James Franklin Tweet at 1:38AM
Michigan, Michigan, Michigan, Michigan, Michigan, Michigan, Michigan, Michigan, Michigan, Michigan, Michigan, Michigan, Michigan, Michigan, Michigan, Michigam, Michigan, Michigan, Michigan, Michigan, Michigan!
— James Franklin (@coachjfranklin) October 28, 2018
Posted at 1:38AM...
Beat Penn State. No idea what to make of this team. By the advanced stats, they are solidly a top 10 team but they haven't looked like a complete team for the last 3 weeks.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:49 AM ^
Penn state gave up 250 rushing yards on the road at Illinois..
Let that sink in for the board.. I'm not sure why they scare people... We will run all over their dumbasses. They have a bunch of young players trying to focus in a loud environment. We will eat them alive.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:39 AM ^
I think M should be favored, no doubt.
But...Penn State is no. 10 in S&P+, no. 17 in the AP. McSorely makes plays, especially late in games.
You are wildly underestimating them. No 10ish or no. 17ish beating no. 5ish happens a lot.
If M has a good game plan, avoids mistakes and turnovers, and limits McSorley's running production, M very likely wins. But none of those are givens.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:09 AM ^
S&P+ is really impressed that they hung with Horror U, which looks really good in Sun Belt play. It’s also really impressed that they scored a bunch of late touchdowns against Pitt and Illinois.
It also incorporates its own preseason projections.
Meanwhile, it doesn’t know that (a) Don Brown has been thinking about PSU every day for a year, (b) James Franklin couldn’t win a coaching competition on “Are You Smarter than a Fifth Grader?,” (c) its preseason projections were bunk because they didn’t realize how much drop-off there would be, and (d) the OSU game was bad. Really, really bad. Mind-bogglingly, “hey, let’s not tackle that guy” bad, on both sides of the ball.
I like S&P+, but PSU is not the tenth best team in the nation. Ten better teams, on a neutral field, in no particular order: Alabama, Michigan, Clemson, LSU, Georgia, Florida, OSU, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and MSU. Heck, Kentucky might be better than them, and I think Kentucky is a fraud.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:30 AM ^
Agree with your post. S&P+ is far from perfect and probably overrating PSU at no. 10. More accurate with 12 games of data than 8.
But...say PSU is no. 17 or whatever. No. 17ish beating no. 5ish? That is not super rare.
M really should win. But if M squanders 1st have red zone chances...and Penn State is hanging within 10 or 12 at the start of the 4th...tipped ball interception gives Penn State a short field...Hamler gets behind the D on a rare bust...McSorley escapes a near sack and gets a big run...an untimely couple of penalties extend a PSU drive...
This is CFB. Weird stuff happens.
If M really is a playoff team, then this is the game where they need to show that they can take control of things against a good opponent in the 1st half.
Playoff teams do that. M did not do it against Wisconsin or MSU. Even though M clearly outplayed both in the 1st half of those games, the scores were still one score games at the half.
Penn State is better than Wisconsin and MSU. Michigan will need its best offensive performance of the year to win.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^
Oh, for heaven’s sake, quit moving the goalposts. Now Michigan has to take control in the first half, specifically? Do first half points count double now?
What’s next? Touchdowns scored by fullbacks are worth four points?
Michigan is not likely to “take control of things” (on the scoreboard) in the first half, because that isn’t their style. Harbaugh clearly prefers to try to wear the other team down in the first half and to win the game in the fourth quarter. If you’re expecting 24+ first-half points, you’re counting on the PSU defense being complicit like Nebraska’s was.
I never felt the MSU game was in doubt, and I never felt the Wisconsin game was in doubt after the first drive of the second half.
ETA: I don’t believe PSU is better than Wisconsin (with Hornibrook). I do believe they’re better than MSU (with or without Lolwerke), but not much better, hence their loss at home to MSU. Michigan absolutely dominated MSU on the road, and now the team that lost (flukishly) to Staee in their stadium comes on the road to play in Michigan’s.
Michigan does not need their best offensive performance of the year to win this game. They simply need a better performance than they had against ND or NW.
October 28th, 2018 at 2:54 PM ^
MSU, the scoreboard, and 100,000+ fans in happy vallley disagree. So many Michigan fans take facts and add interpretations to them. MSU won at HV. Thats a fact.
October 28th, 2018 at 3:25 PM ^
Better team does not always win. Welcome to college football.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:52 AM ^
It's like those brainstorming sessions the teachers made us do in junior high. Like, just free associate everything you can with the word 'rainbows' for a minute. And now 'Michigan'....and Jame Franklin just gets stuck.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:52 AM ^
We await their visit to The Big House as game 3 of our revenge tour for the regular season.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:00 AM ^
Maybe he has memory issues like Urban, and wrote that as a reminder so he can remember who he plays this week
October 28th, 2018 at 10:02 AM ^
Penn State is not very good. They beat Iowa who is all gimmick on offense and who lost to Wisconsin. UW now has three losses. PSU lost to MSU who has a decent defense but is pretty incomplete as a team. They lost to OSU, which originally seemed like a “good” loss. not as much after their Purdue loss and TCU going down against Kansas - what is OSUs big win this season? This conference is a three team race right now. Us, Good OSU, and surprisingly bad OSU. We will beat PSU at home and coast into Columbus. Just depends which OSU team shows up there to decide the conference.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:04 AM ^
That looked like a tough physical game yesterday. I'm hoping Iowa took a little out of PSU.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:08 AM ^
The Sparty board seems confident penn st wins. ??? Their trying to figure out how they can still get to Indy. They were also wondering if they had the best defense in the big. Those must of been some good dreaming going on in spartyland.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:26 AM ^
I know how they can get to Indy - buy a ticket to watch Michigan.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:10 AM ^
1st thing on Don Brown's mind every day for the past year. It's going to be a long and painful day for Mc VerySOREly and friends on Saturday. "Solve problems with violence" (PLEASE on the gridiron only) and Brown is going to unleash hell. Franklin better hope the Sox win and Brown is in a good mood this week.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:35 AM ^
I think you’re correct. And I would add to that that the u of m offense, which has shown glimmers of genius these past few weeks is on the verge of coming together and I think will come together this coming Saturday. This game won’t be close.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:11 AM ^
If you've watched PSU play like the last 2-3 games, they look completely discombobulated. PSU v Iowa was a terrible game to watch and neither team deserved to win. If we can neutralize either their passing or running game and hold them one or the other, I think we should be good
October 28th, 2018 at 11:02 AM ^
If we just stop their running game they cannot survive on their passing game..
Mcsorley is completing somewhere around 50-55 percent of his passes this year.. No way a QB that struggles to pass can come in and win in ann arbor if they can't establish a good run game.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:17 AM ^
October 28th, 2018 at 10:21 AM ^
Let the first person who has not, while employed as the head coach of a major college football team, fired off a wee-hours tweet stating the name of your upcoming opponent the maximum number of times permitted within the Twitter character limit cast the first stone.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^
Haha! ?
Thank you. This is a good lesson for allow of us to remember—especially on the Sabbath.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:25 AM ^
I still can't believe Iowa couldn't beat them. Didn't watch game but highlights show they were close with dumbass passing 4 yards from goalline interception. They also outgained PSU.
Hope Iowa hit these guys hard and and made them tired. OT wouldve been nice from energy expenditure pov.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:51 AM ^
The goal line interception was on a weird play where Iowa was rushing to get the snap off and half the team didn't seem to know the play had started.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^
Why not run the ball though.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^
I mean, what Iowa should have done was call time out. They were confused at the snap and pretty much nothing would have worked given that half the team just stood there at the start of the play.
As far as passing vs. running, who knows? It's not as though Iowa was gashing Penn State on the ground. I don't remember what down that was but I think it was still around the 4 yard-line so Iowa probably wouldn't have scored on that play by running it. Passing wise, Stanley was terrible most of the game and Griese was suggesting he might have messed up his thumb banging it on a helmet. But on that particular drive Iowa completed a series of short passes to get into scoring position.
Regardless, the play they called might have worked if the tight end had done whatever he was supposed to do (run his route to draw coverage away from where the back was going, or possibly block--which would have been legal if the pass was caught behind the LOS). Instead, he just stood there and the defender came up and intercepted the ball.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:09 AM ^
Iowa kept it close without scoring a single TD involving their QB, RBs, WRs, or TEs. They scored 2 field goals, a pick 6, a trick play pass from their punter and 2 safeties. If Iowa's defense can do that on the road, imagine what we can do at home with a competent offense
October 28th, 2018 at 10:30 AM ^
If the Michigan D can limit McSorley's runs, the table tilts very much in M's favor. So...d-line has to stay in their lanes and not let McSorley escape the pocket. Do that and M is very likely going to win.
OTOH...
Penn State D is almost as good as MSU D, maybe better given that MSU D has yet to face OSU and the PSU D was very good against OSU, until the last 6-7 minutes.
Penn State offense will be a far tougher test than any offense M has faced in 2018 (no. 18 offense, per S&P+). O.K. arguably Wisconsin has an offense as good or slightly better than Penn State. But McSorley and KJ Hamler are going to test the Michigan D a lot more than Wisconsin's baffling decisions (even on 3rd and short!) to not run Taylor more.
Hoping JH does not enter the game with a 'just score 24 and my D will do the rest...' mentality. A great plan against MSU's unproductive offense. Penn State has a much better O than MSU.
Hoping JH enters the game with a 'I need a plan to get to 34 points so that it won't come down to McSorely with a chance in the last 6 minutes...' mentality. That will require more first half scoring from M than has been typical this year.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:25 AM ^
Jim Harbaugh is going to approach this game the same way he’s approached every game this year — with an eye toward wearing down the opponent and winning in the fourth quarter. He will not be opening the game up to try to win it in the first half while risking setting PSU up with short fields.
If you think Michigan is game-planning with the assumption that PSU will score 30 points, you’re nuts.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^
Yeah, this has been on ongoing debate on this board all year.
I am in the camp that thinks that sort of offensive game plan--wear down opponent, play great D, field position--really is the best against MSU's pretty bad O.
But I think rotating towards a different offensive game plan is better against Penn State, and especially against OSU.
Not calling for abandoning M's offensive identity or anything. Just that M will need to play offense a bit differently against PSU and OSU than against a team like MSU or even Wisconsin (D not as good this year as PSU D).
Am I nuts? No. PSU has a much better chance of getting to 30 than any team M has played so far. They probably will not get to 30. But they have a much higher probability of getting to 30 than MSU, NW, Wisconsin, or ND had.
Therefore, to account for that change in probabilities, it is NOT crazy for M to adjust the offensive game plan accordingly.
IOW, it is NOT crazy to say that the ideal offensive game plan against MSU (terrible and injury riddled O) is also the optimal offensive game plan against PSU (McSorley, Hamler, not injury riddled...).
October 28th, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^
Then — no offense, but I’m glad you’re not the coach. ;)
”High scoring OSU” is an offense built on smoke, mirrors, and screen passes. They cannot run the ball. They got blown out by Purdon’t in a game where their QB threw over 70 passes. They have exactly one more point in Big Ten play than Michigan does — in the same number of games — and they have played Rutger. Michigan’s offense — the same one you’re so quick to malign because they don’t score enough first-half points — has outscored PSU’s.
Question: which defense in the Big Ten is best suited to stop an offense predicated around either (a) QB runs (PSU) or (b) screen passes (OSU)?
It’s a trick question, because the answer is “the same defense that’s best suited to stop everything else.” However, I should point out that having team speed, especially at the linebacker position, is critical to both of these (counting viper as linebacker for this purpose). Devin Bush and Khaleke Hudson wave hello.
Michigan will win this game going away, as they did vs. Wisconsin and at MSU.
October 28th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^
Have to disagree. PSU will be a harder challenge than the MSU or Wisc games.
Michigan D is phenomenal. But that absolutely does not mean that the best offensive game plan for M against MSU is also the best offensive game plan for M against PSU or OSU.
And if you do not think OSU's offense is going to be a real challenge...then I am glad YOU are not the coach.
Adding up total points scored against Big Ten opponents is a terrible metric for judging an offense.
Advanced metrics show that OSU has a top 10 offense, and by far the best offense M will face in the regular season. Guess what? Teams with top 10 offenses lose sometimes. Ask Oklahoma. Ask Georgia. Ask Washington. Ask Wash. State.
'OSU lost to Purdue therefore OSU offense is all smoke and mirrors' is a silly argument.
Finally, I did NOT "malign" Michigan's offense. So what are you talking about?
October 28th, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
OSU’s offense is all smoke and mirrors, therefore OSU lost to Purdon’t, not the other way around.
They’re one-dimensional. They have been all year. Purdue found a way to make them pay. Michigan can do the same. If the game were in Ann Arbor this year, Michigan would be a 5-point favorite.
Points scored in conference games is a quick proxy for a strength of schedule adjustment, unless you think that OSU’s 77 against Oregon St. is meaningful somehow.
I think I hear what you’re trying to say, but you’re making an underdog’s argument. Michigan is not going to go into a matchup thinking “our defense can’t stop these guys, so we need to take extra risks to give ourselves a chance to win.” Harbaugh’s approach is clear — he wants to keep the offense on the field and wear down the opposing defense until they snap. This is the very same strategy Michigan inadvertently gifted to their opposition last year; 2017 Michigan’s offense basically turned the other team’s defense into 2018 Michigan’s defense. And, if you’ll remember, Michigan lost a lot of games in the fourth quarter last year when the defense simply couldn’t make any more stops.
And, I won’t quibble with you over language. If you don’t see your criticism of Michigan’s offense in the first half as maligning it, fine. That’s how it reads to me, but regardless, I think you’re wrong.
October 28th, 2018 at 1:45 PM ^
Seems you and I are destined to disagree. But hey, a good debate is fun, so here goes...
Is Wash. St. 'smoke and mirrors' on offense? Like OSU, they are one dimensional. One dimensional OSU still is a really good offense.
'Points scored in conference games a quick proxy for...' Why use such a poor proxy? You are cherry picking data. Just use advanced metrics. They are better. They don't artificially limit the data set to just 5 conf. games. They adjust for quality of opponent, eliminate garbage time stuff, etc., etc.
OSU offense is no. 4 in S&P+. Michigan O is no. 29. It is not 'maligning' Michigan's pretty good, but not yet great O, to point out the facts.
And if you think not scoring much in the 1st half against ND, NW, Wisc, and MSU is a feature not a bug... Sorry man that is a bug.
Harbaugh absolutely is NOT intentionally calling plays in the first half that reduce scoring probabilities in order to wear down the opponent for the 4th.
Under performance on scoring in the 1st halfs does not produce any benefit in terms of winning 4th quarters or wearing down opponents.
Case in point: Would MSU have been less worn down if M had actually scored 10 or 14 more points in the second quarter instead of letting a bunch of drives that started with great field position stall? No. They would have been more worn down, and probably demoralized.
Pretty sure Harbaugh views the failure to score much in the first half against MSU and Wisc (despite otherwise dominating) as something he wants to fix/improve on, and NOT as part of some master plan to win the 4th quarter.
Pretty sure Harbaugh wants to see M do better on first half scoring against Penn State than M did against MSU and Wisc.
Offense is getting better almost every week. No. 29 offense is WAY better than in 2017. All the tools are there for the offense to end up way better than no. 29 over the final 4 games. Not there yet though...
Finally, if M beats Penn State, M will be a favorite to win in Columbus. But that does not mean the game plan M used against MSU will be the best game plan against OSU. Good coaches adjust offensive game plans for the opponent. Harbaugh is a very good coach.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:04 PM ^
Yes, WSU is ‘smoke and mirrors’ on offense. They play in the Pac-12, where defense is optional. Mike Leach’s teams have always gotten blown up when they’ve had to go play teams outside of the Pac-12/Big XII. It’s actually a lot like WSU’s last half-decent team. It’s easy to forget, but a lot of people nationally believed that Ryan Leaf was going to tear Michigan’s national champion defense to shreds, and that Michigan was going to have to score 35+ points in the Rose Bowl to win. Spoiler alert: he didn’t.
I’m not cherry-picking data. If I were cherry-picking data, would I pick a slate where Michigan has clearly faced a tougher test than OSU? I don’t trust S&P+ nearly as much now that Bill C. is no longer removing preseason bias. Besides which, while I appreciate the fact that S&P+ is tempo-free and tries to adjust to the opponent, I still think that it puts way too much weight into beating up weak teams.
I’m certainly not claiming that Michigan is intentionally having their drives stall. However, it seems that nearly all playcalling criticism, once you get past the “Y U NO CALL THE TOUCHDOWN PLAY?” analysis-type substance, boils down to “pass more, take more risks, and play faster.” “Take more shots downfield,” “Shea needs to see the field better,” etc. While I’m certain that the coaches have been working with Shea on his reads, I”m also pretty sure that they’re happy he’s not throwing the “50/50 balls” of which so many commenters (and Brian) seem enamored. The last thing I want is to have Michigan turn the ball over because of bad luck on coin flip plays.
And, you’re right about the specifics of the game plan being different from game-to-game, but the underlying philosophy isn’t. Michigan simply isn’t going to turn into a high-octane, 600+ yards per game offense. What changes on a game-to-game basis is the mixture of play concepts, gaps to attack, etc. They may find that PSU is more vulnerable in the A gaps than the C gaps, or is extra-vulnerable to screens, or that they defend the jet sweep well so don’t bother running it (or run a counter off of jet-sweep action).
Your initial argument was that Michigan had to score more points in the first half to win the game. While they’d happily take that, I disagree entirely with the premise — they can win this game the same way they beat Wisconsin and MSU. If their early drives stall, they’re not going to panic and open up the offense (although I predict the game threads will be toxic). They’ll stay the course and rely on the defense to keep the game tight while they wear down PSU’s defensive front. I have little doubt that this will be successful.
October 28th, 2018 at 1:45 PM ^
EDIT: Oops. double post
October 28th, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
Very well said ... if rain is in the forecast, then it will be a slugfest! Go Blue!!!
October 28th, 2018 at 10:31 AM ^
So I guess Michigan is in his head? Great!
October 28th, 2018 at 10:42 AM ^
Quite possibly, the worst coach in Division 1 football....appears clueless.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:47 AM ^
The genius that is Benjamin "I mean James" Franklin
October 28th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^
Fuck you, Penn State and Field Goal Franklin (tm).
October 28th, 2018 at 10:56 AM ^
McSorley is all they have now and he will be lucky to make it out of the 1st quarter with limbs intact.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^
Hamler is pretty good. I'm glad M will face Penn State with Hamler because that could be good practice for going up against OSU's slot terrors.
On defense, I've been impressed with Gros-Matos, and Garrett Taylor is often inches from making big plays (and then fails, but sooner or later he's going to get one--hopefully not against us).
October 28th, 2018 at 10:59 AM ^
I wonder what he was drinking? Is Two Hearted Ale big in Pennsylvania too? Pennsylvania, you look at that word too long and it gets weird. Kinda similar to Transylvania, did the hungarian/bulgarian/other immigrants think up that state name?
October 28th, 2018 at 10:59 AM ^
I watched the PSU-Iowa game yesterday, and it was . . . not good football. The Iowa QB is the worst I've seen play so far this season, including Lewerke and Hornybook in their games against us.
PSU is going to need some lucky breaks to beat us. I really hope our CBs and safeties can get their heads around and INTERCEPT THE DAMN BALL when it's in their hands--they will have ample opportunities to make plays on Saturday.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^
james franklin is losing his mind this season. Im a little discouraged at the schadenfreude im feeling.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:01 AM ^
Alcohol had to be involved
October 28th, 2018 at 11:04 AM ^
Setting aside J Franklin’s weird tweet, I think that this game has the potential to be very tough for us. The team this year seems to have the maturity and attitude to avoid a post bye week letdown, but it is still a concern. I hope the team does not come out flat (see Texas versus Ok State yesterday) and, once again, turn our collective joy into suffering.
I think we either lose in a way similar to how we lost to ND or we blow them out.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^
Hi troll. How are you this Sunday morning? Now get the fuck out of here.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
Haha!
No troll, just stating my thoughts. I will be at the game and think we will light them up big time. However, the last decade or more has taught me to be reserved in my approach to these games.
It has been the only way I’ve been able to deal with the disappointment.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^
Oh James, if you only truly knew what awaits you this year in Ann Arbor. Reciting their name over and over so the world can see will be of no aid to you in the end. Your team is in the way of a freight train and you happen to right in the middle of the tracks. Choo-choo baby!! There is no stopping it now!!