BCS simplified...
We need TWO out of these FIVE things to happen to make the top 14 (although if Georgia wins, we might not even get the at-large):
1) Pokes beat up on Sooners. By a lot preferably.
2) Les Miles takes care of business and helps out his alma mater.
3) Little Bro hits puberty for a day and wins (or loses by a LOT, like 35 a lot).
4) Boise has one of the biggest upsets ever and loses to New Mexico. Ain't gonna happen.
5) K St loses to ISU...also unlikely, but who knows.
At this point, I don't think we can count on losses by LSU, Houston, Okie St, Oregon, or Va Tech to put them below us.
[Edit: added K St...sorry I forgot they were "good"]
November 27th, 2011 at 8:37 PM ^
I've seen it posted tons of times...but why exactly do the computers love the Big 12? I don't think they are a particularly strong conference.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:41 PM ^
only lost a couple of games total I believe.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:41 PM ^
They play nine conference games so considerably fewer total creampuffs on their schedules. And the computers having margin of victory eliminated means that schedule strength is pretty much everything. The Big 12 also didn pretty well in terms of winning non-conference games this year, if I remember right.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:41 PM ^
Some of the computers do not recompute until the end of the season. Hence the reason for Texas A and M being in the top 20 for some computers. There will be a big shift, so expect any questionable teams (South Carolina for instance) to drop significantly once the computers are allowed to recompute some of the inputs.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:53 PM ^
Where have you read this?
November 27th, 2011 at 8:37 PM ^
What is all this talk that Michigan State won't move behind us if they lose the Big 10 Championship Game?
November 27th, 2011 at 8:41 PM ^
Absolutely agree. MSU losing next weekend will drop them well below us. Even a close loss. There is a pretty big anti-Big Ten bias in the polls that has existed for a while. When we lose, even to good competition, we often drop 8 or 9 spots. When SEC teams lose, they drop about half that.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:31 PM ^
November 27th, 2011 at 9:02 PM ^
yea....the OP kind of butchered these
November 27th, 2011 at 9:06 PM ^
if MSU, by virtue of going to the Big Ten Championship game and losing, drops below a Michigan team that they beat soundly and therefore did not go to the Championship Game.
So having said that, I hope nobody minds if I root for Dantonio, Narduzzi & Co. to lose by 50.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:40 PM ^
I don't care who you root for, but if MSU loses, then Michigan's SOS takes a hit in the computers. If they win, then it goes up.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:37 PM ^
Don't forget Iowa State. Let's hope they can slay the dragon again.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:38 PM ^
I would also include KSU losing to ISU. Not likely, but since you included Boise losing to New Mexico, I thought I would include that.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:39 PM ^
Sparty ACTUAL B1G Champs..... Excuse me while I puke...Wait, ahh f**k it, no excuse needed.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:39 PM ^
is the fact that the computers (judging from the recent experience) are style point favored. We didnt blow out Ohio. The reason the Big 12 and Pac 12 and SEC teams get favored is because of what they do to their opponents i.e. Ok St. blowing some team out by 50 points or LSU doing what they did to Arkansas...until we like Herbstreit and Craig James said play quality opponents and beat them convincingly we wont get those at large bids. Finally, if we play in the Cap One bowl i would be happy with that...as long as we win...GO BLUE!!!
November 27th, 2011 at 8:42 PM ^
Not true. The computer rankings don't incorporate margin of victory. Style points only help with the "human" polls.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:05 PM ^
True but what I mean by it is the "human" poll play in to the computer rankings so does that not also mean the computers include margin of victory depending on how the human votes go?
November 27th, 2011 at 9:12 PM ^
The computers don't factor in the human votes. Otherwise the whole thing would be extremely redundant.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:40 PM ^
Delete.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:40 PM ^
will be ahead of a 3 loss MSU or Wisconsin team, even if that team loses in overtime. This is how the voters work.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:41 PM ^
You don't think a Houston loss will drop them below us?
November 27th, 2011 at 8:43 PM ^
A Houston loss would be pure joy.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:42 PM ^
Whoever looses will be behind us regardless.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:43 PM ^
I see no way that the loser btwn MSU and Wisc stays above us. Won't happen. This time next week we will be 14th.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:45 PM ^
It would be interesting to see where State would land if they lost (not taking into account the score). This is why the BCS is screwed up because it actually can be disadvantageous to be in the Championship game.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:43 PM ^
This isn't correct (or even all that close to correct). It's much more complicated and less certain than this.
One point on which we agree, though: Michigan needs an LSU win next week.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:44 PM ^
November 27th, 2011 at 8:45 PM ^
I'm glad people are now recognizing that the BCS does provide the same entertainment a "playoff" would! I don't think we'd be talking now about these playoffs, nor would Michigan be in a playoff (if it was small)! People forget that, now a win at #14 will put us on the same level as the rest of the BCS winners, otherwise we might not even BE IN THE PLAYOFFS!
November 27th, 2011 at 9:00 PM ^
I can't tell if your post is sarcastic or not.........I'm just going to assume that it is.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:12 PM ^
BIG DIFFERENCE!! In this "tournament" you speak of we don't have a shot at really winning anything more meaningful than playing in the sugar bowl BEFORE the BCS (ie just playing for respect and prestige). If there is a true 8 team playoff, all 8 top teams have a shot at a NC (obviously either way we are not and would not be playing for a NC, nor do we deserve to with the 2 losses we have). The other teams would still play in the other bowls they would normally play in anyway.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:45 PM ^
I really think whichever team loses the B1G Championship will fall below us, regardless of who it is and the margin.
Just looking at the current standings, a 9-3 Nebraska, who defeated the currently 10-2 Sparty, is below them (and many other teams, but that's besides the point). My point here is that a team with more losses will fall below the team with less, regardless of the head-to-head result. So we don't necessarily HAVE to root for Sparty. I certainly won't. Root for LSU, and that should be enough.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:45 PM ^
November 27th, 2011 at 8:48 PM ^
No, most of the computers have not readjusted the conferences. When they do, the Big 12 will dip a bit.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:52 PM ^
November 27th, 2011 at 8:52 PM ^
People need to understand this. Baylor could jump over us if they win. This would put everything in a tail spin.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:45 PM ^
An LSU win is the only must have, or else SEC gets three teams in BCS. The rest will take care of itself.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:23 PM ^
unless you think that LSU only drops to #2 with a loss to Georgia. No conference can get three teams in, unless the very unlikely scenerio that #1 and #2 didn't win the conference championship.
November 27th, 2011 at 11:56 PM ^
As much as I hate to say it, it is not that unlikely of a scenario (other than the Georgia winning part).
November 27th, 2011 at 8:45 PM ^
If Baylor beat Texas by a lot, they could jump us in the rankings. I hope this doesn't happen.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:48 PM ^
At the end of the first half Saturday. He didn't return. If he doesn't play, Baylor is in big trouble.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:50 PM ^
ESPN says probable
November 27th, 2011 at 8:45 PM ^
So, extra simplified:
We these two things to happen:
1. LSU beats Georgia
2A. Wisc beats MSU by a ton
2B. MSU beats Wisc
2C. OSU beats Oklahoma
November 27th, 2011 at 8:48 PM ^
I think all we need is a Georgia loss
November 27th, 2011 at 8:54 PM ^
What if Baylor beats Texas?
November 27th, 2011 at 8:47 PM ^
Michigan would need 3 of the 5 above happen next week in order to be ranked #14 provided Baylor beating Texas. I think Baylor will jump Michigan with a win over Texas with ease based on the computer poll.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:48 PM ^
they are way up in computers right now.
November 27th, 2011 at 8:57 PM ^
I really don't think it's this complicated. From what I can tell is just comes down to two games, the LSU-UG game and the Okie State-OU game. If georgia wins, we are out for sure.
<br> If LSU wins and Oklahoma state wins: we are in and OU is out.
<br>If LSU wins and OU wins:
<br>OU is automatically in and then It comes down to Mich vs a 2 loss Okie state team.
<br>We will or sure be in the top 14 after next week, no doubt. So the top 14 thing doesn't really matter at this point
<br>I think this is right if not someone correct me please
November 27th, 2011 at 9:21 PM ^
What if Clemson beats VT? I almost think they'd have a better chance of jumping us after that than Baylor would if they beat UT.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:37 PM ^
Just read this from Mark Schlabach at ESPN.
http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=ncfnation&id=54347
The No. 15 Badgers play No. 13 Michigan State in the inaugural Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis on Saturday. The losing team figures to drop out of the top 14 of the BCS standings, which would leave the winner as the only Big Ten team ranked in the top 14.
THE IMPORTANT PART:
Under BCS rules, a team must finish in the top 14 of the final BCS standings to be considered for a BCS at-large berth -- unless there's only one team from its conference in the top 14. So if only one Big Ten team finishes in the top 14 of the final BCS standings, Michigan could still receive an at-large bid as long as it finishes in the top 18.