illinois @ Michigan (-23.5, 49.5) - Michigan, Over
October 9th, 2012 at 3:34 PM ^
October 9th, 2012 at 3:44 PM ^
The Battle for the best eligible team in the worst division in a bad B1G. Woo!
October 9th, 2012 at 3:44 PM ^
I would take Wisconsin only because I think their defense is probably capable of shutting down a few more drives than Purdue's might be. Neither of these teams is dressed to impress in conference play though, I woud say.
Northwestern to cover if for no other reason than their offense probably being something just a shade above Minnesota's level at the moment. Northwestern is averaging 32 points per game right now, but Minnesota is averaging 26 or so. I could see this one being relatively close for much of the game, oddly enough.
I'll take Iowa. Here you have two of the cellar-dwellers in total offense. This is a relatively close, low-scoring affair, I think.
Ohio outright. I don't think there's much that Indiana can throw out there that Ohio can't handle, although the Ohio defense, which is good for about 380 yards per game, is likely to let them slip through a few times, I bet.
Michigan by about that many. I could the score being Purdue-ish.
October 9th, 2012 at 3:50 PM ^
1. Wisconsin @ Purdue (-2.5, 50)
Take Wisco. Whichever team emerges from this debacle of a game will do so with a 1-point win on a last second FG - neither is very good.
2. Northwestern @ Minnesota (+3.5, 51)
Take Northwestern. I just still can't believe that Minnesota is anything other than what they have been - a bad football team.
3. Iowa @ Michigan State (-10, 41)
Take Iowa. State will win, but it will be close. They will be looking ahead to their super bowl next week, and Iowa will take an early lead. State overcomes it, but wins by less than 10. Also, State will run a vanilla offense to "save" things for us, which should suppress their scoring.
4. Ohio @ Indiana (+17, 60)
Take OHIO - they will win by 40. Miller looks scary good in Meyer's offense, and while OHIO's D is suspect, its not like Indiana is going to score much on them.
5. Illinois @ Michigan (-23.5, 49.5)
Take the good guys. We all know that Denard puts up video game numbers against craptastic teams (not meant as an insult to Denard at all - just a fact that his athleticism against subpar teams dominates). I expect a UMass-like game. Scoring early and often, with the second string playing the entire 4th.
October 9th, 2012 at 4:05 PM ^
October 9th, 2012 at 4:43 PM ^
until i hear Valenti's Wednesday's Watchers
October 9th, 2012 at 4:55 PM ^
Thanks a lot Mods, I had clever things to write.
October 9th, 2012 at 5:12 PM ^
There's no such thing as a guaranteed winning bet, but I suspect Iowa covers that number about 70% of the time.
October 9th, 2012 at 5:23 PM ^
Indiana spread seems about right. Ohio is at times a run first team, while the rest of the time they're a run only team. Indiana is a pass first to pass only team. In Indiana it could be a minor shootout.
Agree Northwestern easily clears the spread.
Michigan should easily beat the spread, too. Illinois lost by 31 at ASU, 28 at home to Louisiana Tech, 28 at home to Penn State, and 17 at Wisconsin. Michigan just won at Purdue by 31, we should win at home by roughly ALL the points.
Iowa is bipolar, and Sparty is schizophrenic. I have no idea which version of those teams be playing next Saturday.
October 9th, 2012 at 6:45 PM ^
I feel like this is an easy cover by Michigan, as they will put up somewhere in the ballpark of 38-45 points will Illinois chipping in 10-17 (garbage time touchdowns of course)
October 9th, 2012 at 6:56 PM ^
October 9th, 2012 at 7:50 PM ^
October 9th, 2012 at 8:25 PM ^
October 9th, 2012 at 9:41 PM ^
October 9th, 2012 at 9:42 PM ^
October 10th, 2012 at 12:05 AM ^
The MSU/IOWA line is just bizaare. 10 points? There is a good chance that neither team even scores 10 points. And the over/under at 41? Are they serious? What are the legalities of online gambling? There is easy money to be made there.
October 10th, 2012 at 12:57 PM ^
up by their dumpster fire of a first half last week was State actually finding a pretty nice groove in the second half. Burbridge separated himself as easily their best receiver as a freshman, and the lack of Sims forced Maxwell into some throws he would not have thrown if his safety valve was still in there. I think Maxwell go some confidence last week. I think State will spread it out quite a bit more this week and dispose of Iowa relatively easily. I think State will be primed for their trip to the Big House and that it is going to be a knock down drag out game. Can't wait.
October 10th, 2012 at 1:25 PM ^
I dont want to harsh your buzz but Indiana gives up 444yds and 28 points/game.
Short of curing cancer, there isn't much that state's offense could have done to Indiana that hadn't already been done by various assorted cupcakes.
October 10th, 2012 at 1:42 PM ^
they did it against a quality opponent, but sometimes it does not need to be. Sometimes a lay up can get a shooter going. Unlike the common sentiment, I don't think State is bad this year. I think that some of the posts above saying it is possible or likely that they are going to have a losing season and miss a bowl game are ridiculous. i am not saying they are all of the sudden going to be the best show on turf but I think their offense will improve and not to expect some kind of cake walk.
October 10th, 2012 at 1:51 PM ^
Their defense is probably the best in the big ten. But their offense is one of the worst. Whether that defense is very good(for the big ten) or dominant(in the big ten) will probably tell the story of their season. You couldn't pay me to watch them play Iowa though. Punting records will be set.
October 9th, 2012 at 11:12 PM ^
Purdue is a major pretender this season, haven't bought the hype at all. Wisconsin will win the game straight up.
Northwestern will take care of business against Minnesota and cover too.
MSU will get back to form, win and cover the 10.
Ohio will win and cover. This is still Indiana.
Michigan: win (obvs), but I see Illinois covering the spread in this one. Something like 38-17.
October 9th, 2012 at 11:49 PM ^
Wisconsin Purdue: I like Purdue by 6. Purdue has an average defense and a good(yards) to very good(scoring) offense. Wisconsin has a good defense and a terrible(yardage) to average(scoring) offense. Fun fact: Wisconsin gives up an average of 9 more yards than it gains. I kid you not.
NW Minnesota: I like Northwestern by 2...maybe more. Its tough to get a handle on how bad Minnesota is. They haven't played anyone. Northwestern has an average defense and a good offense. Minnesota has a goodish defense and an averageish offense. Ish because their stats are skewed by not playing anyone.
Iowa MSU: I like MSU by 2. Iowa has a very good(scoring) to good(yardage) defense and a terrible(scoring) to average(yardage) offense. MSU has a very good defense and a terrible(scoring) to surprisingly average(yardage) offense. This is the hardest game to pick a winner...but if you are getting 10!?! points, take em and run.
Ohio Indiana: I like Ohio by 13. Ohio has a good(scoring) to average(yardage) defense. They're giving up 387 yards a game, but somehow they are keeping teams off the scoreboard. OSU's offense is likewise very good(scoring) to good(yardage). They must have really good special teams or something. Indiana has a terrible defense and a good(scoring) to very good(yardage) offense. Fun fact: Indiana's defense is worst in the conference, giving up an average of 444 yards per contest.
Illinois Michigan: I like Michigan by 18. Illinois has a terrible(scoring) to average(yardage) defense and a terrible offense. Michigan has a good offense and a good(scoring) to very good(yardage) defense. Fun fact: little brother actually has the best yardage defense in the big ten by a good margin. Michigan' defense comes in at #2.