Michigan By the Numbers Week 10
It has been about a month since I last looked at this data for UM, so now that we are 75% thru the season it's a good place to see where UM is among national leaders (top 30ish) or in the "boo" category (70 or worst). For a comparison to week 5 you can peek here. I'll discuss the changes a bit below as well.
Things UM is Good At
Natl Rank | Value | ||
Offense | |||
Red zone Offense | 6 | 94.7% | |
Sacks allowed / game | 31 | 1.44 | |
TFL allowed / game | 34 | 5.33 | |
Defense | |||
3rd down conversion % | 2 | 21.8% | |
Passing yds Allowed | 3 | 159.4 | |
Rushing defense | 3 | 80.6 | |
Scoring defense | 1 | 11.9 | |
Sacks / game | 28 | 2.67 | |
Tackles for loss / game | 28 | 7.2 | |
Total defense | 2 | 240 | |
Misc / Special Teams | |||
Kickoffs returns | 2 | 33.2 | |
Punt returns | 26 | 12.3 | |
TOP | 7 | 33:23 | |
Turnovers lost | 34 | 12 |
As Brian has been saying, "it is what it is" on offense. UM was among national leaders in the exact same 3 categories in early October as it is now. That said the Sacks allowed and TFL allowed have fallen from ranks in the teens to low 30s. The one thing UM is great at on offense is taking advantage of red zone opportunities. On the positive front this should be the worst offense in the Harbaugh era.
I will also say the sacks allowed and TFL allowed - while not top 10ish - are huge improvements from the disaster those categories were in 2013 and 2014. When you reduce the # of negative plays it is so much easier to have manageable 2nd and 3rd downs.
The defense continues to impress via NCAA stats (which don't adjust for SOS, etc) as well as advanced stats (which do adjust). In week 5, UM was among national leaders in 7 categories - the same as now. The only change is "passes intercepted" is no longer among the national leaders while "sacks/game" now is. Yes we played a lot of bad offenses this year but being ranked #3 in both passing yds allowed AND rushing yds allowed is pretty damn fun. Most important to winning and losing is scoring defense - we were #2 in week 5 and are #1 in week 10.
Our special teams return games are among the best in the nation - thanks Chesson, Pep, and Lewis. TOP is obviously a Harbaugh thing - you don't need it to win but it sure helps the defense. And with Jake reducing our hectic passes intercepted pace in the first third of the season, our total turnovers lost is now a solid 34th.
Things UM is Not so Good At
Natl rank | Value | ||
Offense | |||
Passing Offense | 92 | 201.0 | |
Passing yds per comp | 83 | 11.7 | |
Total offense | 86 | 372.9 | |
Defense | |||
Fumbles recovered | 126 | 1 | |
Misc / Special Teams | |||
Kickoff return defense | 76 | 21.9 | |
Punt return defense | 95 | 10.5 | |
Turnover Margin / game | 88 | -0.33 | |
Turnovers gained | 114 | 9 |
As mentioned above - "it is what it is" on offense. Passing offense is an issue for UM when not playing 3 freshman DBs from rutgers. A better passing attack probably has UM 8-0 but on the flip side no Jake probably means even scarier things so we accept it and move on. The one major improvement is the passes intercepted where UM ranked among the nation's worst in week 5. That is the one category where Jake's 2015 and Gardner's 2014 seasons dovetail; otherwise their stats YTD are very similar.
IMO the only disappointment in the Durkin defense is the ability to create fumbles - esp since that was a Florida trademark. It is amazing that thru 9 games we've created 1. On the flip side you can say it's awesome how the defense is doing without the ability to create fumbles but it would sure help if we could add to that total in these last 3 games.
Ok I will slap self on hand - after berating the Big 10 for having bad special teams in the prior post today I was a bit shocked to see UM's data in kickoff and punt returns defense. Fire Borges!!! The kickoff return defense took a hit last week obviously and 76th is not turrible...just very mediocre. But the punt return defense stat sort of was a cold splash to the face. Scratching my head on that one. Neither of those were issues in week 5 but we do seem to be giving up more yardage the past few games in special teams. Turnovers gained is also an issue mostly due to the inability to recover fumbles but even the passes intercepted ranks 61st with only 8 INTs by the defense. Turnover/margin per game being negative is not usually a hallmark of winning teams.
Again first world problems for a team that was having difficult fielding 11 men on a football field last year.
November 13th, 2015 at 11:39 AM ^
next time combine to one post please
+1 anyways
November 13th, 2015 at 11:44 AM ^
I prefer separate posts. Thanks Alum96
November 13th, 2015 at 11:48 AM ^
I do our opponents every week.
I only do UM every so often.
November 13th, 2015 at 5:14 PM ^
In our opponent's (as well as UM's) could you please swap the value and national rank columns? It reads better to me that way.
November 13th, 2015 at 12:04 PM ^
I tend to agree. Easier to compare the two, and doesn't push things off the board as quickly. Even if not weekly the same thing, it's not a diary so it's not like we'd be super confused when it's different. On that note, could be a diary. Thanks alum96; don't take this constructive criticism as anything but that because your contributions are stellar
November 13th, 2015 at 11:47 AM ^
Remember when 372 yards used to be a lot? Just 9 years ago, 372.9 would have put Michigan 33rd in total offense.
November 13th, 2015 at 11:53 AM ^
Yep its a different game now. See Big 12.
372 yds is a half of work for some of those offenses.
Pac 12 offenses are also diff animals than a decade ago. Hell even Stanford is going crazy this year. Utah is the only "Big 10ish" offense they have. (I am not including Oregon State which is Purdue level this year)
November 13th, 2015 at 11:54 AM ^
Also, that punt return defense stat is very misleading. Michigan dropped from 22nd to 95th based on a single return in the Rutgers game in which two blatant penalties were missed.
November 13th, 2015 at 11:56 AM ^
How are you able to see last week's data - the source I am pulling from only shows me this week. Just curious.
November 13th, 2015 at 12:09 PM ^
I'm not. I just remember noticing that they were 22nd (I think) prior to the Rutgers game. Could be off by a few, but the points stands - that one return dropped us about 70 spots.
Punt return defense is also a dumb stat because it doesn't account for the number of punts that don't have a return. Ceding 10 YPR over 4 returns is obviously preferable to ceding 5 YPR over 30 returns, but the stats would say just the opposite.
I do think it's surprising to see Michigan 59th in net punting. I thought that number would be higher.
November 13th, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^
Blake doesnt have a huge leg. I think when I looked a month ago he was like 9th in the conf in distance. He is a placement guy.
By the way the Big 10 has some of the best punters in the nation. Just not a lot of good "net punting" teams as they seem to outkick their coverage.
November 13th, 2015 at 11:47 AM ^
At first I thought we were gving up 31 sacks per game, then I went....never mind.
November 13th, 2015 at 11:58 AM ^
But...I thought the spread punt was going to fix all our special teams problems?
November 13th, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^
8-0 or 9-0? just a little nitpick.
November 13th, 2015 at 1:26 PM ^
Both. :)
November 13th, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^
This season has been an epiphany of sorts for me when it comes to "Offensive total yards" type stats. I don't put as much stock in them anymore because of how much of a factor good special teams (kick returns/put returns) can shorten a field for the offense.
Now, when someone says "Team X outgained Michigan!" I say "Phffft, and where was Michigan starting with the ball each drive?"
November 13th, 2015 at 2:22 PM ^
Despite our mediocre offense, all that matters is:
- On average, thanks to our defense, our passing offense still outgains our opponent's
- On average, thanks to our defense, our running offense still outgains our opponent's
- We have outscored seven of our nine opponents - YAY!