This Is Our Concern, Basketball Edition
2/28/2016 – Michigan 57, Wisconsin 68 – 20-10, 10-7 Big Ten
[Patrick Barron]
I try to avoid putting certain thoughts on twitter during basketball games because the replies they draw tend to send me into a "someone is wrong on the internet" pit. This didn't go so well yesterday, in both directions.
I expressed frustration at Michigan's horrendous defense in the first half, when Wisconsin bricked a huge array of wide open threes. I got a couple responses about how it was better to give up wide open threes than to let Nigel Hayes eat in the paint, with one guy offering up Hayes's shot chart as evidence. Evidence of what, though?
Hayes isn't actually an efficient offensive player this year in any way except one: he gets to the line a lot. He's suffered with the extra usage heaped on him in the absence of Dekker and Kaminsky; Wisconsin has a lot of bad possessions and Hayes ends up taking a lot of 15-footers as a result. He's good at those, which is like being good at writing about Rutgers sports.
As a whole, Wisconsin is decent at threes (4th in the league) and mediocre at twos (7th). They are not a team that you should be constantly doubling until they get a launch off. This is what Michigan did in the first half; they got lucky. So I got into a fight about that despite the fact that Hayes wasn't even taking the open threes.
Later, I expressed further frustration at Michigan's defense and got an array of FIRE HIS ASS and PATHETIC replies. I have only myself to blame.
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But it's true, and playing Wisconsin is designed to highlight everyone's frustration with this year's basketball team. At halftime I predicted a ten point Wisconsin win in our slack channel, and there was grunting agreement. UMHoops felt the same way:
Michigan is hanging around in Madison, but a Wisconsin run almost feels inevitable. pic.twitter.com/mQRJmD60DQ
— Dylan Burkhardt (@umhoops) February 29, 2016
It was, with Wisconsin staking itself to a seven point lead by hitting six straight shots. The threes versus twos discussion became moot as Michigan failed to defend either well. Then you look over at Wisconsin's collection of athletes. Wisconsin features a guy Mark Donnal wrecked in high school and a variety of gentlemen who seem like ringers grabbed from the Plattville YMCA. Their main post is a freshman. They are 18th in defensive efficiency.
It's pretty tough not to be sour at Beilein after watching a bunch of try-hard types with excellent organization stifle Michigan. It's pretty tough not to be sour when Vitto Brown, the guy that Donnal worked in high school, goes 4/6 from three on six uncontested looks.
I don't expect Michigan to be actually good at defense for a lot of different reasons, but there's a difference between Michigan's usual meh and this. The trend is worrying. Defensive efficiency in the Beilein era:
- 2008: 100th
- 2009: 69th
- 2010: 58th
- 2011: 37th
- 2012: 61st
- 2013: 48th
- 2014: 109th
- 2015: 107th
- 2016: 145th
This is the third straight year of a triple-digit ranking. While you may remember things as "not good" even when the larger picture was much prettier, this is a whole new era of ineptness only matched by Beilein's first team of castoffs and runaways. This year's team is in fact considerably worse despite than those guys despite having a reasonable amount of experience. For the first time in a while Michigan doesn't have a freshman playing major minutes; for the first time in a while they've crawled out of the 300s in Kenpom's experience stat. This was the first year in a while you could reasonably expect year to year improvement, and yet.
The reason that the world expected Wisconsin to pull away in the second half is because they had a guy where Michigan was when their shots went up and Michigan did not do this. There is no reason for this based on the guys on the court. That is what's scary about this team and those down the road: something appears to have left the program over the last three years. The 2014 team managed to paper over it with Nik Stauskas and his merry band; Michigan outfits that do not have the ability to finish #1 in offensive efficiency have not found a plan B.
This is in no way a plea to fire anybody. Michigan has lost an NBA first round pick to injury each of the last three years, along with their starting PG last year and backup PG this year. If a Tom Izzo player gets a hangnail it gets a special edition of SportsCenter on which Izzo weeps and quavers; Michigan has suffered the insult of injury stoically.
But there's no reason that losing Caris Levert would send the defense into a tailspin. There's no reason that Ricky Doyle should go from promising freshman to afterthought in a year. There's no reason that Michigan should find itself 11th in defense in a league featuring luminaries like Penn State, Rutgers, Northwestern, and Illinois. This is our concern, dude.
Bullets
I mean like whatever. I am super not into this basketball team for the reasons detailed above, which I why I haven't written about it much. Whatever motive force was behind the back to back elite eight teams left the building with Stauskas and has not given a hint of a return.
I would not be surprised to see a coaching shakeup after the year. Beilein did it once before, and since he's clearly not going to be the guy who fixes the defense he's got to get someone in who can give it a shot.
Bright spots? Michigan had a bunch of tight curl screen action that we hadn't seen much of before that was effective; they also made a number of interior passes to their bigs in situations they had not attempted much previously. Those resulted in a few turnovers but also a number of shots at the rim that were generally effective.
I wonder how much of the problem with the offense is that there aren't many good passers on the team. MAAR and Irvin are getting better but had to come up from absolutely zero assists; Walton is so bad inside the arc that there's not much reason to overplay him. This is no longer a bright spot. Sorry.
I'm shocked. Jon Crispin does not like dabbing.
February 29th, 2016 at 7:47 PM ^
Another myth. He inherited a bubble NCAA tournament team that included Manny Harris, DeShawn Sims, and Epke Udoh.
But lets keep revising history to make ourselves feel better.
February 29th, 2016 at 8:43 PM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 2:21 PM ^
Not sure I understand your post.
(Meant for Carlos)
February 29th, 2016 at 2:37 PM ^
If there's an argument I can't get behind, its the argument that Michigan basketball shouldn't expect success because it's not a "traditional power"
February 29th, 2016 at 1:51 PM ^
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February 29th, 2016 at 12:59 PM ^
The NCAA doesn't hand down death sentences. In fact, the NCAA barely enforces anything anymore.
Beilein has gotten his share of highly ranked recruits - there's a number of 4 stars on the roster right now. The problem is they aren't living up to expectations - some of them have hardly made a dent in the contribution department during games so far in their career.
February 29th, 2016 at 1:07 PM ^
Well to be fair, certain guys are playing that shouldnt be (because of early departures and injuries) yet. So playing the development card is a tough one. Though, Brian makes a good point with Doyle. What the hell happened to that kid?
February 29th, 2016 at 1:07 PM ^
Michigan's offense is complicated. The big recruits aren't interested in that.
February 29th, 2016 at 1:23 PM ^
and its ridiculous that people actually believe this. First of all JB has disproven your own fallacy by recruiting much better in the 2011 and 2012 classes. Second, there are plenty of clean programs that recruit far better than JB does. It might cost us a shot at a few one and done types each year, but the vast majority of the top 100 kids should still be open to us every year.
February 29th, 2016 at 1:30 PM ^
Well, he got a top-100 kid this year in Simpson. Got Chatman two years ago. Both Irvin and Walton were top-100 guys. But 2011 and 2012 were aberrations; he got a couple of kids who blew up late in the recruiting cycle and then became even better in college. But there is a part of college basketball recruiting that Beilein won't delve into, and while that doesn't mean the bulk of top-100 kids are taking money under the table, things like shoe sponsors, AAU teams, location, etc. all factor in. This isn't like football where you know you'll have kids for 2-3 years at the bare minimum. It's a different sale job.
February 29th, 2016 at 1:57 PM ^
You'd think that college basketball recruiting is equivalent to dealing with Colombian drug cartels the way people here clutch at pearls when it's brought up.
OMG! Saint Beilein can't be expected to deal with those ruffians in Detroit and Chicago!
When Beilein opened the class by recruiting a 3* big from Plymouth Township I shook my head. We need better athletes. Beilein needs to do better on the trail. Full stop.
February 29th, 2016 at 2:03 PM ^
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February 29th, 2016 at 2:06 PM ^
I hear this argument a lot and I don't buy it for a second. Getting pounded at home twice in a row in games that aren't even competitive and losing games to EMU, NJIT type teams last year has nothing to do with being a clean operator. I lived through the Fab Five and that doesn't apply either.
February 29th, 2016 at 3:20 PM ^
We got burned cheating once and can't risk a death sentence
The death penalty only applies to those who commit major violations while on probation.
February 29th, 2016 at 7:51 PM ^
I stopped reading at "recruiting isn't Beilein's fault."
Jesus fucking Christ.
February 29th, 2016 at 12:51 PM ^
Burn it!
February 29th, 2016 at 12:56 PM ^
but I do think coach has certainly earned a shot to turn things around again. There is talent here to work with. If they can even become moderately shitty on D next year I think they may be OK. I really don't see JB coaching any more than 3 years after this year regardless. He is showing many signs of being burned out. if I had to make a bet, i'd say the 17/18 season will be it for him no matther what happens
February 29th, 2016 at 12:58 PM ^
Matt Costello, the grittiest gritterson who ever gritted, is from the mean streets of Linwood, MI.
Where a guy is from has little to do with how tough he is or how much "dog" he has in him or whatever nonsense you want to trot out to express your frustration with how this season has gone. You want to argue about player development, fine. Complain about the terrible defense, sure. But if location and inner-city toughness was really the key to winning then Duke would be awful and every coach would be flocking to the prison gym where Shaq played ball in Blue Chips.
February 29th, 2016 at 1:44 PM ^
While I udnerstand and acknowledge your point, Duke is getting more than its fair share of inner city talent these days. And Matt Costello ain't the engine that makes MSU go. That's Valentine.
February 29th, 2016 at 1:50 PM ^
What's your point?
February 29th, 2016 at 1:53 PM ^
I thought my point was clear enough. He made it sound like Duke doesn't get any inner city kids.
What's up with you lately?
February 29th, 2016 at 2:02 PM ^
I missed the part where he said "Duke would be terrible". That is my fault. I thought your claim was that "Duke is able to recruit inner-city kids so why shouldn't Michigan". I take full blame here.
February 29th, 2016 at 2:03 PM ^
No worries. You've always been one of the best posters here
February 29th, 2016 at 1:53 PM ^
Agreed on both counts. I just picked Costello because he's their best post player.
February 29th, 2016 at 2:34 PM ^
how good was he two years ago as a soph? he's a much improved senior now. same goes for forbes. same goes for valentine. it's nice to have experienced seniors. that's how izzo has won. JB will finally have a couple next year and a few experienced juniors too.
he finally has a pipleline of experience going. if he can get just one guy to "blow up" each year, the team could be contending for BIG titles, if not more.
February 29th, 2016 at 1:26 PM ^
He only recruits upper middle class suburbia and refuses to go into the city and get real players with toughness and dog in them and it shows on the court.
Man that's a fine-sounding dog whistle.
Trey Burke. Nik Stauskas. Mitch McGary. Tim Hardaway Jr. Glenn Robinson III. Caris Lavert. Go thru that list and show me guys who lack "toughness".
What has hurt Beilein is that the players he has now haven't developed as quickly as before and he lost a bunch of talented kids to the NBA early. Wiscy doesn't make a run to the finals last year if Frank Kaminsky didn't stick around another year (he was projected in the latter half of the first round the year before). MSU isn't making a run if Valentine hadn't come back. IU would be a different team if Yogi wasn't there. UM has suffered as a result of their own success, and Beilein doesn't "recruit like a mid-major"; he recruits like a guy who isn't going to get his hands dirty trying to deal with the unsavory parts of massive year-over-year turnover you see at programs that consistently send 1 or 2 guys to the first round for years.
February 29th, 2016 at 2:05 PM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 3:43 PM ^
yeah, Wisconsin is surging but I would not say that attrition has not taken its toll. They were pretty much on the bubble until last night so I would say the loss of 4 starters has taken its toll.
February 29th, 2016 at 4:51 PM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 3:48 PM ^
was also voted the best college offensive basketball mind by his peers...THIS PAST YEAR. ya, let's fire the guy. if UM fires JB, they would be a laughingstock.
February 29th, 2016 at 4:44 PM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 6:01 PM ^
When RR is a couple possessions away from a national championship, let's talk.
UM fans give Beilein a break because he's a really good coach who is in a bit of a rough patch; bandwagon fans who can't handle a team they root for losing call for the guy's head.
February 29th, 2016 at 6:46 PM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 7:16 PM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 8:01 PM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 10:40 PM ^
Beilein coached at WVU and UM for a total of 14 years, and has made 2 Elite 8s, 1 Sweet 16, and a national title game. He made the tourney 3 more times. He already has the most wins in school history.
You just seem petty and angry. As soon as I hear someone call the offense "gimmicky" I sort of check out because it's just the most lukewarm of "takes", but sure. He doesn't teach rebounding and defense. He somehow has won 600+ games in his career by tricking people and somehow relying on a "gimmicky offense" to beat them. By all means follow another team, but I don't get why someone who clearly hates watching this team spend untold number of opportunities to bitch about it every chance he/she gets.
And yeah, I'd take Beilein over Izzo any day. Izzo is a petulant asshole who is dirtier than he looks, and this isn't some morality argument. I just don't like the guy's antics, and for long stretches I found his teams unwatchable and his thugball the worst type of basketball. Recently he's gotten better offensively and it is more fun to watch as a result, but watching his teams slam into people for 40 minutes while scoring 50 points isn't basketball in any reasonable approximation. As for Matta, he's a fine coach. His teams have been trending down recently, though, and looked positively lost this season at times.
down more on your side of things, but it would appear that he in fact does not teach defense. The defensive issues that individual Michigan players have this year are jaw-dropping and really inexcusable for college ball. We are talking very basic stuff. High school level principles.
February 29th, 2016 at 7:41 PM ^
Uh, Rich Rod was 4 points away from making the national title game in 2007. Your arguement holds no weight.
Beilein has made 1 final 4 in his life. He's average.
February 29th, 2016 at 5:59 PM ^
They lost to Western Illinois, Milwaukee, Marquette, and NW. They are playing very well right now, but they absolutely looked lost for parts of the year as they tried to figure out how to rejigger their lineups and play the way they could. All of those loses are to worse teams than anyone UM lost to, and by a pretty significant margin (Marquette is barely top-100 in Kenpom, while OSU is hanging around at 64).
Also, I guess 3Lein is a new diss? That's pretty weak, unless you are describing Beilein as a third-year law student.
February 29th, 2016 at 6:49 PM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 7:30 PM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 7:44 PM ^
This arguement is so tiring. Beilein is regressing back to his mean this year. He's had two great years and a bunch of average ones. When will people stop acting like fanboys and accept this fact. He's on the verge of missing the NCAA's for the 4th time in 9 years. Wake up.
February 29th, 2016 at 8:32 PM ^
This whole "regression" argument is equally tiring. Beilein made 4 straight tourney appearances and won two conference titles during a very strong run for the conference. He won at least one game in the tourney 4 of the 5 times he's made it with UM. At WVU he won 14, 17, 24, 22, and 27 games, going to an elite 8 and a sweet 16 and winning an NIT title. At UM, he's averaged 21 wins, and that's including a really bad first year with 10 wins.
It doesn't make me a "fanboy" to think Beilein is a good coach, and it cheapens whatever argument you are trying to make with simple "internet" shit-talking. I disagree with your argument; deal with it. Trying to out-yell or chastise me is a waste of your time.
February 29th, 2016 at 8:53 PM ^
He's made 1 final 4. Argue that. Can't wait for this spin.
February 29th, 2016 at 8:07 PM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 8:42 PM ^
Well, good to know my viewpoint is wrong, followed by a bunch of largely irrelevant arguments about basketball. UM has a record of 1524 wins and 1009 losses in its history; That's a top 50-ish program (and yes, some of the wins were stripped away). And a lot of that was goosed by Beilein's recent success. It's a program that had a good run in the 60s and 70s under Strack and Orr, then a bit of a lull in the 80s, then a resurgence under Frieder/Fisher that ultimately was tarnished, then more meh under Ellerbe and Amaker, and then a bump up again with Beilein.
Nobody wants UM to lose, but this hasn't been a terrible year, just one that didn't meet expectations.
February 29th, 2016 at 8:59 PM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 10:29 PM ^
It wasn't "recent dark days". Considering that officially much of the Fab 5 is gone, then it's basically been since the very early 90s that UM was ever considered a national power. But whatever, apparently you view this program as some sleeping giant while I view it as a consistently good but not great program.
But regardless, the reason why I think Beilein can get this team back to a conference title/FF team is that he did it very recently and with teams not unlike the ones he recruits. Getting Nik and Burke-type players definitely helps, but IU is sitting in #1 despite not having a dominant-looking team (and going 9-9 last year). I do trust that Beilein will shake up his staff and get a defensive-minded assistant in who can help shore up that unit; if they were even an average college defense the team would be quite scary. And they have recruited size and should have a reasonably experienced club next year, two factors that can help shore up some defensive libailities. They still have issues on the wings, but MAAR seems like a plus defender who is figuring out his game offensively, and I still hold out hope that Donnal and Irvin improve a bit up front to help with the boards and at least slowing down big men.
I also think this team has been snake-bitten the past couple of years with lingering injuries; last year it was Caris and Walton sorta-playing through bad injuries; this year it was losing Spike and then Lavert, with Irvin also seemingly still getting over back surgery. It's not an excuse by any means, but a healthy UM team can compete with a lot of teams, and making a run in the tourney is as much a product of luck and seeding as actual talent.
Do I expect them to compete for conference tiltes each year like, say, Izzo? Nope. Izzo's teams are perfectly built to grind through the conference and win a bunch of games, but I think their is a ceiling for them that is a bit lower than UM at their best. Heck, this year might be MSU's best teams under Izzo and it still feels like a club I could see knocked out in the first weekend. Beilein isn't going to be the greatest coach in UM history, but he's not nearly the beneficiary of dumb luck the way people make him out to be.
February 29th, 2016 at 1:27 PM ^
But I disagree with a lot as well.
Where a player is recruited from is bogus. I played against as many soft kids from the inner-city as I did from kids from the 'burbs or from the corn fields. These guys all come up playing against each other any more, it isn't just going down to the park playing "no blood, no foul" rules.
Michigan has better facilities than they did under Amaker/Ellerbe. They are nice. They are no longer a detriment to the program. They are also no where near best facilities in the country. They are average B1G facilities. People act like Michigan dumped money into them and they became the best around, but that's false. They are not on par, with say, our football facilities.
As far as being surrounded by every major midwestern city... the Midwest has been losing talent left and right the past decade+. Population is going down. The days of the Flintstones are gone. Chicago is so corrupt even someone with the success of Izzo has pretty much given up on it. Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw haven't produced talent like the used to, and the talent that is there often leaves for prep schools because the schools in those areas are stuggling so much. Michigan offered a bunch of kids that ended up being very successful elsewhere as well, but losing out on kids to Kansas, Kentucky, UCLA, and Xavier is going to happen, those are top programs too.
Yes, things weren't going great even when LeVert was playing, that doesn't necessarily mean that they would have been this bad or wouldn't have improved with him playing. So while you can't ignore some of the issues even with him playing, you can't simply say it's no factor when he doesn't play.
The Beilein era peaked witha few plays away from a National Title. The offense still functions at a high level, it's just more inconsistent than in the past. But a few changes can be made to the defense to get it back up to the historic norm, then this is an offense that you can win consistently with and make the tournament consistently with. This isn't asking Rich Rod to get another new DC. This is a coach that has proven to create teams with great offense and solid defense to nearly the highest point in college basketball.
Yes, the ship needs to be righted, and the trend is worrisome. The solution isn't bailing after this year though. That's short sighted, regardless of the outcome next year, because you have evidence in your favor that giving him another year and allowing him to make some changes leads to potentially great things for the program.
February 29th, 2016 at 1:34 PM ^
Yeah, the "facilities" argument is insane to me. UM has a fine basketball complex, just like MSU has a "fine" football complex. But check out Kansas, UK, Duke, etc. and you'll see amazing basketball facilities.
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