High chance of rain on Saturday
November 19th, 2018 at 9:42 AM ^
I get all of my information from the most reliable source in meteorology -- mgoweather.
November 19th, 2018 at 9:58 AM ^
Forecast for Columbus is for 53 and overcast, rain on Monday so I have no idea where the OP's forecast is coming from.
November 19th, 2018 at 10:15 AM ^
How about the 1950 Snow Bowl in Columbus? November 25, 1950: M 9, tOSU 3. Weather people accurately predicted that storm, and the authorities came close to postponing the game.
One of the better stories to come out of that contest was about Vic Janowicz, one of the Buckeye's star players (and Heisman Trophy winner). Before the game the coaching staff told him to put some sticky stuff on his hands so he could grip the ball. So he did. Then they said, "Naw, put these fur-lined gloves on instead. So he did. Then Vic found that with those gloves on he couldn't grip the ball. But when the trainers tried to remove the gloves, they couldn't because the sticky stuff basically glued the gloves to his hands. The staff had to cut the gloves off, and Vic played the game with tufts of fur all over his hands. Didn't bother him kicking a FG though, which proved to be the Buckeye's only score.
M's Chuck Ortmann punted 24 times. M's scores came on two blocked punts, one for a safety and the other recovered by M in the Buckeye endzone for a TD. GoBlue!
November 19th, 2018 at 10:40 AM ^
It's not rain. They are predicting Buckeye tears. Flooding expected in the Columbus area.
November 19th, 2018 at 10:41 AM ^
Rain or shine, this is a must win. Silence the critics!
November 19th, 2018 at 11:04 AM ^
I'm bored, so I went casually looking around for data-driven thoughts on weather and football. A lot of people overstate things with statistics regarding sports or overstate the "coaches are so DUMB" to a hilarious degree as many people do when attempting to apply population statistics to individual cases but looking at the data is still the right first step.
Post 1
Background: This post does a decent job outlining how difficult it is to really talk about precipitation and football data right now, with things such as "raining in the first and third quarters and half of the fourth quarter" not really being recorded in publicly available data and other caveats (coaches adjusting play calling mix -> reset in expected play outcomes e.g. if you only pass once a game you might expect a really high YPA due to the surprise factor). Think along the lines of MSU-UM last year and "passing while we've got a break from the rain." Not a lot of data and not high quality data.
Link: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-the-factors-week-11-2017
Conclusions: The heavier the rain, starting with light rain, the worse a passing offense is by completion percentage and YPA. Teams also pass less than they usually do.
Post 2
Background: Actually an expansion on the above post, this post dives a little further into how rain impacts performance in the passing game and some numbers on how running games are impacted.
Link: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-the-factors-week-12-2017
Conclusions: Again we see completion percentage and YPA drop, and some data supporting a theory that this is due to it being harder to throw and it being harder to catch. Interestingly, we also see that yards per carry and avoided tackles per carry for running backs go up the more intensely it rains, though they also fumble much more often.
Post 3
Background: This at first brush looks like it might be a perhaps poor application of complicated statistical models by Stanford undergrads in a sports analytics statistics class in a powerpoint, not a paper, so nothing to write home about as at best we're missing a lot of context. They do present the detailed level outputs of their models if you want to look. This presentation was actually referenced by a WaPo article by their sports analytics person. Does use fancystats as input which could make conclusions more meaningful.
Link: https://web.stanford.edu/class/stats50/files/Houghton-BerryParkPierce-slide.pdf
Conclusions: Statistics are hard, so papers are much better than powerpoints. Their results show rain and turf helping a home team score more and an away team score less, and increasing the amount of more points a home team scores than an away team, all with various levels of statistical significance. Also, all of that home-vs-away might just be meaningless from an actionable conclusion standpoint if the fancystat inputs don't account for generic home field advantage.
November 19th, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^
The only forecast that matters is the one mgoweather gives
November 19th, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^
If it rains that gives Michigan a distinct advantage. Their run game is way better than ohio State. And if Haskins can’t throw the ball with confidence he’s pretty much useless.
November 19th, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^
Which team would benefit from clement weather?
November 19th, 2018 at 3:07 PM ^
If the forecast on a Monday calls for rain on Saturday, it will not rain on Saturday. I’ve been keeping track.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:03 PM ^
It will rain sometime on Saturday in Columbus, but still too early to isolate to game time. There is full model agreement on this event and within 5-6 days modeling these types of systems is pretty reliable.
I don't believe Ohio State has played a bad weather game all year so it could make things interesting.
November 20th, 2018 at 8:09 AM ^
This is more or less tailgating weather news...
Looks like most of the models show heavy rain off and on up to and possibly over .5 inches from midnight through Saturday around 11am, give or take an hour. It looks like just cloudy at this point by gametime...but we are still 4 days out. Rain is going to come though it's just "when".
Again, this is less about the game and more about wanting to drink beer by a fire and watch the game outside :)
As a side note we've had a total crap weather fall this year. Every dang saturday it rains.