BB: Quick Look at Nova
I am sure Ace will have something more comprehensive later today but a quick fly by of tonght's basketball opponent.
First 4 games:
- W v Lehigh 77-66
- W v Maryland Eastern Shore 81-44
- W v Bucknell (YTB) 72-65
- W v VCU 77-53
Obviously transitive property is not to be trusted but the Bucknell game was 65-65 with 2 minutes to go so that box score is probably the best to show how they will play a close game. They gave up 32 to Chris Hass.
Nova (not Gary) has a 3 guard lineup which is a positive for a team like Michigan which is suffering some growing pains up front and has continued its issues of defensive rebounding from parts of 2013. Oregon is not very tall but as Brian noted they have a lot of "springy" 6'6 types who crashed the boards and overwhelmed UM. Which is what UK did last spring, except with 6'10 guys. I expect defensive rebounding to be an issue all year and cause many hairs to be pulled out of head.
Nova has a 9 man rotation but even against VCU players 8 and 9 were relatively limited so we'll focus on the top 7. That is 4 guards and 3 forwards/centers. Nova is very well balanced with any of 6 guys averaging between 8.5 and 12.5 pts per game, so on any given night any can go off for 15+. We have a "Big 3" - they have a "Medium 6". They jack up tons of 3 pointers from the guards/wings, along with 1 of their forwards (22 a game from those 5 players alone). They also have excellent steal data.
Big men:
- Starter SR JayVaughn Pinkston 6'7 235
- Starter JR Daniel Ochefu 6'11 245 (matchup nightmare for 2014-15 UM)
- Reserve SO Kris Jenkins 6'6 255
Relative to UM this is an experienced group of big men. But at this point anyone who can roll out more than 2 freshman is an experienced group of big men vs UM.
- Jenkins is currently the 3rd leading scorer at 10.5 ppg but rebounds poorly for his size (1.3 rpg) For a human tree trunk he takes a lot of 3s, 5 per game. 46% shooter, 33% behind the arc. Reminds me of a poor man's version of that bulky PF from TN last year that GR3 was tasked to stop. Will be interesting to see who Beilein asks to defend this type of player. Maybe Irvin will be forced to do it.
- Pinkston averages 10.3 ppg with all of it inside the arc, a traditional power forward type. 45% shooter and average 6 rebounds per game (2nd on team) so most likely will have 10ish tonight. Should be the type to get lot of second chance points. Not sure how Chatman will deal with a guy of this size and heft.
- Ochefu averages 8.5 ppg on 68% shooting and is a guy you dread facing this year. Not a super scorer but finding anyone on our roster to match up with him is a chore. Maybe in February/March this is a guy Doyle has success checking but right now Donnal does not seem to be one with the physicality to deal with him so Max's (short) bulk and Doyle's bulk probably are the best options. He rebounds 9.3 per game so yeah... not going to get a lot of rebounds when he is in the game. It would behoove Caris Walton and Irvin to drive the lane and try to get him early fouls.
Guards
- Starter SR Darrun Hilliard II 6'6 215
- Starter JR Dylan Ennis 6'2 192
- Starter JR Ryan Arcidiacono 6'3 195
- Reserve SO Josh Hart 6'5 205
Lots of balance here and a good amount of experience- should be a very good test for our guards/wings. I want to emphasize again the steal numbers - for comparison Caris steals the ball 1.5x a game.
- Ennis is the leading scorer at 12.5 ppg but again any one of these guys can go off on a specific night. Ennis is a 46% shooter and 40% behind the arc - very nice numbers for a guard. Takes 5 treys a night, and rebounds 5 per game - an excellent board figure for a guard, especially a 6'2 one.
- Hilliard is struggling with his shot in 2014 at only 34%. He takes 5 threes a night just like Ennis but only is making 20%. Don't be fooled though - last year he was a 49% shooter from the field and 41% behind the arc - elite numbers for a guard. Hopefully he stays in a slump for 1 more game. Creates 3 assists a game and looks like a defensive presence with 3 steals a game(!!).
- Arcidiacono is averaging 9.8 as the third starting guard. He also is in a slump shooting 28% (!) from the field and only 23% behind the arc - but that doesn't stop any of these guys as he also averages 5 three point attempts a game. He was not a great shooter last year either - his game seems to be assists (5 a game) and defense (2 steals a game)
- Hart averages 7.0 ppg and "only" takes 2 threes a game. Still that is 17 three point attempts a night combined from their 4 guard/wings. Efficient shooter at 58% from the field but only 25% behind the arc. An excellent rebounder at 4.5 per game in just over 20 minutes a night and yet another guy who steals often at 2.5(!) per game.
Should be a fun an interesting game because we have yet to play a team with multiple real big men. Will give us some insight on how we will have to battle the Wisconsin's and Illinois types.
They also jack up a ton of 3 pointers (20+ a game) but thus far this year Hilliard and Arcidiacono have been mostly missing them. Let's hope that continues. They have 3 guards who are very defensively disruptive so ball handling will be important - Spike probably plays a ton to offset their ability to steal the ball.
On paper they look pretty darn good but again - they were tied with Bucknell late so on any given night anything can happen.
November 25th, 2014 at 10:49 AM ^
Just posting a response to see 20,000 here. ;)
November 25th, 2014 at 10:54 AM ^
If we improve our defensive rebounding and increase our assists on offense versus last night we should get the W. (82-67 good guys)
November 25th, 2014 at 11:00 AM ^
Also, if Ricky Doyle can channel his inner Bill Walton, and Irvin can shoot a better 3 point % while increasing his drives to the hoop, and if LeVert can start hitting all his 3s, and if Spike can grow 3 inches, we're going to cruise.
96-47 good guys.
November 25th, 2014 at 12:28 PM ^
You want Doyle to get injured all the time and talk in a really whiny, nasally voice?
November 25th, 2014 at 10:57 AM ^
Here's how TeamRankings pairs them, to add to the discussion a bit. Average of only a few games, sample size qualifier, but interesting all the same:
Offense
|
Villanova | Michigan |
Points/Game | 76.8 | 72.7 |
Avg Score Margin | +19.8 | +13.3 |
Assists/Game | 15.5 | 14.3 |
Total Rebounds/Gm | 35.2 | 34.3 |
Effective FG % | 51.1% | 51.9% |
Off Rebound % | 36.4% | 25.6% |
FTA/FGA | 0.406 | 0.414 |
Turnover % | 11.6% | 11.3% |
Defense
|
Villanova | Michigan |
Opp Points/Game | 57.0 | 59.3 |
Opp Effective FG % | 48.0% | 46.9% |
Off Rebounds/Gm | 12.0 | 7.7 |
Def Rebounds/Gm | 20.8 | 24.0 |
Blocks/Game | 4.0 | 3.3 |
Steals/Game | 10.5 | 4.3 |
Personal Fouls/Gm | 16.0 | 14.0 |
November 25th, 2014 at 11:14 AM ^
Thanks. The 2 line items that are cause for worry are the steals at 10 per game (wow - they out havoced VCU) and offensive rebounds.
We gave up 18 to Oregon and Oregon didnt have a nearly 7 foot center.
November 25th, 2014 at 12:01 PM ^
i think it's easier to block out one guy than a whole team of rebounders who are crash the glass
November 25th, 2014 at 12:28 PM ^
ability to force turnovers becaue of JB. JB will demand taking care of the ball and Michigan has done that in the last few years under JB. It will continue against Nova thus neutralizing their defensive advantage.
November 25th, 2014 at 11:00 AM ^
I like that Nova's bench is short. If they only played 7 last night against VCU and we played 11 deep (with Walton being well rested). Hopefully that gives us a big leg up on back-to-back nights.
November 25th, 2014 at 11:24 AM ^
Read on UMHoops that no one for Nova played more than 29 minutes last night but Levert and Irvin played 39 and 38 minutes respectively. That's either a draw or advantage: Nova. But yes, Walton will be fresh.
November 25th, 2014 at 11:53 AM ^
Why do we think Nova's bench is short? They played a pretty legit 9 man rotation last night, and I disagree that guys 8 and 9 didn't play much. They played 13 and 9 minutes, respectively and they had 9 points (guy 8) and 4 points, 5 rebouands (guy 9). So their 8th and 9th guys got Donnel and Chatman level production (who were essentially our 6 and 7 guys last night).
So no, I don't think Nova's bench is short at all.
November 25th, 2014 at 12:37 PM ^
As I wrote in OP I used the box score of the Bucknell game to look at how they play in a close game. I assume UM will be a close game so its the best mirror for how they'd rotate.
The VCU game was a blowout in the 2nd half when those last 2 guys got more time than in a close game. Vs Bucknell the 8 and 9 guy got a combined 9 minutes (Booth 5, Reynolds 4). That doesn't mean they wont play more than 9 minutes tonight but if they are not getting a lot of time vs Bucknell I'd doubt they'd be playing a lot v Michigan. Those 2 also got a combined 4 minutes in game 1 (all by Booth) vs Lehigh which was Nova's 2nd closest game.
November 25th, 2014 at 1:13 PM ^
November 25th, 2014 at 11:04 AM ^
I admit I haven't watched this year except a few plays and a few games last year but Villanova's offense is a 4-out. That is the explanation why Jenkins shoots a lot of 3's. What ever player the have low will be who they think is the mismatch.
Of course I haven't done my homework so I could be as accurate as the announcers talking about JB's 1-3-1 defense.
Speaking of defense, I think Michigan will need to run a mix of man and zone vs Nova and tthey will break out some 1-2-1-1. Should be a fun game to watch if 3's are falling for Michigan.
November 25th, 2014 at 11:13 AM ^
I like the match-up. And I love that our fans represent so well at the NYC tourneys. Barclays was going bonkers during the end of the Oregon game yesterday.
Playing Nova early in the year is preferable to playing VCU, in my opinion. I think our freshman would be a bit flustered with "havoc" if they had to go up against VCU tonight. Later in the season though, I would expect a pasting like we witnessed in the tourney 2 years ago.
Let's go get another tourney win boys!! Nice write-up Alum96.
November 25th, 2014 at 11:43 AM ^
November 25th, 2014 at 11:17 AM ^
Dylan Ennis on Nova is the brother of Tyler Ennis (from Cuse last year). Wait I just mentioned Cuse: obligatory Orange falling at Final Four gif please
November 25th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^
I keep watching that and expecting the sound the orange makes when he got pushed around in all those Sportscenter commercials years ago
November 25th, 2014 at 11:50 AM ^
November 25th, 2014 at 11:52 AM ^
than we did against Oregon in the 2nd half. If we do, we should do OK. We can't depend on our inside game, that's for sure. It will be a great experience for the young players though. For the freshmen it will be their first "big game".
November 25th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^