My 2010 UM Prediction UPDATED
Ok. I don't think I will make many friends with the post, but it's a boring time of year and at least it could be fun.
I should start out by saying that my first prediction is that Rich Rod will be fired after this year and Captain Comeback Jim Harbaugh will come in on a white horse and attempt to lead the largest comeback of his career. The underlying rationale for my season prediction is your defense. I expect that regardless of the QB, UM will score some points and have an above average offense in the Big Ten. However, I am not buying that a defense that has been flat out awful in RRod's first two years will somehow get betting losing Brandon Graham and D. Warren. I am not buying the Will Campbell Kool-Aid. I think Mike Martin is your only "proven" plus player on defense. I think and Craig Roh are proven "serviceable" Big Ten players. I don't mean servicable in a bad way, I mean in it a "you can count on them way". I see Floyd, Ezeh, as Kovacs "minus" players and the rest as ?????.
This is not meant to be a flame either, just a sobering perspective from an outsider not looking at things thru maize and blue glasses. If I turn out to be wrong, I will come back and face the music.
Without further ado,
Uconn - Loss - (0-1) I'm sure when this game was put on the schedule, it was supposed to be a nice appetizer for a traditionally powerful UM as a tuneup for the Notre Dame game. Instead, this game is a legitimate toss up. I don't know the early line, but I suspect it will be within a FG either way. UConn returns a ton of starters from a team that beat USC (not that USC) in their bowl game last year. UConn is not flashy, but they have a solid team and a solid coach. I expect talk radio to be going crazy following this one.
@ Notre Dame - Loss - (0-2) I know Michigan won this game last year, but I thought Notre Dame actually was the better team that day (I realize I may be in the minority with that opinion). I also think that Brian Kelly is a damn fine coach. Notre Dame will be breaking in a new QB, but they still have Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph to ease the transition. Had anyone heard of Tony Pike before Brian Kelly? Kelly also won the Big East with 3 different starting QB's three years ago. He will have his offense ready and the game is in South Bend. I expect a similar shootout, will the home team pulling it out again.
Umass - Win -(1-2).
Bowling Green - Win - (2-2).
@ Indiana - Win - (3-2, 1-0) So, the rabid dogs are still rabid, but have been pacified by blowout wins over inferior opponents. Now hope is renewed with the Big Ten opener. I DO NOT think this game will be easy, as UM cannot just rubber stamp any big ten road game having lost @ Illinois last year. Also, Indiana put up a fight in the Big House last year. With that said, I expect Michigan to have too much offense for Indy to hang with and Michigan to pull away late and win by 7-14 points.
MSU - Loss - (3-3, 1-1) Like the Angel of the Big House, I too believe that this will be the biggest game of the Rich Rod era to date. Under my scenerio, the natives will be restless having lost to Uconn and Notre Dame. However, a win against MSU and Rich Rod would be 2-0 in the Big Ten and the momentum meter would be pointing in the right direction. Alternatively, a 3rd straight loss to f'ing MSU and Rich Rod may be facing an in-season dismissal. I know some do not consider MSU a rival, but I think that position is ridiculous. I understand and acknowledge that we may not be your 1st or 2nd rival, but I just don't believe any UM fan that claims he/she would not be stinging from a 3rd straight loss to MSU more so than say Illinois, Wiscy, Iowa or Minny.
Back to the game.....I think we are a better football team than UM. Sorry for that opinion. I'm sure UM fans look at last year's game and say we needed OT to win at home. I tend to look at the first 3.5 quarters of the game and see total domination. I'm not saying my opinion is correct, but I guess we will find out in October. I think our offense, while not the spread, will be dynamic this year. We have multiply playmakers at WR, a strong stable of TE's and I'm expecting an improvement from our true freshman RB's. OL is the only concern on offense. I acknowlege it is a large concern. Any any event, I predict an MSU win and this loss will probably be the one that signifies the end of the Rich Rod era
Iowa - Loss (3-4, 1-2) - Iowa is a team that seems to play better on the road. Their defense will be nasty and I think Clayborn is one of the top 2 defensive players in the Big Ten. For the record, I don't think Greg Jones is No. 1. That award goes to Clayborn/Heyward IMO. Anyways, I think Iowa is good. They don't seem to blow anybody out, but I think they will win.
@ PSU - Loss - (3-5, 1-3) - I always take the position that good defense beats good offense. I think PSU will struggle to break in a new QB, but playing at Happy Valley, I think Newsome (or whoever wins the job) just needs to be ok to win. PSU dismantled UM last year (us too) and this year the game is at home.
Illinois - Win - (4-5, 2-3) - I think this is the year you slay the Illinois dragon. I think they will absolutely blow this year. No Benn, Zook can't coach, game in Ann Arbor. UM gets an easy win here.
@ Purdue - Loss - (4-6, 2-4) - I know I am not making any friends and I do think Danny Hope is a prick, but playing @ Purdue was never easy even for the good Michigan teams. I see 3 straight losses to Purdue in Rich Rod's future. Another reason for his dismissal.
Wiscy - Win - (5-6, 3-4) - Playing to save Rich's job, I think you guys pull this one out. But too little too late.
@ OSU - Win - (5-7, 3-5) - Beat OSU maybe keep your job is the rallying cry for this one, but it aint happening. OSU's defense is great and Pryor is getting better. This day will sting, but at least it will bring an end to the RRod era and healing/re-birth can begin.
[mod edit: he would like to add the following. he made it a separate post but no need]
Gents,
I see I ruffled some feathers. Not my intent. I do find it funny that predicting 5-7 is somehow crazy and automatic troll.
For the record, I had a typo. Martin was my plus player. RVB and Roh were my solid players.
Also, just because a guy is a starter does not make them a "plus" player IMO.
We've had plenty of 2-3 year starters that were not plus players.
I've read enough about Ezeh to conclude he is not a plus player, no matter how many years he started.
Also, seasons RARELY go by the chalk. So yes, losing to purdue but beating Wiscy dosn't make sense on paper, but isn't that what happened in 2008?
Like I said, I will be back when the dust settles. If you guys go 8-4, I'll come back and say I was wrong. So nobody on this board thinks 5-7 is possible? Wow.
Take care,
Still RationalMSUfan
With this logic, I'm surprised he picked wins for the games against UMass and Bowling Green....
this is an MSU fan predicting a bad season for Michigan and UM loss to MSU? Man, this really is not your typical MSU fan, is it?
the only rational spartans in the world are the ones that gave birth to me.
I hate the off-season.
that he tries (and fails) to dissect our defense and explain why it will be bad but then completely ignores any mention of his own team's defense (aka Greg Jones and 10 dudes) which may have just as many question marks as ours.
the OL is a concern but
THEY HAVE A DYNAMIC OFFENSE! BUY A NEW COUCH MA! WE'RE BURNIN THIS ONE IN E LANSING TONIGHT WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-EEEEEEEEEEEE!...will realize:
Holy shit this is awesome.
Is it too late to change the 2010 student section t-shirt? Either way I will have a t-shirt with this on it before next season.
This post is a joke, right? I mean, you aren't really serious about this, your RCMB friends put you up to it, etc. If you are actually serious about this post, you are in for a rude awakening soon. MSU could easily implode if Saint Dantonio doesn't either get rid of or regain control of the less-than-ethical subculture that exists among a large portion of "his" team.
You are way off on this one, but I think you have probably nailed MSU's record with your post.
horrendous post is where he attempts to over-inflate the importance of MSU. A loss to MSU and RR faces an in-season dismissal?
ROFL
Seriously? There is absolutely no scenario in which a loss to MSU (standing alone) is even grounds for an end-of-season dismissal, let alone an in-season one. Among the many, many flaws in your reasoning is that Brandon has stated repeatedly that he intends to judge RR on the body of his work--not a single game. An in-season dismissal for any reason flies in the face of this.
Last but not least, we just don't care that much about you guys. I'm sorry. Sure, you are a rival. 1 of 3, ranking third. Unlike you, the MSU game is not the only game on our schedule. The disconnect from the way the two fanbases approach this game - truly - is fucking hilarious.
EPINION!!!
And you take back what you said about Barwis earlier. TAKE IT BACK!!!
How did a kool-aid drinking MSU fan get enough points to post something like that? Magnus is going to go ape-sh** when he reads that Free Press Special.
...internet vitriol. Can't wait until actual football gets played.
to a game of NCAA 2010 RIGHT NOW so I can prove RR is a good coach
You should let me play him. I was ranked as high as 72 online last year. And yes, I am a no life loser.
When the OP was born the doctor should have slapped everone in the room.
I predict that while the 2010 season is unpredictable, we act as though it were (was?) predictable when it is over.
i KNEW you were going to post this
I knew you were going to respond with that!!
this game was tomorrow and not 4 months from now.
Michigan returns 75% of their starters but isn't going to improve?
I'm with you on this one. Just about every MSU fan that I talk to, assumes that Sparty will get better and everyone else will stay the same or get worse. This MSU team will be 6-6 again. The team last year went 6-6 in the regular season and were 1-4 against the 5 teams with winning records that they played. They also didn't play OSU. They will be lucky to have a 6-6 record again this year. They had a pass efficiency defense that was rated 101st in the country last season, but our defense is the one that will blow? Also, that talented offense that they had last year didn't manage a passing TD vs. our "horrible" D last year.
I truly believe that UM has the potential to blow this team out. I also believe that, given the chance, Rich Rod will bury Dantonio. Make no mistake about it. UM wants to beat these guys bad!
I trust one thing about this upcoming season - RR is going to run the score up as much as possible against MooU...and I'm not even a RR supporter. I hope it's so ugly that tears fall in all Lansing cell blocks.
Don't worry, we'll make room for ya on the RR bandwagon before the season is done.
I'm a fan of the team. the team. the team. I was born maize & blue - no bandwagon will ever be necessary for me.
If an element of the team is not performing up to Michigan standards, I have no issue voicing concern. That being said, I am very hopeful that RR can turn it around this season. I have zero desire to wait for a return to greatness. When in doubt, I think back to the comments of a co-worker and WVU alum after the hire of RR (it works best when you imagine the sweet accent that accompanies the words), "RR is mean. He won't be happy just beating teams. He's going to stomp on their necks and won't let go."
Mr. msu fan, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Everyone who posted, save a few, are extremly defensive about this. You must be afraid somewhat. His logic, flawed in spots as it may be, is completely feasable. I wouldn't be suprised with 5-7 wins. Sometimes you have to step away from things and look at them in a different light so your own emotions don't interfer.
what UConn has shown themselves to be that makes them a walk-away loss like the OP introduces?
Next he will be doing "300" impressions: "WE...ARE...SPARTA!" Yeesh.
This is inflated ego of the irrational Spartan fan in all its YouTube glory...my favourite line is where they talk about what an honor it is to die on the battlefield...I say we give them what they want...
This is so ridiculous. A mod at The Only Colors said that 300 may have been the worst thing to happen to their program, and while I think this is slightly exaggerated, it has been pretty funny to see the fanbase resemble its stereotype of frat-boy douchebags with their obsessive following of an admittedly mediocre gore-fest that was totally awesome, brah. I am so glad we don't go "OMG HUGH JACKMAN WOLVERINE WIN FIGHT KILL RAWK!! What is this 'Hail to the Victors?'"
They have gold outlines on their numbers on the "alternate" football jerseys, presumedly because of the Spartan warrior image brought on by 300. Come on...
Dude...could you picture it? We all go to games dressed in Maize and Blue "X-Men" costumes with copycat facial hair and fake Wolverine claws on the backs of our hands...too funny...just the thought of that makes the whole Spary 300 thing seem even more rediculous.
Don't forget the video for the pre-game, X-Men Origins works nicely I think. Who cares about running through the banner? That stuff is so outdated.
We need some ten foot Wolverine Xmen mascot to lead the team out and instead of Touching the Banner... he shreds it with his claws...all while we blast loud RAWK music and set off flairs and fireworks...it will be sooo awesome!
with sunglasses, a cape and cowl... that would be epic ridiculous...
That this turd in moss green suspenders threw the grenade into the room and walked away? He hasn't returned to make any comments. Not one. He wanted to make us all go ballistic (it worked) and enjoy the fireworks.
he rarely discusses topics. just posts and walks off. hence why it's so annoying that he feels the need to not make forum posts but, instead, forum topics.
with OP update/response
He is right. We would have gone into auto-troll mode last year had someone predicted 5-7. The only thing I really see is the Purdue loss and Wisconsin win but other than that it's all possible. I said it before, he's more rational than those calling 9-3 or 10-2.
it's that it's dressed up as a thorough analysis when it has little to no analysis. he ignores any sort of natural progression for UM and instead buries the defense as "undoubtedly worse" due to one lineman and a cornerback. while these are issues of importance, they're not an overall death knell. the d-line looked strong in spring practice and is a UNIT, not one side. if all the dbs go from 6s to 7s while losing an 8/9 player, they're a better unit. if the line goes from 7s to 8s while losing a 10, the unit is better.
an admitted fan of another team who feels the need to create posts that extoll his virtues as rational without an analysis that truly shows any sort of valid knowledge? that's not right, that's trolling. 5-7 is a basement, not a middle ground expectation.
oh and don't forget his is the fan base that predicted 9-3 or 10-2 last year. by all predictions i've seen on MSU based sites, 9-3 is their expected basement. so an MSU fan's prediction that throws out 5-7 as his expectation not in a comment but in a glorified "LOOKATME, I'S SMART" manner. it's unwelcome to many.
Are a beautiful man, mon ami.
Understandable.
I feel the need to agree with his assessment of our defense, not because of his analysis, but because of how bad it was last year (although hopefully the Ohio State game was the start of a trend and not the exception to the rule). It won't be as bad as last year, but that isn't saying much, if anything at all.
As for the "rational" MSU fan, his approach was pretty tactless, and I don't think he cares (obviously). He shouldn't have posted this, and it should be taken with a grain of salt. This was not thourough or even researched analysis, and to claim that it was is misleading.
State did lose a few close games last year, with their schedule 9-3 was not a bad prediction. As for this year, the schedule is favorable again, but 9-3 is the kind of homerism that is found everywhere, including here.
i would also like to point out that your ultimate premise that a 5-7 prediction would have elicited trollism. MANY people believed 6-6 was very possible and that 8-4 was a very optimistic ceiling. predictions of 10-2 this year are very rarely serious and are instead the optimism of people who have seen that the development of many of the players seems to be peddle to the floor. i think it may be one thing i can conclusively note as a difference between Carr and RR - players under Carr seemed to get better yearly; players under RR seemed to struggle and then become WAY better in a rush. now you could argue it's hard not to look better when you look as bad as some did in 2008 but i genuinely don't look at last year's team as a 5-7 team. and i watched every game. they very narrowly missed 7-5 imo whereas teams like MSU who could have ended up 8-4 instead of 6-6 missed did so because of systematic problems. UM would lose games by being burned on one to two plays - teams like MSU would lose by consistent series that exploited very serious defensive problems that have not been shored up in the offseason. whereas it appears UM has. the 3-4 is not going to fix MSU's db problems, it just escalates the power of their LB corps.
color me optimistic that this team returning is not going to hit the low-end again.
We would have had to be really really lucky to go 7-5. As it is we won two games that we were outgained in and could have gone either way (ND + Indiana). The other games that were close (Purdue, MSU, Iowa) we were also outgained in. For us to have won 4 out of those 5 games would have required a tremendous amount of luck.
The Only Colors did a poll.
http://www.theonlycolors.com/2010/4/28/1449801/toc-talk-the-2010-michig…
Contrary to your statement that "9-3 is the expected basement", the majority of them expect 8 wins or less.
You should let the OP be the only one tossing out ignorant claims here.