Lots of losses in top 25, how high do we go?

Submitted by jaggs on October 1st, 2011 at 7:41 PM

#20 TCU loses

#16 South Florida crushed by Pitt

#15 Baylor loses

#14 Texas A&M picks up second loss

#10 South Carolina loses

1 of  #11 VT vs #13 Clemson loses

possible (likely)  #12 Florida loses to #3 Alabama

edit: also one of #7 Wisconsin vs #8 Nebraska

I think for sure we jump South Florida, Baylor, Texas A&M and end up in the #15 range. I also think we probably should be considered one of the top 15 teams. If Nebraska loses bad, we could jump them as well.



October 1st, 2011 at 9:37 PM ^

I think well be ranked 13th and the loser of the nebraska-wisconsin game with be 12th.

cept realistically i think we belong around 19th or 20th


October 1st, 2011 at 9:42 PM ^

We will be ranked in the middle teens and this has not been seen in any year of the Rich Rod era and has not been seen since 2008 (When I arrived here at Michigan).  This is the greatest year Michigan has had in quite a while and I do not see us losing more than 3 games at all.  We will most definitely be 9-3 and could be even better.  Illinois and Northwestern do not seem as strong as they showed earlier in the year and Purdue is trash and Iowa got beat by Iowa State.  Michigan State barely beat TSIO and they both looked horrible on offense.  We looked great all around this week, but we also have gotten better each week.  We finally have found a rhythm and look like a solid football team.


October 2nd, 2011 at 1:55 AM ^

Illinois has found ways to close out games, something they struggled with in the past (see today VS NW) MSU's defense looks intimidating especially with how much pressure they got on the QBs. If Denard struggles throwing, they'll be able to overcommit to the run just like they did with Miller today.


October 1st, 2011 at 10:33 PM ^

Given the way the rest of the Big 10 has played so far (including Nebraska against Wisconsin right now) I really don't think there's a team on our schedule that we can't beat if Hoke and Co. continue to get squeeze every drop of talent out of our guys.  I expect that we will lose at least two but at the beginning of the season I was going to be satisfied with 7-5 plus a bowl win.  I'm pretty excited about the second half of the schedule to see where we end up.


October 1st, 2011 at 10:49 PM ^

Memories of '09 and '10 still have me reluctant, however there were a couple games in both of those seasons that UM lost that could have went either way. I think each of the last 2 years' teams were on the verge of being decent, but youth, injuries, and bad luck with turnovers (or carelessness, take your pick) handicapped them.

With those constraints under control now, for the most part, I'm confident that this team is on the verge of being 'good.' That being said, I dont see why most of you are only confident  about Purdue going forward. Without Wisconsin on the schedule, I think Michigan, accross the board, is as talented or more talented than every remaining team they have left to play. I think they will be favored next week, and if they win, Vegas will like them at MSU also. Illinois on the road is a toss-up and Ohio's offense can't possibly be on the same trajectory as our ever improving defense - adequate as it may be. 17 points will win that game.


October 1st, 2011 at 11:44 PM ^

Can't be lower than 14. Impressive win (over a ridiculously bad team) and lots of bad teams dropping out of the top 20. No one should leapfrog us so as bizarre as it seems; 13-14 is reasonable.


October 1st, 2011 at 11:52 PM ^

I agree with robmorren2. I was telling a friend of mine earlier today that if everything fell into place perfectly (Bama, Sconsin, Clemson or Va Tech won big) that is exactly where we would end up. Do I think that we would be these teams that we are passing? Shit no! But this is how the system works... And the current system says we'll be #12 when the polls come out tomorrow.


October 1st, 2011 at 11:53 PM ^

This is the way Bo used to crush the Little Eight back in the day. 

It's a very faint whiff, and it's still in the distance, but I'm startng to smell real Michigan football. I don't care who you're playing, 58-0 is a respectable score.


October 2nd, 2011 at 12:15 AM ^

If we take care of the teams we should beat, we should be in the polls the rest of the season (or at least until the end of Nov.). I don't think a loss at Sparty would drop us from the Top 25 and we should be favored in the rest of the games. Being in the polls will help us validate our move in the right direction, and give us recruiting ammunition. Hoke. Hoke. Hoke.


October 2nd, 2011 at 1:12 AM ^

My projections  

AP Top 25
1 LSU (42) 5-0 1471 W 1
2 Oklahoma (12) 4-0 1422 W 2
3 Alabama (5) 5-0 1413 W 3
4 Boise State (1) 4-0 1280 W 4
5 Oklahoma State 4-0 1209 DNP 6
6 Stanford 3-0 1205 Winning 31-19 UCLA 7
7 Wisconsin 5-0 1177 W 48-17 Neb 5
8 Nebraska 4-1 991 L 48-17 Wiscy 15
9 Oregon 3-1 985 DNP 9
10 South Carolina 4-1 950 L 16-13 Aub 14
11 Virginia Tech 4-1 883 L 23-3 Clemson 19
12 Florida 4-1 820 L 38-10 Bama 16
13 Clemson 5-0 744 W 23-3 VT 8
14 Texas A&M 2-2 734 L 42-38 Ark 24
15 Baylor 3-1 659 L 36-35 KSU 17
16 South Florida 4-1 585 L 44-17 Pitt NR
17 Texas 4-0 466 W 11
18 Arkansas 4-1 434 W 42-38 TAMU 10
19 Michigan 5-0 417 W 58-0 Minn 12
20 TCU 3-2 338 L 40-33 SMU NR
21 Georgia Tech 5-0 298 W 13
22 West Virginia 4-1 280 W 20
23 Florida State 2-2 239 DNP 21
24 Illinois 5-0 179 W 18
25 Arizona State 3-1 112 Winning 28-20 OrSt 22



October 2nd, 2011 at 2:05 AM ^

TAMU joins the two loss club, and the only member of that club in the Top 25 heading into today was Florida State @23.  TAMU has to fall into the 20s.

South Carolina staying ahead of us would be reasonable, but I'm figuring the voters will move them down a few spots after a loss, which leaves a window.

Maybe I'm biased against VT.  I picked them in the Pick Six contest (based on what seemed to be a cakewalk schedule) and was afraid they'd get exposed today.  I didn't see the game, and the total yards don't look as bad as the 23-3 score suggests.  Still, they are now a one-loss team that was beaten soundly.

Nebraska & Florida got destroyed.  (I think we could stay within 31 of Wiscy).  Neither has a validating win against a ranked opponent.  (Neither do we, but we also don't have a blowout loss.)


October 2nd, 2011 at 1:45 AM ^

Wouldn't be totally shocking to leapfrog Arkansas.  Probably not justified, but 58-0 might sway some voters given how close their game was and we aren't very far behind in votes as it is.  Somewhere between 11-13 is probably right.  I would be surprised with 14 or lower.


October 2nd, 2011 at 1:21 AM ^

9-3 is a WORST case scenario - and sparty, ohio & neb (my potential losses) are all eminently beatable.  A top 10 finish seems probable after what was a VERY encouraging day today both froma playbook and defensive standpoint.


October 2nd, 2011 at 1:47 AM ^

It's not a "worst case" scenario.  I've seen better Michigan teams than this one lose conference games they should have won by multiple TDs.  Also, I think you are forgetting @Illinois, which looks like it will be one of the most difficult games left on the schedule.  Plus TSIO could also be much improved by the time UM plays them, with the return of the suspended players and additional maturation for MIller. 

Still, I agree with what I think is the spirit of your post--that the most likely way to finish 9-3 is by winning all "easy" games and losing the marquee matchups.

Franz Schubert

October 2nd, 2011 at 2:23 AM ^

Squeked out a 23-20 win over Westerm Michigan last week and was down 28-17 late in the 3rd quarter to NW when Persa left the game. No way does Illinois win that game today without the Persa injury. Both games were in Champaign, im not impressed.


October 2nd, 2011 at 2:08 AM ^

not saying we deserve it, but we are 5-0, and that's what happens.  The right teams lost in front of us this week, and Nebraska lost big enough to drop below us.  This is slightly terrifying, because looking at the schedule, what game isn't winnable right now?


October 2nd, 2011 at 2:13 AM ^

Yes, we may go as high as probably #12, but many, many voters and columnists remember that Michigan has gone 4-0 to start the season the past 2 years, and then crashed in flaming ruin once the away games and B1G schedule started. It's mentioned in every Rittenberg/Mandel/Forde/etc. piece I read.

However high we go, I think we'll be SEVERELY punished for a loss, more than almost any other team in our position would be, due to our reputation for collapsing down the stretch.

Hopefully we can just win out all the way and avoid that bias entirely, but I wouldn't be surprised to see us drop 10 spots or more after our first loss this year.


Solution: Just win them all.


October 2nd, 2011 at 6:37 AM ^

Let's not get caught up in the rankings. As long as we stay "Bi-Winning" (non-conf & B1G season), we should be good.  Let's restart this thread after we dump-truck little brother...


October 2nd, 2011 at 8:51 AM ^

I'm really juiced to move up in the rankings - this year however - I'm not so sure. Not drinking the kool-aid just yet but getting closer. If we win the next two weeks on the road, pour me a big o glass. Denard looked better yesterday and the D is playing well. Getting a little more excited each week.