Previously: Western Michigan, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan, San Diego State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan State, Purdue

Iowa

Schedule:

• Tennessee Tech, 34-7 (W)
• @ Iowa State, 41-44 OT (L)
• Pittsburgh, 31-27 (W)
• Louisiana-Monroe, 45-17 (W)
• @ Penn State, 3-13 (L)
• Northwestern, 41-31 (W)
• Indiana, 45-24 (W)
• @ Minnesota, 21-22 (L)
• No. 15 Michigan, 24-16 (W)
• No. 17 Michigan State, 21-37 (L)
• @ Purdue, 31-21 (W)
• @ No. 21 Nebraska, 7-20 (L)
• No. 14 Oklahoma, 14-31 (L) Insight Bowl

Record: 7-6 overall, 4-4 B1G, 4^th place Bo Division

Stats:

Recap: If one word could describe Iowa’s 2011 campaign, that word would be “flat.” So flat that if you were to survey the terrain while driving through the state you’d be all like, “Huh, this reminds me strongly of their season,” and you’d also see the one landfill-turned-ski slope off the freeway, and it would be named “Michigan.”

Sorry. I’m a metaphors kind of guy.

This is a metaphor.

(more metaphors after the jump)

I said I would write a final opponent watch to recap the season. This is not it. I'll have that one next week.

About Last Saturday:

Bad guys - 0, Good guys - a billion

HELLO.

(more after the jump)

(Wait. Which one is Michigan playing again?)

About Last Weekend:

No. 16 Nebraska 17, No. 18 Michigan 45 (W)

"Guess why I smile a lot."

"Why?"

"Uh, 'cause it's worth it."

The Road Ahead:

Ohio State (6-5, 3-4 B1G)

Getty / via the Huffington Post

Previously:

• Akron, 42-0 (W)
• Toledo, 27-22 (W)
• @ Miami, 24-6 (L)
• Colorado, 37-17 (W)
• Michigan State, 10-7 (L)
• @ No. 14 Nebraska, 34-27 (L)
• @ No. 16 Illinois, 17-7 (W)
• No. 15 Wisconsin, 33-29 (W)
• Indiana, 34-20
• @ Purdue 26-23 OT (LOL)

Last game: No. 21 Penn State 20, Ohio State 14 (L)

Recap: Recap. Have to do a recap. Last recap. Gotta finish by the end of Tuesday. Tuesday's over. Damn. Gotta finish by Wednesday. One-day-late Championship recap. Okay.

... Ohio State fell into a hole early. Penn State RB Stephfon Green took a run up the middle, evaded some tackles, and sprinted 39 yards for a touchdown. 7-0 Nittany Lions.

The ensuing Buckeyes drive stalled because Ohio State C Mike Brewster snapped the ball into his ass while QB Braxton Miller was in shotgun formation. (I think this is when this particular bad snap happened. Bad snaps happened many times throughout this game. I think Brewster ended up blaming it on his gloves.)

Penn State drove and got a field goal, miring the Buckeyes in their third 10-0 deficit in as many weeks.

Ohio State wasn’t dead, though. Not yet. Miller ran the option to good effect and scored on a 24-yard keeper; most of the Buckeyes’ large chunks on the ground came from his option keepers, which is to say he kept the ball every time. He and Denard are both members of the “never pitch” movement.

That’s not anything relevant, but I google imaged “option keeper” and it’s what I got.

Also, WR DeVier Posey returned from suspension. He didn’t make a huge impact (4 catches, 66 yards), but he was pretty much the entire passing offense, and he did do this.

All of this game’s points were scored in the first half before the allure of B1G football got the better of both teams. Penn State scored another touchdown and field goal in the first half but failed to convert on a redzone opportunity in the second half when Ohio State turned the ball over on a fumble.

On that possession, the Buckeyes defense mounted an impressive goal-line stand to keep the Nittany Lions out of the end zone.

The second Buckeye touchdown came in the second quarter when Braxton Miller found TE Jake Stoneburner on a deep crossing route in the end zone. It was an impressive throw. Something tells me that he might eventually be pretty good when he’s given a real offense to work with.

You probably know the rest. Ohio State drove ferociously for a Hail Mary opportunity in the final minutes, but the first fourth-down conversion fell short when a Miller scramble, set back by a false-start penalty, fell short of the first down marker. The second attempt after a quick Penn State three-and-out fell incomplete because Penn State actually knows how to cover receivers. Unlike you, Wisconsin. For shame.

Right now they are as frightening as: Voldemort down to his last Horcrux.

Michigan should worry about: When you look at Miller’s highlight reel, the thing that stands out is that he scrambles effectively to buy time for his receivers to get open. He keeps his eyes downfield, and his instincts are usually good when it comes to finally tucking and running. A lot of his game-winning or almost-game-winning touchdowns came when he danced around in the backfield for some length before finding his target.

To get to him, Michigan’s secondary will need to stay on receivers for a lot longer than they’re used to, and D-line discpline will be essential. If he’s able to break through the containment, Miller will make plays.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The Nittany Lions rushed for 239 yards on not that many carries. Their running backs consistently found enormous holes in the Buckeyes defensive line and frequently had to be tracked down from behind by linebackers. It looked like Ohio State’s defensive line was caught in pass rush mode at the wrong times -- the ends were way overcommitted, allowing the backs to run right by them.

Next game: No. 15 That School Up North 

(more after the jump)

M Glee clubbers Mary Wilhel, Justin Lu, and Brandon Cory infiltrate enemy territory.

I'd never heard this before (mp3 link). It's from the the old Dick Purtan show in the 1980s, though one commenter thinks it's older. (Thank JeremyB for turning this up). However when I was in college we too stood on our porches singing such classics as "Bye Wisconsin", "Blow Right Through Ol' MSU", and "One More Loss for 'Ol Notre Dame." Nowadays the campus nerds troll our rivals by spreading the Might and Main in person:

Here we come with our dorks singing, And our helmets blue and winging…

Kids these days (are awesome). Also awesome: Denard Robinson under 4 mins in the 4th quarter (usually). Nonnair shows:

Adding the two charts together, in his five opportunities to pull off a Tom Brady-style comeback at the end of a game, Denard is 15/27 for 305 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT -- good for an NCAA passer rating of 167.5.

…but doesn't compare that to other CFB quarterbacks. He also called Borges "Uncle Fester." Needs more study.

The Sandusky stuff dominated the boards this week so badly that Ohio State finally getting their long-deserved Failure to Monitor barely registered. In the diaries, we got a good take from PA native Six Zero's front-paged article on how this could affect Penn State traditions, and, uh, JoePa as…Stalin? The point is about loyalty, whether to a friend or organization, and a cult of personality trumping morality. No-sign. I think people knew Josef was a bad guy, whereas Joe Paterno keeping one (very) dark skeleton carries way more disillusionment; his appearance of morality was not just about Penn State because the rest of us used it too to say the Big Ten is better or debate the notion of "all programs" with sentences that begin with "teams like Michigan and Penn State…" To have that guy turn out to harboring a total sicko is just weird.

Well you know what they say, when the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. It's finally time that jhackney's romp through HST novels would reach its F&L in Las Vegas crescendo. Your Diary of the Week visits sordid Iowa City in search of the American Dream, but ends up with a history of pedophiles in State College, Pa.

Your weekly game wrap with BlueSeoul finds our intrepid screen capturer blaming refs. Rly?Yes, the last play (------>) should have been PI but unbalanced officiating was small potatoes in the game outcome next to Iowa playing great football and Michigan not. I'm your biggest fan, Seoul, but this week I disagree with more than I don't in there.

Danger Chris of Logidanger went all out this week in moving picture pages. There's highlights now and keys and…show? Show:

In etc., Blazefire doesn't think the scandals across the country are enough to discount the season. After the break we do the weeklies and the Best of a fisky Board.

Formation notes: A lot more under center in this game. I've got Michigan with 9 snaps in an ace formation, four in Denard jet, and 14 in I-Form. Michigan had 26 shotgun snaps in hurry-up time and 22 outside of it.

Of Michigan's 49 snaps in their base offense, 22 were from the shotgun, a 45% rate. Big dropoff from before the bye week.

I called this "ace tight":

And this is still "shotgun trips bunch" but note that those are tight ends tight to the strong side, not WRs:

Substitution notes: Nothing you don't know. Hopkins is pretty much the only FB now, Schofield went the whole way, Toussaint and Smith were the only backs, and the WR/TE rotation was basically how it's been all year. Odoms and Grady may have gotten a little more time late for whatever reason.

Show? Show.

asdf

Denard Robinson is a terrible thrower who can't throw anything.

Look, man, I'm just like… I chart—

Chart.

—these things and this is what I got:

[Hover over column headers for explanation of abbreviation. Screens are in parens.]

Gardner had a CA on a screen, an IN, and three TAs, for a DSR of 0.0%.

I got Denard's best performance of the year against a D-I opponent. The things that happened to him that were bad were many dropped passes, Roundtree misjudging a perfectly-thrown deep ball, and plenty of batted passes.

Yeah, I said it, perfectly thrown deep ball:

Roundtree slowed up a moment before this still. If he runs through the ball this is a touchdown the DB can't do anything about. Arggggh.

What's more, I have all seven of Denard's INs and his BR in hurry-up time; most of those were the Rex Grossman deep balls it seemed like he was instructed to throw on first down just in case something worked out. All were way off but historically I've mentioned deep ball INs as less egregious because… like… they are. His BR was an OOB chuck to Roundtree when he had a shorter guy open for a chunk—there was no "WHAT ARE YOU THINKING" throw this week. If his WRs had helped him out we are talking about a different game.

There is a massive caveat: Iowa did not rush the passer. I don't mean they rushed four and didn't get there. I mean that unless Iowa was deploying one of their infrequent blitzes, they literally made no attempt to sack Denard.

That's second and fifteen with less than two minutes left and nobody is even trying. Instead they are containing. This was a near constant throughout the day. It explains many things:

• why Denard did not even look like scrambling once (not that he does much anyway)
• why an unusual number of passes got batted down
• why Denard's DSR is much better

It seems like an incredibly dumb strategy but I guess it worked. Robinson did not handle the pressure well on the last series—third down was good, first and second not—and against opponents that get after you more I expect his passing to revert back to the previous not so good form.

The receivers were bleah, you say?

I say.

[Passes are rated like so: 0 = uncatchable, 1 = very difficult, 2 = moderately difficult, 3 = routine.]

Three flat drops and two coulda-had-thems. Both of the latter were critical. The first was the Roundtree misjudge you see above, the second Smith's endzone drop of a low floater. One of Hemingway's routine drops ended a drive. It wasn't an all-time bad performance but it could have been better, especially when you consider some of the seemingly crappy routes Michigan ran. I have no way to quantify that, but trust me.

And the run game?

This is an ugly chart.

That is Molk, Hopkins, Schofield, and disappointment. Denard is not immune to criticism here. It was on the ground more than in the air that his decision making was problematic. Cut it up, dude:

Glarg. I wonder if the change in emphasis here has made Denard rusty on his zone cuts. Once that guy comes up it's straight upfield until they tackle you.

Meanwhile, Iowa's ends won the day against the tackles—Huyge in particular could not handle Binns, or the cut block on the above play—and the receivers were crappy when called upon. Like on that play, where Grady turns a big gain into zilch. Y U NO ODOMS. Seriously: why he no Odoms? Where did Odoms go?

We can has fullback?

Maybe. Stephen Hopkins was a bright spot. He has nimble feet, especially for a fullback, and brings a load when he meets linebackers at the POA.

That's pretty good right there. Dude is hammering full speed at the LOS and gets turned out. Later he pancaked the same dude.

He's quickly supplanted McColgan and should be a useful piece the next couple years. If he can stop fumbling he could let Michigan add a triple option to their repertoire. 

Why haven't you complained about a bubble yet?

Oh mah gawd, good point. It's not really about the bubble, it's about preventing stuff like this from happening:

Not the 22 yard run part. The part where it takes two guys miraculously falling down to get the 22 yard run. Not bubbling this…

Is pretty much asking for vicious frontside flow because ain't nobody worried about the cutback with the slot LB coming down. This is the wider view from a little earlier:

That is a free first down. Take it. Take it and relieve some pressure from your run game. The only way for them to defend the bubble with that setup is to have the safety roar down at it, which opens them up to Worst Waldo counterpunches.

Can a brother get a run breakdown?

Right. I forgot last week. This week:

ACE (INC DENARD JET)

Total: 6 carries, 2.6 YPC.

I-FORM

Total: 11 carries, 3.4 YPC

SHOTGUN

Total: 15 carries, 6.3 YPC. Should be noted that the power play was fortunate, the zone read that got any yards on the last drive, and the veer that got any yards the Toussaint massive cutback. Not a whole lot went as planned.

Did you have any issues with the last drive?

We talked about this a bit earlier in the week: once you get to the three with 16 seconds left I think taking your TO and throwing is the move, at least until fourth down.

HOWEVA, there's no way it should have come to that.

Is that a freaking huddle as the ref signals the game clock with 31 seconds on the play clock? Yes.

NASCAR? MORE LIKE SLOWCAR ZING

That's Michigan snapping it seventeen seconds later. /head asplode

Two plays earlier they let fifteen seconds run off after the Roundtree conversion on second and eighteen; three plays later they let nine seconds run off after a penalty. If they chop those delays down to an average of five seconds—more than reasonable considering the last one should have been like two—Roundtree is tackled at the three with 42 seconds left, ie forever. They easily keep their time out and prevent Iowa from sending seven on four consecutive plays.

There is a slight mitigating factor on the above since I think they thought Gallon got out of bounds, so they could huddle. Once it was clear the clock was running they'd already slowed down. It's still really frustrating.

I need one more complaint for my bingo card.

Hated the playcall on Denard's fumble. M comes out in a double stack and has the foremost WRs run little out routes as M goes for a double move. Pump fake…

…to a wide open dude at the sticks…

…who is trying a double move. LB roars up; Denard escapes but fumbles as he does. He had nowhere to go with the ball.

Heroes?

Watch Vincent Smith advertise speed option to the entire state of Iowa and Molk still reach the DT:

I am going to miss that brilliant twinkle-toed media-hating bastard.

Also… uh… Hopkins? Yeah, Hopkins. And here's a change of pace: Denard's arm.

Goats?

The rest of the line not named Schofield. The receivers somewhat. Denard's legs. (I knew I put Opposite Day in the podcast for a reason.)

What does it mean for Illinois and the rest of the season?

The line has to be better against the Illinois DL or it's going to be a long day. Can they? I don't like that Huyge-Mercilus matchup at all. Without Liuget I think they'll be vulnerable on the interior—Molk reached Akeem Spence all day last year—but will Hopkins-based isos be enough? Will Michigan use Molk's super powers or not?

I don't think Denard's passing performance is replicable. Not only does Denard screw up throws when he actually gets pressure, his inability to figure out how pressured he is has caused a lot of bad throws when players are vaguely near him. The comfort zone he was in against Iowa isn't going to be replicated against an Illinois defense that gets a ton of sacks (third nationally at 3.4 per).

I don't have a lot of faith in this offense moving the ball against the #6 D in the country, on the road. Since this is Big Ten football 2011, they will score 40 points.

• 2 inside zone for 0.5 YPC
• 1 jet sweep for 3 YPC
• 1 pitch sweep for 4 YPC
• 2 power plays for 4 YPC
• 6 isos for 4.7 YPC
• 4 power plays for 2 YPC
• 1 sweep for 1 YPC
• 2 pin and pull zone for 16.5 YPC
• 1 power play for 22 YPC
• 1 QB iso for 1 yard
• 1 QB power for 2 yards
• 1 QB stretch for –1 yards
• 1 sweep for 0 YPC
• 3 inverted veers for 5 YPC
• 2 speed option for 5 YPC
• 3 inside zone reads for 4 YPC