OT: AL Central Predictions?
August 20th, 2009 at 3:47 PM ^
August 20th, 2009 at 3:46 PM ^
August 20th, 2009 at 4:01 PM ^
August 20th, 2009 at 3:28 PM ^
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August 20th, 2009 at 3:45 PM ^
August 20th, 2009 at 4:39 PM ^
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August 20th, 2009 at 9:35 PM ^
August 20th, 2009 at 5:01 PM ^
August 20th, 2009 at 9:04 PM ^
Pitchers on the Tigers current roster have a 3.64 ERA. (Ni, Lyon, Jackson, Verlander, Seay, Rodney, Perry, Porcello, Miner, Galarraga & Washburn) Dolsi has a 1.69 ERA, and he's the next call-up.
The Tigers have, at this point in the season, a pretty decent bullpen, especially when you consider that Miner is at 4.8 out of that group, and he's usually long relief. I don't have the numbers on what Galarraga's post April ERA, but its ugly (5.16 in total)
I think you see the Tigers win at least 55 percent of their games to finish out, and if that happens the White Sox would have to go at least 25-16 to finish out just to tie the Tigers. Here's there Schedule Baltimore (3 games) (2 wins) @Boston (3 games) @New York (4 games) (6 wins) @Minnesota (3 games) (8 wins) @Cubs (1 game) Boston (4 games) (11 wins) Oakland (2 games) @LA (3 games) (14 wins) @Seattle (3 games) KC (3 games) (18 wins) Minny (3 games) Detroit (3 games) (22 wins) @Cleveland (3 games) @Detroit (3 games) (26 wins) In order to get to 26 wins, you are basically winning or splitting every series against division leaders and rivals... I don't see the Sox having the starting pitching to do that or to pick up sweeps against the lesser teams in that list if they do drop a series here or there...August 20th, 2009 at 9:52 PM ^
August 20th, 2009 at 10:34 PM ^
August 21st, 2009 at 10:22 AM ^
August 21st, 2009 at 6:32 PM ^
August 21st, 2009 at 6:32 PM ^
August 21st, 2009 at 11:53 PM ^
ERA predicts future ERA rather poorly, with a staggering RMSE of 2.32. In other words, a pitcher with an ERA of 4.00 in the even-numbered sample typically had an ERA ranging anywhere from 1.68 to 6.32. That tells us hardly anything at all. Our best estimator, xFIP, gives us a range of 2.22 to 5.78, much better but still not particularly helpful.Basically, most predictors of future ERA are flawed, so while your statement has validity regarding ERA, it is misleading. I will cede the point that ERA is certainly not the end-all-be-all of statistics for inference. I would certainly take CC Sabathia, Jon Lester or Jamie Shields over Washburn right now...
August 21st, 2009 at 9:03 AM ^