QB Bet
I just had lunch with a guy I know who is an MSU fan. He was babbling on about how bad our QBs are going to be this year. So, I bet him that our QBs would have more total yards (he even clarified it as rushing&passing) this coming year than MSUs QBs.
I just got back and looked at statistics from last year. Passing we had 1718 yards and rushing we had 293 (not counting Feagin) for a total of 2011 yards.
MSU had 2773 passing yards, -55 rushing yards, and 2718 total yards. Thats about 700 more yards than our QBs last year.
My question is, do you think I will end up winning this bet? I think that having a QB that can run the read-option properly, throw accurate passes, and scramble out of a collapsing pocket to gain yards instead of lose them will more than make up those 700 yards. What do you guys think?
August 21st, 2009 at 1:58 PM ^
No, I think you'll lose, but it really depends on if (1) MSU finds a suitable replacement for Ringer, and (2) how successful UM is running the ball. My hope is that (1) they won't and (2) they will be very successful, which would put your bet in doubt.
August 21st, 2009 at 2:00 PM ^
Who knows, but I wouldn't be surprised either way. If Tate can come through with his great accuracy, I think our YAC should be able to help out a lot... even short passes have the chance to go for big yardage when a shifty slot ninja catches the ball.
August 21st, 2009 at 2:06 PM ^
Not sure how whether or not you will win this bet, but you stand a good shot.
Does your friend realize that Forcier and D-Rob were as highly rated recruits as Nichol and Cousins and really dont have that much less experience.
Of course, if they're like any of the msu folks I know, they think UM's ceiling is 3-9 every year.
Suckers.
August 21st, 2009 at 3:32 PM ^
Cousins was not highly rated. He was a 2 star.
August 21st, 2009 at 2:14 PM ^
From what I hear Nichol hasn't proven himself vastly superior to Cousins. And Cousins couldn't beat out Hoyer last year. And Hoyer wasn't very good last year unless you asked him to hand off to the real offense - Jason Ringer.
So, I don't think that they're QBs by themselves will be very good. I'm sure that Cousins has improved but he's still probably not better than a guy that had two years of experience under his belt. And since Nichol can't toast that guy, Nichol must not be doing so well either.
State does have nearly all of their receivers coming back though so that'll help. I'm not exactly sure how good they are but I don't think that there are any future first round picks there. That said, they should be solid. But, even the best receivers can look pretty bad if their QB can't accurately throw very far as may be the case for MSU.
We also know that MSU's QBs won't be doing a lot of designed QB runs. On Rivals Cousins is listed as running 4.80s 40. He's not fast (for reference, Rivals said Tate ran a 4.55s 40). Nichol is listed as running a 4.68s 40 and is listed as a dual threat QB rather than a pro-style like Cousins.
If Cousins wins the starting job, he'll be passing and handing off. If Nichol wins he'll be passing and handing off ans scrambling a little bit better.
The point of all of that is to say that I don't think MSU's QBs will have a lot of rushing yards. They may have a fair amount of passing yards but consider that MSU's game focuses on having their RB run the ball. They'll probably throw more often than last year though since Ringer is gone. But they're still going to focus on pounding the rock.
U of M also has a good list of returning WRs and a lot of new ones too. Our QBs should also be able to get quite a few yards rushing compared to MSU. That's especially true if Denard can get in there and break a big run just once or twice in the season.
It's hard for me to judge how our passing game will be compared to theirs but it should be close or better (they have more experienced receivers whereas ours should be more talented). I think that we'll probably be slightly ahead there too since the bubble screen and other such plays are a big part of our offense. As long as we can get some good blocks, those plays will actually GAIN yards as compared to last year where they lost (or where we lateraled it because we just didn't like having the ball).
Our offense is going to be run heavy this year too, just like MSU. That will help mitigate our youth at receiver and the fact that we'll be starting a true freshman or two.
Putting all of that together, yeah, I think our QBs will rack up more yards than MSU's QBs. Remember, we were better than a 3-9 team last year and MSU wasn't really a 9-4 team. At least in my mind that's true.
August 21st, 2009 at 2:19 PM ^
I wish I could find an MSU fan to have that bet with. Frankly I think your chances are pretty damn good.
August 21st, 2009 at 2:23 PM ^
I don't care for your chances for one simple reason. Without Ringer in the backfield, I think were going to see the sparties throwing it a bit more this season.
August 21st, 2009 at 2:30 PM ^
I really have no idea if you will win that bet. At the very least, Michigan should make a bowl and have an additional game to count towards the total.
1997 -- 3088 total yds (pass/rush)
Shaun King
1998 -- 4128
Shaun King
1999 -- 3597
Woody Dantzler, Brandon Streeter
2000 -- 3637
Woody Dantzler, Willie Simmons
2001 -- 1917
Brad Lewis, Rasheed Marshall
2002 -- 2282
Rasheed Marshall
2003 -- 2404
Rasheed Marshall, Charles Hales
2004 -- 2747
Rasheed Marshall
2005 -- 2482
Pat White, Adam Bednarik
2006 -- 3558
Pat White, Jarrett Brown
2007 -- 3727
Pat White, Jarrett Brown
2008 -- 2011
Steven Threet, Nick Sheridan
August 21st, 2009 at 2:41 PM ^
Let me help you out and make this a little bit more readable...
Just tell me if I made a typo anywhere.
| Year | QB 1 | QB 2 | Total yards |
| 1997 | Shaun King | N/A | 3088 |
| 1998 | Shaun King | N/A | 4128 |
| 1999 | Woody Dantzler | Brandon Streeter | 3597 |
| 2000 | Woody Dantzler | Willie Simmons | 3637 |
| 2001 | Brad Lewis | Rasheed Marshall | 1917 |
| 2002 | Rasheed Marshall | N/A | 2282 |
| 2003 | Rasheed Marshall | Charles Hales | 2404 |
| 2004 | Rasheed Marshall | N/A | 2747 |
| 2005 | Pat White | Adam Bednarik | 2482 |
| 2006 | Pat White | Jarrett Brown | 3558 |
| 2007 | Pat White | Jarrett Brown | 3727 |
| 2008 | Steven Threet | Nick Sheridan | 2011 |
August 21st, 2009 at 2:34 PM ^
how much MSU's quarterbacks plan on rushing the ball. If they don't run 5-10 times a game, I think you're going to win that bet.
August 21st, 2009 at 2:40 PM ^
I think you'll win the bet. They had the advantage by 700 yards, right? Per game, that's about 55 yards (quick mental math).
So the question is (assuming MSU's production stays the same), are Forcier and Robinson capable of producing, on average, 55 yards more than Sheridan and Threet? I think the answer is yes.
August 21st, 2009 at 2:53 PM ^
I might have made the same bet
August 21st, 2009 at 2:53 PM ^
I like your chances on that bet. I think State's offense is going to have some issues moving the ball this year without Ringer. Our offense should be improved so I think we can make up about 700 more yards.
August 21st, 2009 at 3:15 PM ^
i like your chances. what did you bet?
August 21st, 2009 at 6:02 PM ^
Loser buys lunch at the place we were at today.
August 21st, 2009 at 3:42 PM ^
denard may have a lot of designed runs, plays that msu will give to their RB. that should help you.
August 21st, 2009 at 3:58 PM ^
I'm not sure if Sheridan can beat the state tandem, even with the help from the freshmen.
August 21st, 2009 at 4:37 PM ^
Uncertainties exist for both sides of the bet but I like your chances. Michigan's strong running game should really boost it's passer efficiency regardless of the fact that both Qbs are Frosh. This should be a fun bet for you this season, good luck.
August 22nd, 2009 at 12:05 AM ^
In my mind you are not quite holding rockets but at least K, Q suited! You have a better than average chance at this one. Especially after MSU loses to ND and Michigan and implodes the rest of the year in pure frustration. (I am hopeful not really a prediction)
August 22nd, 2009 at 10:26 AM ^
The two best points are that UM should make a bowl game (how much of the 2700 came in their bowl game?) and, as a counterpoint, how much more rushing yardage will UM's running backs get?
The 55 YPG difference is enticing. The YAC should increase a great deal--we will NOT have 40% of our plays go for 0 yards or less this year.
Our QB's will be running more, and avoiding sacks. If Cousins is not mobile or fast, he'll get sacked--taking yards away. One thing about Cousins, though: In his limited action, he is a ridiculous 32 of 43 or soemthing close, so he has shown he is accurate as well. And MSU's receivers did have a bit of the "droppsies" last year, so if they improve there, could help your Sparty friend.
This is going to be very interesting, because I believe you do NOT replace Javon Ringer very easily, so they will have to pass more. I don't believe in running back by committee--but they will have no one who can run the ball 35 times a game and live to tell about it this year.
August 25th, 2009 at 11:55 AM ^
I think you'll win easily.