Let's take a look at Defensive FEI...
Others will know much more about this than me, but just looking at the numbers through 10/11. Rutgers will fall after their ass-kicking Saturday.
DEFENSIVE FEI
Appalachian State #126, scored 52
Notre Dame #10, scored 0
Miami, OH #76, scored 34
Utah #3(!), scored 3 (Henry pick-6 was the only TD)
Minnesota #26, scored 14 (Morris start)
Rutgers #23, scored 24
Penn State #5, scored 16 (safety)
Sparty #39
(For reference Michigan is #50)
We’ve played 3 of the top 10 defenses according to FEI. Getting blown up by the first two, managing decently(?) in the third. Perhaps progress?
Looking strictly at these numbers, Sparty will be the sixth best defense we’ve seen this year. We should absolutely expect to score points.
Sparty is #32 overall (with a #36 Offense), hardly a juggernaut. Better than M so far? Absolutely (Michigan is #66, with a #67 Offense, #50 Defense, and horrid #85 Special teams). Intimidating? Shouldn’t be. Will I ask another rhetorical question? Yes. No, not another one. That one before was it. Sparty put up 56 points on Indiana? Who cares, the Hoosiers have the #122 defense. And a not-so-impressive #32 Offense (starting their fifth or sixth string QB due to injury). This is a game Michigan should expect to compete in. If any of this means anything.
Put it all together and get a win in EL.
October 20th, 2014 at 12:09 PM ^
I do not have much confidence in the current state of the offense. To me the playcalling is extremely basic and conservative. Continuation of the current trend will end in a loss. I'm hoping the coaches have two or three bags of new plays/looks for this game. They need to open it up and put it all on the line. One thing I do think is that now with one loss, MSU is needing all the style points they can get and if they can get this offense and team on it's heels they will roll up the score.
October 20th, 2014 at 12:17 PM ^
Actually, the rankings for Explosive, Methodical and Value drives for Michigan State seem to pain an interesting picture. They are #86 in explosive drives at 0.161, which is the percentage of drives averaging 10 yards per play or more, but #3 in methodical drives at 0.016 - that is the percentage of drives averaging 10 plays or more. MSU is also in the top 25 in value drives, or the percentage of plays that at least reach the 30 yard line. If there is a weakness in there, and we saw it in the Indiana game, it is the odd explosive play. Our chances are not great, of course, but there are avenues to make it interesting perhaps anyway.
October 20th, 2014 at 12:23 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 12:38 PM ^
I don't think our special teams is bad. Wile hasn't really had trouble since ND. Norfleet seems to get out to the 30 most kickoffs.
October 20th, 2014 at 12:42 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 12:40 PM ^
There is no reason, outside of the "rivalry game, throw the records out the window" line of thought, that Michigan should win this game:
- They have superior coaches
- They always play Michigan tough (even when they were terrible they did)
- They are better than Michigan at offense, defense and special teams
- They are playing at home
- They are looking for a spot on the playoff
- We do not have a significant road win in 4 years under Hoke
October 20th, 2014 at 1:19 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 12:42 PM ^
Well a defensive score counts, I guess.
October 20th, 2014 at 1:05 PM ^
The fact that Indiana has an amazing running offense doesn't mean anything. MSU could just put 9 in the box with their 6th string QB.
October 20th, 2014 at 1:07 PM ^
It can happen.
Will it happen? Most likely not.
I'm definitely saying in my most Lloyd Christmas voice possible that there is a chance.
Beat State Yaaaaaahhh.
Edit: No I haven't been drinking but may have to on Saturday.
October 20th, 2014 at 1:13 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 2:20 PM ^
I'm hoping UM comes out of East Lansing Saturday night with all the players still ALIVE. No fatalities: That's a good goal at this stage in the program
October 20th, 2014 at 3:12 PM ^
so who thinks Peppers will magically be back this week?
October 20th, 2014 at 3:12 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 3:14 PM ^
is as good as they've previously been. But the teams that have been able to do the most damage on them have been no huddle teams. They got completely gassed by Oregon and Nebraska, and Nebraska's not even that great.
Alas, Michigan does not seem well equipped to do the same type of damage to Sparty as those two teams did.
October 20th, 2014 at 4:11 PM ^
LOL they did not get gassed by Nebraska. That was a thorough dismantling thru 3 quarters and then MSU checked out mentally - even their coaches said they thought it was in the bag - the stadium emptied, and Nebraska starting to get a few breaks i.e. a big punt return etc.
Oregon they did get gassed in the 2nd half in 95 degree heat with 6 new starters on defense learning the ropes. They humilitated Nebraska, destroyed Abdullah and pulled the Denard Robinson defense on Tommy Armstrong - have your 53% passer try to beat our secondary while we focus all guns on making your running game inept.
October 20th, 2014 at 3:23 PM ^
hey guys, remember when we were gonna get taken out behind the woodshed to OSU last year?
Remember what happened then?
This situation feels eerily similar in that MSU is supposed to curb stomp us. The only thing different, and it is a monumental difference, is that we play on the road versus at home.
Call me crazy, but I think we beat the spread, somehow.
October 20th, 2014 at 3:58 PM ^
Trend model predicts we'll score 18 points (R-sq = .86). I think I would actually be okay with this offensive output.
October 20th, 2014 at 4:02 PM ^
The way Purdue attacked MSU was a competent QB who can complete passes to the flat with accuracy repeatedly. They also protected him very well in the 1st half and the 4th quarter (Sparty made an adjustment at half and demolished him in the 3rd quarter). This widened out the Spartan defense and opened up holes to run through. The pass opened up the rung ame.
We neither have a QB who throws with accuracy repeatedly nor an OL who protects well. We dont match up with their strengths.
It is not a great defense, it is a good defense. And where they are vulnerable (their safeties have been poor this year) we dont have the tools to attack repeatedly. With will probably luck in a big play or two along the way but this offense cannot sustain drives of 7-10 plays and thats what a team like Purdue did to succeed.
October 20th, 2014 at 5:31 PM ^
I noted this in another thread, but the FEI rankings are based on 6-7 games, and many of those were against a smattering of cupcakes and then however your conference slate shook out. At this point, trying to divine much from it isn't super-helpful. Michigan basically had a terrible game against Rutgers and meh games against Utah and ND, with scores coming in weird combinations of good field position and super-long FGs. If you asked anyone in the country they'd rather have MSU's defense over, say, Rutgers or Utah, but with small samples sizes you have these big gaps.
October 20th, 2014 at 8:54 PM ^
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