ESPN fudges a numbers game to argue UCF beats more quality opponents than Michigan this season
Opinions are like, you know, well everyone has one. So ESPN's opinion is not otherwise noteworthy except for the fact that the numbers they use to argue that UCF is more deserving that Michigan, are wrong. Since its a shot across Michigan's bow, here you go. (It's a ways down in the article):
No, UCF hasn't played a brutal schedule, but the Knights now have wins over Memphis (7-4), Temple (7-4) and Cincinnati (9-2). If they beat USF next week, that will be four wins over teams that finish 7-5 or better. That's as many as Notre Dame has and better than that of Michigan (3)...
Michigan currently has wins over 4 teams that will finish 7-5 or better, unless you believe that MSU has a chance of losing at home to Rutger next week.
Then since we are comparing next week, if UCF wins (assumed here) lets also assume Michigan wins out, right? (Otherwise we aren't in the discussion).
To win out Michigan will have 6 wins over teams 7-5 or better vs UCF's 4. (not to mention the quality of those opponents).
10-2 OSU
9-3 PSU (plays Maryland next week)
7-5 MSU (Plays Rutger next week)
8-5 Northwestern (Plays Illinois next week)
8-5 Northwestern (Assuming we win out, we play and beat them twice)
8-4 Wisconsin (Plays Minnesota next week. They might lose this, but still come out 7-5 or better).
One could also add that UCF will have had 2 "quality" road win by 1 point, over Memphis and whatever happens vs USF.
Michigan will have have had 4.
Additionally, if Western Michigan beats NIU at home on Tuesday (a game they have a good chance to win), Michigan will have 7 wins over teams 7-5 or better vs UCF's 4.
Let's not call it 3, please.
November 18th, 2018 at 12:04 PM ^
WMU has collapsed. NIU will win that game.
November 18th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^
This thread is a feeder for what many of you lament. I understand the desire to celebrate a national championship like we as fans did in 1997. It was flawed then and now. The team controls their route to the B1G Championship. Anything after is a bonus. Win out and celebrate the greatest team since 1997!
November 18th, 2018 at 2:32 PM ^
I think there is a large chasm between having a split championship because the coaches gave Osborne a retirement gift and calling yourself a national champion when nobody else recognizes you as one.
November 18th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
Look, UCF had their moment last night. Good for them. I'm sure Maury and Connie enjoyed themsekves before, during, and afterwards.
But we're in crunch time now. Only serious candidates should apply.
Six teams. Four spots.
Just win, baby.
November 18th, 2018 at 2:55 PM ^
I'm here for the Maury and Connie comment. An eight team playoff is inevitable..
November 18th, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^
They don't play a grueling B10 schedule in varying weather conditions.
November 18th, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^
Please, DO NOT CLICK ON LINK. Click bait regarding UM is made because of UM Nation’s large, ravenous online presence. Do not give the silly and dumb the clicks they’re pandering for.
November 18th, 2018 at 12:27 PM ^
See, it worked. They got you and the rest of us to click. That means $$$$$$$$ for ESPN
November 18th, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
ESPN is the new Chatsports
November 18th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
UCF has gone from everyone's darling to just the worst team to root for in record time. Last year's team was a legit top-4/5 team; I think they could have beaten Wisconsin on a neutral field. But anyone who thinks this year's team would stay within 10 points of anyone in the top 6 is insane.
November 18th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
I would love...no, LOVE to see UCF vs OSU in a bowl game. If we can't get UCF in a bowl game vs OSU, then how about Washington State? How about Oklahoma? I'm ok with any of these three. With a pretend defense, 75+ points is a reality. What a beautiful finish to their year.
November 18th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^
I would love to see Alabama lose vs Georgia, not make it to the playoff, and be put against UCF in a new years day bowl.
But the chance of any of that happening and especially the combination of that happening is, well, not high.
November 18th, 2018 at 12:41 PM ^
I believe their Strength of Schedule is around 80. So,NO there is NO comparison. UCF is overrated. Probably would be competitive with 15 through 25.
November 18th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
You’ve wasted more time on critiquing this than they honestly put into writing it, and certainly more than it’s worth.
Go Blue. Win The Game.
November 18th, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
UCF is good in their league...but they would be a mid level B1G team at best.
November 18th, 2018 at 2:22 PM ^
They would have been competitive in the West, but not in the East.
November 18th, 2018 at 1:15 PM ^
Um a chance to play these aholes ?
Ohio Refs give Osu close win
Oklahoma wins out finishes 4th in CFP
Osu finishes 5th goes to Rose Bowl.
Um #7 next team picked first as at large non tie in to NY6 game
UCF #9 represents Group of 5 picked last to play UM.
November 18th, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^
Per ESPN's own Computer Rankings - the FPI:
If both teams win out - here are quality wins...I am counting quality wins out to being ranked #100, because ESPN is selling #92 ranked USF as a quality opponent.
#4 Michigan has wins over #7 Ohio State (please), #8 Penn State, #24 Wisconsin, #25 MSU, #40 Northwestern (twice please), #45 Maryland, #57 Nebraska, #60 Indiana, #95 WMU, #96 SMU.
#26 UCF has wins over #48 Pittsburgh, #49 Cincinnati, #50 Memphis, #64 Temple, #92 USF, and #99 Navy.
We might have 7 wins better than UCF's best win per ESPN's own FPI.
November 18th, 2018 at 2:18 PM ^
We are paying attention to a troll job. The best thing we can do is ignore it.
November 18th, 2018 at 3:19 PM ^
I’m so sick of hearing about UCF. There high school schedule is the only reason they never loose. Join the SEC or the ACC and you will be a door mat for Alabama and Clemson.
November 18th, 2018 at 3:41 PM ^
Best not to anger the reigning national champs
November 18th, 2018 at 5:41 PM ^
ESPN became dead to me when they ran the Tom Osborne "retire with a championship" campaign in '97, culminating with audible cheering from behind the scenes when they announced their final poll live early in the morning following the Rose Bowl.
I don't think I've watched SportsCenter since that morning. Doubt I've missed much.
In the meantime, their assessment of the rigors of the AAC schedule... sounds like their analysis hasn't improved in the last 21 years.