EMU Snowflakes

While we expect Beilein to just reload, it's a tall order this year.

- Our zone offense is horrible. Especially with the type of shooters on the team. Especially with the type of offensive coach we have.

 

- Zak Irvin not being able to create off the dribble really hurts this offense. What made last years offense great was Nik & Caris being great shooters, but also being able to break a defense down and finishing at the rim. It opened everything up. Only having one guy with that ability changes a lot, and this offense won't be consistant because of it.

 

- I actually expected this to be a close game before the NJIT upset. I think EMU is pretty good. They have real D-1 level talent on that team (Ray Lee had offers from several big-time programs, a dropped sexual assualt charge f'ed everything up for him). Still shouldn't lose this game at home, but that NJIT game just makes this one look a lil bit worse than it is.

This is really kind of shocking. If the offense even has an average game, we win this by 25 points (opposite of the prior game). 

Here are some of the worst losses in the Beilein era:

2007-08

Harvard 62-51 (finished 8-22)

Central Michigan 78-67 (finished 14-17)

2009-10

Utah 68-52 (finished 14-17)

2012-13

Penn State 84-78 (10-21)

2013-14

Charlotte 63-61 (17-14)

In three of those years we ended up making the tournament (winning a Big Ten title in one and playing in the NC game in another), but under Beilein this is entirely new territory to blow two gimmes in a row. And none of these games come close to the NJIT loss considering the talent currently on Michigan's roster. 

Given his history, one would think Michigan bounces back strong from this, but man, this doesn't look good right now. 

This is going to be exactly like the 2013 football season. We go into it expecting to compete for a championship and end up with a young, inexperienced, mistake-ridden team that is probably going to be on the bubble at like 19-13 at the end of the season.

The bright side - everyone returns next year.

We are missing a little floor leadership.  Think back to the year we actually had seniors (walk-ons), and after they left, the Manny show missed expectations - no leadership.

We have big lapses every game and rather than someone that's directing traffic, we only get a pick up when Caris takes it to the rack a couple times.  We lost the Nova game by getting stagnant, and we have yet to have a game without an offensive lapse.  On D, we just plain get lost on switches.  Also a lack of floor leadership.  Someone needs to step up and be vocal.  When we get our Zack Novak of 2014-15, things will improve.

And Saturday, when we go back to playing a man-to-man D, our O will have some flow again - until we have lapses of standing around the perimeter.

Youth is our enemy.  Belien is the answer, but he's such a long-view talent developer, I'd bet he's borderline okay with these guys taking a few lumps and learning some lessons.  His NJIT post-game he was pretty calm.  Maybe not as much now.

Nobody has run them out of the gym and he has teaching points galore right now.  This ain't no Elite 8 team, but they'll get better each week.

After the last few seasons, I am going to trust this staff to improve the players, fix strategic errors, and get better as the season goes along.  He has built up enough credibility with me that anything JB does short of playing 3 guys at a time instead of 5 on a regular basis will not be criticized.  That's just me, though-and I don't care about basketball nearly as much as I do about football.

Spike Albrecht had 4 turnovers.  1 assist.   I never dreamed this type of stat line would be associated with Spike.  He looked really flustered out there at the end of the game.

Everyone was off-kilter last night.   Give credit to Eastern's active zone, but the lack of offensive cohesiveness was alarming.  

 

The team underestimated NJIT and then they got tight against EMU when the focus was obviously on the defensive end.  I'm not saying this to excuse their performance.  The zone offense sets were horrible.  EMU was obviously extending the zone to take away the wing three.  Michigan held the ball too long, which is death against any zone, and almost never swung it to the corner which was what EMU was giving up if Michigan swung the ball with any urgency.  On top of that, everyone just stood around for the most part on offense and when they did manage to get in the middle of the zone, they turned it over quite a bit.

I think EMU is a team that could win the MAC, but the problems with UM are now mental.  It's still a bit early to panic.  JB is still a great coach.  I am surprised he didn't go deeper to his bench for longer.  The experienced lineup just wasn't getting it done and Caris needs to learn how to make his teammates better (he's obviously improved himself quite a bit).

This sucks but I would not at all be surprised if they make the tourney again.  If this team is able to retain most of its roster going into next year, UM could be really good.  This sucks, but be patient.

This is where coaching makes a difference. If it were all just "talent" teams with lesser players would never win.

Factors to consider before hitting the panic button.

1. Still a young team.

2. BB teams can improve rapidly over time - and we have months to get better.

3. John Beilein is a PROVEN great coach.

4. There are a lot of younger guys who haven't faced consistent good opposition - good enough to win - just can't show up and they fall over.

5. Maybe a really helpful moment - in the past, Michigan has had down moments and then the team gels and maintains focus. The past few years we've been LUCKY to have some really great players - Burke, Stauskas, McGary, and some great complementary players. We don't have the great lead players right now, perhaps Levert, we'll see. I hope that the team will look at this period and realize (a) they need to really work on their zone defense attack and (b) focus and not let up against so called "lesser teams".

Go Blue!

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