Hoops Preview: Indiana 2022-23, Part Two
THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT | #42 Michigan (17-13, 11-8 Big Ten) vs #29 Indiana (20-10, 11-8 Big Ten) |
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|---|---|---|
| WHERE | Assembly Hall Bloomington, IN |
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| WHEN | 4:30 Sunday | |
| THE LINE | Kenpom: IU -4 Torvik: IU -4 |
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| TELEVISION | CBS |
THE OVERVIEW
Well. Welp. Zach Shaw tweeted out yesterday that Michigan had lost five games this year with an 80%+ second-half win percentage at some point, and your author could only emit a heavy sigh, like a dwarf observing some shoddy mining practices. The double-OT loss against Illinois was a microcosm of the season, with a lot of good stuff getting entirely canceled out by missed rotations, bad box-outs, and inexplicable offensive heroball. Then the Coin of Randomness was flipped and Michigan continued getting the finger from the universe in general. Luck, per Kenpom: 306th.
Michigan still has their shot, though. Indiana's more or less where Illinois is when it comes to the tournament and the efficiency margins. The Hoosiers won by one point in Crisler. Beating them on the road would at least give Michigan a shot to make it into the tourney with a win or two in the Big Ten tournament. Lose, and it's NIT time short of a run to the title game.
The tournament starts tomorrow for Michigan.
THE US
Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:
No changes.
THE LINEUP CARD
Seth's graphic [click for big]:
THE THEM
As per usual with return games we refer you to the first preview for an overview of opposition personnel. Updates/omissions from the first piece:
- Jordan Geronimo, who started and played 21 minutes for Indiana in the first matchup, has receded to the deep bench, with a total of 20 minutes in Indiana's last five, including a DNP their most recent outing against Iowa. He was in a walking boot prior to the Iowa game and may or may not be available.
- Xavier Johnson, who's been out since mid-December, was ruled out for Iowa but may play in this game.
- Race Thompson, who missed the first game, returned to the starting lineup immediately after and has been playing a bit more than 20 MPG. He remains Race Thompson.
- Trayce Jackson-Davis has increased his astounding pace from the first game. he's using 33% of Indiana possessions and has an assist rate near 30; he's in the top ten in the league in OREBs, DREBs, assists, blocks, fouls drawn, and FT rate. If not for Zach Edey he would be your runaway POY.
- Jalen Hood-Schifino continues to oscillate wildly, from a 38% usage, 35-point, Kenpom MVP performance in a win against Purdue to 8 points and a 64 ORTG the next game against defensively inept Iowa. I'm not sure Michigan's defense against JHS matters as much as the phase of the moon.
THE TEMPO FREE
Conference numbers:
IU continues to knock down threes at a high clip while taking astoundingly few of them. 24% of IU attempts are from behind the arc, last in the conference. That would be third from last nationally if that was their season number; instead they are a robust 354th.
Not a whole lot stands out otherwise. IU is generally good in all drill-down defensive categories except steals; they are just kind of eh offensively and they rely a lot on transition to help out.
THE KEYS
Hood-Schifino randomness. Opponents don't seem to have much impact on what the 6'6" pull-up specialist puts up. Last game Michigan gave up too many points trying to challenge his pretty much unchallengable jumpers and ate some dunks as a cost. I'd hope that they just live with whatever he does, because most of the time it's not that efficient.
Effort level. Flat out, this is one of the least watchable Michigan basketball teams of the last decade because they get hammered on various effort plays like boxing out, seem to get it right, and then revert. Ty Rodgers, a no-shoot burlywing, obliterated Michigan with a 6/9 performance from the floor with five offensive rebounds. He crushed future NBA player Jett Howard. That's more on Howard than anyone else. Does this team care to make the tournament or not?
Can anyone else do anything at all? Howard, Bufkin, and Dickinson had all but 18 Michigan points in a double OT game. Will Tschetter had 0, Tarris Reed 3, Terrance Williams 6, and Joey Baker 0 despite getting four clean looks from three. Offensively Michigan's three stars did enough to win but got almost literally no help from the rest of the roster.
Minimize Indiana transition. A quarter of IU shots are in the first ten seconds of the clock, and their eFG drops seven points in the halfcourt.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Indiana by four.
if we're being objective about it, jett deserves a 'disaster factory' symbol for his defense.
the good news about the bad news of how jett's played for parts of this year, despite being supremely talented, is that the chances of him staying another year are hopefully greater. there is no lack of ability, it's a lack of discipline and/or grit on defense. one more year at camp sanderson, one more year of maturity that we all gained from at that age, and he would play himself into a lottery pick for certain.
I can't say I've seen a Michigan player with less energy/focus/interest (whatever it is) in playing defense or rebounding than him despite being 6'8" and pretty athletic. He always seems to be watching the PG dribbling while his guy runs around a screen and doesn't go after rebounds or loose balls.
I have two wo for you: Antoine Joubert. Dude ate himself from shooting guard to small forward in 4 years at Michigan. Oh course, playing for Bill Freider would drive a lot of people towards stress eating.
Joubert was the black hole of offense killing bad shots and played cement footed matador defense.
Frieder lived up to playing time promises he never should have made. But Joubert was the big name recruit the everyone wanted.
He's a top 20 pick no matter what cause of his shooting and athleticism. If he doesn't have the mentality to care about his defense this year, I highly doubt he'll have the mentality to come back to work on defense.
then by what miracle will he 'care about his defense' in the NBA, especially when he's never been serious about playing it and he'll be going against guys that are all as athletic as he is?
reflecting on my own youth (think: riding mastadons to school) i know i sure grew up a ton at those ages and i'd like to think mostly for the better. better discipline, focus, maturity in general, and many other things.
It would not require a miracle. In the NBA he either learns defense or he doesn't get playing time. No intelligent GM would avoid drafting him just because he ball-watches a lot.
Yeah, he's likely to get drafted because offensively he's been even better than advertised but I would point out that his aggressiveness going toward the rim has waned a bit in the second half of the year. He's attempted 195 3 pointers to 116 twos and 71 FTs. Yes he's reasonably efficient at those outside shots but, by comparison, Bufkin is almost flipped those shooting ratios while still being efficient from outside. And so if Howard is defaulting to Just A Shooter and he's lackadaisical on defense that might give some GMs pause.
I still doubt he comes back unless his dad basically convinces him to do a favor, but every year there's a guy or two that we hear a out being a lottery lock and then drops as more people poke at his game.
This was well said. and just to add on;
Bufkin developed in year 2 (as almost all less than the top elite players do). Jett is a rookie and injured in a key stretch. Bronx, also correct, he will be drafted most likely in the fringe lottery to the 20some range. No team picking that high has the will or time for intense developing. According to a lot of NBA scouts there are two issues to Jett's game, Ability to create his own shot and defense.
If there were ever an example of a player that should use another season to craft his skill, it's this one. Bufkin IMO is more NBA ready than Jett. I'm almost positive Juwan will have that talk with him.
Athleticism?
Is he really that athletic though? Especially for someone who isn't ever going to have the size to be a plus rebounder? He's not that quick and he's not that explosive going up to dunk. I genuinely think Stauskas was a more violent dunker in his time at Michigan than anything we've seen Jett do.
Here's hoping for strong effort all around.
Whoa, where is the picture?
This is quite shocking. Two Indiana previews this season without the photo.
Flat out, this is one of the least watchable Michigan basketball teams of the last decade because they get hammered on various effort plays like boxing out, seem to get it right, and then revert. Ty Rodgers, a no-shoot burlywing, obliterated Michigan with a 6/9 performance from the floor with five offensive rebounds. He crushed future NBA player Jett Howard. That's more on Howard than anyone else.
Thank you for that.
Yeah, that's sort of been the observation all year. Games against Rutgers, MSU, and Wisconsin combined for 14 ORs allowed; in this game alone it was 12. I do think a lot of these guys care and work hard to rebound and defend, but Jett in particular simply doesn't box out hard or stay with balls. He's a young guy and I don't want to drag him too much but he's probably Michigan's 3rd-best offensive option and worst starting defender and that's certainly not helped in some of these close games.
This game has put us out of our misery vibes to it
Michigan doesn't need much help offensively from anyone else (6 from T will is fine, 6-8 from Dug is fine). Baker needs to hit at least 1 three per 8 minutes of game time. Michigan doesn't want those guys having high usage. In fact, Dug needs to take fewer twos. Like literally nothing inside of ten feet.
Usage should be pushed heavily towards Dickinson and Bufkin so I would argue that scoring should be even more unbalanced. Kobe needs to be closer to 30% usage than he's been.
They also scored plenty to beat Illinois. Need to play better defense and rebound.
Michigan doesn't need much help offensively from anyone else (6 from T will is fine, 6-8 from Dug is fine). Baker needs to hit at least 1 three per 8 minutes of game time. Michigan doesn't want those guys having high usage. In fact, Dug needs to take fewer twos. Like literally nothing inside of ten feet.
Usage should be pushed heavily towards Dickinson and Bufkin so I would argue that scoring should be even more unbalanced. Kobe needs to be closer to 30% usage than he's been.
They also scored plenty to beat Illinois. Need to play better defense and rebound.
Illinois was a malpractice in coaching defense. You tell all but 2 guys (Mayer and ?) to back up when they drive. They are looking to get within 2 feet of the hole and you want them shooting long twos. Drive after drive were are tight up on them at 20 feet like they are Kevin Durant or Rip Hamilton. Identify who you are playing and back up and lock out the key first and foremost. Quit chasing them around like a damn AND1 professor mix tape.
Never understand HD playing close to the vest on the perimeter and then leaving his feet on a pump fake 3. It happens every game and it almost always gives up an easy layup.
I recall Rodgers scoring on Kobe a few times, too. But that’s primarily because he outweighs Kobe by ~40 pounds. Michigan refused to adjust to Illinois’ size and got punished as a result. Perhaps the offense was better because we kept our best scoring lineup in the game.
Asking Joey to come in cold and start knocking down threes isn’t fair to him. He only played 11 minutes against Illinois and never got in the flow of the game. This, after contributing 82 minutes in three big wins. In the 3 recent losses with Jett playing, Joey logged 36 minutes. (Jett averages 3.6 rebounds per 40 minutes to Joey’s 5.6. Jett is at .369 from 3 to Joey’s .378.)
Terrence reverted back to bad TWill (-14 in ~20 minutes,) but Illinois is a bad matchup for him especially when he’s asked to play the 4. He’s much better as a hustle, Re(bound)-and-D guy. He has the body to matchup with Rodgers, but we were stuck putting Kobe on him because Dug sat 3 minutes total.
I get it, there are roster limitations, but Kobe at the 1, Joey 2, TWill 3, Tarris 4 and HD at the 5 plays very well together.
I think the conversation about being on the bubble has been backwards. They need to beat Indiana to have a reasonable hope of dancing? Well, I don’t think the team has any business dancing if we feel they can’t beat a good team on the road.
If they win, they deserve the bubble talk because they did something to deserve it. If they lose, I won’t be crushed about their tourney chances because what do we realistically believe they’ll do if they get invited anyway?
Damn same time as the final round of the Arnold Palmer.
The API has a nice leaderboard as well. I'll be watching the replay for sure. I don't miss to many final rounds of golf, but Michigan always takes center stage for me over anything entertainment wise. Plus my family would kick my ass if I put golf on over the M game.
The entirety of the debate with regard to Michigan's team this year is about Jett Howard. My take: He's fine for a freshman, but not ready to lead the team or to play in the NBA. I hope he comes back next year and leaves Michigan with a successful career under his belt and great opportunity in the NBA. He's fine, but the basketball ecosystem is perilous.
Xavier Johnson won't play again this season, just announced today. Without him IU doesn't have quick guards, which gives Michigan some mismatches. Senior night in Btown, if you're looking for intangibles.
Basketball is a simple game. It doesn’t require trendy, so-called “advanced” stats to understand. These preview graphics are chocked full of nothing.
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