The Wolverines appear to be in the midst of a late season defensive turnaround during the last two weeks, coming in at #54 in Torvik's Adjusted Defensive Efficiency metric during that span after facing Kenpom's #1 offensive team twice along with an OSU team that checks in at #8 in the country. Not earth-shattering stuff, but it is a noteworthy uptick considering the competition level and how low the standard was coming into February. 

Assuming Michigan continues its trend as an above-average level defense, how exactly can the Wolverines secure a tournament bid without feeling nervous on selection Sunday? The answer to that question may very well come down to whether the team can make good on Juwan Howard's scheme. 

Torvik has the Wolverines at #18 nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the season. But filtering that metric to the aforementioned four games exclusively, the Wolverines are only at #41. The considerable offensive decline was a bit baffling given that Purdue is #101 in Adjusted Defense and OSU is #88.

So I decided to take a deep-dive into Michigan's offense against OSU to get a feel for the reasons behind the decline. The answer was quite obvious. Juwan Howard ran circles around Holtmann, but the team left a lot of points on the board.

AT THE RIM

Coach Howard did an outstanding job attacking a blitz/switch heavy OSU defense early on. As you can see in the clip above, Michigan got easy buckets by having Diabate slip ballscreens and getting him matched up against smaller defenders.

At the end of the first half, the leading man for Michigan hunted a weak defender in Ahrens by forcing him to fight through screens, which generated multiple layups. 

The Wolverines scored 5 buckets at the rim as a direct result of scheme wins.

The problem? Michigan was not able to take advantage of 5 additional opportunities at the rim either by missing point blank layups or making miscues via poor reads/unforced turnovers. Let's examine each.

In the clip below, Juwan dials up Spain PnR, with an additional wrinkle. Instead of getting the ball to Dickinson on the roll or the post-up, Diabate then sets a downscreen for Eli. Brooks gains a clear advantage through this action and has a wide open layup at the rim. Miss.

In our second clip, the Wolverines run the double-stagger series but with a weakside wrinkle. Eli sets a flare screen for Houstan as Jones turns the corner. Caleb gets the ball against a scrambling OSU defense after Liddell/Branham botch the switch. Another scheme win. Houstan attacks the botched switch and kicks-out to Brooks. Eli is attacking a closeout against a slower wing in Brown and gets a wide open layup. Miss. 

Next we have sheer brilliance from the coaching staff in a very subtle tweak captured below. Michigan once again turns to Spain PnR. Juwan Howard has Jones reject the screen + Hunter takes an inner path on the roll (as opposed to rolling wide/outside the paint).

Changing the roll path for Dickinson functionally clears out the strong side since two OSU defenders are worried about Hunter scoring on the roll. The result is DeVante with a wide open driving lane to the basket with no help defense to worry about. Another miss. 

More offensive acumen on display from Juwan Howard below. Michigan is set up in their base Pistol Action set. Instead of Eli using the Dickinson ballscreen, Coach Howard attacks the OSU tendency to blitz ballscreens and simply uses Hunter as a decoy to get Jones an open look. The open look is there, only DeVante is set up out of bounds as he receives the pass in what would've been a wide open waltz to the rim.

Finally, Michigan runs another outstanding action in the clip below with no results to show for it. Brooks sets a backscreen for Moussa while Dickinson sets a backscreen for Brooks in the immediate aftermath. Hunter screening on the perimeter is purposeful.........it sucks the rim protection out as Diabate is diving to the basket. Caleb Houstan is the designated playmaker in this set. The first option is Moussa on the dive, while Eli curling around is the alternative. As you can see below, Diabate is wide open and Caleb has eyes on him but doesn't pull the trigger. Instead, he opts for option two, but there is no advantage. The Wolverines settle for a Hunter post-up that gets blocked. Another miss. 

Only being able to cash-in on five of the ten scheme wins at the rim is simply not going to do it considering the quality of the looks/advantage created. That ratio needs to hover around 80% in order for Michigan to click on all cylinders offensively.

[AFTER THE JUMP, the perimeter looks]

From The Perimeter

Michigan was able to make good on some scheme wins from distance. Eli Brooks, in particular, was able to connect on a few catch + shoot triples off flare screen as captured above. 

But there were points left on the board from three as well. Juwan Howard with another impeccable set below as Terrance Williams sets a ghost screen from the what looks like a base double stagger look that has OSU completely fooled. 

Next, we have the full genius of Juwan Howard on display. Michigan has double-stagger ready to go but Coach Howard notices OSU in a 2-3 zone so he calls an audible. He has Moussa flash to the FT line with Dickinson sucking in the corner defender, while Houstan shifts to the corner to buy more real estate. Wide open 3. 

Cashing in on 2/4 scheme wins from distance isn't bad at the college level. But on a macro level, going 7/14 on scheme wins isn't good enough. Some of this is inevitably a lack of talent from our perimeter personnel, but even adjusting expectations for that, the Wolverines should have a 65-75% hit rate on the aggregate when including threes when the looks are that wide open.

The ability for the Wolverines to make good on the scheme may very well determine Michigan's tournament chances as we head down the stretch.