Thursday Recruitin' Reheats Star Debate
There's enough to cover from the BBQ that I'm splitting this edition of the roundup into two parts. Today I'll cover the five recent commits; tomorrow I'll go over the rest.
If you missed them, the five recent Hello posts: Luke Schoonmaker, Nolan Rumler, Stephen Herron, Cameron McGrone, Sammy Faustin.
Sammy Faustin and When Stars Really Matter
Let's start this roundup with the most recent of Michigan's slew of commits, three-star FL S/CB Sammy Faustin. It was quite clear from the comments that many around here didn't see much past this...
Scout | Rivals | ESPN | 247 | 247 Comp |
3*, #75 CB, #876 Ovr |
3* CB | NR CB |
3*, 86, #74 CB, #730 Ovr |
3*, #78 CB, #870 Ovr |
...before passing judgment on Faustin and questioning why the coaches would take such a low-rated player this long before signing day. One of the main arguments against Faustin is one we've made many times here: star rankings really do matter.
They do. There's a mountain of evidence to back up that assertion. Context is key, however. The recruiting rankings that matter are the final rankings, once the recruiting services have as much data as they can gather. Nobody is going back to look at rankings at the time of a player's commitment.
Faustin hasn't even played his senior season. We already have a couple recent examples of who-dat defensive back commits taken by this staff developing into (or being recognized as) solid prospects by the time signing day rolled around. Josh Metellus was either a two-star or unranked on all four services when he committed in the 2016 class; three sites subsequently gave him the Michigan bump to three stars, while ESPN got fresh eyes on him and rated him a four-star prospect with an evaluation to match. Metellus saw the field as a true freshman, impressed, and should start this year. More recently, Benjamin St-Juste was a literal unknown when he committed—initial camp reports got his name wrong—then starred at The Opening and cracked the 247 top 100.
Faustin is skeptical of your armchair scouting.
"Trust the coaches" can be a lazy deflection. Between Jim Harbaugh and Don Brown, though, it's hard to question these guys when they identify a player they want early. At the very least, we should let the process play out a little further. Sometimes it only takes a day; read Scout's post-commitment writeup on Faustin and tell me where you think he should be ranked:
Faustin, who passes the eye test with prototypical size in the secondary, is a versatile defender who does a great job of reading and reacting from his cornerback position. Once dissecting the play, Faustin turns heads with the ability to burst out of his back pedal by pushing off his back foot, flashing impressive acceleration in the process. This is a kid who also shows decent technique for a cornerback of his stature.
Faustin is one who does not shy away from physicality either. Once finding his lane to the ball carrier, Faustin closes on the ball in a hurry while also playing under control. There are times when he loses track of his tackling technique, but for the most part, Faustin is a sound tackler in space who strikes with good pad level. He is not the most explosive kid and can work on his flexibility, but does not have much of a problem flipping his hips and readjusting. Faustin is a defender who provides that pop at the point of attack.
For a safety who'll cover the slot, that's a pretty ideal evaluation. It jives with the junior film, which doesn't look like that of the #78 corner in the country. The Wolverine's Brandon Brown caught up with Tom Lemming for a scouting report, and this one also sounds like it's meant for someone better than a middling three-star:
"Faustin is one of my 'Other Players to Watch' in Florida," Lemming said. "He's 6-2, 175 pounds and has legit 4.5 speed. He has good range, quick hands and loose hips and does a very good job of playing the ball. He needs to add weight and strength but is an exceptional athlete."
In related news, recent tight end commit Luke Schoonmaker got a 14-spot bump in Scout's tight end position rankings, added a three-star ranking from Rivals, and got evaluated by ESPN, which now has him as the #19 in-line TE in the country. There's plenty more in last week's roundup.
If you're going to star-gaze without watching the film, I recommend at least waiting until February.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]
Cameron McGrone: Future MIKE?
When I wrote up four-star IN LB Cameron McGrone's commitment on Monday, I saw him as a WILL in the Devin Bush mold. 247's Steve Lorenz posted in his VIP notes that Michigan's coaches see him in a slightly different spot:
The staff is recruiting McGrone as a MIKE; they are the only school who likes him there. He will give them a different dimension at the position as he's an outside backer athletically but plays a physical style Don Brown will love in the middle. Provided he is healthy, he is a player I personally view as a potential contributor in year one.
Given McGrone is further along as a run defender and blitzer than he is in coverage, that fit makes sense as long as he adds the requisite bulk and block-shedding ability. Lorenz also notes this is Michigan's second commit (following Christian Turner) for whom they overcame a big Notre Dame lead; Shayne Simon unfortunately represents the flip side of that.
Meanwhile, Scout's Allen Trieu updated his evaluation on McGrone with a positive mention about his coverage ability:
McGrone is an aggressive linebacker with excellent burst and explosion. He is a great blitzer because of his quickness off the snap, but also his timing. He will take on blocks aggressively as well and does a good job of delivering initial contact. As he adds more technique in terms of using his hands, he should be a guy who can blow up lead blockers because of his explosive power. You don't see him in coverage a ton on his high school film but he looked good in that department during the camps we have seen him at.
If the "blow up lead blockers" bit holds true, I'm sold on him as a MIKE.
As a bonus, fellow Indiana native Emil Ekiyor—who took a recent visit to Alabama, a dangerous contender—seemed quite pleased about McGrone's commitment. More on him tomorrow.
Stephen Herron Gets THE Coach Quote
Scout's Allen Trieu caught up with five-star 2019 KY DE Stephen Herron's coach after his commitment and got the quintessential high-character-guy quote:
"You can't ask for better kid," Vaughn said. "He's the complete package. He's really the definition of it, of being a complete package. He runs a non-profit where he gives back to under privileged youth. He goes on missions. He has a 4.2 GPA. If I had a daughter, he would be first in line for me to date my daughter. You can't go wrong with a kid like that on top of the athletic ability."
In Herron, Michigan is getting a highly recruited athlete with outstanding grades who still wants to do better.
"He can get a lot better because he is willing to put work in," Vaughn said. "He's not satisfied with his success. Sometimes when kids have early success, they may think they've arrived but Stephen is willing to work for his goals and aspirations."
In addition to being very good at football, he sounds exceedingly unlikely to wash out.
Lorenz's post-commitment VIP Notes, uh, note that Stanford held the lead heading into Herron's visit, but Jim Harbaugh gave him a lot of attention and Greg Mattison also played a big role in turning the tide. The 2019 DE class is shaping up to be really dang good:
I'm not going to think about the numbers in 2019 right now. This is more about getting an elite player at an important position and it could be the start of another excellent class up front. I still believe Michigan is the favorite for five-star DE Chris Hinton and are a major factor for four-stars George Karlaftis and Joseph Anderson among others as well.
Karlaftis looks like a very good bet to wind up in the class after last weekend. Herron-Hinton-Karlaftis would be a hell of a haul.
Nolan Rumler: Searching For Negatives
The common theme in four-star 2019 OG Nolan Rumler's post-commitment evaluations is scouts having a difficult time finding something to criticize. Rivals's Josh Helmholdt:
"We list Rumler as a guard, but he has played tackle in his high school career and brings versatility to the table," Helmholdt explained. "He earned an early four-star designation from us and has very few weaknesses for a young lineman."
WHAT ARE THE CONCERNS? There are basically zero concerns about Nolan Rumler, and if he stays healthy he is going to be a multi-year starter and future NFL player. To nitpick, he is not a long-armed, 6-foot-6, super athlete on the offensive line, which slots him as an inside player. There are no concerns with talent, grades, conduct or leadership, as this is a quality young man in every aspect.
That works.
As evidence Rumler is a team guy, Lorenz reports that he held off on making his pledge public to build excitement for the BBQ:
On June 27th, Rumler called the Michigan coaching staff and informed them that he was verbally committing to the Wolverines, but wanted to wait until he returned for the BBQ to make it public and generate some excitement heading into the event. It's a subtle but well-hatched plan that may get some momentum going with some guys the staff is in good shape with.
He's also looking to do some recruiting of his own with Hinton as a top target.
This isnt necessarily the truth, Taylor has offers from the likes of Tennessee and Oklahoma, to name a few. The kentucky thing is mostly due to his wanting to play tight end over defense. Johnson has offers from most of the mid level big ten schools but chose bowling green instead. the drop in rankings doesnt mean they declined, but could be more that they had early high rankings due to camp preformances or playing deep into the playoffs in high school. so other kids could catch up by showing out at camp and then the rankings get moved all around and they get passed up. it happens every year
August 5th, 2017 at 12:58 PM ^
Bowling Green over all those other listed offers. Michigan is one of them and we know that's far out of date. I'd guess that's true for some of the others too.
we all know more about whether a kid can play than anyone on staff. FIVE STARS ONLY.
Period. End of story. Doesn't matter who recruits them. Cold hard fact.
This is oversimplified and incorrect. But you said "Period" and "End of story" and stuff, so I guess we should defer to your infallible interpretations of correlations like these.
Right, but the averages are made up of lots of people who play above their ranking and lots who play below. If particular coaches know exactly what they're looking for and have the eye to pick out the kinds of athletes and people that will work with their system and development abilities then they're not playing the averages or dependent on what the averages or percentages are for success with 3 stars and their success rate with lower rated players will be higher than the average rate of success for 3 star players.
Read the evaluations in the article, this guy isn't lacking anything compared to plenty of 4 star guys, he just doesn't have the stars yet and has been overlooked for whatever reason. Now that he's committed he'll get all the scrutiny you want this year and we'll see where he ends up ranked. Would you like to bet on whether he'll move up or not assuming he stays healthy?
i'm convinced.
except for the fact that...oh fuck it, never mind. i'm already bored with this conversation.
I'd rather see Michigan recruit a 4* then get the Michigan bump than a 3* and get a Michigan bump.
You must disagree with the entire premise of this article, including that the "Michigan bump" is not thought out and therefore not relevant. What's relevant is how many times the rating service has put eyes on the recruit. What's most relevant is how many victories (national championships) Harbaugh gets.
Is the first one in a long time where if I see we offer and get a commit from a 3* guy, the reaction is "well looks like we found a gem then" instead of "what the hell?". Don Brown is an amazing defensive coach and Harbaugh is a top 5 coach in CFB. I definitely trust the coaches on this one.
recruiter. For a Florida kid, that should tell you something.
when they look at a guy based on film they can go way beyond his highlight film and look at all of his game film.
August 3rd, 2017 at 10:13 PM ^
It's not all offers & stars, its scheme fit, its potential, its attitude, and so many other things. I don't question Harbaugh.
August 4th, 2017 at 12:01 AM ^
In Harbaugh's last year at Stanford he had his team finish the season ranked #2 per Sagarin, just 0.01 points short of 1st in the nation. In Sagarin's predictor - what he claims is his most accurate predictor of head to head match ups, Stanford was ranked 1st in the nation.
Harbaugh did this with "star" rankings far below what he is doing at Michigan.
Per 24/7 national recruiting rankings, Stanford:
2010 - 25th
2009 - 21st
2008 - 47th
2007 - 51st
He turned that into a legitimate national title contender.
At some point we have to trust him to (1) evaluate talent and (2) develop talent based on his track record.
Stars are statistically important, yet statistics say Harbaugh can build a winner without lots of star power.
September 7th, 2017 at 7:14 PM ^
Pete Carroll is probably going to break down in Seattle here soon without an OL.
Overall the roster at Stanford during JH's tenure performed well above what recruting rankings/starz would have preduicted.
Still, the no. 2 ranking and Orange Bowl win, etc., would not have been possible without Andrew Luck.
So... As a group JH's 3 stars will overperform. But drawing even with OSU will require elite level QB play from Michigan. That is the formula.
Not there yet. Speight in 2016 was a lot better than 'just a guy.' He was pretty good overall. But not great.
Either Speight or Peters will have to perform at a much higher level to be a real playoff contender on 2017 and 2018.
Not saying it will take Andrew Luck level QB play to draw even with OSU. But it will take a QB production that is among the top ten QBs in the nation.
August 4th, 2017 at 12:01 AM ^
August 4th, 2017 at 10:25 AM ^
You can tell that he has natural feel for the game. He is also a good open field tackler.
It's because ohio state is getting 5 star recruits so easily.
Ohio State is recruiting at a ridiculous pace and getting everyone they want, doesnt matter the position or where the person is from. It seems that their winning is not the only thing that they have to attract young players. Now they are doing that but it doesnt mean that they are going to always win. There are going to be players at every school that are ranked lower than normal who end up playing a big role in a teams success. We saw that Hoke could recruit the heck out of 4 star guys but couldnt coach them up. We see how well that worked over that span of years
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