Postseason Expectations

Not sure what round, but I can tell you an offensive drought and bad shooting is going to be the downfall of this team in the tournament.  We also don't really have a go to guy when that happens.

Lose in the quarters in the BTT. The team takes ten minutes off on offense in this game. Depending on the draw. Sweet 16 or out first weekend.

This team is missing leadership. It’s young and aging but it’s obvious. Beilein doesn’t coach for individuals it’s for the team and that generally is a better strategy. Last night, for example, appeared to be personal for DeJulius, he could have been in for Brooks or someone to balance their minutes and brought the hate to the floor. How to play Teske has been scripted. Wagner was finesse but had an edge, Teske isn’t adding that and can be used if you get early fouls on him as he plays tentatively. Poole is net neutral as mentally he has lapses throughout the game that detract from his positives.

if Iggy stays, he will be B1G POY next year. I’d expect him to leave though. 

Neg away.

Sweet 16 team. Don't see them going much farther than that unless they get really hot from 3.

The offense is too janky to get them past the Sweet Sixteen and a very likely Round of 32 upset candidate.  

They just go too quiet for too long in stretches and it's going to cost them.

If Poole continues to be lost on both ends of the floor, I’d say ceiling is S16. 

He is best when not trying to create, although he can create. 

He just shouldn’t. His best looking shots are when he catches & shoots in rhythm. 

Teske, for all the great work early on, should not be the main PnR man. He should nestle into a corner. If Charles can go, rather than giving him the ball on the wing, he should be the main PnR man so he can roll to rim.

Teske away from basket (since it is clear M can’t post entry pass to a dude w a 1’ advantage), no swats. 

The PnR defense, is broken and exploited - I’m curious if that’s borne out in metrics or just recency bias 

Iggy has shown to be the guy who needs the ball in his hands and although his court vision lacks, he’s got enough physical strength to get where he wants and actually draws calls (hey on both ends, right?). 

JB should let this year’s team run and run. I realize depth isn’t great but this team, for what the efficiency numbers may show, isn’t good in the half court.

Everyone who has watched them knows it. The offense gets mind-numbingly stagnant. Z’s hook shot is fun, but hopefully doesn’t become the de facto bail out 

My guess is they get to the finals of the BTT, then who knows.  

As for the tournament, it'll obviously hinge on where they are seeded, but an Elite 8 run feels about right.  MSU feels like a bad matchup (at least without Matthews), and there are 3-4 teams better in the country than MSU right now.  So it's all about missing those teams, and my guess is UM will run into a UVa, a UNC, a Duke, a Kentucky sometime on that second weekend.  

This team can win any game because of its defense.  This team can also lose any game because of its offense.  Box of chocolates in my opinion, no game in the BTT or the NCAA will be comfortable for me.  They could make a run to F4 as easy as losing to a #14 seed in the first round.

When your point guard can’t shoot you won’t go far in any tournament.  Teams just sag and shut down the offense.  1-1 in both tournaments to finish 28-7. 

Survive and advance. Win the BTT and maybe get a 1 seed. Hope for a good bracket and a hot streak to end the season.

This team ultimately has too many basketball oddities to be a title contender this year. 

1. A PG that can’t shoot combined with a SG that really can’t shoot either(Granted that’s more due to erratic shot selection)

2. A Center who doesn’t fit today’s game. Assuming you aren’t AD or Embiid you have be able to either spread the floor and create for yourself/others(Mo last year/Jokic/Vucevic) or simply dominate down low(Drummond/Jordan/Gobert). Teske is a nice player but he doesn’t dominate in the paint and he really can’t shoot. I understand his % isn’t that bad but teams leave him open for a reason. And if you aren’t drawing the defender outside the paint and you air ball every shot you don’t make(Adam Dunn of basketball) you shouldn’t be shooting.

3. Horrendous depth. Guys got better late in the year but our guys are gassed. Today’s game is so fast paced you better have at least 3 reliable bench pieces. This team had one all year. 

4. No go to guy. This ones been said ad nauseum since last night so I won’t bother explaining. We had two last year now we have none. Luckily, Iggy will probably be ready to take this role next year. 

You can overcome one or two of these things but you can’t overcome all of them. I don’t mean for this to slander anyone(Especially Teske or Z as they’re both very good players in their own way). However we have several weak points on this team that good coaches can exploit. Izzo simply handed us our ass this year. If I had to make a guess our defense will get us to the sweet 16 before we bow out. Hopefully we can get a BTT title to salvage the season. We can beat anyone in the conference. Although I seriously doubt we can beat MSU this year from what we’ve seen. Either way proud of our guys on a solid year. Sadly it’ll probably be forgotten over time. 

Sorry for the long post btw lol

The comments on this site after a loss are amazing. Michigan has been a top 10 team all season and has beaten the acc and big ten champions and will probably get at least a 3 seed. But if you just read the comments here you would think they are a last four team playing in Dayton. 

One week ago this team went into Maryland and dismantled that team. Last years ncaa run featured a team that did not play great offense for every game except one. This team has an elite defense that can shut teams down. Especially teams that don’t play us twice a year every year. 

Everyone needs to chill out and enjoy the ride no matter how long it lasts. I know I throughly enjoyed watching this team this season and am confident Beilein can out coach most any team the play in the tournament. 

We also should have lost to Houston last year in the second round. Having an offense like this is playing with fire

After yesterday, it’s looking like either BPONE* . . . or Reverse BPONE*.  

This team hasn’t lost consecutive games all season and it now gets five full days of rest before playing in the last game of the night of the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals on Friday; but next Friday is the Ides of March.  If Charles Matthews hasn’t recovered sufficiently by then in order to be able to play, then I’d be worried.

Getting to the Big Ten championship game likely would mean wins over Iowa and Purdue and a chance at a two seed in the NCAA tournament.  Winning the Big Ten tournament probably locks in a two seed.  A third loss to Michigan State in the championship game might not drop the Wolverines to a three seed in the NCAA tournament, but a loss in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals or semifinals probably assures a three seed.

The BPONE in me says another loss to Iowa in the Big Ten quarterfinals and an upset loss on a last-second three pointer in the NCAA opening round to finish 26-7.  The Reverse BPONE in me says close wins over Iowa and Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament, a decisive win over Michigan State in the Big Ten championship game and a devastatingly close loss in the NCAA Sweet Sixteen after being down by more than 15 points with fewer than five minutes to play, but losing on a last-second shot against 24-year old Aubrey Dawkins and UCF to finish 31-6.
__________
* BPONE = Black Pit of Negative Expectations often caused after terrible results.  Every single Michigan Wolverines team that competed yesterday lost.  Softball lost to South Dakota, Women’s Tennis lost to Duke, Men’s Gymnastics lost to Iowa, Women’s Gymnastics lost to Oklahoma, Women’s Basketball lost to Maryland, Hockey lost to Minnesota, Men’s Basketball lost to Michigan State and Baseball lost to USC. Only one Michigan wrestler advanced to a Big Ten tournament championship match and nationally top-ranked 133-ponder Stevan Micic suffered an injury forfeit in his semifinal match, knocking him out of the tournament.

Hate to say it fellas and ladies but with this offense, we’ll be out in the first or second round. Slap me all you want but it’s the reality of it. I’d much rather have them prove me wrong than to say we’ll win a Natty, then be disappointed.

We really look like a Sweet 16 team this year. We will likely grab a 2/3 seed in the NCAA tourney. As we all know, those 3/6 matchups can be tough. But think we have a good shot to get through most 6 seeds. Don’t think we shoot well enough to get past the sweet 16. 

I still believe with Matthews we’re good enough to win the B10 - but if we do see State again can we please stop falling for McQuaid’s shot fakes all the time....the dude does it every time and we go sailing right on by 

Can anyone honestly say they thought Michigan was reaching the national title game last year when tourney started? March madness....

Michigan has two bad losses...at penn state and home against MSU.

People are really freaking out because Michigan lost at MSU?  It was senior night, playing for a co-championship, without Matthews, free throws being 30-7, a team that wanted revenge for being swept last year and having that damn distracting waffle face fan. Don’t freak out. Tough venue and odds.

Get Matthews back and healthy. Play some great defense again. Control the game. Get some easy looks down low to teske, some drives by Iggy, Poole and livers open 3s and Michigan can play with any team. Easy enough haha.

If the offense continues its inconsistent, drought-prone pattern of late, we won't get any further than the 16, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we go down before that. This is a good team, but not championship material.

We're 9-5 in our last 14 games. I checked how we ended the regular season in our two NC game seasons. In the Trey Burke Kansas-killing season, we were 9-5 our last 14. Last year, we were 10-4. I don't think this necessarily means anything for this year, but it sort of disproves the notion that you have to be red hot at the end of the reg. season to be FF material.

Would love to be proven wrong, but we’re 9-5 in our last 14 we’re not the same team that won 17 in a row, but if any team scores 70 we’re cooked! This team will win games 65-60  62-57 but any team that scores 70 it’s an L for Blue. Not a team that is efficient on offense at all!

I think we lose early in the tournament. The team is way too inconsistent. That’s fine, this year isn’t year. The team is good, not great, and we all got our hopes up after the early season successes.