This Week's Obsession: Worst Attrition Comment Count

Seth

Two-parter this [ed-actually we did this last…] week.

Seth:

1. What was the most painful single attrition loss you remember (Woodson was not painful since you didn't expect him to come back. Neither was Stauskas. Hypothetically losing Trey Burke after one year would have been THE WORST. Guys who were 50/50 only get half points.)?

2. Guy who would have been eligible for the 2015 football team you most miss?

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Worst attrition loss ever?

Brian: We're a fun bunch this week. Here is a picture of Denard.

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comes with one free Molk

Despite the fact that Mitch McGary went in the first round and there was a pretty decent chance he was going to leave even if the NCAA didn't come down on him like lunatics, it's gotta be him. We got those six tournament games that hinted at his ability, and then he wasn't right during his sophomore season, and then he was gone because he had a soon-to-be-legal substance he was tested for after not playing in a game.

I just needed to have one season of McGary as his effervescent self before he went and blew up NBA twitter. Michigan's most recent basketball season was a magnificent combination of crappy circumstances that prevented McGary's impact from being severe in a program legacy sense... and despite that, his absence pulls at the heartstrings harder than anyone else's.

[After the jump: nothing as anger-inducing as McGary, at least.]

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Ace: Jamal Crawford's Michigan career lasted just 17 games, and yet I'd include him among my very favorite Wolverines from my time growing up and dropping by any game at Crisler with tickets cheap enough to get in for less than the cost of a hot dog. (Back then, this was a lot of games.)

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Thanks NCAA for ridding us of athletes who accept offers like "here's a place to live so you won't get shot at anymore" when they should be playing the game just for fun. [Bentley photo]

Crawford could've been an All-American, a guy with the type of impact to change the course of a program in serious need of course-changin'. A 6'6" natural scorer with filthy handles—his nickname: "J-Crossover"—isn't something that comes along often; Crawford entered Michigan as an advanced version of Caris LeVert, essentially.

But the NCAA had to make Crawford another poster child for the way the college sports overlords will screw over student-athletes in the name of following the letter of their arbitrary laws. If the details of Crawford's case came out today, the backlash would be massive. Crawford didn't have a father around when he grew up in Seattle, then moved to South Central Los Angeles; his mother essentially handed over custody—though, importantly for the NCAA, not in any official capacity—to Seattle businessman Barry Henthorn, who put Crawford up and gave him a car. Henthorn wasn't a Michigan booster; he allowed Crawford to live in an environment where he could play basketball without the looming threat of gang violence.

The NCAA suspended Crawford not once, but twice, ordered him to pay back over $11,000 to Henthorn—the ever-magnanimous NCAA scaled that back from the original $15,000—and after the second suspension Crawford took the most understandable route and declared for the NBA Draft, getting selected eighth overall and going on to an impressive, ongoing career as instant offense off the bench. Would he have stayed at Michigan for more than a year if the NCAA would've been reasonable? I don't know, but I sure would've liked to find out.

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Adam: John Gibson. What if Jourdan Lewis asked to transfer days before his first fall camp? What if Tim Hardaway Jr. decided to go play in Europe a month before his freshman year started? Such was the case with John Gibson, who decommitted from Michigan after signing his LOI so that he could instead play for the OHL's Kitchener Rangers.

Gibson wasn't the first goaltender to spurn the Wolverines for the OHL; Jack Campbell did so the year before. What made Gibson's decomittment particularly painful was the timing. Campbell left Michigan months to find their next Goaltender of the Future. (That goalie happened to be Gibson.) Gibson was supposed to spend one season as Shawn Hunwick's backup before presumably taking over the starting job in 2012-13. Michigan was left with no time to fill the now-empty scholarship before the 2011-12 season started and had to rely on Adam Janecyk as the backup.

The graduation of Tiny Jesus left Michigan with freshmen Steve Racine and Jared Rutledge (who left the program after one season), plus the aforementioned Janecyk. Zach Nagelvoort arrived the following season, and since then he and Racine have been...okay, I guess.

Meanwhile, Gibson has become one of the Anaheim Ducks' top prospects. He posted a .914 save percentage and 2.60 goals against average in 23 NHL starts this season, which would have been his senior year at Michigan. It's hard not to think about what could have been as Michigan's goaltending has regressed over (and even within) the last three seasons.

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Seth: I used to serve Drew Henson his early morning sub at Pizza Bob's; the WORST was when he would come in with Yankees gear on. The QB controversy Lloyd created by promising Henson he'd start when Tom Brady was about to didn't do Henson any favors, but the worst nice thing ever done for him was when Ohio State fan George Steinbrenner ignored his scouts and offered Henson a starting 3rd baseman's pay to be a minor league 3rd baseman who strikes out a lot.

Lets remember what Drew Henson 2000 was like:

Go to 6:19 and watch two throws in a row. I was there and I don't know how his hands weren't frozen off and the guy's still making those tosses.

Henson taking Judas money from the hated owner of the most despicable team in sports to play baseball cut so, so deep. Like McGary we only got a little bit of injured ball (and defensive collapses he couldn't help) for one of the most exciting prospects ever to come here. According to guys who played with him, the broken foot in early fall practices deflated the season. By November the foot was well enough he could do 75% of Henson foot things, and Henson went point for point with Drew Brees and Randy Walker's spread offense. The second half of the game I showed above was one of the best by a Michigan quarterback ever.

In 2001 Michigan's offense went into a shell because John Navarre really wasn't ready to be the starter yet. That offense also lost four OL to the NFL plus A-Train and David Terrell (who it was said around campus would come back only if Drew did). But the damage was mitigated by a much-improved defense. Put Henson on that team and not only does it save Navarre a ton of therapy, but Washington never comes back, Spartan Bob remains a sad little man in a sad little booth for a sad little program, Tressel's bravado is thrown in his face, and Michigan gets blown out by Miami (THAT That Miami) in the national championship instead of by Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl.

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Dave: Antonio Bass was almost (again, hope I don't get fired for this) Denard Robinson before anyone knew who that would be. He played QB in high school, although not a great passer (55 of 161 for 999 and 14 TDs). Oh, could he run, though. In high school, he had 276 carries for 2177 yards and 30 TDs. He was 6'1"/194 in high school and had 4.4 speed.

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During one practice Antonio notices a reporter asking questions to a freshman receiver. He approaches, sees what's written in Rosenberg's notebook… [photo GBW]

After his freshman season in 2005—in which he played slot WR and started to show flashes of his capabilities—he sustained one of the worst knee injuries the surgeon had ever seen: a comparison to falling off a three story building and landing straight on his leg. He walked again, but didn't play.

WHAT IF...the injury isn't as serious and he just needs to medshirt. 2007? Not sure he prevents The Horror or even Oregon and after that probably similar things take place. But come 2008 he's a redshirt junior who's played some WR and QB packages and Rodriguez is all "man, you guys thought this guy was a receiver?" and teaches Bass to run read-options.

If Bass ends up being competent, the 2008 team is a probably 3-4 wins better and Shafer isn't forced to mount the scaffold to placate the peoples' blood lust. Come 2009 he's a senior returning starter and Tate is his backup, which means we can redshirt...this is getting painful; I'll stop.

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Guy who would have been eligible for the 2015 football team you most miss?

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Brian: There aren't actually that many options here since the 2010 class was such a disaster it prevented almost the entirety of 2011 from redshirting. Then Hoke came in and retained all the persons. 

Strictly in terms of "I would like this player and I have the Seahawks' approach to vetting them" I would like Frank Clark back on the team. Michigan has few sure things at defensive end and not even that many unsure things; Clark was proficient against the run and would have been dynamic against the pass if things had fallen slightly different last year in the secondary and at DT. The addition of a senior version of Clark would significantly improve prospects for the defense, and the season. 

If we are taking bootings into account, then it's Countess. You cannot have enough cornerbacks, and Countess was damn good as a sophomore. Last year sucked, sure. He looked feisty this spring, and I bet he ends up playing well wherever he ends up.

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Adam: Devin Funchess. I'm no doctor, but I feel like it's important for a wide receiver to have a foot. It would have been nice to see what Funchess could do with two of them, and would also have assuaged some of the tenable fears about the current receiving corps.

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Seth: Yeah I asked then realized the "wish you were here" pool is a lot smaller than I though, though I expect five or more will be added to the pile this summer based only on what always happens when you bring in a new coach. That still puts the 2012 and 2013 classes at historically low attrition after two classes that were historically high:

Attrition as of 5-14-2015

If I'd asked this for 2014 I would have answered Christian Pace—the OL problems under Borges were legion and mostly having to do to Borges, but having a proto-Molk after Molk would have fixed quite a few of those, starting with having an option other than "one-legged Molk" when Molk got hurt before the Sugar Bowl.

Since Funchess is taken, Countess has to be the next-biggest loss. Even if the base defense is a 4-2-5 nickel and even if Lyons won the job, and even if everyone stays healthy, and even if Watson is more than a one-trick pony, and even if Stribling is 100% made of matter, Countess was expected to play a lot. There's a lot of zone defense to be played on 3rd and longs. Guys who run up and down the field with receivers going deep need a spell. And 5th year seniors who were as good as Countess was a freshman are very nice things to have.

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Dave: I agree on Funchess, obviously. Countess is good, too. Since, I used up my words in the first answer, I'll quickly add Justice Hayes. Fifth year back would could at least handle the basics: finding the correct hole and picking up blitzes. Those aren't to be taken for granted, as we have learned.

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Ace: It's Funchess. I think anybody who watched the spring game would answer the same.

Comments

Lanknows

May 21st, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^

The 2001 football team still had a bunch of NFL skill players (Walker, Perry, Joppru, Askew.  The OL wasn't great but Goodwin, Pape, Bass around.  Having a mobile talent like Henson would have dramatically improved the offense's performance that year.

McGary was huge, but Michigan dealt with his loss the previous year just fine and could have dealt with it again if GR3 or Horford came back (or Morgan was magically granted a 6th year of eligibility.)  It wasn't McGary that blew up Michigan's season it was losing your top 4 front court guys at once and having to resort to a handful of lowely-regarded and/or raw freshman.

Crawford would have been great, but that was still going to be an Ellerbe team.  They went 10-18 that year, with Crawford your're talking about maybe a 500 team instead, maybe sneaking into the NIT.

Antonio Bass is a tragic figure but Carr wasn't going to use him properly and Rodriguez's problems were less on offense than defense. It's a huge leap to think he would have been an impact QB, especially with the 2008 OL.

Mine is Chris Webber. I don't care that it was expected - if you were around for the Fab 5 you loved watching them play, and Webber's decision meant that it was over and that their legacy would remain tied to just-misses.

lilpenny1316

May 21st, 2015 at 12:23 PM ^

I know he's not the most famous of guys on the board right now, but we took Arkansas to the limit without him.  His presence likely puts us in our third straight final four and I don't think Duke would've beaten them in the title game that year.

Sean Higgins gets my most underrated of the worst attrition losses.  We would have been competing for a NCAA tournament spot instead of getting bounced in the first round of the NIT.  His leaving early made no sense then, and definitely not now.  Maybe it was a grades thing.  I just can't figure that one out.

Don

May 21st, 2015 at 12:29 PM ^

Henson would very likely have been the #1 pick in the NFL draft, and certainly would have been in the top five. The contract he could have signed would have made the one he did sign with the Yankees look piddling by comparison. Michael Vick was the #1 pick in 2001, and his first contract with the Falcons was $62 million over six years.

Hannibal.

May 21st, 2015 at 1:37 PM ^

This.

Henson could have been a bigger flop than Ryan Leaf and he still would have made more money in a couple of years with in football than he did in his entire time with the Yankees.  Leaving for baseball was an absolutely awful decision and you didn't need hindsight to see that.  I was flabbergasted when it happened. 

ca_prophet

May 21st, 2015 at 5:08 PM ^

There's an alternate universe somewhere in which Henson spurned the Yankees and re-injured his foot in his first game, and never came back from it at all. If it was all about the money, his choice represents a guarantee of life-altering money versus a chance at ... Twice as much life-altering money. It may have ripped the heart out of our fans (and I'm right there with you - I didn't want him to leave), but it's not the awful decision we would like to think.

Andy

May 21st, 2015 at 12:34 PM ^

The treatment of Jamal Crawford by the NCAA when put in the light of Michael Oher is beyond ridiculous.  As mentioned by ACE the guy who "adopted" Crawford had no ties to U of M, Oher gets adopted by an Ole Miss guy and goes to Ole Miss.  NCAA lets it happen and we're stuck with a crappy Sandra Bullock movie, while Crawford is forced to go pro.

His Dudeness

May 21st, 2015 at 12:50 PM ^

Can I say I miss Rich Rod? I mean butterfly effect to Harbaugh and all that jazz, but I would rather have seen RR instead of Hoke over the last 4 years. Just my e-pinion.

PLEASE dont comment about how Hoke was better. I get it. If I don't like pizza you're not going to convince me to like pizza.

His Dudeness

May 21st, 2015 at 1:15 PM ^

Agree completely except I think Mattison knew defense... and again we wouldnt have had Mattison without Hoke. I get it. I just liked watching Michigan under RR better than under Hoke.

I am 100% happy we got Harbaugh in the end though. If that's what it took to get Harbaugh, so be it.

Lanknows

May 21st, 2015 at 1:15 PM ^

could have saved his job? 

Many seem to think Mallet or another QB would have made a big impact to 2008, and they might be right, but 2009 and 2010 were all about awful defenses.

For me, it's a Woolfolk's injury in 2010.  That was such a killer because he could have had a massive stabilizing effect on that defense.  The difference between him and freshman Cullen Christian...

His Dudeness

May 21st, 2015 at 1:33 PM ^

I think it was coaching attrition. Had he kept Shafer (and let him run the ship on D) I think things would have gone different in a very good way. RR was stubborn because he only knew one way of success on D and really only  a few coaches get that scheme to run successfully. VT, WVU and now AZ come to mind. Not many others really. Had RR just left Shafer to do his thing I think RR may still be here, but again that's just one man's e-pinion.

Lanknows

May 21st, 2015 at 1:57 PM ^

who is the highest paid assistant coach in WVU history and was the coordinator for a defense that was better ranked than Michigan's Mattison-led unit last year (despite inferior talent)?

Schmuck or not, the blame it all on Gibson narrative that this website supported should be dead and buried by now.  There's a very real chance that Gibson looks like a more impressive coach within two years than Schafer, whose currently hanging on by a thread as the HC at Syracuse.

Hannibal.

May 21st, 2015 at 2:28 PM ^

WVU game up 399 yards per game last year, which would make them the second worst Michigan defense of my lifetime. 

Gibson was a DB coach for a decade before that and most of his DB units at WVU, Michigan, and Arizona were terrible.  The year after he left Pitt the pass defense improved by 39 yards per game.  The year after he left Arizona the pass defense improved by 59 yards per game and the year after he left Michigan the pass defense improved by 71 yards per game.  When he was on our staff, Michigan's pass defense was porous even against really bad teams (like Purdue in 2008).

RichRod finally had enough of him after Arizona gave up 290 pass yards per game in 2012.  A pity he didn't identify Gibson as the culprit a few years earlier.  His career at Michigan might have been salvaged. 

Lanknows

May 21st, 2015 at 2:49 PM ^

Yards per game isn't a great metric when you're offensive coaches run a high tempo, high octane offensive system.  I'm not saying Gibson is a genius, but he certainly seems to be at least competant as an assistant to keep getting work and promoted.

http://www.si.com/college-football/2014/12/06/tony-gibson-new-three-yea…

West Virginia defensive coordinator Tony Gibson has agreed to a new three-year contract that could him make him one of the nation’s top 10 paid assistants according to a source.

The agreement comes after Gibson had been contacted about other jobs. He’s become a hot commodity in his first season overseeing Mountaineers’ defense, transforming it from one of the nation’s worst last year to the upper half of the FBS

 

 

TruBluMich

May 21st, 2015 at 3:36 PM ^

Be interesting to see the average number of plays AZ or Oregons defense is on the field compared to Michigan or Alabama's defense. If I had to guess its going to be much closer than you think.

Lanknows

May 21st, 2015 at 5:33 PM ^

On defense: Alabama had 945 plays while Oregon had 1168. Michigan had 783. 

Alabama ranked #8 and Oregon #14 in FEI defense.  Michigan was #41

Plays don't tell you much about your defense because the O still affects affect the number, just like yards per game.

If you are looking for something that accounts for offensive influence, FEI or S&P provide a good starting point.

 

MinWhisky

May 21st, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^

Jim (Diesel) Detwiler was a 6-3, 215 lb HB from Ohio who played for Bump Elliott in the mid-60s.  Tore up his knee in 1965 as a junior and never really recovered. Despite that major injury, Detwiler was drafted #20 in 1967 by the Baltimore Colts but never played pro ball because of his knee.  With his size, speed and strength, I always wondered what might have been. 

MEZman

May 21st, 2015 at 1:20 PM ^

The Henson thing is even more painful for me now knowing that my Bears might never have drafted David Terrell if he came back. Thanks so much for that Seth...

Hannibal.

May 21st, 2015 at 1:30 PM ^

Henson -- man that one hurt.  I don't think there's any contest there.  Not only was he leaps and bounds better than Navarre, but the circumstances of the losses to MSU and OSU in 2001 were especially painful.  If not for Henson leaving for baseball, Tressel looks like just another clown who predictions blew up in his face and we enter the national title game at 11-0.  It's double painful since Henson made such a stupid choice leaving, unlike McGary who is going to have a legitimate NBA career. 

Hannibal.

May 21st, 2015 at 2:31 PM ^

You can at least comfort yourself knowing that even if he had stayed he probably never would have meshed enough with the staff to become an elite performer, and by the time he was a senior I would put forth the argument that Schilling and Omameh were performing just as well.  Our 2010 offensive line was damn good. And even if he had been a great lineman, it would have been squandered because of our shitty defenses. 

Blue Kool Aid

May 21st, 2015 at 2:00 PM ^

if not for baseball, Henson would have had a magnificent career.   What if he red-shirted Brady's senior year and had 4 years left after that?  What did we really see, one full season?

and if somehow, Webber had stayed and we had Fab Five, Year 3...........(too much to consider!)

 

 

RuebenRileyonRye

May 21st, 2015 at 3:52 PM ^

Bass was legit. He was the poster boy of bad luck injuries. The rumors coming out of practice before his injuries were all the same. He was wowing everyone. It's too bad, because the scenario laid out in this post is spot on and ask his teammates, they will tell you the same thing...he had major talent and ability.



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ribby

May 22nd, 2015 at 2:24 PM ^

As long as injury cause attrition counts, Tony Boles.

Then, Jon Vaughn leaving after one really good year, because after you saw what happened to Boles, who wouldn't? But yes, Vaughn means we didn't really miss Boles that much, next man up, eh?