Mailbag: Guess What I Got A Lot Of Email About Comment Count

Brian

Screen Shot 2014-09-29 at 12.20.41 PM

Michigan football made Al Jazeera's front page. Hooray?

#WHEREISDAVE

Brian,

In regards to the way both Brady Hoke and Dave Brandon have handled the whole situation regarding Shane Morris, I have to wonder why we have not heard from the AD since the game.  I am concerned that the absence of any comment on the situation screams that he is trying to distance himself from the whole situation.  By doing this, I feel that he is jeopardizing the search for a new head coach.  Parents would have second thoughts on sending their sons to play for Hoke, while potential coaching candidates would have second thoughts on working for a man who keeps quiet in times of trouble, I know that I would.

I live in Arkansas and thought back to the way that Jeff Long handled the Bobby Petrino situation in April on 2012.  Four days after the accident, when it was to come out that Petrino may have covered up the accident Long placed Petrino on paid leave while he did his own investigation.  6 days after that Petrino was fired for just cause.  That is the kind of leadership I like to see in the workplace.

I will end this e-mail with a quote from Martin Luther King, Jr. as I think it speaks loudly as to what is going on now.

"The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy."

Don [ed: Not That Don]

Dave Brandon's 52-hour absence during a PR crisis magnitudes greater than the one Michigan faced when he was hired speaks volumes. We were all temporarily on board the Brandon Express because he came in and talked in his gibberish way to the media about stretchgate. He spearheaded the U's reaction to the investigation, and because his one skill is handwaving at things this seemed brilliant. That was a thing that deserved handwaving.

That PR crisis did not feature literally dozens of prominent opinion-makers on college football calling for Hoke's immediate dismissal, nor did Michigan show up on Good Morning America or ABC World News Tonight. This is so much worse.

And now Dave Brandon is a ghost. When the University of Michigan desperately needs someone to step forth and be Adam Silver, they get a single 1 AM statement from the guy in charge, one that directly contradicts his own football coach. Whatever this is, it doesn't feel like an attempt to save anyone's job.

They learned nothing.

Brian,

Since some people are defending the Morris incident by saying "its an isolated incident and only getting attention since we are losing", I think its time to talk about Brendan Gibbons. If that incident came out now (post Ray Rice) how would it play?  Also, its another incident where you are left to wonder whether Brady Hoke is (1) devious or (2) dumb - a question that as alumni and fans of what the university stands for we should not be asking.  

Regards,
Jason

The thing that makes Brandghazi even more inexplicable is that they already had something like this happen to them with the Gibbons thing, where their vagueness and dissembling led Brady Hoke to claim a guy who had been expelled from the university wasn't playing because of a "family matter."

They experienced a lesser version of the media blitz that they intensified with their stonewalling, gathering ugly press. What did they learn from that? Absolutely nothing. This is the PR equivalent of Shane Morris stumbling after a hard hit to the head against Ohio State and staying in the game.

And in the light of the most recent disaster, doesn't it seem a lot more plausible that Michigan was lying about Gibbons's "muscle injury" against Ohio State? We can't trust them about anything anymore.

Why Maryland?

Brian,

While I think a boycott is a good idea, I'm curious as to why you want to wait until the last home game to do it?

Mostly I thought the idea would be better if given enough time to gather a critical mass, and that it would be easier to convince people to stay away from a game that was not a night game against a theoretically sexier opponent or homecoming.

Also I wanted to give the powers that be some extra time to get rid of people. This isn't just Hoke, after all. It is also Brandon, and while you can chop the head coach off right now without raising an eyebrow canning Brandon might take some more time to canvass donors, point at the raging tire fire, and say "I hope we can agree that this is very bad and we need to move on to someone not widely hated."

I am all for people doing something for the Penn State game. A suggestion: replace GO with FIRE and BLUE with BRANDON in chants.

[After THE JUMP: more emails in this vein, and a random game theory Q]

Going or not going?

Hey Brian,

I got married this summer. Yay, right?  Well, my wife's gift to me for our wedding was two tickets to the Rutgers game (we live in NYC).  She shelled out nearly $500 for two 50-yard line tickets (on a teacher's salary, mind you).  My question: What do I do now?  Do I wear scarlet? Do I make a pun-y sign? Do I boycott the game (this would definitely upset the wife; something I probably shouldn't do 6 weeks into marriage).

Brendan

Y'all can go to anything you want to. I'm not judging anyone who goes or does not go to any Michigan game the rest of the season. There was a comment left on the game column from a guy who said he was dying of bone cancer wondering what he should do with his nephew in re: going to a game. GO. Fergodsakes, go. Buy season tickets to basketball, but go.

But if you're discontent with where we are now, just do something. Anything. Students, here's a petition. If you're going to a game, bring a sign that tells people how you feel. You don't have to opt out.

But I'm asking you to participate. Michigan is not a business. It is a community. We need you write a regent, write something on the internet, write the president, put a bag on your head, hold up a sign saying THIS IS NOT MICHIGAN. We need you to tell anyone who will listen what is wrong and how to fix it. We need you to say that this is not who we are, that we do not accept the kind of response to controversy Michigan is peddling.

We need to act like a small town now. If you don't go, okay. If you go, okay, But be mad, and show it.

Michigan men for AD?

If Michigan decides to make the change we all hope they make at AD, do you think Michigan should make an effort to look at any AD candidates other than those with Michigan ties? I admittedly know very little about how good Manuel or Bates would be, but I saw some non-Michigan sports people on twitter throw out some names like the Louisville AD or others.

Manuel and Bates might be very qualified for the job, just curious if you thought it would make sense to go along the lines of the search for a new university president and try to get the best person regardless of their ties to the university. Or if in the position of AD, it does help to find someone who is qualified and has ties to the university.

Thanks and Go Blue.

J. Madrox

If they're going to be making a change before they install a new coach I'm fine with going after a set of people you have a lot of information about and are likely to want the job. You want the new guy in an settled as fast as possible so he can start working towards whoever the next coach is going to be.

Unlike Brandon and Hoke, they are Michigan Men who happen to look like qualified candidates for the job Michigan would offer them. They have worked their way up through the athletic administration ranks by being successful at the job Michigan is (or at least should be) looking to fill.

Is this a question?

We are not making enough out of the fact that Brady Hoke, who says he would have wanted to be a Secret Service officer if not a football coach, is having a public relations meltdown that hinges on "dissembling about not being aware of something it's your job to be aware of" at the exact same time the Secret Service got caught dissembling about the fact that an emotionally disturbed veteran was able to jump over the White House's front fence and run into the East Room before being apprehended.

There has been some innuendo suggesting that my mailbag question is not a question, but I stand by it, and a medical staff statement on the question/statement distinction will be forthcoming at [mumbles] o'clock. And, frankly, I don't appreciate my character, when it comes to knowing what is and is not a question, being questioned.

BML

THIS IS NOT A QUESTION

Also increasing the eerieness factor here: Yesterday's edition of ABC World News Tonight led with the White House invader story and followed it with Shane Morris stumbling around.

Game theory you probably don't care about much.

In the podcast you said you always go for 2 down 17 in the 4th?  But if you just kick the extra point that puts you down 16, which is, as you put it, 2.5 possessions. 

I don't understand what going for 2 gets you?  If you make the 2 point try your down 15 points still 2 (maybe .25) possessions.  If you miss you're down a complete 3 possessions. 

Isn't it better to be down 2.5 possessions than 3, and isn't the risk not worth being down "2.25" possessions?

Thanks,

Dave C. 

I look forward to the day when I get to stop explaining what you should do when you score and you're still down multiple possessions. Today is not that day, though.

If you are down 23 points you need three touchdowns to tie, and you need two of those touchdowns to come with two-point conversions attached. If you don't make one of those two-point conversions you need another score. So you're going for two twice and one once no matter what order you go in.

Going for two early is an advantage because you have more information. If you go for two and miss, you know you're down a full three scores and you don't kick deep. If you get it you're a little more justified in kicking deep.

There are other situations in which this is clearer. Let's say you're down 15 and score a touchdown with four minutes left. If you go for two immediately you then know if you're down seven (and can kick deep) or nine (and must onside). If you kick the extra point you're not sure which is the superior strategy because the result of the two point conversion is still undetermined.

The point here is that you're not really down 2.5 or 2.75 possessions. You're down exactly 2 or exactly 3 and are trying to figure out which is the case.

[One basic game theory rule for football: always do everything as quickly as possible. If you have to go for two, go for two. If you have timeouts on defense and need the ball back, use them as quickly as you can. The worst thing you can do in that situation is let the opponent run 40 seconds off and keep a timeout.]

That headshot seems unsporting, chaps.

Gentlemen,

Please comment as to why, when Morris was hit and clearly dazed, that no one came to his defense. Not one player got in the Minnesota defenders face. Not one Michigan man challenged him to a fist fight in the parking lot for striking their quarterback. Not one coach was ranting or raving on the sideline. It was like no one cared. Are we too nice? Do we not care? If this had been done to the quarterback from another team, all hell would have broken out. We are truly a team of Jellyfish.

Thanks,

Greg Vallie

I don't know. For that to happen with zero response after Gardner took a cheap shot at the end of the Notre Dame game is very frustrating. You don't need to get in a punch-up and get ejected to let the opponent know that is not behavior they're going to get away with, but at some point you need to show some pride.

Comments

late night BTB

September 30th, 2014 at 4:16 PM ^

Make up your own freakin' mind about the boycotting, you're a grown adult fergodsakes.

Personally, I can barely watch such crap football on TV, so I wouldn't be inclined to attend in person since I did it 8x per year for 4 years and two rose bowls.  I'll be in EL this weekend watching a good football game.

If you go, it's not like you'll be blacklisted.

BlueinOK

September 30th, 2014 at 4:16 PM ^

Michigan is a community. It's people's lifestyles and family traditions. My family has tailgated for games for as long as I can remember and it brings everyone together. I agree. It's not a business, it's a community...and we all deserve better. Go Blue! 

maizenbluenc

September 30th, 2014 at 4:17 PM ^

and then go in? Supports the players, is sure to get tens of thousands of people on TV holding signs and yeling Fire Dave Brandon / Fire Brady Hoke.

Once you're in - don't buy anything. I bet Brandon measures ARPU - if Average Revenue Per User (or ticketholder) is usually $15, across 100,000 people that is a lot of money.

DowntownLJB

September 30th, 2014 at 5:20 PM ^

if a boycott is really going to be seen, felt & heard, I think it should be coordinated with a protest... a protest where a mass of people swarm the players entrance area and cheer their hearts out for the team as they are entering the stadium, but who also have all kinds of "fire brandon" signs, and then who demonstrate outside the stadium all game long.  

If you're not going into the stadium to watch the game, make it count - so the team knows it's not against them, but against the crap hand they've been left to play out by the "adults" in charge.  you might even get to rub elbows with some of the big $ donors on their way into the stadium and help them see they should sew shut the purse strings until change happens.

I'll only be in AA for the PSU game, but I would so be on board if this is happening!

BlueinLansing

September 30th, 2014 at 4:18 PM ^

cares about.

 

I was pretty miffed on the KO following Gardner's touchdown, Minnesota put 10 guys up to stop an onside kick.  With that much time left you can go either way, but its more prudent to kick it deeper.  However Minnesota was inviting a pooch kick.  Why not take a chance, if you get it, super, if not you've put Minnesota back as if you've kicked off.  But for god sakes why do you kick it in the endzone like we did.   WHY, why, why.

BlueDragon

September 30th, 2014 at 4:44 PM ^

Sounds like me when I don't give a shit about my chess, or my deathmatching, or any other sort of competitive activity that requires great skill and attention.

So what do I do? I mix things up and try new things until I find fresh inspiration. I don't try to find my "old" form, I try to find a "new" form that fits my new mood and tastes for the competitive activity in question. No one is going to shake in their boots when they see my Sveshnikov Sicilian Defense that I used back in 2004.

Princetonwolverine

September 30th, 2014 at 9:10 PM ^

I was pissed at the punt with 4 minutes left when we were down 30-14. 

We needed two scores and two 2 pt conversions. We had shown NO ability to speed up our offense or throw deep.

Our defense was also struggling so a quick 3 and out was unlikely.

Punting seemed like giving up. Even Lloyd Carr was shown walking out of his box.

gbdub

September 30th, 2014 at 4:42 PM ^

I don't think there's anything prudent about kicking it deeper. Either way, if you don't get the other team to go three or four and out, you're hosed. If you're down 7 or even 10, kicking deep might make sense. But down 16, needing at least 2 TDs to tie? The value of an extra possession is much greater than giving up 30 yards of field position. Just like with the two point conversions, at some point you need to get an onside kick. Better to find out sooner rather than later if you can.

CompleteLunacy

September 30th, 2014 at 4:26 PM ^

I think game theory is good but the analysis completely disregards an important but immeasurable factor...momentum. As a comeback team, momentum is everything. In my mind, going for 2 on the first score potentially damages momentum before you've really gained it. But if you wait until the next TD...well, all of the sudden you think "hey we have a shot here", the defense gets more nervous and plays tighter, and if you get it all of the sudden pressure is completely on the other team. Even if you don't get it, knowing you need two more scores is less daunting than knowing you need three.

Those are kinda factors your can't measure, but in a game with humans I think it would be bad to discount. Not saying Brian is wrong...I just don't think it's the only plausible argument here. It's not like 4th and 2 from the opponents 40 (go for it every time, no question).

gbdub

September 30th, 2014 at 5:45 PM ^

How momentum killing would it be to get the third touchdown with a minute left, needing the two point conversion to tie and missing it, as you're at least 50% likely to do? Momentum is great, but there's a reason you always want the ball second in OT - it's better to know what you need.

west2

September 30th, 2014 at 4:29 PM ^

dumbfounding.  Not the actual poor judgement call of leaving Morris in the game but the aftermath and the more we learn about it all.  How can the athletic department be so bumblingly inept?   Its almost a comedy worthy of SNL if it wasn't so pathetic.  

 

Hey a suggestion for coach, how about Bill Belichick?  It appears he might be available soon.

PhilipVU94

September 30th, 2014 at 4:36 PM ^

Glad to have something to take my mind off the Hoke/Brandon mess.

I agree that down 23 very late in the game, you should go for two early. However, I disagree with, "always do everything as quickly as possible." The down-23 logic only holds because it's very very unlikely that you can win if the opponent scores anything else after you're down 16. If your team somehow got down 23-0 in the first quarter, you would want to take the +EV option (in points), which for most teams is to kick it.

I guess something like late in the 3rd quarter down 23 with a decent offense (but still well below 50% to make a 2PC) could be a borderline case--it depends on if you think there's a reasonable chance you can give up more points and still win.

Somebody check my reasoning here, please.

Blueto

September 30th, 2014 at 5:03 PM ^

I believe that Brian is technically correct in game theory terms, but I agree more with the posters who point out the psycological reasons why this may not be the best strategy.

If you go for 2 on your first score and don't make it (statistically < 50/50?) Then you are still down 3 scores and you haven't really accomplished anything. If you kick the one then you are only down 2 scores + hope.

FWIW I have been watching football for a long time, and as far as I know coaches have always advocated and opted for going for 2 later rather than sooner. This doesn't mean that they have necessarily been right all these years, but maybe there is a method to their madness.

IMHO there are a lot of more legitimate things to criticize Hoke about.

gbdub

September 30th, 2014 at 6:49 PM ^

"You're still down three scores and haven't accomplished anything". Actually you've accomplished 2 important things:
1) you no longer need to attempt 50/50 two point conversions, removing a lot of uncertainty
2) you know that a field goal is useful, allowing you to do things like kick on 4th and 10 from the 20 rather than risk getting nothing.
Plus, all you momentum guys are ignoring the upside potential of going for two early and making it. There's real momentum advantage in that scenario, that, combined with the game theory advantage of missing early, pushes towards going for it early.

Space Coyote

September 30th, 2014 at 5:10 PM ^

But I actually think the case is for going for two in the game situation is easier than 15 point difference one. That's because in the situation in the game, the opposing team is going to do the same thing regardless: milk the clock. So they don't really have a benefit of more information that changes anything, only you do.

But getting down one possession (8 points) forces the opponent to play it as a one possession game rather than two. It also changes their approach to the remainder of the game. More information can both help you and help your opponent. So at that point, it becomes, in my opinion, more in flux and depends on the amount of time left (assuming these are all in the latter half of the 4th quarter) and the amount of TOs you have remaining.

I certainly agree with you on TOs. If you get a fumble and didn't use your TOs you wasted them; to add onto that, most teams will risk a throw later in the downs. The only exception is don't use one of your limited TOs after a team picks up a first down, because it only saves ~30 seconds instead of 40.

But yes, generally agree and understand you didn't wanna right a whole post on it.

A2Fan

September 30th, 2014 at 5:59 PM ^

Brian,

Props for all you do

Is it possible to do a FOIA for any Football department cameras that had field coverage from either the Press box or scoreboards which would show whether the so called angles cited in the bogus excuse actually existed as well as the positions & movement of the medical staff during this incident ?

pearlw

September 30th, 2014 at 7:25 PM ^

If everyone watches the ball and their eyes go to the receiver, then it is irrelevant to what the camera or vantage point would show. One thing that would have made it tougher to see on the field is Shane is left handed so he rolled to the left side, which was farther away from the Michigan sidleline and as a result put lineman in between the coaches and Shane. It would then all come down to watching a replay. As fans, we watch the replay on tv and at the stadium. I cant imagine the coaches on the sideline look up to the video board and watch the replay.


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CarrIsMyHomeboy

September 30th, 2014 at 6:39 PM ^

Concussion-gate is surely reprehensible, but there is NO WAY this PR storm is "magnitudes greater" than practice-gate...it'll be hard to fairly judge it sooner than 18 months from now, but it seems unlikely to even be equal.

It matters more to us, because the last controversy was a house of cards, but practice-gate had an *at least* equally loud media storm (per unit time = "first 72 hours") and had, from the outset, potential to last in the public consciousness months longer than this.

Sometimes (a rare time like this) Brian skates a complex line between gullibility, cognitive dissonance, and self-serving manipulation of his readership.

MGoStrength

September 30th, 2014 at 8:55 PM ^

Guys like Gardner, Morgan, Ryan, Clark etc. are certainly great guys. I have seen it time to time from Ryan, but no one else...where is the fire?  Players on this team (or any team) that are upperclassman, starters, and leaders should not allow players to execute so poorly without letting them know in a very direct and clear fashion that it is not acceptable.  When a guy knows what to do and simply fails at doing it leaders need to call that player out.  When an opponent takes a cheap shot at your QB leaders need to stand up for their QB.  I don't see anyone on this team who is willing to get in someone else's face and hold them accountable for not doing what they're supposed to be doing.  That is disapointing.  Not to protect the coaches, but I have seen Hoke, Mattison, and Nuss all get in players faces for not doing their job.  But, leaders also should be doing this.  These guys are great guys, but the culture of being tough, accountable, and caring is simply not there.  They accept failure and losing way too easily and no player is standing up and holding people accountable for it.  Working hard in practice and preparing well is not enough.  Maybe it's because no one is producing IDK, but it's depressing.