The Talent Differential

Submitted by Bluestreak on

I see how the board is full of 'how this team has underperformed  yadda yadda.

Our talent differential compared to elite programs is still too wide

 

Consider this. Since 2013

- We have 4 recruits with 247 score above 98, OSU has 15, Alabama 26!!

- Put another way, for every Peppers we have, OSU has 4 equivalent difference makers, Alabama has 6.5 equivalent difference makers.

 

It doesn't get any better when we look lower down the depth chart.

- We have 21 recruits above a composite score of 95 since 2013, OSU has 44, Alabama 55

 

The point I'm trying to make is that unless we get an equivalent number of difference makers, having program that contends for National Championships is a pipedream. Unfortunately, all the top programs have similar high level player development and facilities. It comes down to having players with the highest ceilings and developing them to their potential.

 

Underperform is what OSU did (against Clemson).

Clemson had 16 recruits above a composite score of 95 ... compared to OSU - who had 33!You can tack some of that to youth but not all of it.

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AA Forever

January 2nd, 2017 at 10:41 AM ^

If you look at things honestly, the last time this team won a game that could be considered a really big, significant one was the 1998 Rose Bowl. That's a long time ago. Since then, what? A few decent wins in second tier bowls at the end of 3-4 loss seasons, a few wins over OSU in down years for them. That's about it.

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Blarvey

January 2nd, 2017 at 10:42 AM ^

This only makes sense if Michigan is not sending out mostly 4th and 5th year guys all over the place. The biggest talent difference I saw was on the OL where UM seemed average and lacking cohesion in the middle. They moved the pile against inferior lines and the rest of the time their liability seemed to be gameplanned around.

I would say receivers too and that is mainly because they disappeared late in the season. Some of that has to do with Speight/O'Korn and I suspect they may have been banged up. Still, any pro-style/multi offense team needs reliable receivers.

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SeattleWolverine

January 2nd, 2017 at 11:09 AM ^

Chesson is a mystery as far as I can tell. I don't buy his lack of production being a lack of talent. He's shown he could play in the past, not an All-American level but at least at an All-B1G level. But he pretty much disappeared this year. Definitely one of the unanswered questions from this season along with what the truth is on Speight's health. 

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bdneely4

January 2nd, 2017 at 11:06 AM ^

For those who have made the statement "so we are going to have to wait 2-3 more years before we are elite", the point isn't that we have to wait that long to win, but we will have to wait that long to close the talent gap. This is a fact. Some teams can win without the talent gap completely closing, but I think the point of this thread is that as long as Harbaugh is here and continues to do the things he does well (recruit, player development, instill a competitive attitude) we will consistently be elite after 2-3 years. Do we have to wait that long before we beat tOSU hopefully not, but it will take that long for Harbaugh to reach the programs Urban and Sabah have built at their programs.



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AA Forever

January 2nd, 2017 at 11:22 AM ^

he's really going to have to prove his ability to develop players into high level starters, across all positions, not just a few isolated cases like Ruddock. To get anywhere close to where we were this year, a lot of guys in their first or second year on the field will have to make a jump from very occasional contributors to quality starters or even stars. All of the Oline except Cole. Crawford, McDoom, Johnson, DPJ, Asiasi, Wheatley, Bunting, Evans, Higdon, Walker. Kinnel, Hudson, Metellus, Long, Hill, Bush, Dwumfor, Kemp, among others. Guys like Gary need to take a huge step forward..he's the kind of recruit that needs to be playing at an All-American level next year. If top-flight recruits are regularly taking 3-4 years to become elite players, then we will be constantly lagging behind the Alabamas and Ohio States of the world.

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YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

January 2nd, 2017 at 11:10 AM ^

This team lost 3 games with the lead late in all 3 games. At Iowa and OSU, we had the lead AND the ball late in the game. Could the OL/RB combination deliver first downs? No. Could the OL open a big hole to make the run easy? Nope. Did we have a back like Scarborough, Barkley or Cook to create tough yardage on their own? Nope. Did we have QB who could generate a first down with his feet or a great throw? Nope. Could Darboh or Chesson get great separation to make the pass easy or great hands to win a contested ball? Nope. Those issues were the same reason that UM struggled to move the ball effectively against the fast & aggressive FSU team. Especially with Butt out, the team had to rely on a true frosh to generate an explosive play. Lack of elite talent. The defense had talent and many of them will get a shot in the NFL. However, the depth chart would have been scary without the 2016 recruits. The true soph and jr classes are largely voids. The last point is the underlying issue IMO with the "talent" discussion. There are so few talented soph and jr to displace upperclassmen who underperformed. The OL roster is a disaster in those classes and Newsome's injury sidelined 1 of the two talented guys (Mason the other). True LBs are void between McCray and true frosh. Secondary is a void with Metellus, L Hill, Long and Hudson as next men up other than Kinnel and Watson.. Speight was a necessity (and a masterful project) because real QB talent was non existent without transfers. McDoom and Kekoa had to fill WR voids. 3 first rounders, 2 more very good players, 15 experienced & solid players, a handful of solid underclass men, and then a bunch of talented freshman.

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mgobaran

January 2nd, 2017 at 11:17 AM ^

Not sure why everyone likes to project from such small sample sizes. We probably overachieved last year, and underachieved this year. Harbaugh maxed out the talent on the roster, and this is where we are. Our first back to back 10 win season since 2002/2003. Not too shabby. 

We do have a talent differential. That's apparent. I'm not sure what the most damning piece of evidence is to be honest. Getting outplayed by Florida State. Choking on Iowa. Or Ohio State getting blown out by Clemson. The fact is we are not a top tier team yet. Top 10, yes. Top 5, nope. 

The problem is that has been what we are since Bo took over. Consistently the 3rd-10th team in the land. Never THE BEST. Hell, even in 97 we split the national championship, and S&P+ rankings have us as the 6th best team. We have a precieved notion of being a National Championship contender year in and year out without ever reaching that height. Our recruiting speaks volumes towards that fact. We expect to be BAMA, while BAMA is still BAMA when no one has ever been BAMA before. That is just insane to think can be accomplished. Especially while OSU is the closest thing in the country to it. And before this past season MSU was closer to it. 

The fact is, we are building something amazing here. We have two seasons to go off. I hate looking at bowls and making statements of your entire season based on the success of an exhibition played 4 weeks after your last game. So we went from 9-3 to 10-2. Disappointing in the short term, but exciting when you look at the big picture. 

Keep building and maybe in four years we find that we have been at the big boy table all along. It's a fact that it won't happen overnight. Enjoy the ride, cause there is no way to catch up in 1 year. And no way to surpass what our expectations are. 

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SysMark

January 2nd, 2017 at 11:18 AM ^

The offensive line was shaky and Speight has been hurting since the Iowa game.  We weren't deep enough to oversome that.  Starting next year JH has his recruits more available, including at QB.  The team will be more resilient.

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93Grad

January 2nd, 2017 at 11:50 AM ^

That talent gap is going to continue going forward. Just look at the classes Bama and OSU have going this year. Our class is very good. Their classes are historic.

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victor3275

January 2nd, 2017 at 12:05 PM ^

We have to remember that this is JH's second year and we have back to back 10 win seasons I'll take that from where we were the last 10 years. But with regards to the recruiting and being behind the ball. We have to give him some time when he took over it was like UM taking over at OSU that team was loaded because it was a program that has been roaring from the years past all urban had to do is take control and then keep it climbing. JH took over a program that had no identity for 10 years. He didn't come into a loaded roster, yes we had some good players but the difference is there was no identity. Hoke recruited great foundation players he was starting from the bottom and building up these were core players for the program, players that were very important but not players that were going to give us a national championship. These were players that were going to give us a top 15 team. Now JH has taken these players and taken them to the highest peak they can reach at this level. And now with these last two recruiting classes he's sprinkling in the playmakers we need to keep this program climbing. We are getting difference makers not just foundation guys. The core of this program is very strong now and now we are finally getting those players that are going to make us go to new heights. We just have to give JH some time. I want Michigan to be the best every year and every loss kills me and ruins my week but I'm not letting it blind me that we are headed to the next level we are finally competing with the big dogs for these difference makes and we are getting them and soon we will have the team full of athletes to give us the program we always dreamed of. We just have to take a deep breath and appreciate the process because JH is building something that's con be sustained for a long time. We have to remember we're we were 10 years ago and think a little realistically

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TruBluMich

January 2nd, 2017 at 12:47 PM ^

He's not alking about Brady Hoke, Carr was the coach 10 years ago.  He's talking about a team that was one game (one really bad personal foul and a whole bunch of politics) away from playing for the national title.  Yes, I feel as if that team was pretty elite.  Long, Woodley, Hart, Henne, Mannigham, Arrington, Trent, Zoltan, Jamison, Harris, Hall, Brown, Breaston, Branch and I know I'm missing a few.

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ArmenHammer

January 2nd, 2017 at 1:26 PM ^

Well, for 2017, as for players with a grade better than 98, Michigan only has 1 this year (and might get a 2nd or 3rd). OSU has 7 (even before picking up Holmes and/or Okudah), and Bama has 5 (with Harris). 

For players with a grade better than 95, Michigan has 6, OSU has 11, Bama has 9.

OSU was also less experienced and developed than Clemson, or really anybody, this season. That's why they'll probably be ranked #1 next year.

Now, I'm no Michigan hater or cynist. I thought Michigan, with Peppers and Butt, was the 2nd best team in the country this year. I think Harbaugh, albeit unproven, is of the top 3 best coaches in both college and the NFL. What Michigan has to do is to bring in increasingly elite classes year after year, only insighted by consistent performance during the season. If Michigan maintains 10 win seasons, then the talent will come in.

But, speaking on actual performance in season, I also believe that the ratings of recruits don't necessarily guarantee they will perform at that level. It's a player-by-player thing, a team-by-team thing, a year-by-year thing. I have faith that Harbaugh will find ways to come out on top, but it's disappointing that he couldn't have this past year.

#NHtoAA #CFtoAA #TStoAA #MBtoAA Go Blue.

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CoverZero

January 2nd, 2017 at 1:16 PM ^

The FSU game clearly showed that Michigan does not have enough explosive athletes, and lacks strength on the OL as well.

Hopefully the younger players coming up will solve those issues.  However I felt that Michigan did not match up well with FSU in terms of overall athleticism and playmaking.  This was a bit of a surprise but was a good learning experience.  FSU had a slight edge there which must be solved in recruiting.

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MINajee et Trois

January 2nd, 2017 at 9:22 PM ^

Harbaugh was extremely close to closing the gap with incredibly talented 5 stars like Alex Leatherwood, Isiah Wilson, and Aubrey Solomon but somehow he let all 3 slip out of his grasps at the last second

In the future if Harbaugh were to build a program that competes for ships year in year out he'll need to land those recruits. Our skill players/recruits are fine(*COUGH* Assuming Najee Joins). Its our O and D Lines that Harbaugh will need to focus on hard in years to come in order for UM to reach that next level

Thinking back on it had Harbaugh landing those 3 recruits who were so close to going Blue, Michigan very well may have been one of these historic 300+ recruiting classes we see Georgia, OSU, and Bama having this year. Se were close but no cigar

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