Conference Bowl Performance - only one conference knows how to do this right
One of my best friends is a Buckeye. She really is a great friend, despite her alma mater and rooting interests. Towards the end of the game she sent me a couple texts saying Michigan had played really well and asking if I thought it was targeting. After a few exchanges, I said I hoped OSU would win so the B1G wouldn't be a complete embarrassment. Her reply, "Don't count on it".
While I cheer against Michigan's rivals all season, once it's bowl season, I like to see the conference do well. The sad thing is, I never expected a Michigan/OSU rematch, because I know the B1G isn't capable of rising up to the occasion. My OSU friend apparently knows the same thing.
It got me thinking...what does the data say about this. It wasn't as bad as I expected, it wasn't great either.
College Football Playoffs:
In the CFP era (starting in 2015), there have been three instances when one conference had two teams represented in the 4 team playoff. The SEC in 2018 & 2022 and the B1G this year. Where as the SEC swept the semifinals both years, the B1G was swept this year.
Bowl Results:
Here's the overall P5 conference records in this years bowl games:
SEC: 6 - 5
B1G: 5 - 4
ACC: 5 - 4
Big12: 2 - 6
Pac12: 3 - 4
I was curious how the ranked teams performed and this is where it gets interesting.
Here's the overall P5 conference records of ranked teams in this years bowl games:
SEC: 5 - 1
B1G: 1 - 2
ACC: 1 - 2
Big12: 1 - 2
Pac12: 3 - 3
Suddenly there is a big difference in how the conferences perform. Based on this, I looked at the last 5 years worth of data (2017 - current year)(I did not include the National Championship game results as it is not technically a bowl game, but did include Semifinal results as they are technically bowl games)
Overall 5 year conference bowl records (win percentage):
SEC: 28 - 25 (53%)
B1G: 27 - 18 (60%)
ACC: 21 - 25 (46%)
Big12: 17 - 19 (47%)
Pac12: 11 - 24 (31%)
The B1G has the best overall bowl record by a pretty good margin. The SEC, ACC, & Big12 are all around .500 and then the Pac12 (YIKES!!!).
Here is how are the ranked teams performed in bowls during this same 5 year period (keep in mind, these numbers do NOT include National Championship results, just semifinals):
SEC: 21 - 8 (72%)
B1G: 13 - 9 (59%)
ACC: 7 - 7 (50%)
Big12: 7 - 9 (44%)
Pac12: 5 - 12 (29%)
Again, a clear difference in how the ranked teams from the SEC perform better in bowl games.
One final data point to round this out. Here's the percentage of teams that were ranked by conference over that 5 year period:
SEC: 55%
B1G: 49%
ACC: 30%
Big12: 44%
Pac12: 49%
Final Thoughts:
The top of the SEC really does step up in big games and the rest of the conference really sucks. Of the 53 bowl games they played in the past 5 years ranked teams are 21 - 8. Non-ranked teams are 7 - 17.
The B1G is the most balanced conference. 45 total bowl games with ranked teams going 13 - 9 and unranked teams going 14 - 9.
Does it validate the middle and lower tier teams in the B1G make a more difficult season schedule than in the SEC, probably, but when the lights are shinning brightest, the SEC doesn't disappoint.
As far as which conferences are over/under rated?
The SEC bias is probably not as bad as we think. The B1G and ACC are probably not getting enough credit in rankings. The Big12 is getting what they deserve. The Pac12 is OVERRATED!!!
January 3rd, 2023 at 4:58 PM ^
The SEC has won 10 straight college football semifinal games. They are 10-1 all-time in the semis. They are 13-3 all-time in playoff games when facing a non-SEC team.
Folks can say what they will about "SEC bias", but their teams get the job done at the top-tier level.
January 3rd, 2023 at 5:07 PM ^
Well yeah, SEC get the best recruits. They do that because that’s where the best players are located, and they’re willing to do almost anything to get them. It’s not that complicated.
January 3rd, 2023 at 5:28 PM ^
Just stop.
January 4th, 2023 at 6:58 AM ^
Believe or not a lot good players come from Alabama, with their population growth the last 10-20 years.
January 3rd, 2023 at 5:18 PM ^
Yeah the fact of the matter is the CFP games are the only bowl games now where it's almost guaranteed everyone that can play will play and will go as hard as they can to win. I really don't put much stock in records in the other bowls anymore--too many significant players sitting out to get a good sense if the results mean anything.
January 3rd, 2023 at 5:27 PM ^
^^^^^^
This exactly. LSU beat a Purdue team playing without their starting QB and best receiver. Most bowl games are a crap shoot.
Edit: Alabama's three first round draft picks all played in their bowl game.
January 3rd, 2023 at 5:38 PM ^
Purdue's starting QB opting out was huge, but LSU was missing their top receiver and only 1 of their starting dline played (and Purdue had a db or 2 sitting out).
LSU was just a bad matchup for Purdue.
January 3rd, 2023 at 5:33 PM ^
I really don't put much stock in records
Here's another record.
JH is 1-6 in bowl games.
Let's see people rationalize that with the opt out excuses.
January 3rd, 2023 at 5:49 PM ^
Ok? What does that have to do with this thread? Personally though, I don't care at all about the 1-6 bowl record. I care only about the 0-2 CFP record, for which, of course, there are no opt out excuses.
January 3rd, 2023 at 9:41 PM ^
Same. I for one don’t give two shits about the losing bowl record outside of the 0-2 in the CFB. Losing non-playoff bowl games wouldn’t change my opinion of a coach any more than winning non-playoff bowl games
January 4th, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
Exactly. That 0-2 record is what should be looked at. Damn, that game Saturday night was worse than last years UGA beat down. I dont care what anyone says, they should not have lost to a first year playoff team with a first year coach that was an 8 point dog.
January 3rd, 2023 at 9:16 PM ^
Jim Harbaugh inherited a 5-7 team and has gone to the CFP twice. If the worst thing we can say is that he’s lost a few bowls (two of them national semifinals), that’s not bad.
January 3rd, 2023 at 7:25 PM ^
With the one-year exception of LSU, are we talking about the SEC, or are we talking about Alabama, and then Saban's protege going to Georgia and building the same thing there? I'm too lazy to look, but I can't remember any other SEC team in the playoff. And Joe Burrow, the best QB I've ever seen in college.
January 3rd, 2023 at 11:44 PM ^
EDIT: nevermind... I should look more closely at the stats before interjecting an opinion.
January 3rd, 2023 at 8:43 PM ^
NittanyFan nailed it. It's not "bias" if it's supported by evidence. The best SEC teams (been Bama, now UGA) have been a notch above the rest of the country for the past 2 decades. Clemson, of course, did manage to break through for a couple titles with elite D-line and QB play.
The one team that should have been competing with those SEC goliaths (based on recruiting, talent, resources, etc) has simply shit the bed a bunch of times - and that team, gladly, is OSU.
OSU has 2 national titles this century, but could easily have 5+. Perhaps beating up on a weaker B1G with no peer, like a strong UM now, left them unprepared to play the best of the best.
January 3rd, 2023 at 9:54 PM ^
The thing about the SEC's dominance is that it's 95% Saban and Saban's hand-picked protégé, then 2.5% Joe Burrow and 2.5% Cam Newton. Meyer proved he didn't need to be in the SEC to win. So I guess the SEC's recipe for success is: Be Saban/Meyer or their protégé's, or have a generational QB talent plus NFL wide receivers. I do think the SEC is more likely to luck into the latter, but it's a once in a decade thing and could absolutely happen at USC, Notre Dame, or Michigan under the right circumstances.
January 3rd, 2023 at 4:59 PM ^
It just means more when they say it means more, but trust them it does!
January 3rd, 2023 at 5:12 PM ^
It isn't just Alabama, Georgia is now carrying the load. LSU did their part in Orgeron's one glory season.
It doesn't matter who shows up from the SEC in the playoff, they usually win, so do the other ranked SEC teams in other bowl games.
January 3rd, 2023 at 6:20 PM ^
Yep, Auburn, Florida and even Tennessee all have semi-recent national championships as well.
January 3rd, 2023 at 8:45 PM ^
So many tigers.
January 3rd, 2023 at 8:45 PM ^
So many tigers.
January 3rd, 2023 at 8:48 PM ^
So many tigers.
January 3rd, 2023 at 5:04 PM ^
Can we stop using the AP & coaches polls when trying to perform meaningful analysis?
January 3rd, 2023 at 5:09 PM ^
This is based on the NCAA.com site which uses the CFP committee final rankings.
January 3rd, 2023 at 5:15 PM ^
Bowl slotting probably pays somewhat big role. If a conference has two teams in the playoffs, then you have potential mismatches in the lower bowls, like we had with LSU and Purdue this year. Also, the SEC record is probably driven down by the games where they played against each other in the playoffs.
January 3rd, 2023 at 5:37 PM ^
Purdue deserved this bowl based upon winning the West.
LSU had 4 loses this season. Including shitting the bed against a horrible TAMU.
I don't think this was a mismatch. Purdue's QB opting out was part of the difference.
January 3rd, 2023 at 5:45 PM ^
I agree - the B1G got more teams than the SEC into the CFP, but they both got 3 teams into the NYD6 Bowls as a whole.
The Citrus Bowl was a fair matchup: the SEC's 4th best versus the B1G's 4th best. Purdue won the West and they won at Maryland, the only other team with a claim to having the B1G's 4th best resume.
Even with O'Connell there, I don't think Purdue would have won. LSU was simply a better team, all the advanced metrics had them significantly better in the regular season.
January 3rd, 2023 at 5:19 PM ^
The B1G was 5-4, with 3 of those losses coming where the B1G team had the last possession of the game with a chance to win.
January 3rd, 2023 at 5:26 PM ^
Interesting analysis. I'm not sure if this counts as a caveat, but it's worth pointing out that by your championship-game-excluded definition, Alabama has not lost a bowl game since 2014 (which is just absurd). Non-Alabama CFP champions are Ohio State (B1G), Clemson 2x (ACC), LSU (SEC), and Georgia (SEC), meaning the ACC has won as many non-Alabama championships as the SEC has and the B1G is only one behind. Meanwhile Alabama alone has won the CPF three times (and played for 3 more!). So, when one notes that the SEC is the most dominant conference (e.g. in ranked bowl wins or championships won), how much is that a statement about the SEC as a whole, and how much is just a statement that Alabama has had an unprecedented run of dominance over college football, and Alabama happens to play in the SEC?
Edit: not fast enough. East German Judge already posted the picture.
January 3rd, 2023 at 5:27 PM ^
You never never ever root for ohio under any circumstances (even if your "friend" is Katherine Webb hot or something).
Full stop.
If Michigan were to run off 18 wins out of the next 20 against ohio, I'm not bemoaning the rivalry is diluted -- I'm saying good, fuck those cocksuckers.
Go Dawgs was the only acceptable answer on Saturday.
January 3rd, 2023 at 5:32 PM ^
Ditto. Someone who hoped OSU would beat Georgia is not "trueblue." That's axiomatic. Wolverine fans were in agony until the kick was shanked. Why would they want the Schmucks to win a natty, which is what would have happened had they won. There is such a thing as too much tolerance.
January 3rd, 2023 at 6:25 PM ^
Probably not too many Buckeye fans would have been saying that they would want us to win.
January 3rd, 2023 at 8:43 PM ^
He was just trying to, um, get with her.
I did that same thing once with an Ohio State hottie. I didn't mean it.
(Which is a good thing because I never did get with her.)
January 3rd, 2023 at 6:12 PM ^
I think what we probably want is a record against ranked teams.
January 3rd, 2023 at 6:42 PM ^
I think this has been understood for a long time. The top of the SEC is truly elite and with maybe 0-2 exceptions each year, generally a step above the rest of the country. The rest of the SEC has much less separation, if any, from the rest of the P5.
January 3rd, 2023 at 7:15 PM ^
Let's move the bowl games to the Midwest and check the records again in 5 years.
January 3rd, 2023 at 8:12 PM ^
I'm surprised that the SEC's record in bowl games isn't better, as many of these games are practically home games for them. I would love to see more important bowl games up north in domed stadiums, but most southerners freak out at the words 'snow flurries' and refuse to leave their houses and hotel rooms. They would want those games canceled if those two words were in the weather forecast.
January 3rd, 2023 at 8:40 PM ^
The top of the SEC really does step up in big games
That's what happens when you can recruit all those 5 stars. Stars matter.
Where would we be this year without our 5 stars - JJ, Edwards, and Johnson? Certainly not in the CFP.
January 3rd, 2023 at 9:10 PM ^
10 ranked games are Bama and Georgia
They are favored in 100% of their games not playing each other. Seems like an easy way to get a good record.