Freep wrong on scenarios for winning the Divsision

Submitted by Wolverrrrrrroudy on October 30th, 2011 at 4:51 AM

Is it just me or is Michael Rosenberg correct on his article.  He claims MSU has to lose for Michigan to win the division.

 

http://www.freep.com/article/20111030/SPORTS07/110300625/Michael-Rosenberg-Nebraska-catbird-seat-MSU-could-pass-Legends?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Sports

I thought if there was a three way tie, that Michigan would win on overall record as Nebraska and MSU would each have two losses.  Am I wrong here, does it go to big 10 record first and that's what would put MSU in with a three way tie.

Comments

MaizeNBlueTexan

October 30th, 2011 at 5:01 AM ^

If Michigan wins out we will still lose head to head with MSU.  Also, if we win out that means that Neb would have two losses, so it would be between a 1 conference loss UM and a 1 conference loss MSU with the head to head going to MSU.  We need MSU to get a second in conference loss.  It gets tricky if there are three teams tied at the end but since UM and Neb are destined to play each other at least one of those teams (them or us) will not be tied with MSU.

Blucken

October 30th, 2011 at 8:40 AM ^

If Michigan goes 3-1 with its loss to Ohio and msu loses to Iowa and Nebraska wins out (expect Michigan), Michigan wins the tiebreaker #5. In this case we would eliminate msu since common division opponents record would kick out msu due to the Iowa loss. Then it would be head to head vs Neb.
<br>Basically msu has to lose to Iowa.

Pulling Guard

October 30th, 2011 at 10:24 AM ^

A Random link looks suspicious. This is what it points to.

Legends:
Nebraska 6-2
Michigan 6-2
Michigan St. 6-2
Iowa 4-4
Northwestern 2-6
Minnesota 1-7

Team(s) with the best record:
Michigan St. Michigan Nebraska

Breaking 3-way tie

Chercking Record Against Each Other
Michigan St. has 1 wins
Michigan has 1 wins
Nebraska has 1 wins

Checking Record Against Division
Michigan St. has 3 wins
Michigan has 4 wins
Nebraska has 4 wins

Checking Head to Head

Winner is: Michigan

Section 1

October 30th, 2011 at 2:25 PM ^

I think he got it all right; at least no glaring errors, and I think he supplied a pretty good plain English description of the most likely scenarios.

I also discovered what the Detroit Lions were good for -- on road-game weekends, they draw Drew Sharp away from Michigan football.  A day without Drew is... well, nice.

OMG Shirtless

October 30th, 2011 at 2:38 PM ^

I just read Rosenberg.

I think he got it all right; at least no glaring errors, and I think he supplied a pretty good plain English description of the most likely scenarios.

Did anyone ever think it was possible for Section 1's computer to compose this combination of sentences? I thought a spell check type siren would have gone off, his hard drive would have erased, and his computer would have exploded to prevent this.

codeBLUE11

October 30th, 2011 at 5:11 AM ^

Yes, freep sucks..but they are right in this case.

We play Nebraska so a 3 way tie is impossible unless MSU loses.

No need to post a complete new thread on every question you have...ask it in a current thread (plenty of them discuss this) or just do a little bit of your own research. It's not that hard to figure out.

Wolverrrrrrroudy

October 30th, 2011 at 5:19 AM ^

I have seen other posts on the topic, and I thought it was record in Division that established the 3-way tie.  Then it went to head to head, still an overall tie, and then to overall record.

Nebraska's loss came out of the Legend's division, so it doesn't count towards winning the division.  Is there an extra step that I am missing:  i.e.

Division Record

Head to Head 

Conf Record

Overall Record

 

I though there have been other discussions indicating that three way tie would go to us?

Is there a link to big 10 rules on this?

 

codeBLUE11

October 30th, 2011 at 2:12 PM ^

Yes, your tiebreakers are correct, but all CONFERENCE games count toward division standing, not just division games. That's why a three way tie is impossible unless state loses again.

The standings have us in the lead, because we do lead with the 3-way tie scenario that we currently have.

Wolverrrrrrroudy

October 30th, 2011 at 5:37 AM ^

 

Seems to me, the first step in a Divisional three way tie scenario is the overall record: Step 1.  the records of three tied teams compared against eachother.  Am I reading this wrong?  It doesn't say division or conference record.  Seems to me that in event of Michigan, Nebraska, MSU tie, that Michigan would only have one loss when applying step one and MSU and Nebraska each with two.

Also, in the standings posted on the website, it places Michigan ahead of Michigan State and behind Nebraska because of overall record.

 

This is from the Big Ten Conference Website:

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/archive/081011aaa.html

 

The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:

  1. If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative
  2. If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.

    1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other
    2. The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division
    3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, and 6)
    4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents;
    5. The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big Ten regular season conference play shall be the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game, unless the two highest ranked tied teams are ranked within one spot of each other in the BCS poll. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the Big Ten Championship
    6. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative
    7. The representative will be chosen by random draw.

LSAClassOf2000

October 30th, 2011 at 6:19 AM ^

There are three teams in the Legends division with 3-1 conference records right now - Michigan, MSU and Nebraska. We play Nebraska in a few weeks, so a three-way tie with MSU involved is not possible with MSU losing another game down the stretch. If we win out, MSU would need to lose at least one one more game because we lose the head-to-head in the event of a tie. Really, in brief, we simply need to have the best record at the end - we play Nebraska, and we lose in a head-to-head against MSU, so ties of any sort leave us in a precarious position right now.

Further, we would need to have less than 10 points in "deadwood" in order to "knock" our opponent, but we must be careful because they could "undercut" us and not only would we lose, they would be awarded 25 points on top of the difference between deadwood piles. 

joeyb

October 30th, 2011 at 12:02 PM ^

Michigan needs to beat Iowa, Nebraska, and 1 of the other 2. Nebraska needs to win out besides us. MSU needs a loss.

If MSU's loss is to Indiana, it will go to the BCS ranking and MSU will be so low that it will be between Nebraska and Michigan. Having just beat Nebraska, I'd assume we'd be ahead of them. Nebraska would have to be 2 spots ahead of us for us to lose the tiebreaker because if we are 1 spot apart it goes to the head-to-head.

If MSU's loss is to anyone else, MSU gets eliminated due to division losses and it goes to head-to-head against Nebraska.

If MSU loses a game and Michigan wins all of the last 4, they will have the best conference record.

If Nebraska gets any other losses, we will need to win all of our games and have MSU lose because we will lose the head-to-head against MSU.

Basically, Nebraska has the ability to put us in a 3-way tie with MSU, which is the only way we will beat MSU in tiebreakers.

Pulling Guard

October 30th, 2011 at 12:25 PM ^

If we lose to Illinois and beat Ohio, it comes down to BCS.

Legends: Nebraska 6-2 Michigan 6-2 Michigan St. 6-2 Iowa 3-5 Northwestern 2-6 Minnesota 1-7

Team(s) with the best record: Michigan St. Michigan Nebraska

Breaking 3-way tie

Chercking Record Against Each Other Michigan St. has 1 wins Michigan has 1 wins Nebraska has 1 wins

Checking Record Against Division Michigan St. has 4 wins Michigan has 4 wins Nebraska has 4 wins

Checking Record Against Teams with 5 Wins Michigan St. has 0 wins Michigan has 0 wins Nebraska has 0 wins

Checking Record Against Teams with 4 Wins Michigan St. has 0 wins Michigan has 0 wins Nebraska has 0 wins

Checking Record Against Teams with 3 Wins Michigan St. has 1 wins Michigan has 1 wins Nebraska has 1 wins

Checking Record Against Teams with 2 Wins Michigan St. has 1 wins Michigan has 1 wins Nebraska has 1 wins

Checking Record Against Teams with 1 Wins Michigan St. has 1 wins Michigan has 1 wins Nebraska has 1 wins

Checking Record Against Teams with 0 Wins Michigan St. has 0 wins Michigan has 0 wins Nebraska has 0 wins

Checking Record Against Common Conference Opponents Michigan St. has 4 wins Michigan has 4 wins Nebraska has 4 wins

Result Comes Down to BCS between: Michigan St. Michigan Nebraska

solarwebdesign.com/champs/index.php?scenario=265239829

If we lose to Ohio State, Nebraska wins because of Common Conference Opponents.

Legends: Nebraska 6-2 Michigan 6-2 Michigan St. 6-2 Iowa 3-5 Northwestern 2-6 Minnesota 1-7

Team(s) with the best record: Michigan St. Michigan Nebraska

Breaking 3-way tie

Chercking Record Against Each Other Michigan St. has 1 wins Michigan has 1 wins Nebraska has 1 wins

Checking Record Against Division Michigan St. has 4 wins Michigan has 4 wins Nebraska has 4 wins

Checking Record Against Teams with 5 Wins Michigan St. has 0 wins Michigan has 0 wins Nebraska has 0 wins

Checking Record Against Teams with 4 Wins Michigan St. has 0 wins Michigan has 0 wins Nebraska has 0 wins

Checking Record Against Teams with 3 Wins Michigan St. has 1 wins Michigan has 1 wins Nebraska has 1 wins

Checking Record Against Teams with 2 Wins Michigan St. has 1 wins Michigan has 1 wins Nebraska has 1 wins

Checking Record Against Teams with 1 Wins Michigan St. has 1 wins Michigan has 1 wins Nebraska has 1 wins

Checking Record Against Teams with 0 Wins Michigan St. has 0 wins Michigan has 0 wins Nebraska has 0 wins

Checking Record Against Common Conference Opponents Michigan St. has 4 wins Michigan has 3 wins Nebraska has 4 wins

Checking Head to Head

Winner is: Nebraska

solarwebdesign.com/champs/index.php?scenario=265231636

Wolverrrrrrroudy

October 30th, 2011 at 7:39 AM ^

I was missing that it is the conference record not divisional record that determines tie. I don't think that is right, should be division first. Anyway, Not likely all three win out.

joeyb

October 30th, 2011 at 12:08 PM ^

If it's division first then the cross-division games don't matter at all. That's why a lot of people were pissed that OSU was in the other division. They thought that the game would have no meaning to either teams' season. This is how it is done in every conference. Even the NFL looks at overall record before division record when determining the division winners.

ESNY

October 30th, 2011 at 7:48 AM ^

He's wrong, of course. If Michigan wins out, and both MSU and Neb win out, with the exception of the michigan game, there will be a three way tie for the division with each team having one loss in the division. Then the tie breaker rules would favor michigan. I think it would take the fourth or fifth tiebreaker to decide it and i think that would favor Michigan. Neb would lose out on overall conf record and then Mich woukd top MSU on common opponents.

Ahor

October 30th, 2011 at 9:14 AM ^

Divisional record only matters when there is a tiebreak, there won't be a tiebreak if Nebraska loses to UM, and both UM and MSU win out. Overall Big Ten record is the first measure (which sucks since we play OSU every year and MSU plays Indiana... I was really hoping Gunner Kiel stayed there for that reason). Point being, even if all teams were 4-1 in the division, Nebraska being at 6-2 and UM and MSU at 7-1 overall in B1G means that the three-way tie scenario is not even looked at.

somewittyname

October 30th, 2011 at 12:28 PM ^

Conference record determines rank. Then comparison between the 3 teams' head-to-heads. Then division record. MSU has to lose with the only plausible opponent being Iowa or NW, which means it would be in-division, which means they lose out on division record tiebreaker and we would have beaten Nebraska so we win.

Bighouse1475

October 30th, 2011 at 8:15 AM ^

It is my understanding, Division record means nothing. Conference record does. If there was a division record, now there are 3 records for every team. Ever seen a standing with 3 records next to each team?

UMMAN83

October 30th, 2011 at 8:30 AM ^

I also like his prediction for Neb and Wiscy in the title game.  Um, Wisy has 2 losses already in their divisison.  I stopped reading the Freep, read this AM 'cause of this thread,  Now plan to stop again.

myrtlebeachmai…

October 30th, 2011 at 9:07 AM ^

It's the same even with the 2 divisions...   I.E. Same as why Sparty can run around claiming "Co-Big Ten Champs" from last year - they had the same record even though they played none of the better teams - didn't matter who you drew in your schedule, still conf, conf, conf to be looked at first.

The many posters disagreeing are correct, it's still that way.  Under such rules a 3 way tie with 3 one loss teams is impossible b/c of our Neb game, one of us loses and that leaves MSU and the winner in a 2 way.

A 3 way is possible if MSU loses again, and we could win in the right scenario.

Conference first, period (just like SEC and every other split conference).

myrtlebeachmai…

October 30th, 2011 at 11:31 AM ^

I was trying to adress the OP's mistaken "tie scenarios".

I believe the OP was confused b/c of all the 3 way tiebreakers being talked about before this past weekend.  Those are only relevant now if it's a 3 way, 2 loss tie.  (I.E. Neb, UM, and MSU all lose 1 more). 

We need MSU to lose, and we  win out; or hope for the 3 way, 2 loss tie (with our loss coming against the right "non-division" opponent. 

 

me

October 30th, 2011 at 9:24 AM ^

that determines the divisional standings.  Division record is the second tie break.  So currently as it stands, Nebraska and Iowa actually control their own destiny and MSU and Michigan need help.

 

MICHfanINsecLAND

October 30th, 2011 at 10:05 AM ^

Keep in mind that this is based on Neb, MSU, and UM winning all other games not mentioned in said senario.

Michigan gets in if....

Senario 1- Michigan wins out and Michigan St. loses one of it's final 4 games.

Senario 2- Michigan beats Nebraska and Iowa and goes 1-1 with Illinois and Ohio St. Michigan St goes 2-1 vs Iowa, NW, or Minny.

Senario 3- If MSU loses only to IU and wins there other 3 gms, and Michigan does senario 2 it would get a little tricky, not likely, so ill leave it out = It would go to #4, common conference opponets if anyone else wants to figure that one out.

Explanation on senario 2, MSU would be eliminated under step # 2, because they would be 3-2 in division and both Neb and UM would be 4-1. So in a 3 way tie, if any team is removed through a step the two teams left will go to head to head. Mich beating Neb will get us in.

Bottom line Michigan must beat both Iowa and Neb to have any chance to get in and even then they will still need MSU to lose 1 more game.

Eye of the Tiger

October 30th, 2011 at 12:15 PM ^

But that trip to Iowa is dangerous for them.  Northwestern might not be that good, but they're the kind of team that, if a few balls roll the right way, can pull of an upset.  I wouldn't put money on the upset, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if they gave State more trouble than they expect to get.  

Best would be if they lost to Minnesota.