The State Of Our Open Threads: After Iowa

Submitted by LSAClassOf2000 on November 24th, 2013 at 7:37 AM

We still have one game to play, but MGoBlog is to be commended for reaching what could very well stand as its swearing climax yesterday. Between all the tracked words / references, we beat the Penn State game by 13 instances, bringing the year-to-date total to 4,565 instances of the tracked words and making this game the second straight week we've cussed 30% more than the previous week. Indeed, we did 39.77% better than last week, carried largely by a 36.31% increase in "fuck" and a 36.47% increase in the references to firing someone. In general, rage has begun to reach a crescendo. 

The summary data:

"fuck" 2170 197.27 172.87 47.54%
"shit" 532 48.36 28.96 11.65%
"damn" 420 38.18 42.96 9.20%
"fire" 459 41.73 51.21 10.05%
"suck" 508 46.18 32.77 11.13%
"ass" 299 27.18 27.27 6.55%
"put in Morris" 177 16.09 17.47 3.88%

Some general notes - 

*The number of posters who wanted to bench Gardner in favor of Morris more than doubled from last week, bringing the MGoCalls for QB change to 177 instances. It should be noted that the reason for this seems to have shifted from actual rage and more curiosity about how Morris would perform in theory, which is rage stripped of the emotional component. 

*The relative distribution of "fuck" has held steady basically - 47.54% of overall tracked words are "fucks", but "shit" made a strong showing this week as did "suck". Indeed, there was one person on Twitter (which I don't track) who hit the trifecta and say "Shit, we fuckin' suck". If only that had been in the Open Thread. We still rely a lot on the interjection "fuck" regardless of positive or negative associations to plays in the game. 

*A big "WOW" to this statistic - we managed an instance of one of the tracked words every 1.62 posts this week, a huge jump from last week's ratio of 3.50. What it means, of course, is that in a smaller number of posts, we had pure, concentrated profanity. That is the season's biggest jump in what I will call the "Swearing Efficiency Quotient". We may not mix our words much, but we're becoming very good at utilizing them in a small space.

Here is the normalized data:

 photo SOOTNormalIowa_zps1c282cdb.png

You can see the trend in recent games here is towards full discontent with the season. Indeed, Iowa and Northwestern are now the only games where the Z-scores of each tracked word were all positive. Indeed, the average Z-score of the track words was nearly TRIPLE last week's average, so if you every wanted numerical proof of ANGAR, then you now have it. Interestingly, the Penn State game still leads for the relative concentration of "damn" and "ass", possibly because of our disbelief during and after that game. Akron and UConn still compete for the concentration of "suck", possibly due to the turnovers. Good god, the turnovers. 

Here is the bar chart with the game-to-game trend in totals:

 photo SOOTIowaBarCHart_zpsf8a62415.png

If there is a phrase which describes those last four games, it might very well be "urge to kill rising". I am pretty sure we've all felt this on a primal level watching lately.

Here is the rampant increase in "fuck" and "fire", and you can see that these two words somehow track each other on MGoBlog:

 photo SOOTIowaFuckFire_zps01fe6c50.png

I thought about posting the "Shit-Damn Dynamic", but it is basically doing the same thing as you see above, just to a lesser extent. 

Here is the Mood Chart, which graphically shows you where Iowa sits in the adjusted data. It is clearly the most concentrated expression of frustration yet this year:

 photo SOOTIowaMoodChart_zps2921f995.png



November 24th, 2013 at 7:47 AM ^

it is quite sad what our team has become under Hoke


Hoke has done no better than Rich Rod, actually worse, when you consider what the talent level was under RR in his 1st season here


We can only hope that Hoke is fired and soon. I am thinking  (as much as I hate to think it) osu will come in and put an exclamation point to their season by humiliating our program in the Big House


Once they do, I am hoping Brandon then has no choice but to fire Hoke


Go Blue!


November 24th, 2013 at 8:41 AM ^

Typical overreaction.  MSU went 7-6 last year. Ok St. 8-5.  Missouri went 5-7, didn't freak out when the crazy part of their fan base screamed for Pinkel to be fired, and it worked out pretty well.  Look at Missouri's starters.  They are all either juniors, seniors or RS sophmores except for a sohmore center and a #1 recuit at WR.

Teams have down years.  It happens.  In this situation its pretty obvious that two disasterious recruiting classes have a lot to do with it.  The offensive play calling also is a problem.  Hoke should make a change there.  But if he doesn't and things don't improve substantially next year he will be under pressure.

Before someone goes on about that awesome UCLA o-line they gave up 8 sacks and 3 holding penalties last night against a decidely average defense.  Still way better than our offense as far as total production, but some of that has to do with Hundley being an elite QB.  




November 24th, 2013 at 8:52 AM ^

Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida.  So two teams who cannot throw the ball at all and Kentucky, who is one of the worst teams in the country.  Not impressive and its a lot easier to win with a RS freshmen QB and a team full of upperclassmen than the reverese.


November 24th, 2013 at 9:07 AM ^

I wouldn't diminish those wins too much though. Are those three world beaters, not even close. But they destroyed them. And they would probably easily stack up with UConn and Akron. Overall though, I don't disagree with you. Definitely easier to win with the reverse situation.


November 24th, 2013 at 10:31 AM ^

i Agree that this program is declining so quickly, that no head coach will want to coach.this mediocre program. this is why i think DB will not have a chice but to keep hoke for couple more years. also it doesnt help that the older fan base r okay with the direction of the program,we have our michigan man, it is kind sick


November 24th, 2013 at 10:49 AM ^

Are Penn State, Nebraska, and Iowa any good though? Penn State has a freshman QB and the depth of a Petri dish. Coming in to the Michigan game Nebraska was a tire fire in its own right with a pieced together O-line, their star QB out for the season, and having (what should've been) an easy defense to move the ball against. Is that the standard you hold this program to?

We should beat these teams at least 80% of the time we play them.


November 24th, 2013 at 10:54 AM ^

The point wasn't that those teams are good.  They are decent teams who we should beat, but I wouldn't say 80% of the time.

The point was one posters complain we are 7-4 and were lucky to beat Akron, Uconn, and Indiana it implies that they could easily be 4-7.  Well if PSU, Neb, and Iowa go another way  they could be 10-1.  Neither of those scenairios, is likely.  I


November 24th, 2013 at 8:10 AM ^

as your QB?


Zero talent at the WR spot?


Hoke is inept and Borges has no words to describe how bad of an OC he is overall


Please stop blaming RR and realize that Hoke is in over his head and should never have been hired for the job


9 losses and counting over the past 2 seasons and the team has digressed over that time


We will be blown out by osu, that will make 10 losses in 2 seasons


That is Michigan football?


November 24th, 2013 at 8:26 AM ^

Whose fault is is that are senior and junior classes are a disaster?  That would be the guy who recruited them and in once class signed 1 offensive linemen.  Hoke won a BCS game.  RichRod got blown out in his only bowl game.  

Hoke's first year had Carr's last recruiting classes as upperclassmen.  He did a hell of a lot better than Richrod ever did.


November 24th, 2013 at 9:40 AM ^

We also had Denard in 2010, and went 7-6.  

I would say that fielding competent defense and special teams was the bigger difference between 2010 and '11.  That degree of improvement almost certainly wouldn't have happened without Hoke being here.  Mattison at the least would not be here without him.  





November 24th, 2013 at 10:57 AM ^

That's helped us towards an 10-2 season regular season.

If we had Minnesota and NW on the schedule in 2010 instead of Wisconsin and Penn State, you could be looking at a 9-3 regular season instead of 7-5.

Conversely, if we had PSU and Wisconsin on the schedule in 2011, it's possible that we only split those two games at best.


ND Sux

November 24th, 2013 at 10:59 AM ^

Sheridan or Threat?  Um, NO, Lloyd had the highest rated QB ever recruited to Michigan, but he transfered to Arkansas when RR came here.  His name was Ryan Mallett. 

Also, we all love Denard, but he was not a great passer by any generally accepted measure.  He had games where he was amazing, and others where he was amazingly inaccurate.  And yes, he threw a lot of pics.  Great Michigan guy, great runner, good leader, likeable as any M player in history, but not an elite QB. 

But you go ahead and remember everything whichever way makes your RR apologist argument better.  Our defense and special teams were an absolute embarrassment, and recruiting was not what I would call strong for a Michigan program.  I for one think the upside is a lot better under Hoke.


November 24th, 2013 at 8:24 AM ^

Sadly, this is the perfect lead off reply to a post titled "State of our open threads . . . ." For someone who has been around here since approx 2006 and on his way out, this fact is way more depressing than anything the team could possibly do. Really used to love this pace. Go compare the game recap comments from mlive and here. Mlive comments are much much more reasonable, which, hahaha.

ND Sux

November 24th, 2013 at 9:43 AM ^

but I am NOWHERE NEAR "Fire Hoke" yet.  IMO the only thing that's really broken is the OLine, and the depth chart is filling in with promising recruits.  If you MUST fire someone, then Funk can go. 

Hoke and Mattison are recruiting impressively and we are already seeing the fruits.  OL needs another year to develop.  I think the D is actually damn good given the offensive failures and the positions they're put in. 

Lastly, Hoke is a great fit for Michigan.  All the young guys coming in recognize this...too bad some of the so-called M supporters don't.  I'm willing to give him TWO more years, if necessary. 

Lastly, a big EFF YOU to all the fans who wanted Carr gone.  All the guy did was win one NC, a B1G title almost every other year, and keep the program clean and respectable.  Be careful what you wish for. 

I dumped the Dope

November 24th, 2013 at 8:33 AM ^

Its been a bad season, no doubt.  We can almost zoom out to that level.

When bad things happen, I always ask myself, did you at very minimum learn something?

(to help pave the road for future successes)

I still say this is our first year in the shadow of Denard Robinson.  He commanded respect from every defense we played (until the point he was injured and couldn't throw, and it screamed "run" when he went on the field).

I had this thought about a pre-season private conversation which fits sort of with this season's result. 

Brady:  I've got a group of young OL.  They are talented in terms of their eventual upside.  They will get better via game trials by fire, but the first season's going to be rough, and its going to be obvious.

Dave: But Brady, I've got millions invested in the UTL2 game.  I've got planes, Beyonce tape, Mark Harmon, and skywriting and I even landed GameDay, dude!  We gotta win that one so my ego's not bruised after all this investment!  Pull out all the stops to win that one, after that you can do what you need to do and I'll be OK with it.

Brady:  OK boss, got it.  I'll play my most experienced OL guys.  Even though they are going to get run over by ND's front, at least they can slow their guys down, giving ground but not be whiffing.


Conspiracy theorist I may be, but that sort of fits with why we saw one set of OL for the first three games.  And its been a troupe of young guys ever since.  Miller being the swingman.  He played the entire time up thru ND and hasn't seen the field since.  I think he had the experience and good technique to slow down Nix but gave up ground consistently.

College football has become like the stock market during the Bubble Economy of the early 2000s.  18% improvement?  Meh, we expect that every quarter you idiot CEOs.  Otherwise your stock will be punished and your golden quillions of generous options reduced to a smoking pile of paper.  But that sort of thinking resulted in a crash, much worse than incremental but visible improvement year over year with some plateau expected.

So we are going to get what we absolutely need.  A LOT of practice.  After next week its all practice until the spring game, save for one bowl trip.  Those months in my mind are just as valuable than all the 13-15 weeks of the season.

I don't worry until the body of recruiting falls off, due to it not being a place that players want to come play.  When the farmland of East Lansing looks more inviting than the vibe of Ann Arbor, I will be worried.  If next season's body of work were to be worse than this year's, I'd be worried.  If I can ever buy tickets to a Michigan game for less than $15 on Stubhub I will be worried.  Right now I'm not worried.  Am I unhappy?  Yes.  But I'm not worried.  Things will get better.


November 24th, 2013 at 8:57 AM ^

Your graph/chart/assessment is the line thing that has actually have me something to laugh about during this craptastic season. I'm pretty sure I've dropped a few f-bombs over the course of the season.

Bobby Boucher

November 24th, 2013 at 9:04 AM ^

Are you tracking the "fire Borges" or "fire Hoke" as well?  I think I saw more of those yesterday then I remember seeing "fire RR".  Would be interesting to compare all three phrases numerically.


November 24th, 2013 at 10:22 AM ^

Yeah, those will be broken down at the end of the year. It's overwhelmingly Borges, but Hoke has caught on of late, at least according to that particular analysis. There's some interesting stuff that I think might be good for the season summary, which will probably be available in early December. 

EDIT: See response to Steve Sharik below for the rough stats - the specific breakdowns are sadly on my drive at work. Forgot to send them to myself on Friday. 


November 24th, 2013 at 10:19 AM ^

As pissed of as I am, and I contributed 3 f bombs in one post yesterday ( I am glad to be part of the growing trend) next year is obviously key.  I know that is not a startling revelation, but given the tougher road schedule, if we are not 9 and 3 Hoke is in trouble.  More important is that we are competing in all of the games on both sides of the ball.  We cannot compete offensively right now.  Whether it is OL, DG or AB our offense is a joke against good defenses.  By competing I mea sustained drives that eat up clock and being able to run the ball occassionally when the defense knows you are going to run.  Is there anybody on the board right now who thinks if we had it on the 2 yard line and tried to run against, MSU or OSU we get ever score?  I mean a true run, not DG dancing around the edge or weaving through.  

 It is year 4 I believe next year, Our offense will be young, but our defense will be mature and experienced. We have to compete against all teams next year or Hoke is in trouble. 

That is such a depressing thought.  If Hoke can't get it done.


November 24th, 2013 at 10:35 AM ^

the first time it was presented. But now I realize the upward trends noted are the inverse of my interest in participation on MGoBlog in general of late.
This place has become really depressing to me and is actually making suffering through what is happening on the field more difficult. This was not the case during the RR years, which is what drew me in in the first place.
Maybe this will change when basketball takes over as the main focus, but I shutter at the thought of where things go if that young team implodes when we get to BIG play. Because that is certainly possible.


November 24th, 2013 at 10:42 AM ^

I have some of the rough results on a separate spreadsheet at work, so not with me here at home. There was going to be a section in the season-ending diary devoted to it, but as of right now, we're looking at about 80% "Borges" with another 15% split between Hoke and Funk. The remaining 5% or so are various mentions, including even a few extremists calling for Mattison's head.