Michigan

[Ed-S: Probably going to bump this feature all year unless I forget to.]

Well, that’s one way to start a season.

Best:  Roman Reign’d In

In my preseason preview, I cautioned that this column’s length is going to be much more dependent on the quality of the game compared to earlier seasons; life finds a way of limiting the number of hours you can dedicate matching animated gifs to a sporting event involving kids dangerously close to half your age or more.

While the acquitted themselves admirably against Cal to start the year, the Rainbow Warriors were basically what everyone thought they were.  Hawaii has a senior QB with a career completion percentage a shade under 50%, a 19:24 TD:INT ratio, and no real mobility.  They don’t really have much of a running game if the defense has any ability to hold up even momentarily at the point of attack, and if the guy throwing the ball doesn’t have good numbers, you gotta believe the guys trying to catch those balls aren’t particularly good either.  Their defense last year was nestled between North Texas and Oregon St. in FEI, and that was with a couple of guys on the defensive line who were either injured or kicked off the team for this game.  I balked at the 44-point spread for the sole reason that I assumed Hawaii would pick up a couple of meaningless points at the end of a blowout to “only” lose by 40. 

That’s what would have happened under Carr.  It’s what would have happened under Hoke.  It wouldn’t have happened under RR simply because the defense would have given up some points along the way.  It was about winning with “class”, about beating an inferior opponent soundly but not excessively.  You showed up for the body bag games because you had to be part of the equation, the vengeful god smiting the peasants giving you tribute.  That’s how Michigan did it for years, and it seemed to work out pretty well.

But Harbaugh ain’t wired like that.  Now, he’s not a Steve Spurrier at Florida or an Urban Meyer at OSU, who took any opportunity to run the score up even if it meant going for 2 on your first two scores of the game.  But as was his mantra at Stanford, he wants his teams with win with character, but also with cruelty.  Harbaugh will put in his backups when appropriate and won’t necessarily “pick” on an opponent, but as we saw in the Citrus Bowl in which Jake Rudock was throwing bombs well into the 4th quarter of that game, he isn’t going to shrink his playbook or go on “cruise control”.  He isn’t wired that way, to relent or show mercy in the patronizing way some other coaches do, and he (rightly) assumes that as long as there is time on the clock you play football.

[hit THE JUMP for complaining that a 98-yard touchdown drive should have gone better and stuff]

As some of you know, I’m joining MGoBlog to provide various types of basketball coverage, now that we’re a #basketballschool and all that. A brief introduction: I’m an Honors LSA Senior majoring in English (hopefully with a creative writing sub-concentration), I grew up making weekly pilgrimages from the Grand Rapids area to Ann Arbor on Fall Saturdays with my parents—both of whom graduated from the B School before Ross slapped his name on it—and younger brother—an Honors LSA sophomore (who is also named Brian Cook). I am not related to the proprietor of this site, as far as he and I know. We were a football family, but I fell in love with Michigan Hoops in 2009-2010 with Manny, Peedi, Coach B, and the gang. I’ve learned to love the NBA recently as well, but regret that I missed the glory years of my Detroit Pistons. I’m a Lions masochist, I complain about the Tigers’ managing and bullpen all summer, and I recently committed to Everton as my new EPL team (because Tim Howard’s a national hero). It’s a little up in the air as of right now, but Ace and I will sort out who covers what during hoops season. As for non-sports things: I’m a proud native Michigander and spend my summers living on Barlow Lake—Heaven on Earth, as far as I’m considered—I run as quickly as Terrance Taylor and am addicted to Bruegger’s on North U (these things may be related), and if anybody wants to hire me to a full-time job after school, PLEASE DO. If you see me on campus, say hi. I’ll be the tall, skinny-fat guy with curly black hair and light blue headphones.

Follow me on Twitter ( @alexcook616 )

1415 preseason all b1g

(Freshmen and incoming transfers are not included. They’re very difficult to accurately contextualize with returning players and they’ll be covered next week.)

* * *

Yogi preseason all b1g

For the Big Ten Player Comparisons, I created an algorithm that spits out the most similar statistical profiles for a given player’s. There are 20 unweighted categories—most of which are advanced metrics—but shooting and rebounding are well-accounted for. The database consists of 750 players from the 2008-2014 seasons. This post is already absurdly long, so I’ll have to explain it further at some other time. This system will probably be used pretty extensively.

Considering that the Hoosiers had Yogi Ferrell and Noah Vonleh—the latter was drafted in the lottery of a deep draft—their struggles were perplexing. A stable of uninspiring role players did little to augment the talents of their two stars and their offense was often stagnant and extremely turnover prone. Indiana didn’t shoot the ball well from the field, but the inability to hold onto the ball was crippling—IU finished 330th nationally in turnover rate, easily the last in the Big Ten. Ferrell can be best categorized as a scoring point guard: he’s ball-dominant and often probes the defense with his quickness rather than driving right to the rim, he’s one of the better shooters in the league (40% on a ridiculous 220 attempts, mostly from above the break), and he gets to the free throw line and shoots better than 80% from the stripe over his career. There were a few games that Yogi took over with his scoring ability: 30 points (on just 15 FGA) at Illinois, 27 (including 7 made threes) against Michigan and at Purdue, and 25 and 24 in two games against Wisconsin. With Indiana’s turnover issues and Ferrell’s role as its offensive catalyst, his turnover rate—18.0%—wasn’t ideal, but it wasn’t exactly anomalous amongst analogous point guards.

yogi scatterplot preseason all b1g

Yogi didn’t have the ball-security of a Jordan Taylor or Drew Neitzel, but it wasn’t bad. Turning the ball over was a collective effort: the entire rotation (aside from Ferrell) had turnover rates of at least 20%. Adding five-star combo guard James Blackmon, Jr. should help out immensely in regard to that issue and it should enable Ferrell to play off-the-ball and distribute a little more this season. Ferrell will likely be the best point guard in the Big Ten and there’s a chance that he could lead the league in scoring.

[After THE JUMP: Caris checks in, others.]

[ED: Bump!]

Frank Martin is not known for being a good guy.

He is a nightmare with the media. He verbally abuses his players on the sidelines on a game by game basis. He left Kansas State, the program he built from the ground up, for an extra half million dollars a year. If that sounds familiar to Mountaineer fans, this is where the similarities end. The Miami(YTM) high school program where Martin cut his teeth committed, “The most egregious violations in state history.” When coaches talk about shady dealings and back-room exchanges of goods and services, they don’t talk about John Calipari. The conversation starts with Frank Martin, Michael Beasley and Bill Walker. And yet Martin has always managed to avoid prosecution.

Regardless of means (and its best not to look too close) Martin built a great program at Kansas State. Last year they went 22-11, 10-8 in conference, and advanced to the round of 32 in the tournament. Then karma intervened.

It turns out that Jamar Samuels, KState’s best post player, would be ineligible to play in the Syracuse game because of moneys he received from a former coach.(Martin would later admit that he gives money to former players all the time, throwing both himself and his former players under the bus.) Sure it was only 10 points and 7 rebounds they needed to replace…But it didn’t help, and Syracuse went on to curb stomp them 75-59. 

Within days, Martin was on a plane to South Carolina, and Bruce Webber was on a plane to Kansas State. Bruce Webber on the other hand, IS known for being a nice guy.

He may not be hailed as the greatest coach, and yeah he does sound like he just got kicked in the nads, but he is known for doing pretty well with other people’s recruits. And he inherited a hell of a team. Senior big man Jamar Samuels was the only loss of note from last year’s team.

6’7”big man Thomas Gipson has stepped into his place.

Gipson’s scoring and rebounding have improved by a couple(9pts and 6 boards) while his shooting percentage has dropped a bit.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Wildcats ho.]