Member for

10 years 4 months

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
07/05/2018 - 8:13am I was living in Mexico,…

I was living in Mexico, enduring the start of the Rich Rod era when I finally signed up.

04/14/2017 - 4:16pm Apparently the plural of

Apparently the plural of octopus is actually octopuses, not octopi as it is not derived from Latin, but rather Greek, with octopodes as the more pedantic acceptable spelling.

03/09/2017 - 9:49pm I see nothing wrong with this

I see nothing wrong with this

02/05/2017 - 11:44am Kahneman has a book,

Kahneman has a book, "Thinking Fast and Slow", that everyone who wants to revisit this topic should read (or at least be familiar with other sources of cognitive bias regarding failure to properly weight baseline probabilities in making decisions / inferences)

10/31/2016 - 5:55pm My comment isn't very

My comment isn't very helpful, but you'd need to specify what print size you are looking for. 300 dpi for a 4x6 is fairly easy to come by.

10/16/2015 - 1:48am I'm in Adelaide this weekend

I'm in Adelaide this weekend and trying to find a way to watch the MSU game Sunday morning.  Any suggestions?

08/18/2015 - 9:05pm And also with those who know

And also with those who know what they're talking about. The Kardashians have prestige among the common man. Who cares? Williams has prestige amongst graduate admissions, as there aren't 10 better schools in the nation. It also has a 3/2 program with MIT, if engineering is in your plans. Or you could just go into finance, like the Vice President of Goldman Sachs did after he graduated.

08/18/2015 - 8:16am You will also see the

You will also see the occasional state final in soccer or district championship in baseball. A LH pitcher from Cranbrook plays for U-M currently.

08/18/2015 - 12:36am Just curious, packing up to

Just curious, packing up to move and found some letters from Jack Sanders this evening. '77? The song "Forty Years On" will soon be apt.

08/17/2015 - 11:19pm By any chance did you play

By any chance did you play baseball?

08/17/2015 - 11:07pm Cranbrook actually has great

Cranbrook actually has great sports due to the breadth of offerings, they certainly don't excel at the major boys sports however (besides hockey)

08/17/2015 - 10:50pm No, but they will be sharing

No, but they will be sharing a room with a Penske, Illitch, Romney, et al...

02/13/2015 - 1:53pm Care Commentari

You'll want to use the vocative case, ala "E tu, Brute"?   If my memory can stretch back 20 years, it would be Care Commentari.

(and yes, I know my username is grammatically incorrect)

12/05/2014 - 5:59pm From the stats I've seen, his

From the stats I've seen, his peripherals are actually better than his numbers: FIP, xFIP, SIERA

11/30/2014 - 11:21am From a few DCDS athletes I

From a few DCDS athletes I know,  it is not uncommon for coaches to interact with the financial aid committee to ensure packages are sufficient to attract and maintain those athletes.  The notion that financial aid is solely need-based is a farce.  

11/08/2014 - 9:27am Ran a Monte Carlo with your numbers.

Probability of San Fran having a 9-7 record or worse is ~ 79%

<= 8-8 is ~53%

<= 10-6 is ~95%


06/08/2014 - 1:51pm Gerson was Fantastic

But I am old now and have no idea if she's still there.

03/25/2014 - 12:39pm Log transform, then linear

Log transform, then linear comparison? A top seed can earn~ [-3.8,2.2] wins above expectation. A bottom seed [0,6] wins. There is a bias for lower seeds that is not accounted for.

12/12/2013 - 11:56pm Not just at you, but why is

Not just at you, but why is this a good pickup? Guy hasn't thrown more than 40 some innings in three or four years and his era was what? 5? With 26 walks in 42 innings? Veras had an option for 1yr 4 mill. 3.0 era, in 50 % more innings, better K/9 and bb/9 (obviously). I don't get it. Closers are asking two years 10 mill per, 1yr at 4 is an undervalued asset. You couldn't flip him for a Krol straight up?

12/12/2013 - 11:46pm Matte was DFA'd after the

Matte was DFA'd after the Davis signing

11/30/2013 - 4:34pm Based on your other comments

Based on your other comments , I think you might not be disagreeing respectfully.

10/27/2013 - 9:05am Upvote for actually

Upvote for actually referencing the rule book. This call is not controversial. It is a fairly routine call that just happened to be at the end of an important game. Also the base path isnt the foul line. It is set by baserunner (Rule 7.08 e.g) And even though it has no bearing, it was most likely intentional. You dont try to get up by moving your feet away from the ground.

10/22/2013 - 12:11pm The premise "getting to the

The premise "getting to the line late means that it's harder for a defense to adjust to *you*" cannot be true by itself.   Options always have positive value. (mathematical fact: options are bounded by a value of zero.  If exercising the option would have a negative value, you would simply choose not to exercise it.)  Getting to the line early gives you the option of hiking it as soon as the ball is set and it is legal to do so.  This length of time is the same regardless of how much time is on the play clock.  It's quite possible that running up-tempo would have a negative effect on expectation, but  it would have to come from some other mechanism, such as more time to make a better play call, poor communication, taking time away from technique work to practice executing the up-temp offense, etc. 



10/21/2013 - 9:44pm Out of curiousity, I'm

Out of curiousity, I'm wondering how many of the 200 or so 2-pt attempts per year are from muffed holds/snaps on the 5000+ PAT attempts.  

10/16/2013 - 6:16pm The 2007 Rose Bowl disagrees

The 2007 Rose Bowl disagrees with you.

07/06/2013 - 9:37am Here's hoping he duplicates

Here's hoping he duplicates what Andrew Miller did for Yale.

06/27/2013 - 12:31pm Sports are indeed the rake.  

Sports are indeed the rake.   Also, services like have regional blackouts, don't they?

I've been incrementally cutting the cord.  Comcast charges $18 bucks a month as an HD technology fee on top of having to subscribe to an upper-tier to even have the HD channels in the first place.  

Mohu leaf is a nice antenna.  My wife depends on time-shifting now after having a DVR, so there are a lot of low cost options for tv tuner cards that allow the recording of over-the-air broadcasts.  An old Apple TV has a nice form factor for use as  a streamer (installing XBMC) That is a little more technical though. 

Like others have mentioned, between Netflix and Hulu Plus, you can have as much streaming  content as you want.  My wife actually prefers to tele-binge on shows rather than watch weekly, so she doesn't mind getting into a show a few years after it airs.

If you don't live in flat-land (for an OTA signal), there's a company called Aereo that recently won a court challenge that it could stream OTA content.  I think it's available for $10/month in New York.  It may have moved into other markets, I know it was planning a move to Chicago.  

06/10/2013 - 6:58pm Teams forfeit their slot

Teams forfeit their slot money for not signing a pick. The danger would be in signing their high picks under slot (re: Jackson Lamb)

04/20/2013 - 8:01am In a 15 run game, the ump

In a 15 run game, the ump would expand the strike zone to a double-wide bath towel. Basically if its not bouncing, its getting called a strike.. When a team cant throw strikes in that kind of zone, there truly is nothing the opposing team can do. You don't bunt, you don't take extra bases, and you most certainly don't take pitches, unless you like watching the world's slowest merry-go-round. Maybe tell your kids to work on their opposite field or hit-and-run approach? (without actually sending runners, obv)

07/14/2012 - 12:15pm Justin,
The advice you've


The advice you've just received is spot on and you will do well to heed it. 

1) While I agree that keeping the focus on pull-ups is key for the PFT score, everything else you do athletically will focus on endurance.  Squad runs, individual runs, the obstacle course, Fartleks, Upper-Body Development et al will all value endurance over pure strength.  The only time you will be doing 20 pull-ups is on the PFT. 

2) Not much to add.  Find some hills.  Quantico is not flat. Once you hit Da Nang, you'll know it if you've only been training on a track.  Focus on all the other stuff first, but know that on squad runs, you won't be running with your natural stride.  If you are tall, this may take some getting used to, I know for me it took awhile for me to adjust. 

3) Nothing to add.  I don't know if it's changed, but they'll issue ICB and Jungle boots, each have a different feel.  Get used to one of them before you go.

4) COSIGN!  Many of the CrossFit affiliates are owned / operated by former service members and will likely support your training at a significant discount.  The UBDs and Fartlek runs are fairly analagous to CrossFit workouts.  Also, it's probably one of the only places you'll find a rope.  You'll have a 30 ft rope climb on the confidence / obstacle course.  (Charlie Company, Third Platoon!) 

5)  Do as much studying as you can before hand.  25% of your "score" is athletic, 25% academic, and 50% leadership.  Don't forget the Code of Conduct as well, don't even think about showing up without knowing the rank insignia.  Call your Platoon Sergeant "Staff Sergeant" (He'll most likely be a Gunnery Sergeant) and you will be a marked man from day one.  "Good Morning Platoon Sergeant Gunnery Sargeant Blaine!".  All of your others are to be addressed as "Sergeant Instructor - Rank - Name".  Do this right on the first day. 

6) Obv. 

7) Again, most CrossFit gyms will be outfitted with one.  Also get used to doing knee-ups on a rope.

8)  My interpretation of the Sergeant Instructors is that it is their job to place you under as much stress as humanly possible to evaluate your potential as a leader of Marines.  There are three of them and ~60 candidates in the platoon (to start).  They have rotate their focus through select candidates to accomplish this.  If you stand up to the scrutiny, they will move on.  If you don't, they will try to make you DOR.  As zone left suggests, you want to stick out for leadership and nothing else.  Also, when you're filling billets, they will get on you more for indecision than imperfection.  Remember "80% solution implemented swiftly and aggressively".


9) You will mess-up and be writing essays.  "Failure to Follow Simple Instructions" is a favorite to hand out.  Be smart and pick a theme from whatever you're being taught in the courses.  It will help you study while you are completing the mundane task. 

10) Stay up late with your squad / platoon.  The most common problem will be close order drill.  If you're OCC you will have enlisted Marines, find one to help you.  Get on this the first three days when you aren't doing anything. 

11) It's probably cheating, but a couple items that will help...

a)Bring extra 1" stencils and build a jig for your name.  You will be making thousands of name tags on athletic tape.  Start making them the first few days and just tape them in the back of your OCS binder.  In everything you do, get you're shit together and then help the rest of your squad / fire team do the same.

b) Get used to calling yourself "candidate". 

c) I'm having second thoughts about the rest of these, because coming up with them really helps the team building, but remember they're looking for team cohesiveness / uniformity rather than adherence to some OCS manual. 

I still have the OCS candidate course materials and can mail them to you, if you think they'd be of help / have time to review.  But again, out of all the advice given, I'd say Zone Lefts #2,3 &4 are the most important.   Best of luck!



11/11/2011 - 2:46pm Are you going PLC or OCC? If

Are you going PLC or OCC? If you need any advice, let me know.  I still have all of my candidate manuals and can pretty much remember every second of my experience there.

11/11/2011 - 11:22am Mr. Fick

According to his bio on One Bullet Away, he was captain of a national championship cycling team at Dartmouth.  While the picture of a D1 football player does fit the mental model of a Marine, surprisingly enough, when I went to OCS in Quanitco it was the football players who ended up taking the silver bullet during PT, while the harriers and wrestlers were running circles around everyone.  (Humps were a different story)

As for former D1 players, how about Heisman trophy winner, Rhodes Scholar and eventual Brigadier General Pete Dawkins?  Nate Fick reminds me of Pete Dawkins.  Someone who's just better than you at everything.  34 years old.  CEO of the Center for New American Security. 

11/07/2011 - 10:46am Have to disagree

Not so much with your hypothesis, that football isn't about probabilities, only with your evidence. Drawing a conclusion about probabilities from a single observation is, save for outcomes with very low probability, not very sound. 


09/17/2011 - 1:24pm It's because only 8 out of 30

It's because only 8 out of 30 teams make the playoffs, unlike the other pro sports where you have 12 and 16 teams.  It still is an actual accomplishment in baseball (especially historically, when there were only 4 or 2 depending how far you want to go back)

(Edit: This was in response to Shredders comment on page 1)


09/17/2011 - 1:14pm This isn't true.  The Tigers

This isn't true.  The Tigers will play the Red Sox / Wild Card in the ALDS if they finish ahead of Texas / AL West winner.  As they won every series against Texas, they also hold the tiebreaker.  So they are effectively three games up on Texas right now.

08/25/2011 - 5:55pm This isn't true.  The Rangers

This isn't true.  The Rangers are only up 2.5 on the Tigers for the second seed, and only 2.5 on the Angels, which is closer than "approaching close".  2.5 games is close when there are over 30 left to play. 

08/24/2011 - 5:54pm Right now, the Tigers are 3

Right now, the Tigers are 3 games back of the Rangers.  I would love to see Game 1 and a potential Game 5 of the ALDS in Detroit, especially with the potential for Verlander to start both games.

08/24/2011 - 5:40pm "Robbed" of Trayvon Robinson,

"Robbed" of Trayvon Robinson, indeed.  I really do not understand that deal for the Dodgers.


08/23/2011 - 7:12pm I agree with the easy

I agree with the easy schedule down the stretch comment.

If the Tigers can go .500+ (18-17) the rest of the way, one of the other two teams would have to go on a .650+ tear to finish out just to catch the Tigers. That's 24-12 for a White Sox team that hasn't hit very well, and 24-13 for a Cleveland team that hasn't pitched well outside of Masterson. I don't see that kind of run being likely.

So can the Tigs play .500 ball the rest of the way? You've got three more games against Tampa, 6 against Minny, 6 against KC, and 4 each against Oak and Balt in addition to the aforementioned Cle/Chi games. You've also got Verlander taking the hill every 5 start.

Baltimore's the worst team in the American League, record-wise, followed by KC. (And yes, I do remember the last weekend in '06) Both Minnesota and Oakland are still bad teams right now as well.  

08/23/2011 - 7:03pm Chicago and Cleveland have

Chicago and Cleveland have eight games left against each other.  Detroit has six games left against both Chicago and Cleveland.   That's alot of opportunity to either distance yourself from, or come back to the pack.  The next "biggest series of the year" will have to wait for a whole 10 days when the White Sox come to town. 


08/23/2011 - 6:41pm Just curious as to why the

Just curious as to why the probability of an above 500 team beating a below 500 team in a single game pretty low?


08/21/2011 - 5:25pm I agree with everything

I agree with everything except #1 as jmblue points out.  Porcello was coming inside hard on the left-handers.  Look at Hafner's at-bat.   I don't know that it was obviously a bush-league play on Porcello.  That said, if he was throwing behind him because of watching the foul ball, its just as bush as Weaver.

It was unfortunate as you say, that both pitchers had the inner-half taken away, and both proceeded to get rocked.


08/21/2011 - 12:37pm I didn't watch the game, but


Damn you, word verification!





08/21/2011 - 12:36pm I didn't watch the game, but

I didn't watch the game, but I'm a big Fred Roh fan after publicly standing up for Michigan's program and knowing that he reads this blog.  I hope it was just an off-game for Jake, because I enjoy having the Roh's as part of the Michigan family.







08/21/2011 - 12:01pm "Comfortably Ahead in ERA"

"Comfortably ahead in ERA" isn't exactly true.  Even at this point in the season, Weaver goes out and tosses a 6 2/3  with 5 ER, Verlander tosses a 8 / 1 ER and he's trailing in the ERA conversation. While I don't expect Weaver to, as I think he's only had one game since May giving up more than 4 ER, the miniscule numbers they are both throwing up there and the small sample size mean it just isn't a comfortable lead.

05/07/2011 - 2:20pm Just for the record

Given the time you quoted, Clay would have been at best a 4.6 forty time 50 lbs ago.  The 55m dash time quoted would also have put him over 3 yards behind denard at the finish line. 

04/30/2011 - 10:46am There is a reason...

That has nothing to do with the NFL or the Lions.  It's called jobs.  People are moving out of the state because of jobs.  Something that really isn't an issue for someone who, you know, is coming as a result of an employment opportunity.    I do agree that the Lions aren't an especially attractive destination for a top notch DB, I just don't really agree its has anything to do with the reasons your everyman is leaving. 

04/28/2011 - 9:23pm I'm probably the only one

I'm probably the only one who was hoping for almost anyone except Prince Amukamura.  I just haven't been impressed with his actual game performance.  That being said, I don't really get Nick Fairley with Williams and Hill on the roster.

04/23/2011 - 11:36am Gordie,

I couldn't agree


I couldn't agree more with the assessment.  He did exactly what he should have done.  Even the first home run to Quentin was on a 3-2 count and a 4-0 lead.   It was a fastball that was very poorly located, but so what? You don't put guys on-base in that situation.  In the seventh, with a 6-1 lead, you aren't being cute either.  You are trying to eat innings and save the bullpen in the opening game of a big series.  If they go yard, the only thing that really gets hurt are your stats...

03/29/2011 - 7:29pm Nice Argument, but factually incorrect

The link to the maizedcolored glasses post, and the subsequent arguments referencing are nice, but factually incorrect.  Always check your citiations.   

The actual selection criteria can be found here:

"Among the resources available to the committee are complete box scores, game summaries and notes, pertinent information submitted on a team’s behalf by its conference, various computer rankings, head-to-head results, chronological results, Division I results, non-conference results, home, away and neutral results, rankings, polls and the NABC regional advisory committee rankings."

I agree with the logical validity that IF a tournament selection was made solely on objective criteria, an unambiguous resume, then nothing VCU has done to this point would validate their inclusion.   The antecedent is not true -- there are subjective criteria available to the committee-- therefore we can say nothing about the consequent, i.e. VCU's worthiness.   Jay Bilas is still an ass-hat

The stated first priority of the committee is to select the 37 best at-large teams (not the 37 best seasons or "resumes").  Bayesian inference strongly suggests that VCU is and probably has been worthy of being in the tournament.