argh make a shot

1 hour and 51 minutes

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1. TCU: Offense

starts at 1:00

Michigan overly punished for mistakes, which drowns out the game: there were four events in this game worth more than a TD and they all happened to Michigan. Like 2010 Illinois but with stakes. Most unforgiveable thing was not making JJ's legs part of the offense. TCU's approach was so aggressive Michigan couldn't comprehend it, since they didn't back off after Michigan burned them with it. JJ had a great game except for his two worst throws of his career. TCU DE/DTs held up well, can't be too mad since they surged the 2nd half and should have scored 60 points (in 18 drives). OL got turned around—some of the running game explosives were there but had mistakes. Why would you play into their hands with inside zone?

[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]

With under two minutes left Hunter Dickinson took the pass on the block, saw yet another double coming, and passed it out to an open Kobe Bufkin, who swung it to a wide open Terrance Williams II. Had Michigan made 5/16 threes (31%) at that point, Williams was taking a dagger. Had they made 4/16 (25%), they'd have been leading. If Michigan was 3/16 (19%) on their open three-pointers in that moment it'd have been a two-point game.

Unfortunately, of the soon-to-be 17 open triple attempts by Michigan in the game's first 38 minutes, only two had found the bottom of the net.

Shot luck was the story of a sinfully ugly basketball game at Breslin, which was especially ugly in the first half. Michigan was at least getting their looks from the start. Dickinson's first two opportunities on the block became a pair of open elbows from overplayed moves towards the rim. Jett also took two open pull-up threes after kickouts unbalanced the defense. In both cases the first went in and the second did not. MSU came out trying to push the pace at the start of drives, which got them an open pull-up three by Tyson Walker. AJ Hoggard also found Mady Sissoko alone under the basket when Dickinson came up to flash off a screen, but Sissoko traveled. The teams went into the first break 5-3. It was a preview of things to come.

Out of the break, both of Michigan's freshmen had rude introductions to the Breslin Effect. Dug McDaniel airballed his first (and only) three-point attempt, then he and MSU's Tyson Walker picked up Class A technicals from referee Paul Szelc when they traded barbs after shot clock violation, which sent Tom Izzo into a screaming fit. The outburst seemed to have its intended effect. Jett Howard was tagged with his first foul away from the ball on MSU's next possession. Walker was lucky not to get his second for shoving McDaniel to the floor. Dug was not so lucky as he got himself into trouble trying to drive baseline on Walker and picked up a questionable charging call while trying to avoid going out of bounds. A similar thing happened to Jett Howard, who got tripped coming around a screen (no call), got up angry, and ran over a set Spartan for his own second foul. Michigan went into the under-8 timeout with both freshmen benched with two fouls and the score knotted at 12.

It's okay kid, everyone gets Szelced at least once in this league. [Campredon]

Without their last point guard, one of the best teams in the nation at avoiding turnovers suddenly began coughing up the ball. Joey Baker also missed three wide open triples, part of a 1/9 half for Michigan from outside the arc, none of them challenged. Michigan State used the opportunity to go on a 10-2 run, all of those points generated by Malik Hall off ball screens. With a minute left in the half the teams traded 1&1 opportunities off hand checks. Isaiah Barnes hit both of his then thunder-blocked Walker's drive with time running out.

The half could have ended there, but Jace Howard tried to check Hall away from the useless rebound opportunity that was rolling out of bounds. The foul was called, and Hall sank both free throws to give MSU a 27-18 lead going into the break.

Out of the half, Michigan State started getting junk to fall. Howard called timeout after MSU got a quick 5 points off a Hoggard pop three and a Joey Hauser open jumper off a screen. The plan out of the timeout was to get the ball to Dickinson down low, but whenever Dickinson passed out of a double the ensuing three would clang. That was if it was even attempted, as first Williams, then McDaniel, Bufkin and even Baker passed up open looks to drive into worse ones.

Dickinson also got switched onto Walker and taken to the basket. Walker's shot hit every molecule of the rim before rolling in, and MSU's lead stretched 13 at the Under 16 timeout.

This didn't go in either. [Campredon]

It was also one of the last good looks the Spartans had all half, as Michigan's inspired defense kept them in a game their atrocious shooting should have precluded them from competing in. Once again Michigan had a good play coming out of a break, with Dickinson finding Jett for the Wolverines' second made three of the night. Tarris Reed entered after that, and quickly drew four fouls on MSU bigs, three of those on the floor while driving on Sissoko. Jett found a lane through multiple defenders to cut the lead to ten, but Hoggard, who finished 6/10 from the floor and 1/1 on 3PAs, pulled up for an answer. Michigan couldn't score on a pair of possessions extended by fouls and rebounds, and Hoggard picked up a weird bounce that his center Carson Cooper had bobbled away and put in another long two to push the Spartans' lead to 42-28.

But for the shooting (other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?), the next 10 minutes were some of Michigan's most inspired of the season. Drives through traffic by Kobe Bufkin and Will Tschetter(!) chopped the lead to ten on either side of an underhanded prayer between three defenders that fell for Walker. Then Cooper, on the court for Sissoko, found himself between a driving Hunter Dickinson and the basket, and flopped, drawing a technical. Dickinson scored, and after a TV timeout Bufkin made the technical free throw. Sissoko returned, quickly committed his 4th foul on offense, and Dickinson canned a 15-footer off a pick and roll to cut MSU's lead to 7 with six minutes remaining.

Bufkin remains the season's most encouraging development. [Campredon]

Luck ran both ways for a few minutes. Tyson Walker took a stepback three that clanged short but then popped up and rolled in, and Kobe Bufkin's quick answering attempt rimmed out. But Tschetter dove for the rebound amidst several Spartan defenders, and clearly touched it last, but the officials awarded Michigan possession. MSU then left Tschetter open off a pick and roll, but his triple attempt missed as well.

Baskets at the rim by Dickinson and Bufkin trimmed the deficit to six and Izzo called timeout. Michigan got yet another stop, and Jett was fouled while driving, hitting both sides of a one-and-one. Four points.

MSU would answer, however, and Cooper fouled Dickinson on the other end. Dickinson made 1/2 to put it at 49-44 MSU.

One trip later, Dug McDaniel found Hunter Dickinson low, who drew a double, and found and open Bufkin who swung it to a more open Williams. If a Michigan jumper was ever going to go in, it had to be this one. It wasn't close.

Michigan State rebounded Williams's rushed attempt, and made all of their free throws in clock time, including two front ends in the bonus. Michigan finished 3/20 from the arc and 7/39 (18%) total on field goals away from the rim. Dickinson (a pick and roll three) and Bufkin (an uncontested dunk) scored late to keep the pressure on. Dickinson's final attempt found only air, Joey Baker fruitlessly fought for the rebound on the baseline, and Michigan State celebrated a 57-53 victory.

Except the officials wouldn't let them leave. After a lengthy review, they assessed Baker a foul and awarded MSU two superfluous free throws with 0.1 seconds remaining. Gamblers holding MSU-4.5 must have blown their gaskets as Jaden Akins made two free throws to push the final margin out to six.

Whatever you ascribe to shots falling, that was the game. Walker got a pair to prevent Michigan's big run from tying the score. Michigan got the more open looks and shot 19/55 from the floor. MSU's Joey Hauser (3/13) got a few good looks he missed as well. Normally troubled shooter AJ Hoggard couldn't miss on his pullups, and that was enough to overcome an encouragingly wide distance in play. That is, other than the actual making of shots, Mrs. Lincoln. You kinda have to make your shots.

[A box score and more photos after THE JUMP]

I'm drained and disappointed. I imagine anyone reading this is, too.

In a slow, ugly game, Michigan missed chance after chance to push past UCLA and into the Final Four. After trailing for most of the second half, the Wolverines twice took the lead, the final time on a Hunter Dickinson free throw with 4:30 to play. They'd stay within a possession for the rest of the game.

They wouldn't make another shot from the field, missing their last eight and getting only a pair of Franz Wagner free throws. Wagner had the cleanest look at a potential game-winner only to airball a wide-open three-pointer following a Michigan timeout with 19.8 seconds left. Eli Brooks tried to put back the miss on the fly with a reverse layup and left it short.

UCLA's Johnny Juzang split a pair of bonus free throws with six seconds left to give Michigan another crack. Smith pulled up and had the space for a good look from beyond the arc but missed the mark. Yet the Wolverines still clung to life when UCLA knocked the ensuing rebound out of bounds with what the officials determined was 0.5 seconds remaining, enough time to catch and fire. Wagner's desperation three at the buzzer never came close.

Michigan is a better team than UCLA, even without Isaiah Livers. Juzang had to be spectacular, pouring in a game-high 28 points—more than a quarter of the game's total—on 11-for-19 field goals with a high degree of difficulty. Michigan got no such performance out of their main players. Hunter Dickinson led the team with only 11 points, and while he made 5/10 shots from the field, he went 1/4 from the free throw line and committed four turnovers. Wagner shot 1/10 in arguably his worst game of the year; the only other candidate is the ugly loss to Illinois. Smith finished 1/7 and didn't record a second-half assist.

UCLA's secondary scoring paled in comparison to that of Michigan, which got quality contributions out of Brandon Johns, Chaundee Brown, and Austin Davis. Juzang's game-long heater and the immense struggles of his opponents' headliners negated that advantage. It's a game of making shots; UCLA's top bucket-getter played at his best while M's sat on the bench in a walking boot. It can be a cruel game.

Johnny Juzang, walking bucket [Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images]

In the light of day, it'll be time to celebrate the accomplishments of a team that was picked to finish seventh in the Big Ten before the season, won the conference, earned a one seed, and came within one shot (or several one shots) of a Final Four in Juwan Howard's first NCAA Tournament as a head coach. This season was an unequivocal success.

Tonight, it's tough to get over the missed shots against a beatable opponent. I was prepared to see Michigan not have enough firepower to keep up with Gonzaga; seeing that come to pass against a UCLA team that had two players score more than four points is more difficult to accept in the immediate aftermath, even if that's the nature of a game that's already produced a wild tournament.

The excitement of a top-ranked incoming recruiting class will be of considerable comfort, too. Howard is just beginning his head coaching career. The program is in as good a place as its ever been. If any program knows there are only so many clean shots at Final Fours and national championships, though, it's Michigan, and it's sad to see this team come so close to adding more banners only for a terrible shooting night to do them in.

[Hit THE JUMP for the box score.]