Rooting interests
I don't want to beat a dead horse that doesn't even exist, but I showed my dad (former Chair of Statistics at UM--longest serving chair in UM history) this previous breakdown of Michigan's odds to win the Big Ten this year, and he wasn't satisfied with my analysis. So he made me redo it more thoroughly because we're a family of nerds. Figured I'd share it with you since it gives us some rooting interests...
Overall probability Michigan wins the Big Ten: 0.0011%
Unfortunately, it doesn't look like OSU is going to ever do something useful for us, so this number is going to get even lower if Penn St wins. Down to roughly 0.00090%...
It's not going to happen regardless, so your rooting interests may be better spent on how you think results least hurt our recruiting/always rooting against OSU and MSU. But, we do have a promising new QB at the reigns yet again, and anything is technically possible...
Edit: With today's results, the probability jumps to a whopping: 0.0061%. Number is probably higher as the updated Massey win probabilities will most likely change slightly in our favor.
October 28th, 2017 at 7:21 PM ^
Fibonacci?
October 28th, 2017 at 7:28 PM ^
Not surprised at all that sparty lost at northwestern. At this stage, I don't care about anything else other than somehow, some way beating osu on 11/25.
GO BLUE!!
October 28th, 2017 at 7:31 PM ^
The humble brags are strong with this one.
October 28th, 2017 at 7:45 PM ^
October 28th, 2017 at 8:03 PM ^
My dad is the greatest man I've known. You should never be humble when it comes to your dad, BTW, my son had touchdown runs of 55 and 35 yards today with seven tackles for loss from his linebacker position. Two kickoff returns of over 40 yards as well. Last game of 6th grade year. Pretty proud dad today. Bragging bitches.
October 28th, 2017 at 9:03 PM ^
keep it coming and go 6th grade wolverine.
October 28th, 2017 at 8:31 PM ^
October 28th, 2017 at 9:05 PM ^
October 28th, 2017 at 7:36 PM ^
October 28th, 2017 at 7:38 PM ^
October 28th, 2017 at 7:59 PM ^
October 28th, 2017 at 8:13 PM ^
October 28th, 2017 at 7:39 PM ^
Bill Ericson?
anyhow, stats nerds are almost as popular as computer nerds these days.
who knew how the world would change?
October 28th, 2017 at 8:00 PM ^
What are the tie breakers in the event that four teams end up with two losses?
October 28th, 2017 at 8:11 PM ^
October 28th, 2017 at 8:51 PM ^
October 28th, 2017 at 11:48 PM ^
I'm not sure that's right. I just googled and found this: http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/archive/081011aaa.html
Here's the relevant bit:
(b) If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 8 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step (or sub-step), the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative. If three or more teams remain tied after any step, move to next step in tiebreaker with remaining tied teams.
1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.
, , ,
That's not very well worded, but I think that it means
1. The records of the three or more tied teams against each other will be compared.
Anyhow, a four-way tie with us, MSU, OSU, and PSU is still bad, since we'd be 1 and 2 against the others.
October 28th, 2017 at 11:57 PM ^
What about a three way tie with OSU, PSU, and us. Can't we win that? Isn't that more likely (relatively speaking)?
I think one of the tie breakers in a three way tie is record against the 4th place team. So basically we'd have to root for MSU's season to completely fall apart, and Penn State to lose to Maryland. (And, of course OSU would have to lose to someone.)
October 28th, 2017 at 8:46 PM ^
Peters plays like Andrew luck,
OSU loses at Iowa,
PSU loses at East Dumpster Fire
Our odds of winning the Big Ten increase to like 0.5%
October 28th, 2017 at 8:46 PM ^
Peters plays like Andrew luck,
OSU loses at Iowa,
PSU loses at East Dumpster Fire
Our odds of winning the Big Ten increase to like 0.5%
October 28th, 2017 at 8:46 PM ^
Peters plays like Andrew luck,
OSU loses at Iowa,
PSU loses at East Dumpster Fire
Our odds of winning the Big Ten increase to like 0.5%
October 28th, 2017 at 10:10 PM ^
October 28th, 2017 at 10:29 PM ^
our odds are up to .77%
October 28th, 2017 at 9:29 PM ^
I totally DIG how much you own being a family of nerds.
Go Blue!
October 28th, 2017 at 10:19 PM ^
October 28th, 2017 at 10:39 PM ^
record for LSA, at least that's what he tells me. Finally decided to sell out and move to be closer to my sister's kids and work for a bank.
October 29th, 2017 at 11:32 AM ^
Not that I expect this to happen, but any hopes of winning the division hinge on both PSU and MSU losing two games. They both obliged us yesterday by getting halfway there.
Now we need the damn Spartys to upset PSU, and then have OSU beat MSU. If we somehow manage to enter the OSU game without any further losses, then that game would be for the east division crown.
October 29th, 2017 at 11:35 AM ^
Nope. OSU would have 0 big ten losses and Michigan already has 2.
We aren't winnng the B1G this year guys.
October 29th, 2017 at 11:49 AM ^
like it didn't really happen. I negged myself anyhow.
October 29th, 2017 at 1:08 PM ^
October 29th, 2017 at 11:46 AM ^
October 29th, 2017 at 1:10 PM ^
OSU wins out except a loss to us
OSU wins tiebreaker and goes to big ten title game and loses to 1 loss Wisconsin
Michigan ends the year with two losses and is chosen over Wisconsin due to their late season run and Wisconsin’s horrible schedule
Sounds impossible