THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

We haven't had an update on Isaiah Livers, who exited the Presbyterian game with a muscle strain in what appeared to be his upper groin. There's no need to rush Livers back for this game regardless of the severity of his injury. I'd expect Brandon Johns, who missed the Presbyterian game with an illness but was on the bench in street clothes, to start in his place.

UPDATE: The update isn't what you'd hope.

Per Michigan, Isaiah Livers is out indefinitely with a groin injury. No timetable for his return. Big blow for U-M as Big Ten play is set to restart soon.

— Brendan Quinn (@BFQuinn) December 27, 2019

Juwan Howard said he isn't sure of a starting lineup yet but mentioned Livers's absence is an opportunity for Johns and Colin Castleton.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

Seth noted while putting this together that, while not all UML players had 247 pages, those that did tended to be listed a couple inches shorter than they are on the current roster. Take that for what it's worth. This team is already quite small, especially since starting "center" Josh Gantz's status is up in the air.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

There's an asterisk on UMass Lowell's record because they'll either be 7-7 or 6-8—most likely the latter, given their 27% win probability at Loyola MD, according to KenPom—by the time this game tips off. [Update: they lost by 12.] For the second time this season, the River Hawks are playing a road game two days before playing another road game against a power conference opponent; the first time around, Ohio State led UML by as much as 31 before a late rally cut the final margin to 20.

UML entered the season with one player taller than 6'7". Here's the latest on that player:

UMass Lowell sophomore forward Darius Henderson is leaving the program. The 6-foot-9 Henderson is from California and started 4 games for UML this season.

— Matt Langone (@MattLangone) December 19, 2019

So that's not great. Henderson's replacement, 6'7", 215-pound senior Josh Gantz, is both not at all a center—he's averaging 9.0 points and 3.3 rebounds—and possibly not playing for reasons I cannot track down. Gantz didn't play in last Saturday's loss to Boston U. and is listed as a backup in the team's game notes for Loyola MD.

The player who spends more time in the paint anyway is 6'7", 195-pound freshman Connor Withers, who has the profile of an inside-outside power forward but is really struggling (3/20) from beyond the arc. Withers was easily the team's most efficient player against Ohio State, scoring ten points on nine shot equivalents with four offensive rebounds, two assists, four steals, and three fouls in 31 minutes. It's worth noting, though, that OSU's big men all had efficient, productive outings that game.

Their best player is wing Christian Lutete, who's tasked with a great deal—despite being listed at 6'5", he leads the team in rebounding at 8.5 per game in addition to averaging 19.3 points, also a team high. He's most effective in transition, as a spot-up shooter, or off putbacks; his effectiveness drops significantly when he has to create for himself in halfcourt play. Guard Obidiah Noel is more of a scoring threat off the dribble and a more willing passer.

Point guard Jordyn Owens has had trouble scoring when not getting to the line, and while he's dished out a respectable 40 assists, those have come with a concerning 29 turnovers.

If Gantz is unable to play for whatever reason, UML appears inclined to go small; they inserted 6'3" freshman guard Ron Mitchell, another player who's shot poorly from the field, into the starting lineup against Boston and played him 39 minutes despite his 4-for-13 shooting. If Gantz doesn't play, this team essentially goes seven deep, and that could spell serious trouble coming off one day of rest.

UPDATE: Gantz didn't appear in Friday night's loss to Loyola. 6'7", 205-pound sophomore Allin Blunt started and played 22 minutes, while Mitchell played 31 minutes off the bench.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

While UML's defense is awful, their offense is almost exactly average for a D-I program. They look to get shots up relatively early in the clock, ranking 65th in average possession length. They're not very good shooters, particularly from beyond the arc, but they're a legitimately good rebounding team despite being a squad of lilliputians. We'll see if that holds up; OSU is the only team UML has faced ranked inside the top 175 on KenPom.

THE KEYS

Defend the E-Line. Henderson was one of three UML players with a dunk this year. Now only two remain: Noel (the primary threat with nine dunks) and Mitchell (two). The player guarding Noel must remain vigilant. This is of utmost importance.

Keep your groins healthy. Also any other muscles, joints, ligaments, bones, and what-have-you.

Get Luke Wilson a bucket. NTLW is 0-for-6 from the field this season and 0-for-10 in his 15 career appearances. He had a couple close calls against Presbyterian. It's time. 

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 22.

They're so smol.