BCS simplified...

Submitted by GRFS11 on November 27th, 2011 at 8:31 PM

 

We need TWO out of these FIVE things to happen to make the top 14 (although if Georgia wins, we might not even get the at-large):

 

1) Pokes beat up on Sooners.  By a lot preferably.

2) Les Miles takes care of business and helps out his alma mater.

3) Little Bro hits puberty for a day and wins (or loses by a LOT, like 35 a lot).

4)  Boise has one of the biggest upsets ever and loses to New Mexico.  Ain't gonna happen.

5)  K St loses to ISU...also unlikely, but who knows.

 

At this point, I don't think we can count on losses by LSU, Houston, Okie St, Oregon, or Va Tech to put them below us.

 

[Edit:  added K St...sorry I forgot they were "good"]

Comments

Sckon

November 27th, 2011 at 8:41 PM ^

Some of the computers do not recompute until the end of the season. Hence the reason for Texas A and M being in the top 20 for some computers. There will be a big shift, so expect any questionable teams (South Carolina for instance) to drop significantly once the computers are allowed to recompute some of the inputs.

tonyum187

November 27th, 2011 at 8:39 PM ^

is the fact that the computers (judging from the recent experience) are style point favored. We didnt blow out Ohio. The reason the Big 12 and Pac 12 and SEC teams get favored is because of what they do to their opponents i.e. Ok St. blowing some team out by 50 points or LSU doing what they did to Arkansas...until we like Herbstreit and Craig James said play quality opponents and beat them convincingly we wont get those at large  bids. Finally, if we play in the Cap One bowl i would be happy with that...as long as we win...GO BLUE!!!

turd ferguson

November 27th, 2011 at 8:43 PM ^

This isn't correct (or even all that close to correct).  It's much more complicated and less certain than this.

One point on which we agree, though:  Michigan needs an LSU win next week.

bmacjr11

November 27th, 2011 at 8:44 PM ^

Agree with the OP to a point... However, I don't see a one-loss Houston being ranked ahead of Michigan.. That would mean they lose to So.Miss(which is possible).. That would be detrimental to them in every poll and ultimately the computers.. I am also not so sure a second loss in a row by okie st. would not drop them a ton.. But that is definitely a lot less probable. 100% agreed on whatever happens in these games, I hope none of them are close!!

UMLaw73

November 27th, 2011 at 8:45 PM ^

I'm glad people are now recognizing that the BCS does provide the same entertainment a "playoff" would!  I don't think we'd be talking now about these playoffs, nor would Michigan be in a playoff (if it was small)! People forget that, now a win at #14 will put us on the same level as the rest of the BCS winners, otherwise we might not even BE IN THE PLAYOFFS!

Doctor Wolverine

November 27th, 2011 at 9:12 PM ^

BIG DIFFERENCE!! In this "tournament" you speak of we don't have a shot at really winning anything more meaningful than playing in the sugar bowl BEFORE the BCS (ie just playing for respect and prestige). If there is a true 8 team playoff, all 8 top teams have a shot at a NC (obviously either way we are not and would not be playing for a NC, nor do we deserve to with the 2 losses we have). The other teams would still play in the other bowls they would normally play in anyway.

Jskohl88

November 27th, 2011 at 8:45 PM ^

I really think whichever team loses the B1G Championship will fall below us, regardless of who it is and the margin.

Just looking at the current standings, a 9-3 Nebraska, who defeated the currently 10-2 Sparty, is below them (and many other teams, but that's besides the point). My point here is that a team with more losses will fall below the team with less, regardless of the head-to-head result. So we don't necessarily HAVE to root for Sparty. I certainly won't. Root for LSU, and that should be enough. 

Bosch

November 27th, 2011 at 9:23 PM ^

unless you think that LSU only drops to #2 with a loss to Georgia.  No conference can get three teams in, unless the very unlikely scenerio that #1 and #2 didn't win the conference championship.

Michigan4Life

November 27th, 2011 at 8:47 PM ^

Michigan would need 3 of the 5 above happen next week in order to be ranked #14 provided Baylor beating Texas.  I think Baylor will jump Michigan with a win over Texas with ease based on the computer poll.

ek43

November 27th, 2011 at 8:57 PM ^

I really don't think it's this complicated. From what I can tell is just comes down to two games, the LSU-UG game and the Okie State-OU game. If georgia wins, we are out for sure.
<br> If LSU wins and Oklahoma state wins: we are in and OU is out.
<br>If LSU wins and OU wins:
<br>OU is automatically in and then It comes down to Mich vs a 2 loss Okie state team.
<br>We will or sure be in the top 14 after next week, no doubt. So the top 14 thing doesn't really matter at this point
<br>I think this is right if not someone correct me please

JDog72

November 27th, 2011 at 9:37 PM ^

Just read this from Mark Schlabach at ESPN.

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=ncfnation&id=54347

The No. 15 Badgers play No. 13 Michigan State in the inaugural Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis on Saturday. The losing team figures to drop out of the top 14 of the BCS standings, which would leave the winner as the only Big Ten team ranked in the top 14.

THE IMPORTANT PART:

Under BCS rules, a team must finish in the top 14 of the final BCS standings to be considered for a BCS at-large berth -- unless there's only one team from its conference in the top 14. So if only one Big Ten team finishes in the top 14 of the final BCS standings, Michigan could still receive an at-large bid as long as it finishes in the top 18.